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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Lewis Jersey Giveaway . . . Errr, Buxton Tshirt Giveaway!
Riverbrian replied to MN Brian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I had the date circled for the Jersey. Still going... A little disappointed that it's no longer a jersey but a Buxton T-Shirt I will still wear proudly. And I'll be at the Saints game that night. Just eating a regular amount of food while Joey Chestnut goes nuts. I would have wanted to wear my new Lewis Jersey to the Saints game and watch Lewis play. -
Last Game Right Handed Starter May 31 - Braxton Ashcraft - Loss - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH - 2 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 19-21 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.50 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70
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Last Game Right Handed Starter May 30 - Mitch Keller - Loss - 9 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH - 2 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starter: 19-20 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH: 4.54 -------------------------------------------------------------- eason Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70
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Agreed... If you look at the production that the Blue Jays got from Berrios and the contract they gave Berrios... it can almost be... 6 or half dozen. I don't think you win trades when they are made. You win the trades by developing what you acquire or you win trades by getting that player that puts you over the top. So... if Berrios didn't impress on the Blue Jays side of things. The bar is low for the Martin and SWR combo on the Twins side of things. Not sailing over the low bar... would be a concern.
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Last Game Right Handed Starter May 29 - Jared Jones - Loss - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH - 3 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 19-19 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.42 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70
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Joe Ryan and the Elephant in the Room
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I said multiple times during the off-season that I would have traded Joe Ryan at peak value. I thought it was incredibly risky to wait. However... I have a new thought that just occurred to me after I read the TD article from Sam Caulder about slow playing their prospects. Here's the new thought. Perhaps Joe Ryan wasn't at Peak Value this off-season or at peak value now. Is it possible that the value of his two years of service time remaining was compromised by concern over a lengthy lockout? If front offices are taking that into consideration it would stand to reason that the price is going to be much lower. If they are just going to get this year out of him. Theoretically... it makes sense... what I don't know is... do front offices think there will be a work stoppage and are front offices acting accordingly. -
I have the same assumption. They would have to walk in... not run.
- 86 replies
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- joe ryan
- ryan jeffers
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If the players association agrees to this. I hope they do It will get interesting on both ends of the spectrum. Yes the Twins and other clubs will be required to increase payroll. However... the Dodgers and Mets and others are going to have to seriously decrease payroll. The Dodgers are going to have to figure out how to trade Mookie Betts to Minnesota or Pittsburgh or Tampa or wherever. Normally a contract like Betts with 7 years left and 233 million to pay out for a 33 year old would be close to unmovable at least not for any significant value unless the Dodgers ate a bunch of money. Could the big contract turn into a bidding war as team try to get up to the floor as the Dodgers are forced to give up significant talent and with multiple teams desperate to reach the floor? Is it possible... that teams will need to pay more to acquire larger contracts. I don't know but the push pull from both sides of the ledger is certainly going to be interesting.
- 86 replies
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- joe ryan
- ryan jeffers
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Last Game Right Handed Starter May 28 - Davis Martin - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Starters Season Record vs RH Starters: 19-18 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.41 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70
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Last Game Right Handed Starter May 27 - David Sandlin - Loss - Runs Scored 2 Lineup Composition: 4 RH - 2 Switch - 3 Left Season Record vs RH Starters: 19-17 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starter: 4.47 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70
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I'd be hesitant to add anyone like Jenkins or Culpepper who don't have to be added until December 27. I'd be hesitant to waste options or even service time if on the 26 man. With that said... Put me in the very small group of people who think that there will not be a lock out. Just a lot of threats and tough talk until an agreement comes together. Both sides should understand the damage done by teaching fans to live without baseball for the summer.
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Hats off to the Twins. It doesn't matter how I feel about the bullpen. Or what I would have done in the off-season instead of what they did. It hasn't been a disaster. If the season ended today. We would be heading to Sacramento for the playoffs. 3 teams from the Central would be in. The 6 playoff teams would be: Rays Guardians A's Yankees White Sox Twins If you take the Yankees out of that group of 6. Not a lot of money spent on the other 5. Plenty of furlongs left in this horse race. Golden Tempo is sitting back there somewhere.
- 58 replies
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- derek shelton
- byron buxton
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Last Game Right Handed Starter May 26 - Sean Burke - Won - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH - 2 Switch - 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 19-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starter: 4.54 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70
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It's all good. Regardless of my disagreement with their off-season direction. My summer enjoyment is heavily influenced by how my Twins do. So... a toast. Here's to a semi-enjoyable Summer! Go ARCIA!!! 😉 I can't speak for Ash but... his thoughts are worthy of consideration. I think it's a good idea that he is directing his research to runs because a run produced is the ultimate goal of every stat that just busies up the statistical landscape. Ash is sitting down with a pen and paper and tracking run production. Most on Twinsdaily are not looking where Ash looks and I appreciate that. He is looking at the numbers and wondering out loud why the table setters are not scoring more runs. I don't know... it's a good question... why are the power hitters producing more runs. ISO just might be the place to look. To his point... I may not a big fan of Isolated power in itself because I think the simple out or no out is really the most important stat on the planet. I just don't like ISO taking out all those singles especially when singles are so prevalent... about two singles to every 1 extra base hit as a league average. With that said... ISO is probably a good thing to check in regards to runs. He may be on to something. One fact has always stuck with me and this fact has influenced my thinking in regards to almost everything. The fact that the average OBP is .320. Basically it means that 1 out of 3 hitters reach base and the real good ones are still getting out 3 out of 5 times. We often look at the numbers... this one is high... this one is low but 1 out of 3 reaching base on average basically means that the game is naturally inclined toward zero runs scored in any given inning. It will take 3 singles to score a run. You have to get those three singles before you get three outs. The outs are constantly reducing your odds as each out occurs. The odds of 3 positive events is longer than 2 positive events in the race against the outs. One extra base hit and now you are down to two events before the 3 out clock runs out. That is an incredible odds changer. Maybe what Ash is leading us toward. Just a theory... Maybe...Players with high ISO score more runs because an extra base hit puts you in scoring position where one more event can bring you across the plate. Where as a single may still require two more events to score and those three outs are just a buzzer waiting to go off. Because again... 1 out of 3 reach base on average. This means... on average... you ain't scoring a run without an extra base hit. No doubt in my mind. Slugging is much much bigger than OBP.
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My apologies. My comment toward yours was indirect. I can't speak for Ashbury but speaking for myself the discussion level on Twinsdaily just craters when statements are countered with the extreme. It's dismissing his legitimate thought with ridiculous. It's a lack of respect. Ashbury doesn't deserve that. I'm hope you know that Ashbury knows the difference between Aaron Judge and Luke Keaschall. If he doesn't... he has spent way too much money on those saber conventions he attends. I don't disagree with the point you made. Keaschall is what we have right now. Here's to hoping he can continue to add to his game. Anyway... I didn't mean to offend.
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Agreed What do I mean by OBP supporting lower slugging. I just think that OBP is a nice place to start for the simple reason of not making outs. But... as you point out... it doesn't necessarily equate to runs scored and ultimately... slugging is what will drive the bus and as long as the slug component is missing... there should be internal pressure to find that better player In the meantime as long as he is low bar challenged by what have been nearly free players to acquire. Keaschall and his OBP... his major league minimum cost is going to have to do. He's cheap and making outs less than the average guy. I also think if he can steal some bases cause a little havoc on the base paths... that's another plus tool and one the Twins don't have a lot of. On Twinsdaily... points often get lost by the all or nothing crowd. You try to make a point and someone throws Ohtani at you. It's a dial not a switch. Keashcall doesn't have to be Soto... Developing a slightly above average player may not be the goal but developing an above average player is better than paying 7 million for an average vet on a one year contract who is also slugging around .400. Keaschall is the guy until someone else comes along. Will they allow someone else to come along?
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Banda has hung enough zeroes that I don't worry about him that much. 9 of his 15 earned runs occurred in a 3 game stretch over the span of a week. April 8 to April 15. Giving up 9 runs over 3.33 Innings is a 24.32 ERA. If he hung zeroes for his next five appearances he could get it back down to an unsightly 9.00. 5 appearances could be two weeks time. It is going to take quite a few innings to bring that sky high ERA back down. 5.96 is actually good considering how bad a stretch that was. He had another bad outing against the Blue Jays on May 2nd... those 4 appearances make up 12 of his 15 earned runs. 4 real bad appearances out of 25. Zeroes hung in 18 out of 25. I've seen worse. I don't worry about him much.
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Loved watching Keaschall play in 2025. Breath of fresh air on a team of stale air. April was rough... It was rough for Austin Riley as well. May was much better and closer to what we need out of Keaschall. In May... His OBP is high enough to support lower slugging. I'm not sure Keaschall will be a slug guy so he has to be an on-Base guy... Take some extra bases, steal some bases while not making outs. In April he was neither and I appreciate throwing out the outlier because bad Aprils can happen to anyone. I agree with you. You know that there is value in not making outs. But the three run homer produces the crooked number. If Keaschall is not a slugging guy... he shouldn't be all eggs in one basket. He should need to look over his shoulder. And I am fan of his.
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Last Game Left Handed Starter May 25 - Anthony Kay - Loss - 1 Run Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 2 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs Left Handed Starters 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Accumulated Stats vs Right Handed Starters Season Record vs RH Starter: 18-16 Season Average Runs Scorer vs RH Starter: 4.53
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Last Game Right Handed Starter May 24 - Sonny Gray - Won - 6 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH - 3 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 18-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.53 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs Left Handed Starter: 8-11 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.89
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With Moran the opener and Bello the bulk guy... I had to make a decision here. Was this a left handed start or a right handed start. True... it was a left hander in Moran that started the game but I believe that Shelton set his lineup to the right hander and the starting lineup is the primary thing I'm looking at. Trevor Larnach's presence in the lineup pretty much confirms it. With Gray out and Arcia up. The Twins lineup composition is 7 RH - 3 Switch - 3 LH. Larnach is not going to start against a left handed pitcher with only 3 LH hitters on the roster. I'm going to list this result in the Right Handed Pitcher column. Last Game Right Handed Bulk PItcher May 23 - Moran/Bello - Won - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH - 3 Switch - 2 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 17-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.48 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs Left Handed Starter: 8-11 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.89
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Kudo's Nick... You are one of the best writers here. Great article... perfectly timed of for the who/what we should be watching right now. Kody Clemens. The guy hasn't actually felt the love from these pages. But... 19 home runs... in all his streakiness... in spite of his low on base percentage. 19 home runs... is nothing to sneeze at. His on-base percentage has come up... slugging has come down. But... the guy is battling. Go get em Kody! Ryan Kriedler... if he hits the baseball. If he surprises anyone and becomes a decent hitter. With this incredible opportunity that has been handed to him. If he demonstrates enough talent to consider keeping. Like you mentioned... he isn't Arb Eligible until 2028. If you can spare the 40 man space and 26 man space. You gotta hope that some young prospects rise up and pressure that 40 an space so Kriedler is gonna need to be decent with the bat. He is decent defensively... I haven't seen the hyped up defense I've been reading about but he is clearly decent defensively. Tristan Gray is the same story as Kriedler. Kriedler has got to be good and so does Gray. As long as Lewis is down... It should be... Mr. Kriedler, Mr. Gray, Mr. Arcia. Let's move Brooks over to 3B and let's see what you got. The front office signed these guys for a reason. They see something that made them choose them as a safety net. Safety nets are always needed in the free falling sport of baseball. Role players... little platoons... they will be forced into the lineup eventually so you might as well staff it with as good as you can find. You rostered them... this was always going to be necessary. Alex Jackson: I'm pulling for him. It's not like the Twins organization catcher depth chart has eased the necessity for someone... anyone. The addition of Tait still leaves... in the meantime... immediate depth concerns. Yeodrys Gomez... Keep throwing him out there. That's a live arm... that's exactly what we should be searching for in the rebuild of this bullpen. Let's see if he can look like he did against Houston again. This bullpen needs to find the finds. Edit: He scared the hell out of me this afternoon. He got a little cattywampus... he's got get that under control. Clemens is the most likely. Gomez I'd put him 2nd if he doesn't get cattywampus. I don't have a 3rd.
- 29 replies
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- kody clemens
- ryan kreidler
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