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Greglw3

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Everything posted by Greglw3

  1. Greglw3
    I agree with you, it would raise the white flag and Derek Shelton and his very promising coaching staff and the young Twins on the precipice of the majors deserve better. I think they should keep Lopez and Ryan, jettison Larnach and give full chances to Austin Martin, Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Alan Roden and Hendry Mendez to flank Byron Buxton in the outfield. I think the decision on Larnach will decide if the Twins want to fully embrace a new direction and improve with this talented group of hitters I named above. I predict that he will be non-tendered. As for Matt Wallner, he should be considered an "I have to prove it" candidate. A season like last season where he had the fewest RBIs on 22 HR in the history of RBIs being recorded, back to the 1920s, in lieu of a Gabriel Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Jenkins, would be a big setback to the plans of a new day.
  2. Greglw3
    As the Twins try to turn the page and try a new way, I think retaining hitters that were mediocre (Larnach) to poor Wallner (as evidenced by his .204 batting average, inability often to even catch up to 95 MPH fastballs, colossal holes in his swing with no adjustments, and most telling, the lowest RBI total on 22 HR since they started keeping the RBI statistic in the 1920s. Depending on how many of the 22 HR were 2 run or 3 run, he may have driven in as little as 10-14 runs the whole season via 1B, 2B, 3B, BB, HBP, Groundout, Sacrifice fly. In my mind, Wallner has to beat out Gonzalez, Em Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins and Hendry Mendez who hit crazy good for Wichita. The Twins can’t run it back, which was why I found it disturbing that Falvey thinks Kody Clemens can be the 1B or at least the strong side of a platoon. Even with the timely HRs, he slumped too often and turned in an unacceptable batting average, in my book. And I really like Kody and rooted very hard for him. I hope I’m wrong but they have to platoon him and maybe then he can hit .250. If the Twins start Larnach, Wallner and Kody Clemens, then they’re basically running it back with the bulk of the offense that lost 90 games.
  3. Greglw3
    I'm not sure about that. I once had someone insist up and down on Twins Daily that DaShawn Keirsey Jr. was not a good defensive player. So, we’ll see. This turned up from a Google search. It looks like the two screen shots, starting with GG’s pic are from early 2024. The Google AI report is one indicator, but it is AI based and seems to contradict itself in the same writeup, saying he has excellent bat to ball skills but needs better strike zone discipline. I think his just completed season argues for the former! He’s the guy I really have my eye on.
  4. Greglw3
    I think you nailed it on all fronts, Nick! I’m especially high on Gonzalez as he’s the antithesis of the low to absurdly low batting average guys the Twins have given too much run in recent years.
  5. Greglw3
    Good article, Lou. I’m remarkably in sync with your thinking! My favorite pick of the whole group is Gabriel Gonzalez. To hit to that tune, including .340+ in AA at his young age tells me he’’s a guy that is a really good candidate for hitting for a very solid average in the majors. I think it’d be best if he keeps his focus on moving the ball around, hitting a good amount of doubles and not sacrifice any of the average for power. To me, the lust for power on far too grand a scale has lead to a barrage of strikeouts and low batting averages. I prefer the 1977 Twins approach when Carew hit .388, Bostock .336, both with 14 homers, Hisle .302 and Glenn Adams .338. They hit .282 as a team and scored tons of runs. I think that kind of potential exists for the current batch of prospects, except no .388. My big 5 are Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper and Mendez. And I do remember Derek Shelton saying something to the effect of "we’re gonna rely on our young players and develop them at the major league level. I’m also interested to see what Austin Martin could do if he got 600 AB! And I’d like to re-acquire the NL hits leader, who batted .354 for a whole season, Luis Arraez. And Ryan O’ Hearn to stiffen the competition in the OF and increase odds of a much improved OF.
  6. Greglw3
    I agree with you on Rosario. And I love Gonzalez.
  7. Greglw3
    Credit to Cody Christie, writing for Twins Daily: "Rosario’s improved approach and ability to drive the ball to all fields have made him a more complete offensive threat. For the season, he is hitting .258/.362/.493 with 26 doubles and 23 home runs. He’s also posting those totals while being nearly two years younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League. His performance continues to reinforce his standing as one of the most intriguing middle-of-the-order bats in the system"
  8. Greglw3
    No to 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases but maybe Yes on Klein? They really need the speed.
  9. Greglw3
    I would protect the six locks and Rosario and Fedko. Their inclusion only enhances, by whatever factor, Derek Sheltons chances of having a running team like the one Jayce Tingler suggested to Rocco late last year and was surely a success.
  10. Greglw3
    Given those options, I like a 3 way competition in spring training for the job between Lee, Fitzgerald and Culpepper. Wasn’t Culpepper chosen as the Twins minor league hitter of the year. Fitzgerald was a bit of a surprise and might do OK in about 130 games gaining experience. Lee has one assignment. Stop chasing high or outside, unhittable pitches in the hopes of hitting another home run. You’ll be far more helpful spraying the ball over the field and hitting some gaps with maybe 10 or so HR. I don’t believe in any of the advanced defensive metrics, which are new and unproven (no scientific method anywhere to be seen). Especially OAA. OAA, a mediocre defensive SS playing behind a rotation with 4 groundball pitchers and one flyable pitcher amasses far more Outs than a superior glove with 4 flyable pitchers and 1 roundball pitchers. Lee s no Carlos Correa in his prime but shows potential defensively.
  11. Greglw3
    Great hire!!! His knowledge and passion for the game come through on the telecasts, not to mention his love of helping young players. Well done, Derek Shelton! Welcome Latroy!
  12. Greglw3
    Very astute! The Twins have so many holes in the lineup and they have to plug most of them. Arraez would be an easy and airtight fix as a 3 time batting champion. Nobody else on the Twins has come within a Grand Canyon of a batting title. Clemens and Wallner should not be guaranteed positions nor even Lee. Culpepper vs Lee best man wins. Gabriel Gonzalez, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins vs Wallner, best man wins. Wallner’s season was historically bad with the least amount of RBIs for 22 HR since the advent of the RBI statistic and a .204 average. Clemens low .200s average will not cut it. That’s what they have to replace, as you indicated. I think Shelton meant it when he said these top prospects are going to be leaned on and developed at the big league level.
  13. Greglw3
    Arraez is a free agent We can have them both.
  14. Greglw3
    ANd he’s a hell of a lot better hitter than 90% of the mediocre to horrible hitters the Twins have had the last couple years. You’re citing one year. I can play at that too and say he finished 2025 very strong. He’s played how many years with a .367 OBP, a .317 lifetime average, 3 batting titles, far better than any hitter on the Twins now by light years and he makes contact, which is important to scoring runs, unlike Wallner whiffing his way to ~40 RBIs on 22 HR. We need to improve our offense. Arraez would very likely be a huge upgrade and his .317 lifetime or even last year’s .292 is vastly better than Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Outman, Gasper, Clemens, France, Correa. Combining Arraez with Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Hendry Morales would be an exciting way to jump start the revival. I’d add O’Hearn too. People are ignoring that during Shelton’s press conference he emphasized that they were going to lean on the top young talent and develop it at the major league level.
  15. Greglw3
    France and Lowe are out for me, just more of the same mediocrity. With the new investors and with the moral obligation they now have to Derek Shelton to get serious about upgrading. On the low end, I’d go after Andrew Binentendi, who I’ve read Chicago is willing to pick up most of his contract and has a history of some nice offensive years and on the high end, I’d bring back Luis Arraez. People can cite OPS+ or WAR or any other statistics that should not be used to compare players in different roles because all those stats favor power hitters and introduce the very unstable element of the ""advanced defensive metrics, OAA being the worst. The fact is, Arraez led the National league in hits last year, had 11 stolen bases and has hit .354 for an entire major league season. He has a career .317 batting average and .367 on base percentage, making him just right for the leadoff slot. All of the statistics need to be interpreted according to the role a player will play. As a leadoff hitter, he doesn’t need HR power much, so he will not compare with far inferior hitters like Wallner in all the stats slanted to this who play the role of power hitter in the 3-4-5-6 slots. The man number to look at is .367 and, yes, .354. Who hits .354 or higher? Rod Carew did 3 times but with Carew being one of the greatest hitters of all time (did you know he won his 7 batting titles by an average of 30 points?) and have followed Carew, I know what high average hitters can bring to a team! Let’s bring Luis back! Cut down the whiff epidemic! Let’s go!!! This came from a Google on his defense. "Defense: He is considered a strong defender with good reaction time and arm strength. However, some scouting reports suggest his defensive skills have regressed, especially at second base, and he is now better suited for first base or DH."
  16. Greglw3
    "Fans & players have heard for years, don't look at the results, trust the process. Falvey absolutely didn't want to fire Baldelli because he was the face of that process. After years of no results, we have to look at the analytical process (of hitting a ton of HRs when they don't count, SOs offensively when it matters, defense, fundamentals, clutch hitting don't matter) & come to the conclusion that the process is faulty. But Falvey has resisted with all his might." This says it all, cuts totally to the heart of the problem. Best analysis I’ve seen. They’d best go out and find a few higher average contact guys as the offense will never gel with a hitter with as gigantic a hole in his swing as Wallner (and who nobody could reach to say quit swinging from the heels ever pitch!). There are so many ways to score in baseball and the Twins way (the new way, not the 1970s way or the late 80s to early 90s way) eschewed way too much of the toolkit. I’m actuallyy guardedly optimistic that Falvey will go out and get at least 2 hitters and/or employ Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Kaelen Culpepper. Best both approaches. He owes it to the fans, the organization and most compellingly, to Derek Shelton. It’s come to a head and I prefer to think Falvey feels this is his last chance.
  17. Greglw3
    If they re-sign him, it’s a sign they are even more clueless than we thought and have zero interest in upgrading the offense. To me, it’s an unthinkable nightmare. I can’t imagine them sending that kind of signal and doing that to the new manager.
  18. Greglw3
    No, no, no, a thousand times no! It was a bad signing and no matter the position, the Twins need better offense everywhere except Buxton and maybe Martin and of course, Keaschall, if he can stay healthy. The dearth of offense has been fatal. It was a bad signing, though I was in favor initially but I was wrong. Jeffers and someone like Danny Jansen depending on whether his option is picked up.
  19. Greglw3
    The story, I think from the Twins broadcast booth that Jayce Tingler went to Rocco and suggested the accelerated running game. It’s a shame to have wasted that component to winning so long. I think a great manager who is a brilliant tactician can mean something around +5-8 wins. This is a small group in my lifetime but I firmly believe it for Gene Mauch, Terry Francona and Jim Leyland. From that perspective Rocco was worth - x-x wins, whether that was dictated from the top or Rocco’s head scratching decisions, like playing the infield in about 99% oof the time, eschewing the bunt in late innings when it might have won a game, taking out a pitcher with 7 IP, 1 H and 87 pitches, etc etc. I’m thinking Joe Pohlad, Derek Falvey may straighten up and assemble a decent team after all the turmoil and the upheaval of having to fire Rocco and now bringing in a new manager who they really do owe an honest effort to. And they do know the fanbase is disgusted.
  20. Greglw3
    I'm in basic agreement with you. I’m very hopeful on the players you named and highest on Gonzalez. I did do a Google on Luis Arraez 2025 scouting report and found a few surprises, that if true, make him even more of a fit. Might have to consider the source, the Google AI, which seems 80% brilliant, 10% iffy and 10% flat out wrong. I’ll post the Arraez scouting report but wanted to mention that I’m maybe an aberration among current Twins fans, as the advent of the "new metrics" (based on SABR research mostly) and the metrics I and many early Twins fans grew up with kind of create a 'generation gap' of statistical understanding. That is what it is and it’s hard to buck the current lines of thinking but then, when I give my opinion, I have to have my own personal integrity behind it. There are probably a lot of areas where the olds stats and scouting reports might agree with the defensive metrics OAA, Zone, etc and OPS+ but I largely find them misleading and placing too much emphasis on power. This is why I think the Twins can’t hit, too much emphasis on pulling (Kepler), launch angle and launch speed. By way of insight, I grew up on 1970s Twins baseball, filled with high batting averages but only the occasional power hitter like Larry Hisle or Bobby Darwin. Ubiquitous were hitters that hit .280 and above, often over .300 and the Twins scored runs in bunches for most of the 70s behind such hitters as Jim Holt, Steve Braun, Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Lyman Bostock, Glenn Adams, Mickey Hatcher, Ken Landreaux....almost all hit .300 and many well over .300 but with moderate power. Anyway, here’s Arraez’s scouting report:
  21. Greglw3
    I’m pretty sure this won’t be so popular but my economical solution for the Twins would be to sign Ryan O’ Hearn with his .281 batting average and .366 OBP to play LF/RF/1B/DH. Then sign Luis Arraez and his National League Leading hit total and .316 career batting average to play 1B. Let’s not forget that Arraez has hit .354 for an entire major league season, which maybe 1/10 of 1% of MLB players since 1960 have ever done. $12-14 MM / yr for each player on 3 yr deals optimally. Then I’d plug Gabriel Gonzalez into RF if he appears ready in spring. I think he’s a pure hitter. Austin Martin and Walker Jenkins could be in the running for lots of OF at bats also. Worst case, an outfield of Austin Martin, Byron Buxton and O’Hearn would be a big improvement. The long shot, but apparently really talented hitter is Hendry Mendez. I would also set up a competition at SS where Brooks Lee has to beat out Kaelen Culpepper for the SS job. I don’t want to run it back with Wallner or Larnach, most likely.
  22. Greglw3
    Funny!
  23. Greglw3
    I agree very much with you in the points you made. The idea is to get as far away from this recent ill-conceived Twins way as possible. That’s why I think a proven winner in Scott Servais would be the best choice of this group.
  24. Greglw3
    This is a good article but I’d say competent is not a good label for Falvey. You’re right, he’s had a few successes but overwhelmingly more bad moves and has wasted 10s of millions of dollars on below average players, much like diving in the bargain basement record bin when LPs were king. I think he may be just above incompetent but as many tries as he’s had and the total cluster* he’s trotted out in 2025 cries incompetence. Probably some or many will disagree but he showed a bit of competence in going out and getting Tait, Abel, possibly Rodon and the real offensive gem, Hendry Mendez. But then Outman was overmatched at the plate, though I pulled hard for him and he showed flashes on the bases, power-wise and defensively. He looks like a guy they should not plan on. The real strength of the org is the hope that Gabriel Gonzalez, Kyler Fedko, Hendry Mendez, Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Austin Martin bring to the table. Now who gets the credit for all the good scouting and drafting, Falvey or Sean Johnson? I always though it was Johnson but maybe they work together. Falvey needs to not hibernate for 2-3 months this offseason and acquire some offense to mix with all the strong hitting prospects. Without a better offense, the Twins are sunk (so please don’t count on Larnach, Wallner or Kody Clemens. I would be happy, as a minimum to start with and outfield of Martin, Buxton and Gonzalez and if anyone beats one of them out, great! I would have fired Falvey a couple of years ago, definitely after the 2025 season and super definitely if he stumbles around for yet another season in 2026. I like Maddon, Servais and Punto of the managerial candidates - I think they all would run a game much better than Rocco (or was it pre-plan Derek) did. Sorry for using my "response space" for an article but I usually get expansive when answering Twins posts due to all I see is wrong and what I think needs to change (ditch the exit velocity, launch angle philosophy and start putting the ball in play, moving runners, etc.)
  25. Greglw3
    Joe Maddon would be the clear best choice, not even close. He is a Hall of Fame Manager and probably one of the top 5 managers of the last 60 years. (Francona, Leyland, Gene Mauch, Maddon would be my top 4). I somehow reckon that none of the group of 5 or 6 so far will ever come close to having the achievements to be a near certain Hall of Fame manager. Maddon is a master strategist, in total command in running a game. To me, there’s zero reason to consider any of these others unless Maddon was the first interviewed and said no.
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