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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I could quibble some, on the rationale getting down to the list of final-add candidates (my own handicapping puts Perez as the last arm added). But when looking at Stashak/Littell/Graterol I concur completely that they belong and the rest do not. I don't even consider Gibson, as I think he's just too depleted. And I concur with 12 arms and therefore 13 bats, as there is not a single pitcher on this "outside looking in" list I want to face to even one batter in games that matter, whereas my final add among the bats has a way or two to beat the other team in the right circumstance (and I don't have a 14th bat who I'd consider bumping the pitching staff down to 11 for one series). The 40-man really is this depleted. It's not a question of leaving off deserving candidates. We're scraping bottom to find 25 who are even worthy.
  2. ashbury
    I'd like more of a track record on him, facing major leaguers, but the decision has to be made on whatever record there is. I'm concerned about batters on bad teams going after pitches outside the strike zone, in case we're facing a team with patient batters with better pitch recognition. So I'm glad when he strikes out the side against the Royals, but I'm not convinced.
  3. ashbury
    Willians is literally last on the Twins in on-base percentage at .296. Cave's around the middle.
  4. ashbury
  5. ashbury
    Also, there are no more good opponents this season. Be prepared to remain unimpressed, I guess.
  6. ashbury
    No offense to Sergio but he doesn't have any bullets, just Nerf darts, so what does he know?
  7. ashbury
    You can look at his game log on baseball-reference.com, and sort his games by which innings played, and the pattern for his full games is quite favorable. That makes it fun. It doesn't make it meaningful. "A small statistical sample, as with flattery, is like cologne water, to be smelt, not swallowed." -- Josh Billings, sabrmetrician in the 19th century I mean, just to be clear, we're in agreement, just saying it slightly differently.
  8. ashbury
    It was a fun stat, and I ran with it as much as anyone, but it depends too much on a small sample of games relative to the full season, for my taste.
  9. ashbury
    Polanco for me.
  10. ashbury
    If you go to his game log on b-r.com https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=rogerta01&t=p&year=2019 and click twice on the DR (days rest) column, this sorts his games with 0 days rest at the top. You can give him a pass for one or two worst outliers, and it's still pretty visible that he's been a different pitcher than his normally spotless self Or, you can sort on the Earned Runs column, and see that in the 11 games where he gave up any, 4 were with rest and 7 were without rest, which is basically the opposite of that ratio when he didn't give up a run. This way of looking at it reduces the impact of one bad game, because you're not looking at averages, but just counting "good game" and "bad game". Last year was a little less extreme, but of the same general pattern. I wouldn't be surprised if this were typical for relievers, and as always with relievers you are right to be wary of Small Sample Size, but I don't think this ought to be ignored.
  11. ashbury
    "Liked" if only because I'm a big fan of Jorge's demeanor.
  12. ashbury
    "Acceptable" being also a charitable description of my imaging skilz.
  13. ashbury
    Just looking at his monthly breakouts... Snyder started well then hit a slump at exactly the wrong time, otherwise I think he would have gotten a mid-season promotion to high-A. Then he turned it around, and produced the season he did. It all comes down to timing, sometimes. It's only his second year in the pros, so there are competing motivations how quickly to move him. He's both old (calendar) and young (pro experience).
  14. ashbury
    Ambiguous phrasing.
  15. ashbury
    Not to brag, but I give John Bonnes the cold shoulder every time he reaches out to contact me. Because I'm just that big a deal.
  16. ashbury
    Well, so, I guess we're not there yet. Masking agents like diuretics are banned, and thus suspension worthy, but they are banned because of their potential to be used to hide PEDs, not for their inherent harm or competitive edge. You're right that we haven't seen transcripts, leaving us only to infer, but the knowledge that an arbitrator reduced the suspension length suggests to me that he or she became convinced PEDs were not being masked. Because the default would have been to just let the suspension stand unchanged. Proof, no. It's only supposition, but I don't think far fetched.
  17. ashbury
    Agreed, and it may come down to purely philosophical views or even just semantics. I'm pretty adamantly anti-PED. But if the aim of the sport's drug policy is to reduce the harm that they perceive PEDs to bring, and if all that is being missed is PED usage infrequent enough to not be caught by periodic testing, maybe that suits my purposes. But then, I spent a large portion of my career in numerical computation, dealing at times with "what really constitutes 'zero'?", on a computer. So I'm not inclined toward absolutes.
  18. ashbury
    You been saving that up for one of those "why, I oughta" moments?
  19. ashbury
    The negotiated protocol involves a re-test, if a masking agent is found in the urine. I suppose the timing could be just perfect, so that the diuretic happened to flush out the last detectable bit of PED, but the odds are that the re-test will uncover something. If he's taking a diuretic even after the PEDs are long gone, well, now we're into angels dancing on the head of a pin territory, and are back to the diuretics themselves being rightfully banned and therefore a stupid risk for no competitive benefit.
  20. ashbury
    They did that? Now the numbers start to make some sense!
  21. ashbury
    You're going to feel pretty dumb tomorrow when you read on ESPN that they fired him, just to maintain this amazing stat.
  22. ashbury
    Yeah, I heard that somewhere. Source.
  23. ashbury
    All right, here's my question: given Javier's first season back, from surgery on the non-throwing shoulder, with rather poor results at the plate, are there grounds for optimism with Buxton for 2020?
  24. ashbury
    "Ensigns Wade, Miller, and LaMarre, I know that none of you were expecting this. I'm sorry. I'm gonna have to ask you to grow up a little sooner than you expected. Warp five." / edit - I know, I know, LaMarre is 30, Miller is 27, and even Wade is no spring chicken anymore at 25. Humor me.
  25. ashbury
    What are you talking about? I've been here as a participant since almost Day One.
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