tony&rodney
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Everything posted by tony&rodney
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Twins and Tigers Interested in Kenta Maeda
tony&rodney replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Don't bet your house on the Twins over the Tigers. Keep it small. -
Atlanta was unlikely to go 3/$75M and so St. Louis always seemed like the landing spot for Sonny Gray. Thank you Sonny for the fun. We shall miss him. The price for pitching is really high. Gray could have reached 4/$100M if he was open to every option out there. The Twins don't play in that arena of big contracts for pitchers. At least not to this point in time. As far as finding a replacement via trade, it is the same conversation regarding which top young prospect and current young player on the 26 person roster are you and the Twins willing to trade. Lewis and Lee are almost certainly the first two names that other teams mention.
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- sonny gray
- david festa
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I hear you. Consider that Kepler has only a year left on his contract, the return from a trade is iffy, the Twins are hurting for outfielders, and that Max has always been, including his worst seasons, pretty much average using OPS+. Put another way - what would you give up if you were trading for Kepler (specific to team and player)? If the Twins can be a better team through some transaction, I'm not opposed to any trades. Max Kepler has been the definition of a solid regular in every year with the Twins. People expected him to be a superstar and never accepted average from him.. His half year of excellence in 2023 was even greeted with suspicion. I'm not sure what folks or you expect. While we can see Emmanuel Rodriguez as a player who could reach or surpass the level put up by Kepler, he isn't likely to be ready yet. I like Wallner quite a bit, but he still has some major holes in his game to fix. This is where the Twins are with Kepler right now. He and Polanco are the most underrated Twins in several decades.
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Anyone bemoaning the past would benefit from looking to the present and thinking of how past decisions will influence your ideas that in turn create a difference in the future. Keep your ideas in the present looking forward with knowledge gained from the past as a guide. Nobody can reverse what already happened. The manner in which Twins fans complained about Joe Mauer still shows up in comments on national articles, painting Twins fans as dimwitted and bereft of baseball knowledge. This just surfaced recently when all of the articles came out on the Hall of Fame voting this year, a ballot that includes Joe Mauer. Don't be that person.
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Gray to sign with Cardinals: MLBtraderumors
tony&rodney replied to Cornholio's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
No surprise at all on 3/$75M. Sonny could have reached $100 million total if he had been open to all teams across the entire country. The price for starting pitching is high. No way should the Twins even consider trading guys like Festa or Raya in this marketplace. -
Last season I called for playing time early and often for Julien and Wallner. They were quite raw and the gnashing and gnawing of teeth early on was opposed to these two. My only point here is that I like to see a few rookies get playing time sometimes, but also understand there will be ugly growing pains. Correa, Solano, Kepler, Taylor, Castro, and Farmer were the only Twins to appear in 120 or more games last season. Veterans are almost always a key part of a winning team. Solano and Taylor are now gone. It is quite a gamble/stretch to believe that Wallner, Larnach, or Gordon will easily surpass much less equal the play of Kepler as a corner outfielder. Can it happen? Yes, of course. The team budget is unknown but stated as being more in line with income or fancy words to that effect. We just saw Kenta Maeda sign for roughly 2/$24 million. There is about $120 million already accounted for and it seems like $130 million is close to a ceiling or even high. This is important because it means that adding guys for $15-30 per year on multi-year deals is unlikely. Trading Vazquez may happen but it would be very surprising if it cleared up any more than $5 million. Kepler going creates a hole that is going to be tough to fill. Who is available at that price? The Twins seem to be in a bit of a pickle as far as adding players. Guys like Hoskins, Turner, and Gurriel Jr. will be costly. Giolito may command up to $20 million. Falvey is scrounging the rosters for ideas where the Twins can exchange low cost players from their roster for players who fill a niche for Minnesota. Maybe, just maybe Miami would be a partner for some of our younger guys who need an opportunity, but Miami won't add much salary. Most everyone doubts that Falvey will swing big using the best of our young players and prospects. The July trading deadline may bring a future chance to bolster the roster. We shall see. Few teams across baseball will listen to bulk or veterans additions in return for good pitchers when their own teams suffer a scarcity of arms. Thus, teams like PIT, LAA, CIN, and others are unlikely trading partners. Somehow it seems like deals will be with guys like Larnach, Sands, and Winder. The hot stove is cold now. Hey, next week all of the big heads get together for cocktails and who knows what?
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Seattle frees up money and third base
tony&rodney replied to tony&rodney's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't think anyone should dispute your point, although there have been some weak offers put forth. Remember that the Twins traded a batting champion just last year. The question is whether the Twins feel another trade of that magnitude is worth the risk. Pitchers are always one injury away from disaster, much more often than position players. Is Lewis off the table? -
That price tag is fairly well set at $25 million per year or up to $43 million per year on a short term contract. Savings of $10 million from trading Max Kepler would not be enough to sign a #4/5 guy hoping for a rebound. What is your basis for your thinking to add "an Ace type pitcher?" I mean, many of us on Twins Daily like the idea, but there is not a single precedent of the Twins signing a top free agent pitcher.
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Yikes. I hope no one here jumps to a conclusion that Seattle is focused on Polanco. The Mariners will want the best player they can acquire for the return they are willing to offer. Seattle has a ton of options other than Polanco. Perhaps the poster saw this as a fit and titled it a little aggressively. No real foul. Enthusiasm? It does seem (to Twins fan who want to add pitching) that Seattle and Minnesota are a fair match but their front offices have to have those conversations and find a mutual agreement. Robbie Ray gets an extra $1 M if traded and is also due $73 M over the next three years. He should be available half way through 2024. I would be less surprised to see the Twins sign Yamamoto. However, we should all remember .... anything can happen or never say never.
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Anything is possible, almost any player available, if a team is willing to send a pile of people in return. One thing I wonder for nearly every suggested acquisition is how the other team views their team. Can the Angels (insert any team here) part with Sandoval (insert player name)? Another obstacle is money. Or is it? If it is problematic, then signing a free agent that requires big numbers, such as Snell, Montgomery, Yamamoto, or Bellinger is out, Trades that return high priced players is then also difficult to unlikely, such as Juan Soto or Robbie Ray among others. The challenges are real. Who are the Twins willing to part with among their prospects and young players? We have discussed trading all of Polanco, Kepler, Vazquez, and Farmer. Some have suggested trading Buxton and Correa who have full no trade clauses in their contracts. Even Caleb Thielbar has had his name put out to save some money. So whenever I read about a thought of acquiring a guy like Sandaval I'm intrigued by the possibilities as well as the odds and cost.
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I guess I'm responding to/thinking about the idea of trading Vazquez and paying half his salary in the process, only to need another backup which means another $4-5 M in salary. That is a bit of a merry-go-round. Catching is hard to put in place. I look for options all the time. I was all in on paying way too much for J. T. Realmuto, which wasn't going to happen - that was understandable. I was hot for Gabriel Morena and proposed a ridiculous package of Twins for him, which was likely too rich for a rookie. And now if we look to move away from the steady Vazquez, there could be real problems. I do wonder if the offensively challenged catchers, such as Maldonado and Hedges aren't fair choices until one runs into something better through accident or a trade or a draft choice. That in turn makes me question whether it might be a decent idea to see what can be acquired for sending out Ryan Jeffers. Then ... i think it might be best to stand pat at catcher. These are ideas to throw around.
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Gary Sanchez is the leading free agent catcher. Catching is so much more valuable than the print clippings they receive. If Vazquez gets traded, who gets signed? Austin Hedges for $4 M? The Twins used two catchers at the MLB level last year. I wonder how often a team gets through an entire season with only two catchers?
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Five Trades to Add a Starting Center Fielder
tony&rodney replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thank you for the work on developing ideas for trades. The suggestions for acquiring Dylan Carlson, Jo Adell, and Mickey Moniak are all reasonable. The first two are not options from my side.- 21 replies
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- jo adell
- jack suwinski
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Seattle frees up money and third base
tony&rodney replied to tony&rodney's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
There are so many unknowns, which is a topic I have posted before. What does Seattle want? A number of people have pointedly stated that neither Gilbert nor Kirby would be available in any trade. This may be so, but again we just don't know. Last offseason MLB was surprised that the AL batting champion was available. We have all been surprised by some of the trades we see. I'm keeping an open mind on the possibilities. -
De ja vu on the Max Kepler conversations .... not that this is a bad thing. We have all been here before. The entire range of options have been laid out and commented on in a reasonable enough fashion. I'm guessing all of these ideas have been floated within the roundtable led by Falvey as well, both last offseason and in the present. Kepler may have had a couple of down seasons before his resurgence in the last half season, but I would caution anyone against making judgments on his character or work ethic. Athletes do not come with light switches or dimmers. The path of preparation is not similar for any two people and the adjustments needed on a constant basis diverge along many avenues. Suffice it to say that if anyone could just follow the formula, everyone would do it and superstars would abound. There are more than a few stars who were good but nothing extraordinary as high school athletes and exceptional fellows who stood out once upon a time only to crash and burn. The Twins spent much bigger than guessed last year and the turnabout has presented challenges of where to adjust in order to field a similarly strong team in 2024. Performances, as best shown by Kepler's 2023 season, are not static and the current roster is fully capable of making forward strides next season with minimal help from outside. Due to the financial situation and past practice I have a difficult time envisioning the Twins signing a Snell/Montgomery/Yamamoto. The demand for pitching may have pushed Giolito, Severino, and even Wacha beyond the Twins pockets. I wonder if a 3/$49 million contract for Lourdes Gurriel Jr is enough and/or possible to help the offense? I wonder if Miami can be a source (Cabrera)? I wonder what combination of players might interest the Mariners? I'm fine with any combination of trades that makes the Twins a better team next year and beyond. Last year I naively proposed sending Arraez and three other to Miami for Pablo Lopez, which only tells me that I do not know the value of the players. While I have looked over BTV, I would suggest they are even further off than many ideas on Twins Daily. Kepler looks good in rightfield and unless a team comes forward I;m looking forward to Max at his very best in 2024. Who knows, perhaps he has finally found his peace and is ready to be a star.
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Twins Shopping Christian Vazquez
tony&rodney replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Pitchers struggle when there isn't a catcher. Maybe consider the pitchers when thinking about Vazquez. -
Max Kepler understandably draws a wide range of thoughts concerning his abilities to sustain his excellence from the latter half of the 2023 season. I have no idea of his value as a straight exchange for another player. Edward Cabrera is a gamble for any team that could pay off in a big way. Miami likely keeps him. I thought that perhaps an exchange of players who might benefit from a new team occur. If the Twins are going to add iffy pitchers, it makes sense to add either Wacha or Lugo because these guys can be solid. It doesn't make sense to trade anyone with decent value for a guy like Cortes. Conversations last offseason included trading Kepler. The Twins never found a deal worthwhile. This offseason there may be a repeat. Kepler is a good player and there isn't any reason to trade him unless the return clearly makes the 2024 team better.
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Exactly, it was a dump and Seattle did not see his home runs making up for the empty at bats. Polanco and any other acquisition is a totally separate discussion. However, the Mariners now need two infielders and an outfielder. Do the Twins see this as an opportunity or not?
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Sorry to confuse you with the yes or no. What I am saying is that if the Twins are to go for a top pitcher in a trade it will cost players. Seattle presents opportunity that comes with a high price, one which may be very productive for both teams. Certainly there are other teams to discuss trades with all across baseball. i have noted Miami, where Edward Cabrera is out of options and scheduled to be their #4/5 guy. Cabrera has struggled and I have thought that perhaps Larnach and Winder would benefit from a change of scenery. That may be possible. Some others teams seem unlikely to trade because their teams are so short on pitching that it would hurt their team to give up pitchers. Pittsburgh is an example and so is Cincy. There are some other options, but pitching talent is hard to acquire and the cost in players is high. This is why so many folks wanted the Twins to sign a top free agent pitcher. This is unlikely due to a restricted budget for player salaries. i hope that was clear.
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Matching Up With The Mariners
tony&rodney replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Seattle traded their third baseman today. Perhaps Lee is exactly what they want. Lee is a shortstop who profiles best as a third baseman. Lee may be less of a fielder at second base due to his lack of speed, although I believe he could handle the position if needed. Seattle only wants immediate outfield help, which makes for a substitute of Lee for E-Rod in your proposed deal. Or, perhaps Seattle wants Lewis instead of E-Rod in your deal. Plenty to consider. -
You and all Twins fans do not want to trade Lee or other top prospects for that matter. Then the team just fields the team they have right now with a few simple signings or a gamble trade with Miami. Your first sentence tells me that you know that Seattle would ask for Lee or Lewis and Polanco or Kepler. This is the conundrum Falvey faces. The Twins are not going to get pitching from any team that is sorely lacking pitching. They are not signing a top free agent starting pitcher, and they are not adding hitting stars like Soto. This leaves plenty of other gambles and risk plays, of which Seattle presents the clearest example. It's either yes or no.

