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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Is that really Stewart's stuff though? Minor league velocities tend to be exaggerated, and there's been back and forth in the past about how effective his slider really is. I've read comments to the effect that he is sitting 90-92 with 3 OK secondary pitches, making him basically a junkballer without command. I haven't scouted him, but you're right that something doesn't add up, and the obvious explanation is that his numbers reflect the mediocre quality and location of his pitches.
  2. drivlikejehu
    I honestly struggle to see how Stewart could really be part of any trade at this point. The incentives are out of whack . . . what GM wants to give up something for a guy with such performance-related red flags? Even if that org's scouts like Stewart, no one wants to be in the position of assuming all that is a mirage. If Stewart never pans out (which is by far the most likely outcome), that GM looks like an idiot. Clubs take on risky bets like that when the cost is very low. And from the Twins' perspective, they drafted him very high and wouldn't want to deal him for a realistic return (i.e., a minimal return). So both sides of a potential negotiation are better off just leaving a guy like Stewart out of it. A couple more years of mediocrity though and he'll be a perfect "change of scenery" throw in.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Stewart is borderline top 10 at best in an org that has just graduated a bunch of prospects. He's a clear step down from Adelberto Mejia, who was worth Eduardo Nunez. So, at best, Stewart could acquire a player one step down from Eduardo Nunez, or a prospect of similarly limited value. And a lot of orgs probably have Stewart much lower than even that.
  4. drivlikejehu
    There's no reason to think other MLB organizations would attach real value to him.
  5. drivlikejehu
    The simple fact is that pitchers with minor league K/BB rates like Stewart almost never pan out. Sure, there's a chance, just like there's a chance that basically any baseball player in the minor leagues (or beyond) can experience a dramatic improvement in ability and/or results. Say Slegers added 5 mph to his fastball - he'd be a great prospect! Maybe Stuart Turner will suddenly become an impact hitter - elite prospect! Sure, Stewart could magically turn into a good pitcher, but prospect rankings should be based on reasonable expectations, and it's not reasonable to expect anyone with Stewart's numbers to be a successful MLB starter. It's incredibly rare.
  6. drivlikejehu
    The problem with Stewart is that guys who don't strike out minor leaguers basically never succeed in the Majors. I'm not a scout, but I don't see how Stewart can be considered as anything other than a long-shot. I'd have him in the 15-20 range. I like Diaz, but would have him around 5 spots lower due to his complete lack of defensive value.
  7. drivlikejehu
    Prospect implies potential value beyond replacement level - Turner is a classic, glove-only AAAA catcher . . . there are plenty of those guys around, and while that is certainly OK from a depth perspective, there's not enough upside to justify prospect status.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Burdi has had both health and performance issues, plus is a reliever, so I'd have him lower. I'm not really high on Jorge either but there's a chance his stuff could play up in the bullpen, so I wouldn't be surprised if he ultimately makes it in that role. I would have Wade higher. He appears to be a late bloomer that continues improving, and his strike zone control + contact ability is intriguing.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Hopefully what Korn Ferry did was put only strong candidates in front of St. Peter and Pohlad, so that regardless of the outcome it would be a solid hire.
  10. drivlikejehu
    The Twins need to do better in the draft. I'm pretty sure Falvey will want to make changes there. International scouting seems to be performing better and might require less of an overhaul.
  11. drivlikejehu
    I think the chances are very, very low Antony stays on as GM. After all, before Ryan was let go, Antony was an assistant GM; even if he stayed around, it would make much more sense for him to go back to that title. [edit: Didn't realize he was already reported as out of the running for GM]. My guess is that early on we'll see a mix . . . some guys stay in their current role, some change roles, some will be gone, as well as new people coming in from outside of course. I'd also guess that the #3 F.O. position will be a newly-created one, filled by someone from outside.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Vielma is a slap hitter . . . guys like that are now eaten alive by MLB pitchers and defenses. He needs to get a lot better at the plate just to be a utility option. Gordon has dramatically more upside offensively, far exceeding his lesser defense.
  13. drivlikejehu
    McLeod has been involved with GM searches before where he didn't get the job - he 'withdrew' his name from San Diego, for instance, but in reality that just means he knew he wasn't going to be a finalist. It could be that, within baseball, he is seen as more of a scouting dept. leader than overall organization leader. A president of baseball operations doesn't spend enough time in the trenches to fully leverage any individual skills at player evaluation. Ryan's failings are a great example. So far as Falvey, we just don't know enough about the process to say why he got the job. I'm guessing all 5 finalists presented their vision for the organization and the powers-that-be thought Falvey had the right vision and skills to rebuild the organization. I'm also guessing that it was a two-way conversation, and that the Twins want that rebuilding to maintain some of the cultural aspects of the "Twins way," as ownership sees it, even as the actual baseball side is overhauled to compete in the modern environment.
  14. drivlikejehu
    Keuchel isn't a very good comp at all - Gonsalves is an extreme flyball pitcher. I like him as a prospect but it's fair to wonder how well his stuff will play in the Majors.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Walker is the baseball version of a long drive champion. The reigning long-drive champ is some guy named Tim Burke. He's not a particularly good golfer, and in fact played college baseball. Burke was a pitcher, but the advantage to his line of work now is that he gets to hit off a tee. Unless Walker is allowed to do the same, he'll never be successful in the Majors.
  16. drivlikejehu
    What matters is what production you get in the Majors, not how many prospects you feel good about before they get there.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Luck. Over that number of innings it's not particularly unusual. Stewart probably is better at preventing hard contact than the average AA pitcher, but that really isn't saying much. Hitters at the MLB level are so much better that even a skill in that area would be worthless without much better command and stuff.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Few, if any. I'm not sure of any objective reason why Stewart is even a top 20 Twins prospect at this point.
  19. drivlikejehu
    Minor league relievers have an atrocious MLB track record, across the league. In general fans overrate those guys. Wade is the biggest jump for me, I think . . . as a college guy, playing well at Elizabethton didn't mean very much, and his college stats weren't very good. So his performance this year has made it clear that he's a solid prospect, albeit without huge apparent upside.
  20. drivlikejehu
    He's the truth. He's still learning - his complete devastation of the American League will come soon enough.
  21. drivlikejehu
    It's pretty simple. I think he's basically a 1.5 WAR player, which is the pace he's on this year, and I don't think that's good enough to be an everyday player on a team planning to win. Maybe it's more accurate to say he's a platoon player, though to date he hasn't actually shown a platoon split (a permanent lack of split is extremely rare so I assume SSS). Maybe you don't agree, but mine seems like a very 'understandable' viewpoint, especially considering Rosario's career MLB OBP is well under .300.
  22. drivlikejehu
    I don't buy this premise. An important point about Rosario is that, even though his strikeout rate is OK, he swings and misses a lot - more than Sano, in fact. But Rosario's aggression early in the count keeps his overall K rate in check. As a result, I see almost no upside with Rosario. If he gets more patient, his K rate will spike and undo most or all of the OBP gains he gets from a moderate increase in walks. I just think he's a 4th outfielder, which is nothing to be ashamed of. It still makes him among the most talented players in the world.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Not exactly a baseball research site of any kind. The only thing it shows is that GMs do not fully trust defensive WAR numbers. However, it is universally agreed that defensive WAR is approximate and subject to significant variations, whereas offensive WAR is pretty straightforward (and the associated fluctuations are easier to account for as well). Would you pay more for (1) a player that is maybe good on defense and definitely average on offense? Or (2) a player that was maybe average on defense but definitely good on offense? Some simplistic WAR charts don't capture much of the issue.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Any data to support this contention?
  25. drivlikejehu
    Fangraphs had an article showing that Dozier's chances this year have been unusually difficult, in a way that means his defensive metrics are underrating him. Speaking of which, Sano's 3B metrics are fine, way better than Plouffe's. He has made a lot of errors, but then again, the OF situation put him in a bad spot. I don't think there's really much of a problem.
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