Greglw3

I don’t think those boos were directed toward Correa. While they surprised me, I think the maybe 1,000 fans that booed were doing so more out of frustration that, for the umpteenth time, we have an "absolutely should score in this situation" point in the game and collectively at the last couple of hitters but not just Correa, those fans snapped. At the team. For being horrible wasters of bases loaded situations and other "should score" situations. Correa just happened to be the one up to bat when the dream of scoring when expectations were high were once again dashed. That being said, he needs to, and I believe will start hitting and be an offensive asset. Thoughts of possible unwellness in Correa now, do float in the back of my mind. But how could he play defense like that if not healthy?

Nick Gordon 2021 OPS+ 2022 OPS+ 113 [443 PA] 2023 OPS+ -24 Max Kepler 2021 OPS+ 98 2022 OPS+ 93 2023 OPS+ 81 Trevor Larnach 2021 OPS+ 88 2022 OPS+ 104 2023 OPS+ 100 Joey Gallo 2021 OPS+ 93 2022 OPS+ 79 2023 OPS+ 193 One statement is true: Of all the full seasons listed above, the highest OPS+ of all was Nick Gordon. Another truth is that OOTP had Nick Gordon rated as a 70 in LF using the 20-80. I’d go with an outfield of Gordon, Taylor and Gallo and give Lewis and Martin and Wallner their chance to break in as warranted.

The FO consciously chose not to address the bullpen problem. Now they and we are paying for it.

That's a far leap in logic. He hasn’t had 20 good outings or even probably 5 since he’s been here. He’s been horrible, probably even worse that Ron Davis. And he was, is and probably will be the reliever with the most HR/9 IP in baseball history.

Some of that is because WAR overvalues defense (especially with a Flyball staff) but it doesn’t matter. Michael A. Taylor was a brilliant acquisition. I agree the most significant. Even his batting average last year was higher than Buxton by 30 points and Kepler by 27 points and yes batting average does matter. Just ask Luis Arraez or Rod Carew!

I think they have to find a way to keep Willi Castro. Only 25 years old and a nice talent. Finished 4th in ROY voting 2020 at .349 although, so far that’s an outlier.

If they’re healthy. I don’t recall in all my years following baseball a team not having started so many key players in even one game at this late date. Larnach has started playing games, apparently healthy which makes me wonder about Polanco, Kirilloff and Buxton - especially Kirilloff. Farmer, Solano, Willi Castro and Michael A. Taylor are superb acquisitions. I think they have to find a way to keep Willi Castro.

Current Spring OBP is .370 and OPS of .825.

I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26 HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs. The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs. It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.

Solano and Farmer are both fine players. Solano has averaged .301 over the last 4 years including a silver slugger in 2020 and Kyle Farmer had 79 RBIs last year, which would have easily lead the Twins.

You said Nick Gordon hit .270 for a couple months. Very misleading. He hit .272 for the whole season, over 400 AB. This was pushing 30 points above league average. Not only that, in the serious baseball simulation OOTP, Gordon is rated a 70 in LF. You said he hit a handful of doubles but he had 28 in ~ 400 AB, Plus 4 triples and 9 home runs. I like Donovan and he may be a better player than Gordon. Or not. Gordon is in clear ascension mode

Billy Martin too!

I would definitely sign Hand.

Carew is the clear cut #1. He won all 7 batting titles with the Twins and ripped off seasons of .350, .359, .364, .388 in the 70s. He won 6 batting titles in 7 years and the year he didn’t win, he hit .332. He stole 49 bases for the Twins in a season and stole home 7 times in one season for the Twins. Carew had 3 200 hit seasons for the Twins, none for the Angels. And in that glorious 1977 season, he had 239 hits, 38 doubles, 16 triples and 14 HR. And a .449 OBP! Throw in 163 SB in a 4 year period and Rodney Cline Carew stands at the top of Mt. Rushmore for this Twins fan since 1964. He won his only MVP award in Minnesota on a 4th place team of 7! It was only due to the penuriousness of Calvin Griffith who kept NOBODY of any talent after free agency started in 1975 that the Twins lost their greatest player ever. As far as having played half his career in Minnesota, he played 12 seasons for the Twins and 7 for the Angels,

Chafin had a 2.83 ERA last year in 64 appearances and struck out 67 in 57.1 IP with a low WHIP. Karinchuk is home grown for Cleveland, Eli Morgan home grown, Clase Houston, Sandlin home grown, Cody Morris home grown, Trevor Stephan home grown, Sam Hentges home grown (most of these home grown guys had 2 years in minors and up!), Brian Shaw Az. in 2012, then FA in 2021, I think, Enyel De Los Santos from Pirates, Anthony Gose home grown 30 yr old rookie!, Kirk McCarty home grown. SO your point is well taken. I just think and have thought that Cleveland is in a class by themselves when it comes to identifying and developing young pitching. I don’t think the Twins pen is bad but not enough improved from last year. Henriquez might make a difference and hopefully Moran. I could see Winder in the pen. Falvey’s mind is made up but I’d go get the statistically rich Chafin and maybe Fulmer. But I really want to win this year. The front office has not finished the job in my estimation but with patience, we’ve see them turn in for me what I would grade a B offseason. Get Cron, Gurriel, Chafin and Fulmer and I’ll give an A! The good thing about established veterans is that there’s nothing to preclude a Winder, Wallner, Julien, Lewis, Larnach or Kirilloff from beating them out if all breaks well for any of the top prospects.

I think he’s taking the wrong approach. A deep, strong bullpen can add several wins to a team - look at Cleveland. I fay disagree with Falvey on this. However, I’ve been a strong critic of Falvine’s work post 2019. I have to balance it by giving credit where credit is due. Pablo Lopez was a superb acquisition and so was Michael A. Taylor. I’m giving the benefit of the doubt on Gallo based on his past record. Even though crazily circuitous, the re-signing of Carlos Correa is huge. I even like the Willi Castro signing - I think he may help. Signing Kyle Farmer will look great, I think. 78 RBIs last year, would have lead the Twins. If it was me, I’d get one more bat, like CJ Cron or Gurriel or Profar (who all could play 1B) due to the unpredictably of Kirilloff and Larnach, both in terms of injuries and not having proven they are major leaguers. And keeping Kepler will be detrimental. Addition by subtraction. So, lots of good moves, incomplete, which seems to be the Falvine way. Fulmer and Chafin would make the Twins a better team. Sands has shown little. Winders a question mark. I do like Henriquez, though.

Willie Mays is alive and well unless I missed something. I don’t think we’re done -several needs including 2 relief pitchers 1B that is a proven major league talent and preferably a DH who we can use like Cruz though he’d unlikely be as good as Cruz. Yuri Gurriel is who I had in mind. Perhaps another outfielder. If Kepler stays, it’s a blow to Twins chances, IMO.

I agree with your general line of thinking. I do think we can’t pencil in Kirilloff for 1B, never established and wrist is a ?. If he breaks through, great but I’d like to see them trade for CJ Cron or if not possible, sign Gurriel for 1B, one year removed from a batting title.

I’d like to pursue a trade for CJ Cron to play 1st base, sign Fulmer and Chafin and sign Gurriel, just one year removed from a batting title, to do the Nelson Cruz thing and be a most of the time DH.

I think it’s a tenuous argument that they’re improved at this point since the OF is a question mark at all 3 positions just like it was at the end of last season. Vazquez should be a good improvement over Sanchez/Jeffers. The pitching staff may or may not be better depending on health of Maeda and Mahle and whether Joe Ryan can keep living on high fastball count. I have the most confidence in Ober and Gray. If Ryan continues to improve and the other two are healthy, we’ve got something. That’s a lot f ifs. Bullpen could use at least Fulmer and Chafin. I’d add Profar to play LF (Nash Walker pointed out how Twins LF were 24th in WAR last year), trade for CJ Cron at 1B, sign Duvall for a big lefty masher and consider moving Kepler, Polanco, Kirilloff, Larnach (not all of them) for more pitching, hopefully Pablo Lopez and his 3.52 ERA over the last 3 years 1. Arraez 2B 2. Profar LF 3 Correa SS 4 Miranda 3B 5 Buxton CF 6 Cron 1B 7 Gallo RF DH Gordon C Vázquez Play ball! 7

I share the feeling that the Twins could strengthen their fragile at best offense but with a trade for CJ Cron. I thought I read the Rockies were open to talking about him.

I would submit that the offense is no better now than last year or if better, only slightly. No guarantees both injury wise and ability to adapt to ML pitching with Larnach and Kirilloff. Buxton and Gallo are question marks.Need veterans and depth in the OF. Remember late season lineups of .210 Cave, Celestino and Mark Contreras while Buxton was out after hitting 225? Sign Profar or trade for Soler, sign Mancini, trade for CJ Cron, trade for Michael A. Taylor .The offense is behind the pitching staff in my opinion. Do sign Fulmer and/or Chapman. I would trade any of Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff, Polanco and even Gordon and that would hurt because he’s about my favorite player on the team. One idea would be t install Gordon as the every day LF. He’s young and improving fast and could win gold glove in LF. The scouting report, supposedly from Sean Johnson in OOTP 23 has Gordon as a 70 defensively in LF.

A group of Chafin, Profar and Mancini would strengthen the team, IMO.

There are almost always injuries. Twins have Mahle and Maeda that will/won’t be healthy? The long term saying in baseball, "you can never have too much pitching" exists for a reason. Teams often have to use 8 or 9 starters throughout the year. Varland, Woods Richardson will be in the starting 5 if they pitch well. I think Macha would be excellent depth, even if he’s in starting 5. If all 5 are healthy and pitching well (what are the chances of that for the whole season?), then he could work out of the bullpen while all 5 are healthy and pitching well. I’m old school, I don’t believe in WAR, OAA, UZR. Just read a Nov. 2020 article by Bill James where he says WAR is virtually worthless. Another writer agreed with my observaton that it relies too much on defense (based on flawed metrics like OAA, in which Carlos Corea was in the 18th percentile last year even though if you’re a savvy fan and you watched the games, you know he deserved the GG and has one of the strongest arms at SS in the last 50 years). I like the good old fashioned professional scouting 20 to 80 rating system of every tool and trust it a lot more than stats that imply things that are truly absurd. With that as background, I’m impressed with the fact he was an all star pitcher with the Cardinals and that in 2022, he went 11-2 (personally lifting a team 9 games above .500) and backed it up with a Red Sox rotation best 3.32 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. At a certain point, you have to see that all the traditional stats, when they are consistent, as here, can’t be wrong. That’s 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. I don’t care about FIP or similar statistics because they don’t measure quantifiable objective events that happen in the real world. https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_real_problem_with_war/