Greglw3

I’d like to see Gabriel Gonzalez, who’s risen all 3 levels this year and Fedko.

Its a sad commentary on the Twins organizational OF depth and attention to offense in their scouting, trading and free agency when a .209 hitter who routinely whiffs on 95 mph major league fastballs and has the horrific production stat of 16 HR and 28 RBIs could be the #2 depth option. I’d rather bring up Jenkins, Fedko or Gonzalez than give away an out almost 80% of ABs to the other team. Wallner should be held to the same standard as everyone else and have to perform to stay in the major leagues. If he can right himself in the minors like he has before, then he should return.

You can have the player with 16 HR, 28 RBIs and routinely swings and misses at 95 mph fastballs. You say outs should not be wasted but by sending a .208 hitter to the plate you’re giving the other team an automatic out almost 80% of the time. What do you think it means that Brooks Lee has a 53-28 RBI advantage over Wallner (when Wallner should be driving in runs)? As Justin Morneau often says, the object of the game is to score more runs and somebody has to drive them in. Clearly some players approach is much better than others. It’s a skill with an approach that needs to be used and it’s not relentlessly striking out and hitting .209. Honestly, Matt Wallner should not be in the Major Leagues right now. Even his home runs are much less on the clutch side than even his fellow .209 hitter Kody Clemens, who has a knack for driving in runs and makes contact with 95 mph fastballs. I’d replace him with Fedko or Gonzalez, even Walker Jenkins who, in truth is probably ready now just as Gaetti, Bush, Laudner, Hrbek were all ready when called up from A and AA in early 80s.

Not so hilarious if you think the totally biased statistic toward power hitters is more indicative of the offensive value of Lee vs. Wallner. I’ll never go for a .211 hitter. Surest way to losing there is. By your theory, Joey Gallo’s .177, nearly 50% strikeout season was worth more than Lee’s 2025. I agree about the chasing. But I think Lee will work through it and improve. If Wallner figures it out, he’s got a chance to be a big asset. I grew up on strong offensive Twins teams, Oliva, Allison, Tovar, Carew, Killebrew, Steve Braun, Jim Holt, Larry Hisle, Lyman Bostock, Bobby Darwin, Roy Smalley, Mickey Hatcher. That’s why I have no patience for hitters with Jake Cave, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Joey Gallo batting averages. I like Clemens but quite sadly, a .210 batting average is not going to make it. I think the future is bright. I like Jenkins, Gonzalez, Hendry Mendez for the Wind Surge who is hitting .375 since joining them, Kyler Fedko and Culpepper. I think 70% Lewis will be a force. Allen Roden has the right resume and showed flashes of a multi tool player, but an incomplete for now Pitching is the key to winning but a team can negate that with a hapless offense filled with .150, .198, .210 and .220 batting averages. Those spots need to be corrected if at all possible. Falvey’s done a less than stellar job of that but I think they could well be on the precipice of a good offense.

Yes, I think Brooks Lee leads Matt Wallner 52-28 in RBIs! That is very significant on both sides. Lee does have a problem occasionally chasing pitcher’s pitches and I think it’s probably related to the adrenaline rush he gets when he hits a home run. That’s Lee’s assignment. Spray the ball around and hit maybe 16-20 HR and play great SS. As Bob Casey would say, "Chasing is not permitted at Target Field. Nooooo CHASING!" Just keep growing. Wallner is closer to the Miranda black hole in space, IMO. His approach is awful and the occasional bomb not worth all the strikeouts. Cody Clemens is another one, the HR are not worth the low batting average. The Twins have made an art of concocting inept offenses with myriad low batting averages for too many years now. I think by their trades and guys like Jenkins, Culpepper, Gonzalez they may have seen the light.

I agree with this. For me, while Jenkins is a very exciting prospect, I think Keaschall has passed Jenkins. If Keaschall is eligible, he’s my #1 prospect. If he’s not, it’s then Jenkins->Culpepper. From there, I’m liking Abel, Hendry Mendez, Tait, Kyler Fedko, Prielipp, Kendry Rojas and Gabriel Gonzalez not necessarily in that order. Sleeper is Ryan Gallagher.

You may be right but I hate it when that happens!

I do like Clemens and his clutch propensity and I root hard for him, but I have a deep aversion to .218ish batting averages. I don’t think you can win that way.

They need to finish the job. Still way too many .190, .215 hitters in the Twins lineup. I don’t think Larnach is part of the solution nor certainly are Clemens, Gasper, and pains me to say Keirsey, touch and go on Julien. Martin is a keeper but why did Rocco bench him after he went 3 for 5 in his 1st game? Consistently terrible managing for years. Players I would like to see on the 26 man and/or back in the lineup ASAP are Buxton and Keaschall. Then, Gabriel Gonzalez may well be ready to hit more than some of the dead weight offense still left over. And possibly, give Sabato a shot at 1B. Kyler Fedko may well be worth a look. And I would not rule out Culpepper and Jenkins as they are part of the future and are tearing up AA. Rodriguez is anybody’s guess due to chronic injury.

2025 AAA 74 IP.....

The most misleading take a human could come up with!!! 4.04 peak FIP indeed. 2015 AAA 74 IP 54 H 2.31 ERA 32 BB 82 K Dominating. You cannot get a limitation to 54 hits in 74 innings without having dominating stuff. The 82 K in 74 IP says the same thing. Tait’s bat projects well, he’s forced a move to high A at age 18 and hitting in the .290s there.

Painter has about a 4.6 ERA in AAA. Odds he ever becomes a pitcher of Duran’s stature, with career 2.4 ERA??? Interesting also that Phillies balked and pivoted to Jax just as Jax was taken out for Clemens with runners on base and nobody out. Clemens lobs the ball in and the runs score, ballooning his ERA to 4.50. Jax seemed visibly angry and who knows, Rocco may have just cost the Twins some nice rebuilding pieces. I think the Twins should be looking for hitters given their mediocre, at best offense the last 5 years, which has crippled their chances, including this season. I would have been asking for Crawford, Aidan Miller, and A ball prospect.

My answer is no, because we have an offense that is devoid of major league average hitting ability except Buxton. The offense has been dragging the franchise down for most of the last 5 years. Keaschall can help but we’re way short with weaknesses in LF, RF, SS, 2B, 1B, and only average at C. That’s why we need to trade at least Duran OR Jax for 2 young, close to the majors hitters. And if we can pick up more offense that’s going to hit .275-.300 with the group of Castro, Bader, Larnach, Coulombe and possibly Wallner (can’t even catch up to 95 mph fastballs this year. Emmanual Rodriguez hasn’t shown that he’s close to ready, Sabato may be, Gabrial Gonzalez may be also and Walker Jenkins, we can cross our fingers on. But we need a big influx of offense and we should do it while keeping Joe Ryan. Ryan, Pablo, Ober, Zebby, maybe Festa can take us forward but we lack SP depth. St. Paul seems totally devoid of any solutions. If we can pick up 3-4 young hitters, at least 3 close to ready, then we have a chance in 2026. Otherwise no chance.

None of these deals is good enough for even one of Jax Duran. A fair trade for a sure thing top tier major leaguer at a position of extreme need for the Phillies would be Aiden Miller and Justin Crawford for Jhoan Duran. The Twins have stumbled through the last several years, plagued by mediocre to poor offenses. This deal probably still favors the Phillies as there is no guarantee that either Crawford or Miller ever becomes the impact guy Duran is. One the plus side for the Twins, if they both become impact players, then Duran was worth it.

I couldn’t find a place to start a comment so I piggy backed here. These thought are responsive only to the article. I find it impossible to look at mitigating factors or worry about a guy in any way, when he’s hitting .370 and maintains that .370 for a significant period of time. Doubles are a power factor too. That .370 average plus walks is at about the 99.8% spot on the statistical bell shaped curve. I’m finding what he’s doing very exciting and see him as a guy that could possibly replace several of the mediocre to poor hitters on the Twins now, or soon and do better.

I can vouch for Gene Mauch. He was a tactical genius. IMO the best Twins manager ever. His 1977 Twins won 84 games and carried a .282 team batting average featuring Lyman Bostock .336, Larry Hisle (82 RBIs at the all star break!), Rod Carew .388 and Glenn Adams .338 who set the Twins all time RBI record for one game with 8, in the famous June 26, 1977 game vs. the White Sox which resulted in a 19-12 Twins victory. I scored that game at home! Unfortunately the only really legit pitcher they had was their ace Dave Goltz. Bill Campbell (17-5 in relief, had been let go to Boston after the 1976 season). I believe their #2 was Geoff Zahn, a .500 type pitcher. Roy Smally was on that team (Mauch’s nephew, and in a Twitter exchange with me one time, he said he wished that team had been kept together to see what they could have achieved). Sadly, Calvin Griffith was letting every top player walk once free agency started and that 1977 team became 1978’s Bombo Rivera, Hosken Powell, Willie Norwood, Wilfong, Cubbage team which was either a AAA team or a AAAA team.

I don’ have any regard for BABIP and the way it’s used to say this result and that result is due to bad luck. Most of the SABR statistics are young, unproven by any scientific method and mislead about the abilities of the players they are evaluating. The most dubious are WAR, OAA, FIP, all of the so called advanced defensive metrics, launch angle, exit velocity are all based on dubious assumptions. Bill James wrote an article in late 2021 reflectively concluding the WAR is a deeply flawed statistic. He used a very reasoned set of arguments to support his conclusion. He claimed that WAR should be WAG, i.e Wild Ass Guess. I read one of the people that worked on OAA say that it needed more work. Carlos Correa, when asked about his low OAA a few years ago when he was playing brilliant defense, said, "of course my OAA is low, we have a fly ball staff." Stats like OPS, OPS+ while much more palatable to me, are still biased statistics. Toward power hitters. They don’t take into account role on a team so a .400 OBP leadoff hitter with 6 HR doesn’t get the same credit as a .235 avg 30 HR hitter with a .300 OBP. The same statistic shouldn’t be applied to both hitters equally. For what it's worth, Rod Carew had a BABIP of .408 in 1977. He had a magic wand and could place the ball intentionally, often, with bat and wrist manipulation. No luck. Just skill. Ty Cobb’s career Batting average was, without running a z test or t test, statistically the same as his BABIP.

I would choose Joe Ryan as without him, the Twins would really be in dire(er) straits. Buxton second.

The reason those unimpressive low-speed-off-the-bat balls are landing is due to multiple reasons, none having to do with luck. First, Lee is a talented hitter. Second he’s been more selective at the plate lately. Third, dumping those balls onto the grass is a talent, caused by a good hitting eye, getting better counts and very good bat control and not swinging from the heels like lower average K prone hitters do. I saw Rod Carew. I know this level of vision, bat speed adjustment on the fly and placement of the barrel to the ball with some nuance - ability to hit em where they ain’t - is a very real thing. The Twins need more hitters like Lee. I believe Lee will only get better, not regress to the mean, which I don’t think he’s even reached yet. He’s still on the Dark Side of the Mean.

I think they should aggressively try to strike a trade for him for someone like Aaron Sabato or Rubel Cespedes. Since he’s pitched better again with Milwaukee, I’d try to acquire him right now, then extend him 1 year with a team option for a 2nd year.

I have a pretty strong feeling that Culpepper is gonna make his journey to the major leagues quickly.

And ironically, Keaschall is probably a better hitter than the one that Duran would bring back. The only player I would trade Duran for is Carew in his prime, a .388 hitter with 36 doubles 14 triples and 14 HR. There was talk of Jared Duran being traded. He’d be a good pickup for the Twins but at a price less than Duran or Keaschall for that matter. I agree the Twins need at least one more bat and open to multiple ways to do it, but Duran could be a key cog in a world championship.

No, it was definitely Castro.

Honest truth is Lewis and Castro are hurting the team, Lewis on offense and Castro on offense and defense. Castro’s defense in the Tampa Bay game where he failed to field 3 consecutive balls to LF and let one of them kick way across the field was Delmon Young-ish. And his hitting has been abysmal.

Shows the value of expected record.