Greglw3

I have a better idea than these two unappealing options. If I have to take 1, it’s Arcia but the last thing this team needs as it seeks a new identity, a new Twins way from the last few failed years, is another .190 - .210 hitter on the roster. It’s toxic. The real solution right now with the abysmal performances of the contestants for the job, is based on their failure when they knew the stakes, call up a real talent, much better than those two, Kaelen Culpepper. In spring training I saw a guy that oozes talent. The ball jumps of his bat. He’s fast. Culpepper should be the backup SS, 3B, 2B (when Keaschall’s in left) and get 300-500 AB depending on injuries and performance of Lewis and Lee.

Oh no! A bullpen of all Pagans???!!! That would be like a bullpen of all Ron Davis’s!! I don’t think it’s that bad. I’m a great believer in ERA and at least Rogers, Chafin, Altavilla, Orze and Banda had quite solid ERAs last year. Two of the in the mid 2s and the other three in the low 3s. I think Pagan had an ERA upward of 6 the year you’re referring to, though he improved a lot the next year. I think Zebby Matthews could make a good addition since I think, for now, at least, Abel has earned a rotation spot. 1 air-it-out inning from Zebby 3 times a week could be a boost.

I think Altavilla should be swapped for Topa. I heard, probably on the radio that Latroy Hawkins is very high on him and made a major pitch to have Altavilla signed and said that he would really help the Twins. I’ve liked Chafin for a while now and he did have a 2.49 ERA last year band has been effective in camp. There really is something to that crafty lefty moniker. I remember when Frank Tanana was a flamethrower along with Nolan Ryan, then hurt his arm and changed to the craft lefty M.O. and was effective for years. I also think Tommy John himself pulled off the same conversion. Maybe the wild card is Latroy Hawkins. From listening to him on the broadcasts, it seems he brings a wealth of knowledge and passion and caring to the job. And, damn, is he funny!!!

I think that’s why they brought Urshela in and why he’s still here. But Im a little doubtful, he’ll make it. At the same time, if Lewis doesn’t hit or is long term injured, I think Urshela is probably the best guy to plug in there.

One thing I know for sure is that the last thing the Twins need to do is repeat the mistakes of the last few seasons and having subs .200 hitters on their bench, so no to Kreidler. The Twins success this year depends in a significant way on improving their offense. I think Lee will hit better as he’s made adjustments on selectivity and is more amenable to spraying the ball around the field. I’ve also noticed the last few games that Wallner has altered his swing to a flatter swing, more of a line drive swing than his former ineffective swing from the heels for home runs approach. His plate discipline looks to be slightly improved also. I also love Culpepper’s talent. And Gabriel Gonzalez. Roden looks like a natural hitter. Martin can hit and, oh boy, can Keaschall ever hit! Buxton a given. I think Bell will be fine. Larnach is a guy I would probably cut loose with so many young players having better upside than him. Then we have the secret weapons in Rodriguez and Jenkins waiting in the wings.

Stats can be used to build almost any case. His OPS was largely from the Home Runs but 22 HR are pretty much wasted when they produce 30 RBIs. That just shows the very limited nature of using OPS to compare all players to each other. Facts are stubborn but Wallner generated 30 RBIs on HR and 10 RBIs for the season on singles, walks, doubles, triples, groundouts and sacrifice flies. It had zero to do with not enough guys being on base. Wallner's job as a power hitter is to drive in runs. He was maybe 7th or 8th on the Twins in RBIs and was crushed by non-power hitting, low batting average Brooks Lee around 66-40. And Clemens. These intractable facts are just one of the many reasons that OPS+, OPS, WRC+ and a lot of the newer, untested, not scientifically validated, and importantly, still being tweaked to this day are flawed and mis-used as one size fits all statistics. I believe the Twins whole 6 year collapse and the demise of Falvey and Baldelli was caused because of an over-reliance on power and home runs and an under-reliance on hit and runs, 1st to 3rd, stolen bases and yes, bunts. Ask Terry Francone or Rod Carew (Two Hall of Famers) about the value of a bunt. I still believe that if Wallner would use the whole field, go the opposite way and concentrate on contact, he’d be more likely to get his share of homers and be a much better hitter with a higher batting average. I hope he does it.

I acknowledge that Arraez and Wallner may have made outs at the same rate when comparing plate appearances. The thing that trips me up is that Wallner hit .202 and Arraez hit .292 and has hit as high as .354 in an MLB season. Arraez also had the most hits of any hitter in the NL, durable. I find the .292 vs. .202 to be more relevant that comparing the OPS+ of a pure power hitter to a classic spray hitter like Arraez (as was Carew). I see Wallner started hitting the moment I made my case about being worried because of his 2025! If he can do that in the regular season, it will help the Twins immensely. I’d love to see him get 40 or more hits to left field and raise that batting average!!! .275 with 35 HR!

Agree on Gray. I think Urshela was really good a few years ago with the Twins with spectacular defense and a .285 average. From what I’ve seen in camp, he’s still quite good defensively and I think he could still hit some. I thought I heard a report that he had played well on Columbian team. I think it’s telling that he’s still getting play in games and Lewis is 3 for the whole spring. But I worried about Wallner and he immediately woke up!

Nobody has said this yet, but I think the Twins are still holding a possible spot for Gio Urshela because of the doubts surrounding Lewis’s health and his likelihood of maturing into the hitter we thought he could be. Aside from that, I have the same feeling about Wagaman - I liked him a lot but he may be playing himself off the roster with lack of hitting. I also have the seemingly minority opinion that Tristan Gray should win the backup SS/utility role over Kreidler and Arcia. Someone on TV that was familiar with him, it may have been Red Sox broadcasters, spoke highly of him and said "we know he can help a team". I like the way the ball comes off his bat and he uses the opposite field nicely.

Culpepper oozes talent. My comp for him would be Tim Anderson of the White Sox in Anderson’s prime.

Those stats as I explained are a distortion reflective of the 22 HR, which were so valuable that they produced 30 RBIs! .202 is now and has always been a pathetic batting average. Having the lowest RBIs of any 22 HR hitter in 100 years is inept. Several Twins hitters had significantly more runs driven in because they made more contact. Having a season long struggle to hit MLB pitchers 95 MPH fastballs is inept. I watched it happen repeatedly. Wallner could not catch up to 95 MPH fastballs. He was a very poor performer.

The anti Wallner information is sourced by Matt Wallner and his inept hitting performance in 2025.

That's where we disagree. For one thing, singles are significantly more valuable than walks, especially on a fast team with hitters that are capable of bringing in runners from third with 0 or 1 out routinely. Sorry, my biggest baseball hero is Rod Carew. I think he s very close to the best hitter in baseball history. He was not a power hitter. He won his 7 batting titles by an average of 30 points compared to Honus Wagner winning by average 15 points for his 8 batting titles. I’m heavily influenced by the explosive run scoring capabilities of the 1977 Twins who only had one power hitter in Hisle at 28 but had Bostock .336 14 HR, Carew .388 14 HR, Glenn Adams .338 and Hisle .302 and the team scored over 800 runs. I was totally into that team and other 70s Twins teams that had high batting averages, little power and scored lots of runs. Recent Twins teams have had offenses that dragged the team down and I maintain that the many hitters in Twins lineups on given days with .19X, 0r .20x or .21x or even .22x averages have lead to many games that the Twin struggle to score even a run and too often end up at 1 or 2 runs. Good batting averages matter and are why 2 of the Twins most valuable offensive players this year could easily be Austin Martin ad Luke Keaschall, the Twins two top hitters for average in 2025, both with 30 SB speed. If you offer me Matt Wallner’s .202 22 HR 40 RBI season (or even 30 HR 60 RBI with a .210 average) or Lyman Bostock’s .336 14 HR season as the 3rd outfielder, it would be the easiest decision ever! I’d also take a Gabby Gonzalez .310 with 10 HR season over Wallner’s 2025. Since I thrived to Rod Carew doing .350, .359, .364, .332 and .388 in a 5 year period....it influences me a lot. .202 horrifies me!!! Batting average matters a lot. ask .365 and .347 Joe Mauer, who without this two seasons of high batting average might not be in the HOF.

I didn’t want it to be about Arraez, I could have used Austin Martin and his .378 OBP or Rickey Henderson or Mike Hargrove when they were walking over 100 times but not hitting for power (earlier Rickey) - the concept that OPS+ should not be used as a one size fits all stat lumping all players in baseball together for comparison’s sake, with OPS+, and ensuring that players like Joey Gallo (.177 hitter) and Matt Wallner (.202) and even post 2019 Max Kepler are cited in a way that is way out of whack with their true value as hitters. The underlying concept is that player’s can play very valuable roles on teams with any number of blatant and/or subtle skills that lead to run scoring that don’t show up as well as a (in Wallner’s case) very flawed power hitter.

The fact is that if Matt Wallner’s .202 batting average weren’t bad enough, he had the fewest RBIs of any player that hit 22 HR in about 100 years since they started keeping track of RBIs. Think about it this way - I always hear from the stats revolution advocates that you can’y give up ut, you only have 27 of them so don’t bunt or steal much or at all. But with Wallner, 8 times out of 10, you’re giving away an out, those precious 27 outs. And evaluating him as league average or better ignores the fact that .OPS and OPS+ are biased heavily toward power hitters. I makes no sense to compare apples to oranges and use that same number to compare Wallner’s OPS+ to a Luis Arraez or other leadoff hitter who is helping th team a lot by setting the table. You have to look at the role of a guy on the team. A better way would be to gather up all the true power hitters in baseball, put them in one bucket and see where Wallner ranks there. I’d bet near the bottom. There’s also that Wallner failed to come up big in the clutch with his 22 HR like Clemens did with his 19. Anyone that watches all the games knows that Clemens had a special knack for rising to the occasion and hitting big HR. And Wallner had 10 RBIs resulting from non-HR. I wonder if all the strikeouts that don’t move baserunners and can’t cause a sacrifice fly had something to do with it??? I want Wallner to do well but I just think it’s a big risk to run back a guy who had a hole in his swing as big as the Grand Canyon and had trouble catching up to just 95 MPH fastballs. Especially with uber talented guys like G Gonzalez and Rodriguez looking ready and probably Jenkins not far behind. I really think if Wallner would cut down on that violent, big swing and try to put the ball in play to the opposite field more often, he’d be a better hitter.

Not to worry, 2 are gone already. Funny Gonzalez was seeing the same pitching as Larnach and Wallner and outhitting them by light years. I’m holding my breath hoping one of them gets traded. I refuse to believe from all I’ve heard Shelton and Tom Pohlad say, that they’ll run it back with those two below average hitters.

SO you think Martin and his .282 batting average, ability to steal and defensive ability is not particularly good? I disagree with that. I’d much rather have him than Larnach. Many more ways to beat you.

I like an outfield of Roden, Martin, Buxton, Outman, Gabriel Gonzalez and possibly Emma. I like Martin full time but Roden deserves a vs righty platoon as a starter based on his magnificent spring. I don’t want Larnach involved at all, that’s called running back 70-92 and so is Wallner. If they must keep Wallner, I’d hope he’s limited to just playing vs righties. The 6 that I have gives you the option of the track meet outfield in Martin, Buxton and Outman, the upside outfield of Roden, Buxton and Rodriguez or Roden, Buxton and Martin. Vs. Lefties, you can go al RH with Martin, Buxton and G Gonzalez who seemingly stepped out of the womb hitting. 1 of the 6 could DH. I think there’s enough at bats from 300, 400, 500, 550, 600 to go around for all of these guys. If anybody falters, I think Wagaman looks like he will be a solid hitter.

I think he’s got a good bat and just now coming into his prime. He would be a fantastic platoon-mate for Larnach and or Wallner who both should 100% be platooned (although I hope one is gone and the other platooned or both gone). He can platoon at DH, 1B, possibly a little in the outfield and maybe help at 3B if Royce Insurance needed. Finally he’d make a nice bat off the bench and pinch hitter. I really like him to be on the 26. I could easily see him getting 300 at bats or more and being an asset.

I remember everyone saying Ty France was a poor defensive first baseman when we got him (advanced defensive metrics, probably) and he won the gold glove. I’ve read better reports than what you’re indicating on his defense - we’ll have to see. One thing I would not rely on is the newer "advanced" defensive metrics. Credit Milb.com https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2024/twins/gabriel-gonzalez-694224 Looks like written before 2024 season but as a scouting report purportedly using scouts knowledge and experience, I assume its not based on what I consider the dubious advanced metrics, especially OAA. "He’s a fringy runner now and might slow down as he matures, though he has decent defensive instincts and has an absolute hose for an arm" And this from Sam Caulder, Twins Daily, this article, "While there’s still room for refinement in routes and consistency, his range and arm give him the tools to be an above-average defender. To me it all adds up to a much higher ceiling than Larnach, but maybe its because I’m in the throes of "hope-springs-eternal"-ism! And I like Roden more than Wallner but time will tell. Like Dan Gladden mentioned on air yesterday, no more excuses for the hitters, we’re far enough into spring training that the hitters have their legs and Roden counting the Puerto Rico game is hitting .500 and Gonzalez about the same while Larnach and Wallner are not hitting, which based on recent track record, especially with Wallner is very concerning to me. I have seen Wallner swing oppo twice for nice looking line drives to left, once late last year and once in spring training, which would help him a lot IMO, but he way too often seems confused or just overmatched.

I agree! I would have Gonzalez much higher. I think he’s a pure hitter with a very high ceiling. He should make the opening day roster at least as a platoon bat and maybe more. GG is my favorite with Roden neck and neck!

Roden is more deserving, based on what I’ve seen so far. And Gabby Gonzalez would be very useful as a platoon mate or more for a lefty bat that might hit .200 or less vs lefties. But stay tuned on E-rod, he’s ticked down just a bit with his recent at-bats but too small a sample size. It’d be nice if all 3 made it!

I was just thinking the same thing yesterday. I like Sim, but right now it’s trending toward Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Bradley and Abel or maybe Littel or Giolito.

If they just run back what got them 70-92 by starting .202 hitting Matt Wallner who had the least RBIs of any 22 home run hitter ever (since the RBI stat’s inception, around 100 years ago) - a guy that had 10 RBIs on non HR plate appearances for the whole season AND stick with Larnach, a below average player when they have dynamic young talents like Alan Roden, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins and even Ka’lai Rosario for platoon work, it would be a major gamble and a foolish one. I’m hoping they’re gonna still make the right call and transform this team to a much more athletic, defensively adept team with great upside - the players are right there in front of their eyes.

Chance was a great pitcher, 1.65 ERA is a bit historic, and did some great things with the Twins. Do we have to throw away Rod Carew’s 7 seasons with the Angels? Though Buxtons been a Twin, how many high quality full seasons has he really played. I’m just trying to give my take on the question from a full historic point of view. I left out Tovar and Zolio Versalles because of their meteoric Twins careers. I should have mentioned Hrbek as well. Let’s see how he does, I’m all for Buxton, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez dominating for several years.