Riverbrian

Correa at that dollar figure is certainly going to have consequences and I do agree that Twins can't afford to swing and miss on deals like that. Only the top ten money spenders can afford to swing and miss... that's what money does... it allows you to absorb the bad contract and carry on. However... I'm not ready to call Correa a swing and miss. He may have not lived to the value of the contract but as you said... he still provides value and he's good for the team. I also agree that 34 million off the books would save multiple players that we would like to keep... players like Ryan. I still contend that the biggest financial problem the Twins have is coming from the lack of players making the minimum. The difference between what the Twins are producing from the farm and the numbers the Tigers, Brewers are producing could be around 50 million in available payroll to spend. If you didn't waste that money... You could keep Correa and Ryan, Duran, Jax and still build more aggressively then Ty France on a cheap deal.

You can't really trade Correa... At best... you can give him away. He signed with Minnesota because it was the best offer he could get. Nobody else would pay more. This alone eliminates almost all trade value. Nobody wants to take on the back half of a big contract because those are typically the worst years and especially when the player has under performed in two of the three years in the front half of the contract. To get any value back in a trade for Correa. The Twins will have to include large amounts of cash to make the contract palatable for the other team and we can't afford the cash. The other option would be to provide an additional player instead of the cash they would need to include. That additional player or players would have to have pretty high value and be painful to lose. Much like the Twins did with the Josh Donaldson trade. The Yankees really wanted IKF so they agreed to absorb the Donaldson contract. All in all... in order to get out of the Donaldson deal. It cost them Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt getting back Urshela and Sanchez. Could that be done... I suppose. It would be helpful if Correa wasn't sitting here with an OPS under .700.

Let me correct this. Moveable from a value standpoint. Buxton could get quite a bit in return in regards to the money owed. However... I believe that Buxton has a no trade contract and that likely suggests that he would require a significant raise from the team acquiring him in order for him to waive the no trade. That's why they put no trade into deals... they do it for the leverage. Once he gets a significant raise in order to agree to a deal... the contract isn't as valuable and the return lessens significantly. Buxton at 15 million plus bonuses gets back a lot. Buxton at 30 million AAV doesn't return as much and it gets worse if Buxton's agent demands additional years in the negotiation. Unless... Buxton is willing to give up that leverage, that pay raise, just to escape Minnesota. I don't get the impression that Buxton wants to leave Minnesota. I have no information but I think he would be happy to retire a Twin and I would love to see Byron retire a Twin with a forthcoming statue in the plaza.

I think they can get a decent return. Where I doubt this front office... is the ability to develop what they get back in return.

Correa and Buxton are under contract through 2028. Buxton's contract is moveable... Correa's is not. Lopez is under contract until 2027. My guess is that this front office would like to keep going forward chasing what they can catch while those contracts are in place. My guess is that they don't want to trade Joe Ryan so the can continue the dream. In order to retain Joe Ryan... they will have to: A. Move money elsewhere... perhaps multiple players instead of one player. If you are moving players to clear financial space... Joe Ryan will bring back the biggest return. Perhaps more than the multiple players you are moving for the same financial space. B. Convince the Pohlads that they need another 20 million added to payroll in 2026. C. Convince the new owner that another 20 million added to payroll could make him a hero in Minnesota. Options B and C will be a bad look for a newly appointed President/President of Baseball Operations that I'm sure understood the financial limitations when he took the job. Option A... Will be bad look to the fans who create revenue and it will make winning baseball games harder in 2026. Because whatever money they move to free up cash... they will go from 7 roster spots to fill to 9 roster spots to fill and that will be like shoveling snow while it's still heavily snowing.

I mentioned this in two other topics... including it's own topic "What's Next" It is appropriate to mention this again in this context. How much will Joe Ryan get in arbitration next year? Myself... I don't know but take the best guess that you can. Then take whatever that guess is and add it to the payroll next year. Add in whatever guesses you have on the 9 other Twins due arbitration raises to the payroll next year. Then of course... subtract the expiring contracts , the deduction in pay that Correa will get and dont' forget to factor in that they will have 7 roster spots to fill and then ask yourself with that projected figure in hand. How can the Twins afford what Joe Ryan will get in arbitration? The Twins have painted themselves into a corner. Someone is going to have to go. It's either Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez just to make the money work. It's either Joe Ryan or multiple players.... Like Duran and Jax. The Twins have painted themselves into a corner. Don't expect a new owner to save them. There may be a honeymoon increase in payroll so the fans can applaud the new owner for a brief period of time, there may also not be a honeymoon increase... as they negotiate a sale price between 1.7 Billion and 1.5 billion, discuss the debt that comes with the deal in order to acquire a club with the same revenue market conditions that 20 other teams in baseball have to contend with.

I applaud the effort. It's a first step experiment toward where baseball broadcasts need to be in order to grow. Please continue and work toward making it better. Traditionalists probably didn't like it but the traditionalist will age out the sport if you let them. If you want to hold your audience for 9 innings tomorrow. Figure out how to entertain for 9 innings or you have no chance. Not jut entertainment on the field but entertainment in the booth. Entertainment in whatever nook and cranny you can place it.

If the Twins trade Joe Ryan. Don't stop there... sell everyone. Then kindly exit your office, shut the lights off and don't return. This front office is not the front office that should be in charge of handling an influx of youth.

Your grand plan to create these 6 platoon dance partners in a pretty package will last until the injuries come and make it impossible to maintain the pretty package clean line separation. It takes one injury to make a platoon specialist every day necessary against both hands and not so special anymore.

The splits are real... The platoon advantage is real... The left handed hitter vs left handed pitcher is without question the toughest task of all matchups and the numbers bare that out. It can't be denied. But let's not pretend that right handed hitters are stunningly successful against left handers. Here are the OPS league average numbers for all players on all teams in 2025: LHH vs RHP: .744 RHH vs LHP: .709 RHH vs RHP: .703 LHH vs LHP: .656 Turns out that the right handed hitter vs Left Handers is barely better than the right handed hitter vs right handed pitchers. Turns out that right handed hitters average 53 points higher than left handers vs lefties. On the other hand (pardon the pun)... It also turns out that Left Handed hitters average 41 points higher against right handed pitchers. THESE ARE BOTH PLATOON ADVANTAGES let me repeat that... these are both platoon advantages. But our Twins live in fear of the one that exists only 25% of the time. As you can all see... It turns out that everybody struggles against left handed pitching. Left handed pitchers against every hitter regardless of the box the batter stands in produces a league average OPS of .693. While Right Handed pitchers average .723 against all human beings standing on whatever side of the plate. Yet we have a front office and Manager that will kill every left handed batter before they can even get their career started and they continue down that path willfully year after year, announcing every off season that they are looking for a right handed outfielder despite having 10 right handed hitters already on the roster so they can continue to cower in fear of the .656 of LHH vs LHP while ignoring the .744 produced by LHH vs RHP. We are so afraid of that low number that occurs 25 percent of the time we are willing to sacrifice the high number 75% of the time by over loading the roster with righties and looking for more. Not just sacrifice the high number that occurs 75% of the time but also sacrifice their young developing left handed hitters in the process. By playing the split right... THEY ARE PLAYING IT WRONG, And to make things even worse... Despite the platoon splits that we can all see and I'm sure they have seen them because they sure have overweighted that low .656 number and built a roster that suggests that low .656 is their sole focus. To make things worse. THE TEAM DOESN'T HAVE A SINGLE LEFT HANDED STARTER IN THEIR ROTATION despite a clear 30 point advantage held by left hander pitchers compared to right handed pitchers. As a matter of fact... They haven't had a left handed starter since Dallas Kuechel showed up and made 6 starts in 2023. If they were so afraid of this split... that they would kill all left handed hitters... then why are they not taking advantage of it on the MOUND!!! I get it... The Twins care deeply about this... .they do not want left hander hitters facing left handed pitching because .656 is a low number... Does it not work in reverse? We don't want left handed pitching working the majority of innings as starters to put the shoe on the other hand (Pardon the Pun). I mean C'mon, Let's get real, we believe in this.. why don't we attack our opponents with the same problem we are so steadfastly committed to solving and compromising prospects to solve. They overweight this set of data so drastically that it negates every other data set known to man. Good against sinkers... not good against sinkers... Doesn't matter... He's left handed. Ignore that sinker data stuff, we can't take all these numbers seriously... we gotta focus on what's most important and we will steadfastly adhere to preventing the .656 at all costs. And as it turns out... they STAND ALONE in this overweighting of a single platoon advantage that shows its face 25% of the time. NO TEAM IN BASEBALL platoons left handers this severely and absolutely. You all want to fire the front office and burn the manager at the stake but you'll stand here and defend the right to hire cheap right handed crap to continue the year by year compromising of developing left handed hitters. Larnach can't hit lefties. Case closed. But... Hey... that's alright. Keep bringing in that LEFTY KILLER for 4 million dollars. Let's Pay Larnach 8 million in arbitration next year and handcuff him to that lefty killer for 4 million. That's a good idea for a team with 6 pre-arb players and a limited budget. I know all this stuff is boring. Larnach can't hit lefties. Wallner can't hit lefties... Margot can. That .656 is a low number... Case closed. In consideration of that .656 number... Wouldn't it be funny if the player with the most at bats against the left handers in all of baseball in 2025 was a left handed hitter. It is funny and I'm rolling on the floor. It is a left hander... a pure left hander with a .572 OPS against left handed pitchers. Jarren Duran with 136 AB's. Wait a second... the top 6 batters with the most AB's vs left handed pitchers are all left handed hitters.. Durren, Devers, Ohtani, Wood, Kwan and Schwarber are 1 through 6. Nootbaar, Tucker, Arraez, Donovan, Yelich, Henderson, PCA, Lowe and Albies are all in the top 20. That's 15 left handed hitters out of the top 20 in AB's against left handed pitchers. 10 of those 15 are below the .656. I'll bold the 10 players. I get it... The Red Sox, Guardians, Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, Orioles, Cubs, Nats and Braves probably don't have access to the same data our Twins have. I don't know if Larnach will ever be able to hit left handers. But I do know this... He got 23 scattered PA's against them in 2024 and 21 scattered PA's against them in 2023. Go ahead and tell me how this Trevor Larnach guy is complicit in this tragedy. Go ahead and point at the number and say see... look Riverbrian... those 44 AB's say it all.. Case Closed. Go ahead and tell me that he had poor splits in the minors... That's great... Case Closed... Let's take a 23 year old, dip him in cement because there is no chance of him improving at anything from age 24 to 27. I know we have coaches but let's be honest... they don't do anything. They are playing cards in the clubhouse. The players are not in the cage working on things. they are playing XBox in the hotel. Players don't improve from 24 to 27. What they are at 23... is what they will be forever. I get it. Jenkins... Emma... You think they will be treated different. We'll see. I'll wrap this up with this... and I will mean it with 100% sincerity. I am the worlds biggest Twins fan. If I'm not the biggest... I'm top 5. As much as I have devoted my life to this organization. As much as I base the enjoyment of my summer on the ups and downs of the Twins. If I had a son who was a left handed hitter projected to be drafted in the top three rounds. I would drop on my knees and pray that the Twins DON'T select him. At least not by this front office.

My wife wouldn't let me in the kitchen for decades. I spent 9 months on my own in Grand Rapids Michigan where I suddenly had to learn to cook for myself. I wasn't Wolfgang Puck on day one. I wasn't Wolfgang Puck by month one either. Eventually got to the point where I could make delicious scrambled eggs (using an entire stick of butter was the secret to make them light, fluffy and flavorful). I came back home after the job was done and my wife still won't let me in the Kitchen. But I'd like to get better at it. Nope... I got it. He's been starved from left handers for two years. But... that's OK... Here's your chance... Perform NOW.... RIGHT NOW... DAMN IT. It's universally agreed that left handed hitters have the hardest time against left hander pitchers so you hide your left handed hitters for two years and say... OK...Now. Go Ahead... Blow my socks off against the hardest of all split advantages. Hey this isn't working. We will stop. Someone get me a Jonah Bride. Hopefully you can get a Joc Pederson type one year deal when you reach free agency. I ask the question of all of you... I question the front office. Have the Twins just plain failed to produce a left handed hitter who can hit left handed pitching adequately. Other teams are developing players who face left handed pitching to varying degrees of success. Are the Twins simply the worst team in baseball at this specific area of baseball development? Serious question because we have to deploy Christian Vazquez against every left hander so Ryan Jeffers can DH against every left hander just so EVERY LEFT HANDED hitter doesn't. Is this a philosophy that the Twins have adopted or do we absolutely suck at training our left handed hitters so they can be as good as... I don't know... how about... Sal Frelick. In the end... Who cares... We will keep compromising our left handed hitters so we can just sign another Manual Margot to cover for 4 million.

I generally don't have a problem with options being used when players have options. I mostly have a problem with players getting called up and being pre-determined to sit and watch because of lack of faith from his manager or a severe lack of development from the organization. That problem that I have only grows to double/triple in size when a player without options, who can't be sent down is simply allowed to continue with average at best, many times below average, sometimes way below average numbers. We have one player in my opinion who shouldn't leave the lineup ever. Byron Buxton, the rest can give a day up here and there to foster competition. Bottom Line to Me: If they can miss on Julien to the downside and they do. This can't be argued... they miss frequently to the downside. Why can't they miss on a McCusker or Fitzgerald to the upside? Of course in those cases... we will never know because they get 4 AB's never to be seen again. But that's OK... because the front office/manager can pick them out of pile just like they did with Julien. I'm never pining for a specific player like McCusker... I never want to get into a discussion about opinions of McCusker. If not McCusker... somebody... anybody has to rise up from the farm and fill these spaces adequately. I don't know who but it starts with whoever was given a 26 man roster spot. I don't have the exact number but there are probably close to 400 pre-arb players across major league baseball on 26 man rosters right now. Very few of them are in Minnesota.

There are so few I can have discussions like this with and I appreciate it as well. How do the Twins know what is the best lineup? They don't. Don't get me wrong... they do this for a living and they are better at it then you or I. They have more access to data to put together intelligent guesses. However, putting the best lineup together is next to impossible and their evaluation mistakes every year, every month for that matter are clearly visible for all to see. Eduard Julien for example. They departed the off-season with Julien as the chosen guy. They didn't search for better, they thought he was their guy. Maybe he is but he certainly wasn't and now he is in St. Paul still trying to become what they thought he could be. Kody Clemons for example. When they signed him out of necessity. They were down Wallner, Castro and Keaschall just got plunked by a pitch. Despite the rash of injuries... He still only got inches of playing time for a couple of weeks until there was nobody left to turn to when Buxton and Correa collided. He is inserted into the lineup because Rocco has nobody left and he becomes one of the best hitters in baseball for two weeks. They may have signed him with some belief in his abilities or lack of faith in what was available on the farm but that belief didn't translate to opportunity until there was no one left to turn to. His bat has calmed down a bit since but Rocco believes enough now to keep giving him opportunity. This was another missed assessment and I don't blame them because this type of stuff happens to every organization. I just believe that the only thing that can fix that is to utilize all 13 roster spots and create actual competition so a Clemons can rise. You can go back to every season and see the mistakes every organization makes. Rooker was a missed assessment. Celestino was a missed assessment. There is a huge pile of possibilities of player skils in the middle and the differences are slight. Hard lines are drawn on thin margins. The only solution in my mind is to keep your 26 man roster spots in competition with each other. Don't ever waste a spot. Basically... If the manager doesn't trust a player on the roster to give up a mere 4 AB's in one game out of 6.000 in a season because they might be slightly compromised for that one game. Get that player off the roster and give the manager someone he will believe in and allow to compete. If you don't have sufficient answers on the farm... you've got a development problem and you end up with year after year of Margot's. I was against the Clemons signing mainly because the faith in Clemons over faith in the farm is concerning to me but at the same time... Clemons is also a good example of what can happen with opportunity. It's why I think it's a huge deal that McCusker and Fitzgerald watched from the bench. It's not that I believed in McCusker or Fitzgerald specifically, it that we are wasting these roster spots and these roster spots should be used to try and get better even if just incrementally better. That's why I say being concerned about wasting 4 AB's out of 6,000 in a season and not being concerned about wasting 1 roster spot out 13 is a mistake. It's too focused on today. Providing opportunity for players you believe are good enough for one of those 26 spots costs the minimum. One day of playing time spread across a roster of average players will do the trick.

I like hearing that Rocco is playing the match ups in regards to Clemens and France. Use of data other than the left/right split data that had seemingly trumped all other data. How can I argue the logic that Rocco needs to put the best lineup out there. I really can't argue that statement. But I'll ask the question... how do you know who the best lineup is? Was Royce Lewis part of that best lineup a month ago? Is Matt Wallner? How come Kody Clemons isn't suffering the same fate Jonah Bride is suffering. 4 AB's out of 6,000? WIlli Castro gets on base 36% of the time. Royce Lewis gets on base 28% of the time. We are so afraid someone might be 28% that we allow 28% because we think he will 36%.

Once a series I will post the number of players on the opposing team that have 3 years or less experience. I do this so anyone inclined can easily compare and contrast. The Cubs are one of the few teams that compare with the Twins in regards to the youth on their roster. The Cubs came to Target Field with 9 pre-arb players (less then 3 years experience) which is ranked near the bottom. The Twins are now up to 11 players with less than 3 years experience. The Cubs are currently 54-37 The Twins are 44-47 Cubs payroll is about 192M . The Twins payroll is 145M

Nice job with the predictions. I'd have Martin up yesterday if Rocco would schedule playing time for him because he ain't doing it for Keirsay. I'll contend until I can't contend anymore that we do not have a roster that prevents the utilization of 13 players. We have a roster that makes the utilization of 13 players necessary. And I would prefer a rotation to a platoon. I think Clemons/France is turning more into a rotation than platoon. With a tonight's lineup... it appears that we are back to all lefties sit.

Could be The only argument to your post is that Falvey extended Baldelli and has kept his guy in place for many years now. So... I'm going to point my finger above Baldelli's head. If Falvey has bigger development dreams, then Rocco is allowing, he is offering an extension that is counter to the direction the front office wants (needs) to go. In the end... Falvey has to approach Joe or the other Pohlads and ask for 20 million every year or so... just to roster 5 or 6 low cost vets to enable his manager to work with the personnel he desires. Meanwhile, the Larnach's and Wallners are in arbitration or reaching arbitration unable to hit left handed pitchers, the Royce Lewis first pick overall in the draft is reaching arbitration carrying a year long slump on his back. Jeffers will have to catch 100% of the games next year and will be backed up by Chance Sisco or something. A DFA find developed by other organizations like Castro is reaching free agency and now beyond our price point. The DFA find developed by other organizations like Kody Clemons are about to reach arbitration as well. We are about to transition into 2026 with Lee, Keashall, Wallner pre-arb and that's it, no budget, holes that need filling on the 26 man and a bunch of question marks on the farm, plus a manager (Front Office) only willing to give select young players sink or swim opportunities because he feels he can't afford to take Ty France and Christian Vazquez out of the lineup for a single game because... if he takes Ty France out of the lineup, the team won't be able to keep up with the Brewers or Tigers who are beating him anyway with 18 players developed primarily by their farm system. I gotta look Falvey in the eye on this one.

Yes: Catchers are overpays... If the Padres are desperate enough to need to fill the catching position they will need to over pay for it. Therefore... Yes... the consideration of trading Jeffers should be considered because you are taking advantage of the market conditions. No: The Twins have failed to take advantage of this market by not producing catching from their system. It is to the point that they don't have a reasonable replacement for Vazquez when he leaves after this season and therefore also don't have a reasonable replacement for Jeffers when he leaves the year after that. Bottom Line: You take advantage of the catching market conditions by trading Jeffers which then necessitates an immediate being taken advantage of... with those same market conditions acquiring his replacement plus the need to replace Vazquez. This is called treading water and the Twins have been treading water for too long. Keep Jeffers... the organization has left themselves no choice. Sleep in the bed that they made.

That's the million dollar question and I wish I knew the answer. Are the Twins just failing to develop MLB talent? Or have they limited opportunity by becoming more reliant on players developed by other organizations. Or are they simply betting all chips on the wrong horses? Either way or combination of... we got a problem with the bill coming due. On paper... in order to have 15 pre-arb players making the minimum on your roster like other teams are able to compete with... you have to produce an average of 5 a year. If you are not producing 5 a year... you are paying extra for the shortfall. Can't sign decent free agents because of budget and you don't have faith in what your farm is doing to fill the spaces adequately. That's a bad combination. That's 2 out of 3 avenues of talent acquisition compromised. And I can't rule out the possibility of those 2 avenues being compromised INTENTIONALLY in order to milk just enough out of the current year. If those two avenues are not getting the job done. The only avenue left is: Trade the decent talent you have for players developed by other organizations that have a low price tag? That's the start of a rebuild. The bill is coming due.

Something interesting will probably have to be done. On the top end, the prospect bottle neck may need to be removed due to multiple 26 man spots to fill and the financial limitations that are most likely in place. If they don't turn the kids loose (which they haven't thus far)... They may need to move some of our arb guys like Larnach to free some financial flexibility just to bring in the low cost vet filler again. On the other side of the coin. How many seasoned prospects (Miranda, Gasper, McCusker) will need to be jettisoned to make room for the low cost vet filler and the prospects requiring protection from rule 5 come December. If we don't reset at the major league level. We may have to do a reset at the minor league level as a new batch of prospects join the 40 man. I'm concerned that one Luke Keaschall produced in 2025 will not be enough to cover 2026 needs.

Love your posts.

Personally... I'd go with your plan. The Twins? It would be out of character to release two vets and introduce this much youth. I'd be ok with it.

Thanks for pointing that out. You are correct. The original 19M in Arb would be coming off the books. I did not factor that in.

That's a hard question for me to answer. I'm really trying to keep away from speculation on individual prospects so my participation in any kind of ranking wouldn't be worth much. However, I can tell you that youth doesn't scare me at all. They cause me not one bit of concern so the answer is none of them. I get that sense of security from watching the other 29 teams. Youth is performing quite well around the league. When I watch the Twins... I am suddenly concerned about all of them. We are behind. despite every a consistently high ranked farm system for quite some time... we are behind our peers.

I don't know. Joe Ryan was 14th ranked in the Rays system at the time of the deal. The Rays didn't know what they had. No way... the Rays make this deal if given the chance to turn back time. I think Willi Castro could fetch a 14th or higher ranked guy. I think possibly a top ten guy. There is just no way that another team will throw in a Drew Stotman. Unless the Twins add a Calvin Faucher. 😁