Doctor Gast

The idea when you need to right size is to cut fat. But last offseason Falvey's idea is to cut heart & soul, (the chemistry wasn't the same this year) & keep the fat plus add more fat to replace the vital missing parts. Now he wants to continue by cutting muscle while keeping fat. He has grown quite fond of the fat because it's his fat. FOs like to leak & hype up their ideas via social media. I hate the ideas that are floating around because they are cutting muscle (their value will continue to go up). Trading Castro, Ryan, Lopez, Duran & even Vazquez we are trading away muscle that'll drastically change the Twins' outlook for the worse. Yes, Vazquez is expensive & I'd like a better & cheaper solution but we don't have one. The alternative is disastrous. What's the fat I'm alluding to? The fat that has been hyped up that their trade value was very high last season but has since become significantly lower & is still dropping, that needs to be traded as soon as possible. One is Ryan Jeffers. He's a good hitting backup catcher who given sufficient rest can hit well & be an average defensive catcher. But when put into a resemblance of primary duties, 1st his defensive crashes & later his hitting wanes. Last offseason he was worth around $35M surplus trade value by BBTV, he's now worth $13M & if Vazquez is traded Jeffers would crash (as before) and be lucky to be worth $5M. A promising. underrated, defensive, MLB-ready young catcher should have been obtained to become our future catcher a long time ago. Jeffers will become a FA in a couple of years & Boras is his agent. As Falvey's hand-picked & only option for primary catcher, we have no option other than signing him to a very outrageous extension for a backup catcher! Another is Julien. His future was never at 2B, we had much better options there. His trade value peaked & was comparable to Jeffers & he was not needed & should have been traded to fill in holes. The league has the book out on him & has taken away his HR advantage so he needs to reinvent himself as a contact hitter or be another Sano which he no longer profiles as a 1Bman. He still has retained most of his hyped value, so he has to go before his value tanks. He is one of Falvey's failed-hitting philosophy darlings, who still find it hard to trade but he definitely needs to be sooner the better. Gabriel Gonzales was really hyped & his prospect trade value was high. He'll never make the MLB as a Twin, trade him before his value tanks. Paddack is one of Falvey's trade mistakes that was extended to somehow justify his actions. This one I do agree with. A lot of. money has been spent to keep him around. We can find a cheaper replacement & he wouldn't be missed. There is some talk about Larnach for a RH counterpart. LH hitters are a premium so I'd hold onto him unless I'm blown away with a deal. Also about Miranda & Kiriloff. I definitely hold onto them because they are great hitters who should finally get a bona fide shot at 1B. We cannot replace Castro, do you know how hard it is to find a player of his caliber? A lot of have been asked of Martin but to ask him to replace Castro is too much! Martin needs to be broken in easier than what he has been asked to do w/o adding more. Who'll sub at SS when Correa & Lee are down? Severino has played many positions not because he's flexible & good at them but because he has failed at them & is mainly asked to play 1B. People loved his bat, but I have my doubts that he can achieve what he has before now the pitchers have adjusted. Castro should have been extended last season, Now he'll be more expensive but a lot less than Jeffers.

NY & LA have big money to throw around in FA, money is not a problem. Where mid-small markets, they have to focus on player evaluation, development, initiate necessary trades & if they have any money left over use it to extend their own valuable players. If mid-small market FOs don't have the ability to initiate trades they want more money to waste in FA.

I agree with you Top Gun. I'd love to give Jax an opportunity to prove himself as a SP and IMO there's a good chance he could become a darn good one. A high-leverage set-up man isn't an easy position to shove someone into if they haven't been properly prepared. You could set them up to fail which I'd like to eliminate. I'd like the Twins maximize more the high-leverage candidates from last season. If they had, I think Jax would feel better about leaving the BP. By chance he doesn't succeed as a SP he'd return to the BP with greater conviction knowing he tried.

Yes, Vazquez's is expensive, but that's the price you pay when you don't develop your own. We signed Vazquez because we desperately needed defensive catching because it was obvious that Jeffers was overwhelmed when given the primary duties. When Vazquez is gone we are faced with the same problem we had before we signed him. Again looking for an expensive average FA catcher to shore up Jeffers with modest results. Vazquez has only been a band-aid to cover up our real problem that'll only get worse. Do you think we can trade for a decent defensive catcher who can cover for Jeffers? Most teams that have them want to keep them. I doubt that Falvey can wrangle one away. IMO catching is our biggest problem, when you rip away that band-aid things will get ugly fairly fast like in '22. 1B- will finally work itself out now that we allow our own a chance. Miranda & Kiriloff should be given the chance at 1B where they can settle in & learn the position, thrive & establish themselves & 1B for the Twins. In the long run, Lewis could be figured at 1B. We should have good WAR production finally at the position. 2B- Julien has improved his range at 2B, That he's getting to balls that normally bleed their way past him before. But he's not making the plays. He's still low on the 2B totem pole where Lee, Castro, Martin & probably Lewis is ahead of him. Julien's problem is the pitchers have taken away his HR edge, where he needs to reset to be a different type of hitter that won't hit a bunch of HRs if not he'll challenge Sano in SOs. 2B has never been his future & now he no longer profiles at 1B. So the only solution is to trade him while he still has some hype. 3B- Some combination of Lewis, Lee, Miranda & Castro. We are sitting pretty at 3B. SS- we did well here in WAR this season with Correa, Castro & Lee. Of course, the longer Correa can start at SS the better. CF- much like SS we did well in WAR this season with Buxton, Castro & Martin, Here again, the longer that Buxton can start the better, But w/o Margot we have a much better sub in Keirsey which'll be better by far our situation all the way around. LF- Larnach, Castro, Martin, & Keirsey RF- Wallner will be the mainstay there. Larnach, Castro & Martin as depth. We have only Buxton, Castro & Martin as the only RH hitters but we'll be fine the few times we face LHPs and we also have Helman if needed. SPs- Same as last year but more experienced, we need to keep our rotation together, forget about trading them. except maybe Paddack & Topa if we need to. There are others I'd trade before them. RPs- Pretty much the same as last year We have come into this offseason worse than last offseason, which is sad. We need to get better every year not worse even with the budget crunch. That puts pressure on the FO to economize. stop with frivolous FA salaries, keep the valued core together & make the right trades finally.

Good points Cody. IMO Jax is a viable option for easing back into a SP to possibly replace Paddack. But for this to happen, I'd like to see our set-up role more established. IMO Duran has done better in the closer role & should be left there. Sands has made great strides in the role but is he ready to take on the primary role? If Alcala was used properly he'd have proven himself but he was not which leaves some doubt. Stewart is great when healthy but can he be counted on? I have doubt on Topa's ability & durability to be a set-up man. Varland & Paddack wasn't used enough this season to know how they'll be in the BP. Because there's so much uncertainty in the set-up role, I'd not take the chance of moving Jax off the position.

I'm with you Greggory, WAR doesn't tell the whole story. If you hit a bunch of HRs, you'll have high WAR (no defense or hitting are necessary) otherwise you have to be exceptional in defense (especially in a prime position) or hitting to amount to anything. Let alone the very important intangibles that are not included. Castro's intangible flexibility in playing multiple positions well & switch-hitting is huge in filling in where he's needed when someone is injured, that's why he's the Twins MVP. Valuable players are someone you hang onto, not trade away to cut salary. You find other ways to do it, like not spending on frivolous salaries & making sensible & necessary trades instead of going to FA. Cutting salary wasn't to blame for our bad season because trades could easily be had to fill our holes. But the decisions that were made to do it, were critical in the chemistry & gaps in positions. But where cut in salary hurt, was not extending players like Castro last offseason where it'll cost us more in the long run to extend them or even losing them (which will continue to contribute to the team's decent).

"getting production out of guys you haven’t heard of is sort of their calling card" Many analytics called CLE lucky because they hit in the clutch in close games. IMO clutch hitting is an art form that can be acquired & CLE has acquired it, there's no luck involved unless you don't help develop it. CLE knows how to develop & manage their players. Except for their constant abuse of overusing their elite BP. It has amazed me that they held together throughout the season w/o major injuries. much less the postseason. It was evident that they were gassed during the postseason which stymied their advancement in the postseason. It seems to me that nothing much changed with the Twins so I expect CLE, DET & KC will be a handful and will be harder to play against than this year. Unless somebody falls into Falvey's lap, I expect the same result.

Bryan was on my mind too, when I saw what his next brother was doing in the postseason. Hope the Twins learned from Martin's wasted years & try him out in LF as soon as possible. IMO Bryan's day is coming if they don't force him to hit HRs. Get him to be a good hitter then let him naturally develop his power.

BA for one at that time.

Great memories & great truths. Cito Gaston went with his gut & put seasoned veteran Molitor over Olerud at 1B when analytics said go with Olerud. And it paid off. Heart has been taken out of the game, and replaced with stats. The mid-'80s Twins had great chemistry, MacPhail didn't try to change the chemistry by removing one & replacing him with another but added to it. That chemistry brought us WS championships that magical feeling that many today Twins fans have no idea what it's like & how it happened.. Some had a taste of it in '23, Too bad the chemistry was changed.

True, the chemistry was much better in '23

I applaud you Matthew for bringing our speed problem to our attention. But FA isn't the answer nor trading for a Margot. Stick with our cheap young in-house players. W/o Margot, Martin & Keirsey will be great & I'd like to see Eeles get a chance. Twins have been too slow moving off the slow, big bat, poor glove model to a more athletic, line drive, good glove model. Has Falvey changed his faulty philosophies? He has offered up a lot of sacrificial lambs but the ones that should be gone are still here.

Not relying on their potential at 1B is part of the reason why the Twins are not in the playoffs.

No friend, as I stated in my original statement. Miranda & Kiriloff's potential has proven itself over & over again when healthy. 1B is a good place to recover from their surgeries because there's less moving around & less arm action to limit soft tissue injuries that accompany surgeries. Keep them at 1B so they can fulfill their potential. That's contrary to social media hype but it's the true translation.

This year the league has the book out on the HR-focused hitter (in contrast to line drive hitters) this season a decline of 415 HRs & 1B is loaded with this type of hitter thus we see a big drop off in production this season. IMO we'll continue to see a drop off in production at 1B throughout the league for years. The Twins have focused on this type of hitters in the draft & development for years & it's funny that those hitters never made to the MLB. Now that the book is out, the Twins have to change their focus on hitters & how to develop them. If Falvey had the money he would have spent it on MAT & Rhys Hoskins. Fortunately, we didn't have the money. From now on we need to forget about this type of hitter.

We have tremendous potential at 1B in-house, so again it doesn't make sense to go outside, especially with the salary crunch. 1st we have Miranda & Kiriloff, both profile well there, the only problem is injuries. If allowed to be focused at 1B, that'd help the process of recovery from surgeries & improve their defense. We have Severino on the 40-man, McCusker or someone like Lewis that might be transferred from 3B. I was a big advocate of trading Julien. Not because I didn't like him but because FO wasn't going to play him at 1B, his future wasn't 2B, his trade value peaked & we had big needs to be filled. Now the league has the book on him, they have taken away his HR edge & he'll be a SO king unless he adjusts totally to a different approach. Although his range has improved at 2B, his stats have dipped because he's not making the plays. He has always been low on the 2B totem pole but now it's obvious even to his fans. Julien should have been traded last season at a high trade price but now he no longer profiles well at 1B because his HR edge has been taken away & it's more obvious to most that he shouldn't be considered at 2B. He's no longer should be considered as part of the Twins' future & should be traded while he still has some hype value. I really have great expectations for both Miranda & Kiriloff if finally given the opportunity to be the mainstay at 1B. Don't trade either of them until then & don't try to fill 1B again outside the organization.

It makes a lot of sense. I can't see any of them really wanting to keep the Twins & a lot of them would want the mula. Especially now that they let the cat out of the bag, you can't really get it back in. I have a question for my brothers. If the Pohlads sell the team quickly can the new owners negate the Falvey deal? & undo some of the stuff they have done? IMO selling a house has nothing to do with selling a pro-team. In every transaction I know of, they always try to limit & in most cases cut costs to make the deal more reasonable. Besides if the Pohlads backed out now they'd be tarred & feathered.

Many underrate the utility position. LAD is really the only one that correctly values that position. Castro is a super utility player which means he's very athletic & can play SS & CF very well that means he can play anywhere except maybe catcher & SP. That brings extreme depth to all positions which is very valuable. No one can take his place; not Buxton, not Correa, not Lopez, not Jax. He outplayed his contract & he outplayed his position. A utility player is not supposed to lead the team in games started but Castro did so astoundingly more than the MVP candidates that were ranked higher by TD. He was stretched beyond the limits he should have played, especially at SS & CF. His efforts helped keep MN respectable. With his flexibility, durability & production, IMO deserves to be the team MVP. Martin, a rookie sparkplug who hardly played CF before was abused by the Twins. His time in CF should have been limited but his athleticism proved to be better than anyone else at subbing for Buxton. Martin should have been handled with kit gloves but that was given to veteran Margot, who was used extensively to face LHPs (start & PH). Being overburdened can quickly drain the spark (which the Twins desperately need) out of anyone. With Margot gone, Martin can assume his rightful spot & (LHH) Keirsey can assume his rightful spot (that Martin played) & expect good things from them. With all that said, Martin still can't take Castro's place. Trading Castro would produce another big hole by FO that can't be filled internally & be more expensive to do so externally plus taking a hit chemistry-wise. The answer to our problem isn't FA, it's trading responsibly to fill holes & with any extra money, extend our needed players. The problem is that Castro should have been extended last season, now that he's meeting his expectations he'll be much more expensive.

You trade Duran only if you think you won't compete. Tanner was traded at the deadline for a bunch of prospects because MIA was not competing. I agree with Mindbinder you don't trade Duran at a discount when he slipped a bit, We need him especially because IMO he'll come back to help fill out the top of the BP. IMO our BP isn't that great w/o him.

I like Helman but IMO we have more than enough utility players that can play SS & CF better than him to be excited about.

CLE, DET & KC were impressive. All 3 advanced to the semi-finals. CLE bye, DET swept BAL & KC beat many's favorite HOU. KC was the one who I cheered the most for. Going 1-1 at NYY, going home where they do what they do to win whatever that was but didn't do against the Evil Empire. IMO the Twins had a better core coming off play-off success but FO let us down by not trading adequately for necessary needs & making us worse. Now CLE, DET & KC are coming off better play-off success & riding high. CLE is a better ran team. DET is a better-managed team & KC has gotten lucky with the few FAs they got. CLE will get their injured rotation back, DET & KC will try to get better & we got Falvey, Baldelli, Tingler, Conger & Watkins

I agree with everything you said but I'm ready to move on from the Pohlads.

I really hope so, Seth. & I hope that they don't fall back to the old philosophy. Baldelli said that he got after the players for not following "the plan". That's what I hate, vagueness, what is "the plan"? Being vague we can't evaluate what he's saying, he expects us just to blindly accept what he's saying without understanding exactly what he's saying.

I had my doubts about Popkins when he was hired. Popkins had a sparkling HR production on his resume, so I thought he'd be just an HR-driven coach that fit into Falvey's HR-crazed hitting philosophy. I was assured that he wasn't & I've seen that come to fruition by what he has done helping hitters to get away from that approach & how quickly he had turned around the team early this season, from HR focused ABs to having good ABs. On the other hand, Borgschmite was let go because of the team's high drop in offense in the 2nd half. Popkins was Falvey's sacrificial lamb to take the fall for his faulty hitting philosophy. IMO Borgschmites is worse than Popkins. Another Falvey's yes-men to support his philosophy.

Trading cost-friendly Pablo makes no sense. Trading Pablo only makes sense if we are rebuilding. But then we have to trade both Correa & Buxton, if we can't trade them it'd be counter-productive. Pablo can be up & down during the season while adjusting. But in the postseason, I wouldn't want anyone else.