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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    I obviously didn't mean #2 in the sequence of pitching, I meant #2 in terms of ability. First of all, the Dodgers certainly don't "need" to keep McCarthy or Kazmir due to their contracts, which <a> are pocket change for the club and <b> are sunk costs regardless. But more importantly, putting that aside - every team in baseball can use a mid-rotation starter. Even if De Leon had to start the year in the bullpen, that might even be a plus considering he's never started a whole season before. And, for sure the Dodgers are going to need more than 5 starters in 2017. Probably a lot more. They had every ability to use De Leon this season. They just didn't feel the need to keep him around, because he's not actually a #2 or even a #3.
  2. drivlikejehu
    That theory makes no sense. First of all, the email leak a little while back showed that MLB front offices make high initial trade demands without batting an eye. Second, there's no evidence that the Twins are even the ones that wanted to build the deal around De Leon - they may well have preferred Alvarez at the center. We do know that the Dodgers wanted to cash in De Leon, for whatever reason. We have close to zero facts about what the Twins asked for, except they weren't happy with De Leon plus junk. That's all we know. Yet there are posters saying or implying that the Twins somehow blew a deal, I guess because by asking for a B- prospect like Stewart they offended Friedman, who now will never speak to Falvey again? I don't know why people are writing fiction to criticize the Twins front office. They will make plenty of decisions as time goes on that will be ripe for discussion.
  3. drivlikejehu
    If De Leon is a #2 starter, why wasn't he a lock for the rotation? Are all those other guys behind Kershaw at least a #2? Unless you mean De Leon won't be a #2 for a while, which I don't understand because he's 24. Will he be good when he's 27? I don't get it.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Well, the Twins kept talking to the Dodgers even though we know that 2 top prospects was never a possibility. How long would they bother discussing something if the two sides were off by that magnitude? Plus, common sense doesn't support a crazy demand from the Twins. Falvey and Levine openly stated their willingness to trade away players and for sure would love to trade Dozier. Those are straightforward realities. They have enough experience to know a rough idea of what Dozier could return. I can't see any reason to think they have a sentimental attachment to Dozier, whom neither of them had anything to do with until they inherited him in the form of a trade chip. Nor can I see any reason to think they were motivated to somehow fleece Friedman, who they already would know is stingy with prospects. None of the pieces add up to justify your concerns/theories about the viability of the trade. Every bit of reporter information and logic goes the exact opposite way, that the Dodgers knew there was a weak market for Dozier and bid low because they had Forsythe as Plan B. It makes complete sense for all involved. It's the obvious explanation and, most likely, there's not much, if anything, more to it than that.
  5. drivlikejehu
    I'm not sure what Falvey & Levine could do about the low demand for Dozier or the horrid free agent class. It's easy to criticize in the abstract but I'm not sure what realistically could have been done differently, save for releasing Danny Santana or something minor like that.
  6. drivlikejehu
    No, we don't know. That's why you can't say that "I'd have found a way to make that deal happen with DeLeon." There is zero evidence to support the idea that anything meaningful beyond De Leon was available. You have zero legitimate basis to say that Falvey asked for too much, could have gotten a fair return, etc. There's no limit to the things you can make up out of thin air to support a point, but it's not really productive.
  7. drivlikejehu
    De Leon plus junk may as well be 1:1. That's the strongest offer that's been reported by any journalist, several of whom have reported that even B- prospects like Stewart were off-limits. The Twins apparently talked to the Dodgers on and off over a fairly long period of time, which seems to directly contradict your speculation that they could have tried harder. There is no rational basis to say the Twins turned down something more or could have somehow gotten the Dodgers to offer more. None, zero, zilch. You want it to be true, but there's no evidence to support it, and the limited evidence available goes the other way.
  8. drivlikejehu
    This is easy to say, but not a legitimate statement. You just don't have enough information to say that unless you were willing to take De Leon plus junk, which is what we can say for sure was on the table. Why do you think you would be better at upping the Dodgers offer than Falvey and Levine? The only legitimate criticism on the non-trade is to say they should have pulled the trigger on the deal we know was there. That's totally fair, and we will see how it plays out for De Leon. But any speculation beyond that is bogus - we know the Twins want to deal Dozier. If your view is correct, the Dozier non-trade is irrelevant anyway, because it would mean that Twins' front office is equally or even more incompetent than before, and therefore doomed to failure regardless of any one transaction.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Well I think we have some evidence to suggest that the Twins don't love him, considering they weren't able to build a deal around him for Dozier. We also don't really know what the majority of scouts think about De Leon, since most work for clubs rather than ESPN, BP, etc. The objective evidence is that De Leon is not seen as an elite prospect within baseball, or the Dodgers would have gotten more for him than 2 years of Logan Forsythe. Even if only a handful of clubs loved De Leon, the Dodgers could have pursued a three-team trade. The obvious story here is that, while De Leon is ready for the Majors, he's a back-end starter and everyone in MLB knows it. That wasn't enough to entice the Twins, but it was enough for the Rays to give up a player with less value.
  10. drivlikejehu
    This is not correct - there is a very high chance that De Leon just isn't very good. That's basically true for almost any pitching prospect. Many posters do not realize how high the failure rates are for performance reasons, not just injury.
  11. drivlikejehu
    Those rankings are meaningless to the Twins in a negotiation. The Twins have an evaluation of De Leon, and that's the only thing that matters. If they think De Leon sucks, what are they supposed to do, say "yeah we'll pretend we think he's good because Sickels says so." Seriously?
  12. drivlikejehu
    There is no such thing as a separate "RBI skill." Obviously some players get more than others based on opportunity, batted ball profile, etc. But once you look at the underlying reasons, there is nothing odd about that. Honestly I'm not sure what you're even trying to say, because this is basic stuff that was established decades ago.
  13. drivlikejehu
    I guess it's really just Mejia.
  14. drivlikejehu
    The Twins may also not want to break camp with rookies and burn the extra year of service time.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Cameron has a thing for soft-tossing RHPs with good change-ups. His track record on pitching projections isn't real great though, from memory . . . I know he was really pessimistic about Cleveland because their staff relied too much on velocity compared to command.
  16. drivlikejehu
    A solid change-up does wonders against minor leaguers . . . it's not nearly as common a pitch compared to the breaking balls that hitters have seen since their early teen years. The change is also more effective than breaking balls in the higher-altitude PCL parks, so while De Leon got a lot of credit for his run prevention in the PCL, he's also a good fit for the league in that sense. In the Majors, a solid change-up by itself isn't enough. Right now it's not clear what else De Leon brings to the table . . . mediocre fastball, inconsistent command, sub-par breaking pitch, no proven durability. If he was in the Twins organization no one outside prospect circles would know who he is.
  17. drivlikejehu
    No one trades 6 years of a #2-3 starter for 2 years of Logan Forsythe. Least of all the Dodgers. It would never, ever happen if they really believe that is who De Leon is. If De Leon turns into a reliable #2-3 starter, I will write a lengthy ode to TheLeviathan's foresight and forever renounce sharing my opinions on prospects, with the Twins or any other club.
  18. drivlikejehu
    Since Forsythe is 30 and has one good, full season in the Majors, I'm not sure how much sense it makes to hold 2016 against Dozier. Forsythe has about half of Dozier's career WAR.
  19. drivlikejehu
    I'll take 1 month of Pumpkin Dozier in exchange for 3 months of Babe Dozier.
  20. drivlikejehu
    I think the new front office is basically Stewart's only chance at this point, to be good and not just a AAAA journeyman type. I don't know how realistic it is, but I'd be curious to at least see what happened if Stewart started mixing in 4-seamers at the top of or above the strike zone.
  21. drivlikejehu
    I think it says more about how valuable they think a 30-year old Forsythe is.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Does the go-to labrum surgery doctor have a twitter account?
  23. drivlikejehu
    It really doesn't suggest anything. The Dodgers I'm sure would have given the Twins a couple C prospects in addition to De Leon. That tweet says nothing about what quantity or quality was offered beyond De Leon, i.e. it doesn't help to evaluate the non-trade at all.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Steamer and ZiPS both like Dozier for almost 2 WAR more than Forsythe in 2017. They aren't even in the same category in terms of value. The move makes sense for the Dodgers because they are already good, not because Forsythe is comparable to Dozier.
  25. drivlikejehu
    There's no way the Dodgers offered De Leon and Alvarez for Dozier. This trade confirms that the Dodgers wanted to sell high on De Leon. I guess we'll find out why soon enough.
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