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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Say what you will about Perez. He gave us a very good April and May which helped us get off to a great start and provide some cushion for the later months. I have wanted the 5th spot to go internally to Dobnak and Graterol all along so if Bailey can give us a couple good months early while Pineda is on the shelf and then we get Hill and Pineda we should be in decent shape. Things rarely go according to plan. Maybe Dobnak and Graterol compete for ROY, Bailey and HIll have great seasons and Berrios and Odo tank. For now I am happy we got a little depth.
  2. Dantes929
    I know its not apples to apples and I am generally a pitching and defense guy but JD had a 6.4 WAR last year to Cron's 1.4. Games are won by a lot of different things and pitching is just one of them. More offeense and better defense is a factor also. Why say we are set for offense just because last year was a great year. Why not try to get better on offense as well since it seems to be an easier get than pitching? Budget his contract at 40 mil this year, 30 mil next year and 12-15 mil the next two years. I'm not saying this is a must guy to get but he would look pretty good over at third with Sano at 1st and Sano at DH after that.
  3. Dantes929
    Like when they say such and such all star is "a great player but even a better human being." What are the odds one of the 100 best baseball players in the world is also one of the 100 best human beings? Nope, Nope, Nope. Not happening.
  4. Dantes929
    Not everyone has a struggling period but some certainly do. He dominated in the minors before his call up. I'm not sure he has anything more to prove there. I hate this talk of innings limits. This article kind of says it all and you really don't have to read past the headlines. It has never made any sense to me that you work up a guy to the point where he can throw 100 pitches and then have him do it for 20 starts at 6 innings a piece and then shut him down for 6 months before he does it again and this time he can go 24 starts. I'm ok with the theory if there was any proof at all that it works but there isn't. I have no evidence but it sure seems like there are as many or more guys that get hurt in ST or the first month of the season as there are in innings 180-220. How about just a little common sense. 1. Build up to 100 pitches a little more gradually. 2. Have pitchers active between innings like Gibson rather than sitting there motionless for 10-15 minutes. 3. Stop obsessing about 100 mph and above. Verlander averaged 94-95. Cole 96-97 and Graterol 99. Common sense says dialing in 95-97 is more sustainable and safer than 99-101. 4. Forget innings limits and spend more time monitoring and stressing that the pitcher be honest about any issues before they become problems. 5. If strain or dead arm become issues maybe skip a start and continue to monitor.
  5. Dantes929
    Can't do it. They might be out of the race by then.
  6. Dantes929
    I would prefer 10 seasons of 10% chance of winning it all to two seasons of 50% chance of winning it all. I know it doesn't work that way wither but you get the idea. If we signed Wheeler, Strasburg, Cole and Ryu for two years I think I would lose interest. If we had drafted and retained them all I would probably feel differently.
  7. Dantes929
    That would be one of the best off seasons ever. If we get Donaldson I am guessing Kuechel rather than Ryu since the big knock on Kuechel was he doesn't fit with our poor infield defense so shoring up the defense makes it a better fit and if you are spending that much on JD then probably not spending that much on Ryu. Yes, to bullpen arm. Currently we are Rogers, May, Duffey, Romo, Littel and probably Stashak. Possibly Graterol. Any idea what it would take to get Gray? I still like the idea of internal (Dobnak) for one starting pitching spot so if we got any one of those 3 starting pitchers along with Donaldson that would exceed my expectations.
  8. Dantes929
    Nope. I prefer to see Dobnak pitch great for 180 innings this year.
  9. Dantes929
    Ryu had shoulder surgery in 2015 and elbow surgery in 2016. If they had been more recent I would share your concern. In 2018 he missed a chunk because of a groin injury. I pulled a groin once and it took a really really long time to heal but once healed I never really thought about again. Doesn't seem like a recurring kind of injury In 2019 he had a neck strain towards the end and probably more out of precaution than anything else, he missed a few starts. Again, I consider this a one and done kind of injury. He pitched 187 innings and as far as I know is completely healthy right now. If his elbow and shoulder surgeries had been more recent I would share your concern. but as is I don't see his health as a "big if" unless I am missing something. Kuechel was off my radar as being an big impact guy. I just hadn't thought of him much but now looking at BR I see he is just a season removed from 204 innings and a 3.75 AL ERA. Missed half of last season for no reason I am aware of except for holding out for better contract. 33 quality starts out of 53 the last two years is a better percentage than Berrios or any other Twin the last two years. Yesterday I would have agreed with you but on further review I think he would definitely qualify as big impact.
  10. Dantes929
    Sorry. I know this is the Kuechel thread but Ryu's name was lumped with his in terms of similar desirability. I was talking about Ryu when talking about runner up in the most recent Cy Young, not Kuechel.
  11. Dantes929
    You guys might be right but it still baffles me how a guy's most recent season includes 187 innings and runner up in Cy Young does not rate highly and a guy (Wheeler) that didn't finish and has never finished in the top 11 was one of baseballs most highly sought guys. Does actual run prevention or recent history count at all?
  12. Dantes929
    I would love to have Ryu so that we can fill two spots for the first month with our internal guys. I'm not just ok with one of the above guys filling a spot, I actually want it. Spring training isn't where you should be making decisions who will be on the Opening Day roster though there is some wiggle room for guys that come in and do great or for those that appear to have sit on the couch all winter, though I really don't see that happening with these guys. To me, Dobnak and Graterol have earned a spot based on having really, really good seasons in the minor s last year. Does Graterol really have stuff he needs to work on or is he just going to go down to the minors and dominate for 5 innings at a time to no purpose. If people are really afraid of him getting injured then get him in the majors as soon as possible to avoid wasting bullets. At some point internal options such as Radke, Mays. Lohse, Milton, Santana, Liriano, Garza, Slowey, Blackburn, and Baker were given chances and became average or better major league pitchers. Gibson and Berrios are the anomalies because they are the only two starters developed by the Twins this decade. However, that stretch should also be considered an anomaly because a team should be able to produce much better than that on average. I have faith that Dobnak and Graterol can be those guys. A little less faith in Thorpe being ready and a little less still in Smeltzer. I would really like to get Ryu because I also don't have a whole lot of faith in any of the other pitchers available to be better than oour internal options.
  13. Dantes929
    Its not just a high leg kick. Its a really long stride. Combine that with where his hands are it really does look like a long swing. With a long swing I can also imagine you have to commit earlier which gives you a little less time with recognize pitches. It all makes sense. Keep the leg kick but shorten the stride might make the swing quicker. I would want him to work on good consistent contact rather than worrying about power at this point. Kirby was a good batting average guy before he became a power hitter. I would try to follow that path. I know this won't be popular with many on here but I also would like him to add bunting for hits down the 3rd base line. Why not add that skill set to his arsenal now.
  14. Dantes929
    Senior Smoke had a 3.99 ERA and Reardon had a 4.5 ERA. Hardly shut down relievers Viola was coming off a 4.5 ERA year in 86 and 4.09 in 85. My point was no way before the year began were you saying Viola was an ace. No way before the season began were you saying 36 year old Morris was going to throw one of the greatest WS games ever. You would be saying "Boy,, another washed up veteran. Aren't they ever going to try to win?" You were probably even saying "Cheap Twins trading a Cy Young winner because they don't want to pay to keep him from being a free agent". If the Twins win the WS next year in some future year you will be talking about what great moves the Twins made to sign Cruz, resign Odorizzi and Pineda and rely on young Graterol to have a big year.
  15. Dantes929
    I could probably give you thousands of examples of anecdotal evidence of a team losing a game or series and then putting out the same team the next time and having different results. Twins scored 7 runs in 3 games in the playoffs so better get a whole different lineup because if you don't they will only score 7 runs next year? They had bases loaded and no outs and didn't score so next year they won't get a big hit either? The Nationals were a two out 3 run single from being eliminated in the wild card game. If they had I am sure the fans would have said " We haven't advanced past the first round of the playoffs in 49 years. This team just wasn't capable of doing any better". But because they did have that big play we know better. Its baseball. With the same team guys will improve or get worse. The only guy I really wanted in free agency is Ryu. My biggest fear, and it was a distinct possibility is that we would also lose Pineda and Odorizzi. 91 Twins didn't go from worst to first by signing an aging pitcher coming off two mediocre years and an untested rookie at 2nd base. They went from worst to first because those guys had a great year and everyone that played on the last place team simply played better. I'll hang my hat on a team that won over a 100 games last year. They might be better, they might be worse but they are unlikely to be the same.
  16. Dantes929
    Finally someone that saw what I saw. Fans were saying that off season he needed to develop another pitch or the league would catch up to him. No!!! he was already changing speeds and angles so much it was like he had 20 different pitches. I suspect that working on that 3rd pitch so much the next year caused him to lose a little bite and command of his curve ball and just as importantly he stopped hitting corners with his fast ball. Of course then fans said "See, told you he couldn't last as a starter with just two pitches!" ignoring the fact that those two pitches just weren't as good as the previous year. Now Dobnak might be the same way but he wasn't just great in his 28 major league innings. He was great in the 135 innings he pitched in the minors. He might just be a flash in the pan but I'm not going to just assume so. Anyone can have a clunker and in Yankees stadium to boot. At any rate, I think he's earned the shot.
  17. Dantes929
    He had an elbow and a shoulder surgery. Obviously went well since he was runner up in Cy Young this year. Last injury was a groin injury which I assume won't recur. I get concerned with a guy like Buxton who has a thin frame, plays at a ridiculous speed and has had at least one concussion but even with him, if he is healthy now I expect him to be healthy. Much like Bumgarner, Wheeler or Cole there are any number of guys that you could say, "He's been durablle" but it only takes sliding the wrong way, planting the wrong way or for a tendon to stretch the wrong way for that to all change in a minute. Monreau, Mauer, Nathan and J Santana were all healthy until they were't. All sorts of guys have been injured and then have recovered and have had no problem until retirement. In other words, I am not any more concerned about Ryu's health than any one else's since he is healthy now and coming off a great year. I am a little concerned about his age. IMO He is a much better option than Price, who will be paid 32 mil for the next three years. The shorter the contract the higher the price so if you all are talking about 4 years of 100 mil I would offer 65 mil on a two year contract with a club 30 mil option for the third year. Something along those lines anyway.
  18. Dantes929
    While the starters didn't shine, the defense was worse, the bullpen was worse and the offense was worse. Berrios gave up one earned run. Odorizzi but for bad defense would have given up one run and Dobnak wasn't on the field when the Yankees scored 3 of the 4 runs charged against them. Starters didn't shine but they were the least of the problem this past post season and is being blamed for being all of it. I still think that series would have been way different if Littell had done his job. Maybe not. Its baseball so its full of what ifs.
  19. Dantes929
    Doubtful he's better than I think. Not everything should be judged by the Yankees who are probably the most patient team around. There are free swinging teams that make the playoffs. Besides his stuff, I really like his attitude. Think Jack Morris rather than Mike Pelfrey. For this reason I was disappointed that he was taken out of the playoff game when the Yankees loaded the bases. This wasn't just hindsight based on Duffey giving up all three of the runs plus more. It was based on the fact that Dobnak seemed to bare down well when in trouble during the season but was not given the chance in the playoffs. In my book he earned his spot by having a great year in the minors and being great down the stretch. We should be looking for one spot to fill rather than two. Give Ryu 60-70 mil for two years and call it a great off season. Ryu, Odorizzi, Pineda, Berrios and Dobnak with Graterol and/or Smeltzer filling in for Pineda to start the season.
  20. Dantes929
    Too bad we never go after impact free agents. All we've gotten are Cruz, Arraez, Sano, Gonzalez, Polanco, Pineda, Kepler and Castro. Only 40% of our top players.
  21. Dantes929
    Not seeing Nelson Cruz on there.
  22. Dantes929
    I used to be partners in a fantasy league with a guy in the late 90's. I wanted to get Mark McGwire and my buddy said "No, he's too injury prone". I said I don't know from injury prone but he's healthy right now and no reason other than that label to think he wouldn't continue to be healthy. We didn't draft him which cost us 135 homers over the next two years. Healthy is as healthy does. I always say Cal Ripken was a bad plant on a double play (broken leg) and a bad bounce on a foul ball (broken toe) from being called injury prone. Ryu pitched 187 innings last year and as far as I know ended the year healthy. In my mind that makes him just as likely to miss time to injury next year as Gerrit Cole. Kind of baffles me how Cole at a 2.5 ERA, Strasburg with a 3.32 ERA and to a slightly less extent Wheeler with a 3.96 ERA and Bumgarner with a 3.9 ERA can be considered aces but a guy with a 2.32 ERA and a FIP better than any of those besides Cole is not considered an ace.
  23. Dantes929
    Ryu had 22 quality starts out of 29 last year and most were Bert Blyleven's definition rather than the 6 inning 3 runs given up definition. Bum was 20 of 34 and most were the weaker variety which accounts for the difference in ERA of 2.32 vs 3.9. Bum had 5 more starts and 20 more innings. I am more concerned about making the playoffs again but if it is playoff success you want I will still go with the 2.32 ERA. Injury prone only counts with me if they are coming back from an injury. No one wants another Dyson situation but I assume the Twins would do diligence to make sure he is currently healthy. 3 years at 75 mil is also appealing vs a 4 year 100 mil deal. Ryu hands down but if you told be today "Well, you guys will have to settle for Bumgarten I'd say "EXCELLENT"
  24. Dantes929
    14-5, 182 innings, 2.32 ERA, Runner up for Cy Young. I can't tell if you were joking or if you didn't consider 2019 to be a break out season. He's two years older than Bumgarner. The more I look at his stats the more I wonder why we would want Wheeler, Bumgarten, or Hamels or even Strasberg over him.
  25. Dantes929
    Yep. That's me. If you didn't respond I was going to. I would like to have Wheeler as I have stated but don't know why he is considered so highly. His innings are his big plus but his stats in 2019 were bolstered by his 2nd half which also included deep game shutouts against weak White Sox Miami and Cincinnatti much like you pointed out for Pineda. In the month before his suspension my level of confidence in getting a good 5 or 6 innings was Odorizzi, Pineda and Berrios in that order. Other people are higher on Berrios than I am. Wheeler would be in that mix but not above it. I think Pineda is a better than average pitcher which is more than I expected in his first post surgery year. If he ends up our #5 that would be awesome. I don't know why a better than average starter would be widely considered back of rotation. I never said he was a top of the rotation guy. I am ok with a staff full of good pitchers even if it lacks a great one. Good pitchers throw shutouts sometimes too. I could be way off base. its baseball. Experts are right half the time. Us amateurs are wrong half the time.
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