ashbury

He's rather good.

Back from a four-day weekend. What's new here?

JJ returned to action on May 25 against Beloit, and with a bang: he homered in his first at bat. The three-run blast snapped a 1-1 tie. He later earned another RBI on a single, en route to a 12-3 laugher.

And if a guy isn't offered many of those situations, his point total by this metric is going to lag other players who might not actually be as good. As you go on to say later on, the sum needs to be normalized to something else in the denominator. But you have to be careful, as a player on a really bad team (with a tiny denominator) might be especially subject to small sample size variation. I found this stat defined at baseball-reference.com:

It's an interesting stat, but IMO it still is swayed too greatly by what your teammates do before and after you. If you hit a 3-run homer that raises your team's chance of winning a close game by a lot, it depends on those two guys getting on base in front of you - otherwise it's a solo homer that raises the chances by a much smaller amount. Ditto for you hitting a walk-off RBI in the ninth to win 6-5 - without those other 5 runs that same RBI didn't affect the win probability that much. Ditto for having a powerful lineup around you, also with solid pitching, that typically wins games 8-2 - or a weak one that is typically on the losing end of those scores - your contribution may not add much to the overall probability of winning, through no fault of your own. Still, it has a kernel of merit to it that other opportunity based counting stats like RBI don't.

When I saw the subject line I was going to say "no batter has ever hit .500 for a season", but Madre Dos chiming in made me at least think twice, and I repositioned the tone of this post a little.

His shoulder hurts?

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/ Win Probability Added sounds like something you would be interested in.

According to sources, it's a nagging wrist injury. Not so serious as to have DL'ed him, but it's been lingering.

Alex Muren is off to another good start in 2015. For the Ft Myers Miracle he has appeared in 14 games covering 24.2 innings, with an ERA of 2.19. He continues to allow few base runners (1.054 WHIP) and few home runs (just 1 this season). If he continues at this pace, I'll be disappointed if he doesn't get the opportunity to try things in Chattanooga before the season is over.

Alexander (Alex) Richard Muren Born: November 6, 1991 (age 23 this season) Birthplace: Ramona, California Drafted in the 12th round of the 2012 June draft, signed for $100K(?) slot School: California State University Northridge Height: 6' 3" Weight: 200 Position: Pitcher Throws: Right Bats in theory: Right Pitching arsenal: fastball (high 80s, touches low 90s), cutter, change http://www.milb.com/images/571973/t509/180x270/571973.jpg Alex Muren was my Adopt-a-Prospect player in 2012 when he was drafted, so it seemed fitting if I took on those duties again. It's fun to compare then and now. His listed weight is 5 pounds higher now - I'm sure it's all muscle, just look at him. It's fair to say that Alex was not a highly regarded prospect when he was drafted - a multi-sport player in high school, he was never a full-time pitcher in college until his final year as a junior - and he has flown pretty much under the radar in the time since, residing strictly in the bullpen. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, usually somewhere below 6 per 9 innings. However, that does not mean he hasn't put up some very nice ERAs, with a seasonal WHIP ratio that has never exceeded 1.133 and only very few home runs. 2012 - Ft Myers (GCL) 1.46 in 24.2 IP 2013 - Cedar Rapids 2.85 in 60 IP 2014 - Cedar Rapids 2.89 in 56 IP 2014 - Ft Myers (FSL) 2.45 in 18.1 IP His fastball has a lot of sink - something he apparently has learned in the time since his college scouting reports - and this induces many ground balls. Fun fact: he has never committed a balk as a professional. (Perhaps that comes with permitting few base runners.) Alex is being brought along slowly, and begins 2015 in Ft Myers again. I listed him among my 30 Twins prospects to watch this year, as there is nothing in his resume to indicate he can't eventually make the grade and have a productive major league career. http://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-7r72j4g/1/M/i-7r72j4g-M.jpg

I don't see Alex Muren in this list, so I'll take him. I can't let him remain an orphan - he was my adoptee in 2012 when he was drafted.

Vielma's bat has perked up a bit since last report, at least until tonight. An 0-3 brings his most recent 5-game BA back down to .278, with 1 double, 1 walk, and 1 HBP - for about a .683 OPS in this span. There were only 2 strikeouts in those 20 plate appearances. It's not enough yet to really move the needle on his season numbers, which hover around a .500 OPS. Baby steps, baby steps.

JJ has not appeared in a game since May 15. Unless someone pipes up to say I overlooked some news, I'll have to question the usual suspects for information.

Six innings tonight versus Peoria. Three hits, two walks. A solo home run accounted for one of the two runs scored against. Only two strikeouts were notched. He left with a 3-2 lead, and that's how the game ended, leaving him with a 2-2 season W/L record. All in all, just another day at the office for Felix Jorge. This was his seventh start of the season. I wonder if this steady string of excellence means a mid-season call-up to Ft Myers is coming?

Used that way, those ERAs would be in the 4's, for those same pitchers, for various reasons.

Considering that Perkins faced very tough batters in his one inning of work, I am fine with the strategy. If you are going to use your closer for two innings in a situation like this, you should bring him in sooner. But if you are committed to a one-inning strategy for him (a topic for another discussion), then on the road you can do it like Molly did without suffering any drawback. You'd have Blaine or Brian or JR facing that lineup for the save instead, as the game played out.

All four farm teams win, plus the big club. A good day.

Another series win. With two-out-of-two being a little harder than two-out-of-three.

... out of Bastardo.

ChiTown, do you want to administer the anti-jinx beatdown, or shall I?

Sounds like you are looking for Win Probability Added. It won't be +1.0 for a solo homer in the top of extra innings, but it surely raised our chances from slightly below 50-50 to well above.

The nature of his hit is not affected by his foot speed. That was a stand up double. And he needed to slide to earn it.

Plouffe legs out a stand-up double.

Called it. (An at bat ago. And I didn't really call it. :) )