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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Agreed, there are indeed always mitigating factors to be considered. Mitigation is perhaps the biggest thing in itself in what I'm saying. Mitigation... Make something less severe, harmful. You mention "bench" a few times. That will be a sticking point. I recommend just removing "bench" by definition from your thoughts in regards to the roster. Just think of them as players and let them sort it out through performance. Don't roster lesser players on purpose... thinking of them as bench. They are just going to be the guys we end up relying on when the inevitable injury happens or if someone performs like Lewis did last year. If Kriedler is your choice for a bench role. Kriedler is going to be the guy that gets on the lineup card when they have to send someone down or if someone gets hurt. The front office, fans, everyone needs to stop being afraid of the accumulation of excess talent. If Lee, Culpepper, Clemens and Bauers (Just using Bauers as a placeholder). All stay healthy and they are all playing up to our dreams and Lewis turns it around and he plays like we dream he can. Having 5 infielders with talent for 4 positions is not a problem. That's what every team in baseball should want. I openly complain about spending 5 million on a 1 year rental. I do indeed hate that because the player won't be back and then we can't get to the future if we are stuck in the merry go round present that you can't get out of. Spending 5 million on a player that will be back... I have no problem with that. Spending 5 million on a player that entered the league a superstar. I have no problem with that. Now if he has third year in a row of what Lewis has been. We won't need to discuss it next off season. You let him go. Let someone else enjoy that last year of Royce Lewis before free agency. 5 Million for a player who can still become what was promised is sensible but you can't enter next season with him in your plans as 162 game at 1B. Tom Pohlad shouldn't have a problem with 5 million either because he needs to be serious when he says he will support this team. I don't worry about Royce Lewis being comfortable right now. My suggestion is to make him uncomfortable... Make him earn his job back. If he's the Royce Lewis that was promised... he beats out Clemens at 2B. He even beats out Lee at 3B or Bauers at 1B. The accumulation of talent is not something to avoid. It's something to strive for but if you are purposely choosing Kreidler over the unrealized potential of Lewis no matter how disgusted we are with him. You are purposely choosing lesser talent and if Lee gets hurt. We will need Kriedler to be what he isn't capable of doing. Defense... well... that can be subjective. If you think Kreidler is more valuable because of his defense than that is the path you would take and I'll respect that. However... if Kriedler's defense is that valuable and the reason you choose him... Play him then... Don't call him bench. He will get more innings to help us with his defense. If you play him. Choosing a defensive guy because of defense. He needs to play for that defense to be value to the club. He can't make plays from the bench. To honestly choose Kriedler... You need to be able to say that you prefer Kreidler over Lewis if Brooks Lee has a season ending injury in April. I'll take Lewis.
  2. You make good points as well. Your opinion is fair. If they decide to go for it. They'll need serious investment elsewhere. Punt the catcher position so you can spend your resources elsewhere. Caratini and Jackson. Call a good game. Frame some pitches. Whatever they hit is gravy. Take your resources and get stronger with needle movers 1 through 8. You are probably right on Bauers. Although I don't think Milwaukee will be adding payroll. Milwaukee wouldn't be the team to worry about unless Bauers doesn't want to leave and take a deal to stay. Their payroll is as high as it as ever been. I can't see it going up. It's not a long list of 1B needy teams but the list does get longer when you add DH. Longer still if teams think he could play OF. But... if Tom Pohlad wants to show seriousness. This is where he can show it. Get a 1B who can hit the stuffing out of the ball. If not Bauers... someone. With Jeffers... it's not a guess at the maximum... I'm just using 15M AAV because that's what the top catchers make. I'm open to the Twins offering 3 years 50 million just to make other teams bid at least 51. 😉
  3. Something like that. I don't want to attach numbers like 13th guy but let's call Royce the 5th infielder. He has to earn a job back. He can compete at 1B, 2B and 3B but we got to sign a good 1B. His role is still important because... I'll bet anyone money that we will either have injury from those 3 positions or/and somebody at those positions will struggle. That's 3 positions and 4 players. He could play 3 out of 4 games if he earns it. He could play 9 out of 10 games if he hits like the Lewis that was promised to us. If he becomes a guy that truly can't be replaced and you can play him like he can't be replaced. I'm tired of players hitting like Lewis and the manager acting like they can't be taken out of the lineup. If he doesn't... if he continues to struggle. He could play 1 out of 4. Whoever is winning the job gets the job. If the front office decides to take those 4 starting pitchers and go for it. They can't put Royce's name down at 1B and hope he does something with no safety net. Let's make him the safety net. A good 1B via trade or a free agency signing needs to be the top off-season priority. You can't trade him now at his value. He showed us what he could do when he started. You gotta make him get it back. You don't get anything back in a trade. After he hits 40 home runs with the Rockies. Twinsdaily would tear Zoll apart. You gotta try. Just not force it this time.
  4. You make a legitimate point. The timing isn't smooth or ideal. Our young position players will be getting major league work in. Our young pitchers may have to wait a little if we attack 2027 with our 4 starters in their last year of control. The front office will have to make another decision. Bet on your starting pitching and go for it or Trade and make room for younger arms. Let them grow along with the young position players.
  5. We will have to wait til next year. There are no guarantees with anyone. Keaschall has that potential. Emma had a real good energy on that field. Young players can come up big. Ole' Petey Halpin with .594 OPS in the regular season energized the city of Cleveland with a big blast. Leaders just step up and take the job.
  6. I love a nice Mount Rushmore discussion. Lewis would be George Washington.
  7. If he wants a decent contract after this year from one of the other 29 teams. He better step up.
  8. There are no gaurentees with Bauers in regards to health or continued performance. That's the risk you take when you sign free agents or trade for players. It was one hell of a breakout this year so that's where I'd like the dice rolled. I'm fine with Tinney or anyone who can hit the baseball hard. Hitters fall down the defensive spectrum and land at first base all the time. That's why other teams are producing 1B because they manage to get first base mitts to guys who can hit the baseball. The Twins we just sign guys at 6 million for a year and we remain stuck in averageness.
  9. Crisis is a little dramatic. Having multiple young arms isn't a crises. However... they are going to hit a wall.. the question is how hard do they want to hit that wall. The Twins will need to decide if they are going to go for it again in 2027. They have the starting pitching depth to go for it but they will have a lot of questions marks elsewhere. Going for it with the starting pitching leading the way will result in hitting that wall full speed with 4 expiring contracts gone after. Leaving major question marks in the entire rotation for 2028. Or they could attempt to slow down a little this off-season by moving some of expiring contracts during a labor negotiation that could freeze everything for a period of time. Trading some of the expiring contracts will lessen the depth necessary to get through the 2027 season but it will give them a chance to identify who will be ready and counted on in 2028. At this point with trade value significantly reduced. Another run at this thing is somewhat justifiable. But, if they are going to do that. They will need to rely on young players like Culpepper, Jenkins, Emma and Keaschall to carry a lot of water and they will need depth for insurance in case they struggle carrying water and these type of struggles can't be ruled out. Signing specialists in the off-season will not provide that insurance if Culpepper gets hurt or hits .180. I am not afraid of youth so a solid pitching staff with young talent on the offensive side can work. There is an opinion that going young means a 5 year rebuild. This is wrong. It can be done in less than a year. Young teams struggle when there is no talent on the roster in any department. The Young Nationals hit the ball in 2026 better than a lot of vet led teams. The Young Nationals could not pitch to support that hitting. We hopefully have starting pitching in 2027. I don't have a problem with young pitching in 2028. But, it needs to be developed a little in 2027 to see what you are working with. You will delay that development running into the wall full speed in 2027 and we could be the 2026 Nationals in 2028. A bunch of good young hitters with a bunch of average or below average starting pitchers. Mitigation of the wall will require swapping some one year left guys for someone with two years left. Trading Ober and signing Trevor Rogers to a two year deal. That sort of thing. The front office needs to choose and make that decision around labor strife.
  10. In the meantime, As the Twins are making plans to spend 4 to 6 million in an attempt to lure Grichuk to Minnesota... who will then take all opportunity from Walker Jenkins against left handers while Martin takes all opportunity from Emma. I can't help but wonder how Garrett Mitchell and Jake Bauers were able to take Dodger left handed pitchers deep as they sweep the mighty Dodgers. I also wonder how it is even possible that the Brewers allowed 176 AB's to the left handed hitter Turang against left handed pitchers. 135 to Bauers. 118 to Yelich, 107 to Mitchell, 88 to Frelick, Yet, they still won 103 games.
  11. With Rooker we missed and we missed big. If they can miss that big. Can anyone place 100% confidence in any player assessment? No we can't. More importantly... the front office can't have that type of confidence either. They missed that big. You can't miss that big and tell people... Hey we know. He was standing right in front of them. They chose Garlick. They chose Celestino. They Chose Gordon. They chose Astudillo. We chose lesser talent. Brent Headrick was standing right in front of them. Ronny Hernandez was standing right in front of them. They gave Kepler about 1,000 AB's of below average. They are giving Royce Lewis about 1,000 AB's of below average. They don't know! Yet there are folks who want to reduce the input to the bare minimum like they never miss. They will staff specialists as the safety nets and it doesn't work and they repeat this process year after year. Pretty soon a decade goes by and we have produced bupkis. Now we did produce a Louie Varland and Varland at least had some trade value. At least Varland was a main piece and not a throw in like Rooker was. I get what you are saying about Varland. The Varland trade could still work out if Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden become something. Rojas will be especially important when 4 pitchers are gone after next season. It's up to the Twins to turn him into value now. If they don't... we will have lost Varland for nothing. Just another missed assessment. Roden... I can already predict it. He won't be given the opportunity to become anything of value. The Twins will choose Martin over Roden. The Twins will choose Gonzalez over Roden. The Twins will trade for a right handed specialist outfielder over Roden. This we know.
  12. Agreed He has to consider the mitigation of that risk and this is his pay day. He did his time... he has earned this opportunity. No doubt that Injury and poor performance in 2027 could leave money on the table. However, if you are willing to bet on yourself. If we set 3 years and 45 million as the base line as the contract he signs. . After the 23 QO in 2027. Two years at 11 million breaks you even. Anything above that is gravy. A 3 year deal around 15 million afterwards. Now he is in gravy up to his knees. If he wants to limit that risk and if he truly wants to choose the team he plays for... for the first time in his career he is getting that choice and that alone would be important to me if I was in his shoes. He probably turns it down. But, If you offer it... You have to prepared for his agreeing to it and if he does then you are sitting with 30 million invested in catcher and very little money to address other holes. You would have to try and get 5 million back moving Caratini and I'm not sure if anyone would pay that so maybe it's 4... maybe it's 3. I'd love for Jeffers to remain a Twin. If they truly want him back. Pay the 3 years at 45 and pay off some of the Caratini deal so you can get him the hell out of town. That'll save about 8 million to spent elsewhere plus whatever you get for Caratini. If we don't sign Jeffers to an FA contract because he chose the Yankees. Well... that problem was created last off-season when they decided to not trade him, go for it and then they watched his value shrink to nothingness. I'll forgive that mistake... I'll mention it often but I'll forgive it. However... compounding that mistake by making another mistake on the same player and I'll join you and ask for a new guy at the helm. There is no way I offer that QO unless I know for sure that he isn't taking it. And if he has no intention of taking it... it would be a huge mistake for his agent to tell the Twins that he has no intention of taking it. Because if they tell the Twins that... they will surely offer it. Once offered... his compensation is immediately lowered because teams will have to factor in the draft pick compensation that is now attached to him. The safest thing to do... is just not offer it.
  13. If it's one guy... it's OK to assume that it could be that one guy with the problem. When a decade goes by and all the farm has produced is Keaschall and Jeffers and that's it. By produced I mean a player that other teams would want to acquire and willing to pay significantly for. Not strip mined specialists. At that point... I think It's OK to assume that it isn't each guy but the organization itself. What's the old saying... If you think everyone in the room is a jerk. You are probably the jerk. We need to develop or we die.
  14. Agreed... those teams do seem to get decent mileage out of these guys. My assumption is that more opportunity is available for them as well. Lewis... no trade value. We are better off trying to raise his trade value. Agreed on potential alone there will be a bunch of teams that would love to give him a shot at reaching it but they are pretty disciplined about paying value and no more. I'd like to see Lewis win a job back with us and we will need him to win that job back because injuries and sub par performance from the others will demand that he does. This is a prove it deal with Royce Lewis and he has 3 players to compete with. Lee, Clemens and whoever the 1B is.
  15. If he can play SS along with the other infield positions. He'd be perfect for what I'm looking for. Even with Houston waiting in the wings. We are very thin in the infield. The chances of Lee, Culpepper and Clemens all having injury free years with above average production is not something I would bet anything significant on. I'd only bet a dollar and only because I wouldn't mind losing that dollar. No idea what he would cost. If it's Ryan... I'd have to give that a lot of thought.
  16. I'm not really interested in a one year prove it deal. Nor am I interested in spending any amount of money on a short side specialist. I do like that he makes contact and I do like that he can play some 3B but that's it. He's a no. Bauers is the guy. Yes it was a breakout year but a damn good one. A left handed hitter who hit lefties very well last year over 160 attempts so he doesn't need to be platooned. Bauers actually hit lefties better than Bohm. Bauers for 3 years 36 million and then get serious about growing a 1B out of your farm system. A farm system that is ranked in the top ten every single year but can't get to shore at the MLB level. Let's put a pause on this one year at a time merry go round that has been taking place since Joe Mauer retired. 1B needs to be addressed. If Tom Pohlad is serious... this is where he can get serious and bring in a player that actually provides a threat to opposing pitchers. The fan base might appreciate that. Bohm isn't that guy. Add Bauers and you have a legit bat behind Buxton. Any thought of hoping that Royce becomes the guy is malpractice. He might become the guy, it ain't over for him so you can roster him but you have to make Royce prove he is the guy before making him the guy.
  17. Congrats to Brian on the new position. It's been my experience that people named Brian are exceptional. With that said. Get to work. You are going to hit a starting pitching wall after this season.
  18. The Dodgers invested more in their catching than any major league team in 2026. They spend 18.8 million on the position. Paying Will Smith 18 million and they paid 1.2 million to Rortvedt and they have Feduccia and Rushing making the minimum. That's what the big boys with the big boy dollars are paying for the entire catching room. do we seriously expect to have a discussion about paying 30 million. 23 million to Jeffers... 30 million for two catchers... would have a huge effect (or affect) on what we can spend on OTHER PLAYERS. Meaning... you want a decent 1B. We won't have the money because we spent it on catching... the money is spent... no matter how much Tom Pohlad promises to support this team. We have a budget. You would have to trade Caratini just to get the catching room expenditure down to 25 or 26 million. You would have Jeffers at 23 million... Plus, you would have to spend a million on Jackson or Rortvedt. Plus... we would probably have to throw in a million or two to trade CARATINI who signed with us at 7 million because we paid more than the other 29 teams to get him... this means we paid more than other teams were willing to pay. I tend to believe that producing a .220/.312/.315 isn't going to make teams suddenly think that Caratini just proved them wrong. No team is thinking that it was foolish to not be willing to go beyond 2 years 14 million. The Twins exceeded his market value to get him. Having a crappy year makes the gap between his 7 million and what other teams are willing to pay for it... larger. A .220/.312/.315 performance is AVAILABLE FOR WAIVER WIRE PRICES. I'm tired of over paying for catching and getting almost NOTHING out of the investment. We have people on this website who think it's a good idea to invest 30 million on Vazquez and then invest 14 million in Caratini and then invest 23 MILLLION in a QO for Jeffers. None of them are capable of 162 games. I shrug my shoulders and wonder if you all realize the rabbit hole that you are in. Jeffers should have been traded last off-season.
  19. I wouldn't be so sure that he turns down the QO. Nobody is paying 23 million for a catcher. Nobody is paying 23 million for a catcher. They are paying as much as 15. If he declines... You also attach draft pick compensation to his free agency. For a team that is over the tax threshold that draft pick compensation will be larger. That draft pick compensation has value and it could result in less dollars offered. Of course a new CBA is due and I'd guess that draft pick compensation is something MLB can give back to the players for other considerations. However until the new CBA is agreed upon. A 3 year deal at 45 million sounds about right. That could be a 1 year deal at 23 followed by a two or 3 year deal at? I think it's crazy to think that Jeffers will just turn down the QO. You offer it... you better be prepared to pay it.
  20. I hate taking this negative. However... the winner of this yearly reward hasn't produced much trade value over the past decade. Duran and Arraez had decent trade value and I assume Keaschall currently has decent trade value. Ober has some trade value but I would have to stretch to say decent. SWR has none and was booted from the roster, Royce Lewis has no trade value. Dobnak, Cave and Mejia never had any trade value. Getting this back to positive. Despite this rather stunning lack of success at the major league level. Our farm system has been highly ranked in the top ten for the past decade. Ok... that wasn't really positive either. Let's try this: Congrats Connor. You are the first developed left handed starter since Devin Smeltzer. You are the first left hander to make more at least 6 starts since Dallas Kuechel.
  21. I would choose Emma, Jenkins and Keaschall as well. I'd also chose Buxton. I'm just not understanding the did it against bad teams point. Kirby, Wacha, Misorowski, B.Young, Baz, Perez, Mahle, Buehler and Ginn is who he faced in August and that is a nice variety of of starting pitching talent that doesn't suggest bad teams and even if it was a bad team that they pitched for... You still have a professional arm to face. And even if that was a poor sample of starters with 5 plus ERA's across the board... we had hitters who were well below what he was producing against those same starters... including a couple of players that you and I both would choose over him. Neither August nor September matter much to me because it's still a small sample just like his first 37 AB's of low production don't matter much to me either but... in that small sample... IMO... He earned the right to increase the sample. From July 31 on... He had a batting average of .380... it's easy to small sample that batting average away but hard to bad team that number away. Numbers and platoon utilization will probably force him down to AAA to start 2027.
  22. Roden's low point of the season was after 37 AB's on July 30 producing a .451 OPS. I will continue to insist that he looked good struggling. Not chasing... making contact. From there... that looking good while struggling turned into looking good and not struggling. He produced a .858 OPS in August over 28 AB's and while he was starting to roll... he was sent down. Called back up in late September where he got 4 more games in and had a solid 4 games. Turning that .451 OPS into a .769 over 79 AB's. It's too small of a sample to be declarative but he has earned the right to be considered for a 26 man roster spot but it would take some movement of outfielders and it would take a rethinking of our platooning to clear that space. He has an option left so he doesn't have to be forced in. As for bad teams in Mid August. He faced a variety of teams good and bad. Our entire team faced the same teams and he out hit the majority of them. All in all... Roden looked good.
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