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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I predict: biggest 2016 surprise is the Twins signing Byung-Ho Park.
  2. ashbury
    Nice summary, Nick. Now for the quibbling: Plouffe for Lind. It's not easy to do, but we'd be replacing Trevor with somebody even slower on the basepaths. Plouffe for a young Atlanta closer. Seems like a lot to give up a position player for a bullpen piece, even if he throws gas. Maybe go for both prospects mentioned, and if we have to add a C-graded prospect to even things out, so be it. But, as already mentioned, a veteran like Plouffe might not be what a full-rebuild team like the Braves wants. Plouffe to the Padres for anybody at all. I weep for Trevor's career if he is banished to San Diego. His tenure as a viable hitter will be over. Plouffe to the White Sox. The first couple of those pitching prospects have strikeout numbers that, were they touted prospects within the Twins own system, there would be a hue and cry by observers over pitch to contact or whatever. But the latter two on the list look probably close to untouchable, aren't they? Plouffe alone isn't going to fetch either of them. Of course I'd be fine with a 2-for-1 deal, to include any young'uns not named Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Kepler/Gordon. But it isn't happening unless we massively overpay.
  3. ashbury
    It will count as a surprise to him as well, I mean compared to his current expectation. He's quoted via Charley Walters as probably wanting to play “as long as I can,” implying even after his current contract. http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_29086735/charley-walters-twins-joe-mauer-isnt-looking-too
  4. ashbury
    Eeeenteresting. A little strange that it would flip-flop from one season to the next, if there's something fundamental behind the difference. But it is a pretty strong difference. Would be a good question to ask the guy himself, to see whether he has any thoughts about why.
  5. ashbury
    We have a firm foundation upon which we can agree. The question I was trying to address was whether or not it was a significant factor affecting his K/9 rate. I presented a reason why it would not be. Do you have something to suggest that it is, and is worth taking into account when evaluating Gray?
  6. ashbury
    So how many strikeouts do you think Sonny Gray missed out on by pitching in the Coliseum?
  7. ashbury
    Nice fangraphs article on foul catches, coming from a different angle but containing useful-looking data: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/foul-ground-home-field-advantage/ If I'm reading it correctly, covering two seasons there were roughly 200 foul catches made by the A's, versus a typical number nearer to 100 for other teams at home. Confirming the park bias is that visiting teams also caught fouls at a similar rate. My takeaway from the table there is that the Coliseum fosters about 45-50 more foul catches per season than the average ballpark (I could have misunderstood something - I don't quite feel like contacting the author for confirmation. ) That's a lot, more than I realized even though I knew of the park's reputation for a large foul territory. As is conventional wisdom, this number seems large enough to account for a significant portion of the park's pitcher-friendly reputation and stats. However, because a foul catch not made doesn't result automatically in a strikeout in the remainder of the at bat, it gets iffy to chalk up much of a pitcher's K/9 rate to this factor. If say 22% of AL plate appearances in 2015 resulted in strikeouts, maybe the entire team lost 10 strikeouts all year due to excess foul catches, and divvying that among the starters looks like an insignificant factor to anybody's K/9.
  8. ashbury
    Frieri needs to return to San Diego if he wants his ERA to bounce back, IMO.
  9. ashbury
    My biggest 2015 surprise was that the team cobbled together a winning record, despite being outscored slightly. Even if you dig deeper, the surprise continues: they scored nearly a league-average number of runs while compiling a league-worst OPS+ of 90. I was very late to accept this would be a winning team, expecting even in mid-September some sort of collapse to deny them a .500 record. For 2016, I could easily go with a similar surprise to most people, if they slip below .500; I think it's quite possible they could make progress on several fronts and still look worse due to the breaks evening out. I'm paying too much attention to the 1984-87 Twins, I guess. For a positive surprise, how about Trevor May finding his way back into the rotation and putting up good numbers the rest of the way.
  10. ashbury
    The only way it happens is if the Mets are still feeling a severe financial pinch, and want to trade away the starter with the most service time (Harvey I believe) before he gets expensive, and cycle in a new high-ceiling starter with no service time to replace him. That can't be one for one, so additional talent is required, e.g. Dozier. And I'm not sure the Twins go for that, but then adding a catcher on the Mets' end requires more from the Twins, and I'm not sure Hicks is enough. All in all it seems hard to match up, even if the Mets are motivated. And I doubt they are.
  11. ashbury
    You didn't ask him about his unusual name. Family legacy ("Andro Cutura IV")? Or is this already covered to death, elsewhere?
  12. ashbury
    Sano is currently not an MLB adequate third baseman. He has some strengths (comes in on a slow roller and throws smartly while off-balance), and some glaring weaknesses (erratic on hard smashes to either side, not good at tracking popups). I believe he can develop into an adequate third baseman, probably by the end of 2016 (just in time for playoffs? I hope I hope I hope). Could even develop into a good one later on. Hopefully it's important to him, otherwise he'll be 1B-bound before we know it. The problem with a move to an outfield corner is that his current weaknesses will also show up there. Cans of corn, he'll handle. Coming in on a single through the infield and firing a bullet to the cutoff man preventing an extra base, great. Tracking a deep fly ball, I'm not confident about at all (I'll trot out a favorite TK line, "let's keep the 360s to a minimum"), nor a line drive that's not hit right at him. And a booboo in RF turns an out or a single into the batter-runner standing on third. I don't expect this experiment in winter ball to lead to anything. I'm perplexed they are sacrificing some more time at 3B to engage in it.
  13. ashbury
    http://www.cartoonistgroup.com/properties/bizarro/art_images/cg56183815bab8a.jpg A recent cartoon on the funny pages.
  14. ashbury
    Particularly by the home team. Home teams on average score more runs per game than the visitors. What recently came to light is that this advantage is almost entirely composed of a first-inning difference.
  15. ashbury
    Forget it, he's rolling. http://i.ytimg.com/vi/fLZubB22edw/maxresdefault.jpg
  16. ashbury
    And here is mine: http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/lt/lt_cache/thumbnail/187/img/photos/2015/02/11/c5/b0/emily_litella.JPG Oh. Never mind. As long as he doesn't cost us a player, it makes sense. As the article put it, though, I suspect he'll accept an equivalent offer from St Looie. He's replaceable, in my book. As would be any defense-first outfielder whose defense never struck me as being overly reliable in CF, and is run of the mill in a corner.
  17. ashbury
    Ugh, mea culpa. I could have gone on to say, I probably have about the same view as Ryan seems to, about the advisability of trying to acquire an established ace. Most such opportunities aren't worth it. Only when I had a team already at the 90-win plateau, would I consider it; I wouldn't do it to help get to that 90-win level. The 2016 Twins don't profile to me as that team. I just was bothered by his preference to re-position the discussion to use the other common meaning of the term, namely the best starting pitcher on the team, AKA "de facto ace". Every team has one, doesn't mean anything. In his position, I probably would attempt the same tactic though. Why get bogged down re-arguing every year about something he has no intention of doing.
  18. ashbury
    You ended his quote here, but what he went on to say kind of bugged me. That waters down what most people think of as ace, to be innings eater. I loved Radke, especially his grit that final season, but on most teams he'd be their innings eater - someone you feel "pretty good about" and will keep you in the game, but isn't expected to shut anyone down on even a semi-regular basis. I imagine Ryan would love to develop an ace, but he'll never go out and acquire an established one. Acquisitions will always be innings eaters, judging by the way he pivoted on that question.
  19. ashbury
    A cave man somewhere, would be my guess.
  20. ashbury
    How dangerous does it get, if you happen to have two guys on the team who say that?
  21. ashbury
    Who is this Duensing you speak of? I see no one by that name on the 40-man roster. http://www.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=min
  22. ashbury
    Love the title page. Kudos! Now on to page two... I'll let you know.
  23. ashbury
    All tautologies are tautologies.* Point well-taken that organizational strength shouldn't creep in. Still, hypothetical trading seems like a good starting point. How about, which player would return more in a trade with an average GM? That's my baseline guess, modified only if I think a player is severely under- or over-rated generally. * Source: link
  24. ashbury
    Hope? In the month of November? Fool me 53 times, shame on you; fool me 54 times, shame on me.
  25. ashbury
    Too small - he'd wear down. Also, he wouldn't have the proper downward plane on his tosses back to the pitcher. Get Aaron Slegers behind the plate and up to the majors, pronto!
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