Riverbrian

1. There is very little doubt now that the Twins will be using a traditional 5 man rotation and I now consider the odds of using the Tampa model an extreme long shot. So much so, I will no longer consider the possibility. I had considered it a possibility up until Dec 31st, 2019. 2. I'm not sure the front office sees it this way but I think it is important to look at this from the opposite direction now. By opposite I mean, Hill and Bailey will obviously be utilized as primaries, but they need to be seen as depth/insurance more so than Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Balzovic or Chalmers. I know this may be confusing but... Here's why. 3. It should be clear to everyone, the front office, fans and people who don't even pay attention to baseball that acquiring a top end starter via free agency or trade is extremely difficult to do. The combination of freewill and competition for that particular product makes it very risky to be counted on as a plan A for addressing needs or concerns in any off-season, no matter the money or prospect resources you have. I'm not saying the Twins will never, should or should not ever. I'm not saying that players don't want to come to Minnesota, I'm not making a budget statement, I'm not making a large market or small market comparison. I'm saying anything is always possible but i'm saying that it's hard and unpredictable due to freewill and competition, hard enough that the signing or trading of a top end starter shouldn't be considered a primary plan. It should be pursued like a primary plan but not considered a primary plan because the odds are low and you lack total control over the outcome. 4. We started 2019 knowing that 3 of our first 5 starters in our rotation were about to enter free agency. It ended up being 4 by the end of 2020. If no one else is added, we will start 2020 knowing that 3 of our first 5 starters in our rotation are about to enter free agency. We can't keep doing this. 5.. Once you consider point 3 and if you believe point 4 can't be done year over year. There is only one way out, you must develop your own starters and it has to happen this year. We must find our own version of Civale or Paddack and we must do it this year. Find one Civale or Paddack type pitcher from our farm and we are down to needing 2 instead of 3 next year. Find one and we are not as worried about weather Bailey performs this year. You will never find the replacement if average vets are preferred customers. 6. Focus has to shift to finding at least one starter from our system. Bailey and Hill become the insurance in this scenario. Just in case we fail to identify one pitcher who can perform from the farm, we still got Bailey and Hill. 7. Pineda will be out until May missing at least 7 starts. Hill could potential miss half a season if not more so let's say 17 starts.That's 24 starts already needed out of pitchers 6 through whatever on the depth chart. Last year we got 16 starts total outside of the top 5 so we are already entering the season requiring more from our depth. 8. If Dobnak or whoever is performing at the major league level, let them continue performing at the major league level. If Duran or Balzovic is knocking on the door at Rochester... OPEN THE DOOR. 9. Do not let any of the chosen 5 (Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill, Bailey) suck for an extended period of time. No repeat of the Martin Perez, going back to a dry well over and over again and forsaking anybody else in the process in order to go back to the dry well over and over again. 10. With the signing of Hill and Bailey... the front office has just made the discovery of 2020 talent out of Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Balzovic or Chalmers much much much more important than if Bailey is able to break 100 OPS+ or if Hill is able to earn those incentives. Bailey and Hill should be considered insurance.

My assumption is: They will have to trade the prospects that they didn't want to trade last August. This is only an assumption.

Agreed. Dismissing them is a mistake even if you end up being right.

The White Sox might suck... they might be great and they may fall somewhere in between. The roster they have could be justified for all 3 results.

Agreed... just not at the start of the year. There will be plenty of injury and poor performance for the depth to rise past. Civale didn’t start the season but he pitched well enough to start the following season. The Twins should go get two unless they are using the Tampa model and if they are using the Tampa model they will need more bullpen... and they should stop reading Twinsdaily for awhile. Because it will get loud in here.

Yeah Exactly I still can't explain Portland, North Dakota or Grand Island Nebraska.

Deepen that thing!!! Keep going... bring in the arms!

Thad Lavine offering to personally come by the house with Pizza and Beer to box up the dishes and the Sno-Cone maker X-mas gift unused from 5 years ago would certainly work with any free agent.

They show up all the time when given the opportunity. From Altuve to Muncy to Santander to Goodrum to Aristides Aquino to Edman to Voit to Danny Santana. The lack of opportunity is what makes it seem like they don't happen very often, they are often blocked by Vets who are allowed to fluctuate, perhaps more than the possible fluctuation that yoy say is possible from Arraez. And you are right Arraez isn't a lock to repeat his performance. When he gets the call. Give him AB's, If he performs let him continue.

I am a big believer in this front office. However, here's the deal. Need is a funny thing. When you place yourself in a position of need, you expose yourself to the possibility of being a victim of freewill. The Twins or any intending team that needs to jump into the free agent waters are exposed to the possibility of their preferred free agent having Arizona Horse Dreams and they can't do anything about that. Except not put themselves in the position of having that need. We got need this year. If this taxes future years. That future tax or risk that Ryu is dead money in the 4th year or possibly every year of the contract must be baked in because we have need NOW and they got to do do something. As the solid free agent options fall off the board, they are forced to trade now. The trade will cost us prospects, those same prospects that they didn't want to part with back in Late July 2019. I'll wait until the team breaks camp to be fully critical but the FA door is about to close and Orange Pylons will be placed in that lane.

Dobnak might work out great. I'm not going to stand here and doubt him. I'm pulling for him. However, it is unnecessarily risky to hand him an opening day rotation spot after 28 innings because if he if he sophomore slumps it, then where do we go? We still have him and he can be the guy we turn to if someone else without options doesn't work out. Why spend your depth instead of money?

Between "Just You-n-Me". "I've been searchin so long" for a post like that. A post that can "Make me Smile".

He's a Free Agency must (or Kuechel)... that can't be denied. They can also trade for pitchers but that will only perpetuate the cycle of needing to over pay for a Ryu type in the future because they will lose the guys who can become the people who make the future Ryu type unnecessary. Either way... you gotta pay with something to get something and we need something. We got cash to spend right now... I'd spend it.

In my opinion... This is the most important article written thus far in the off season on Twinsdaily. I'll start by saying that Minnesota clearly did not trust Dobnak to start a playoff game... They were left with no option but to start Dobnak in a playoff game because of Perez Performance, Gibson Sickness and Pineda Suspension. Because they didn't trust Dobnak in a playoff game, they were forced to hold back key members of the bullpen in Game 1 to plan for needing key members in Game 2 because they didn't anticipate Dobnak giving us multiple innnings. This led to the usage of Stashak in game 1 after Berrios didn't throw enough innings and Littell got nervous. So they threw Stashak in a close playoff game because they had Dobnak in game two. And they threw Stashak after not trusting Stashak in high leverage situations during the regular season. This all happened because they minimized the use of Dobnak and Smeltzer and placed all hope in Perez turning it around and this did not happen. Not to mention, they had to be aware of Gibson's E Coli issues. I started talking about all of this last June. The 5 man rotation was doing fine as of June and our posters were primarily focused on the bullpen when talking about trade deadline needs. I felt back in June, that the bullpen need would become much much worse, if we had to depend on the bullpen more. And we would need to depend on that bullpen more if anything happened to anyone in the rotation. And anything happening to anyone in the rotation was almost sure to happen because nobody goes through the season with a healthy 5. So I stated that... yes we need bullpen help at the deadline but our number one need is going to be a starter because as of June... we were relying on our starters to carry the bulk of the water. Not only did we need to identify or trade for a 6th (or 7th or 8th) starter for 2019 success. Any longer range planning into 2020 would be a neon sign that we would have to make some off-season acquisitions since 3 of our starters were pending FA's. So this made the acquisition of a starter with at least an extra year of control... extremely important. At the trade deadline, when no starter was acquired, Perez was already in a funk. His ERA had soared over 5 and the possibility of Perez being a poor choice for a playoff roster was an absolute possibility at the end of July based on his performance, along with the possibility that I mentioned in June, of any of the other 4 pitchers getting hurt (or suspended). So once the deadline passed without any acquisitions... They committed themselves to finding depth from their own system. Who is the better MAJOR LEAGUE Pitcher? Dobnak? Smeltzer? Graterol? Thorpe? Who is it? I don't know but they needed to find out but they remained committed to the starting 5 including Perez who was clearly struggling. And just to be clear... the front office doesn't have this down to a science. No front office does. If they had it down. Nick Anderson would be in a Twins uniform today and Martin Perez would have been on the playoff roster. The only way you find out if they can help you in the playoffs... is by handing them the ball. Once the trade deadline passed... Smeltzer or Dobnak should have been placed immediately into the rotation, taking the place of Perez. I was worried that they would reach the playoffs with Perez still being Perez and any of the other 4 or two of the other 4 getting hurt in September and this will force the Twins to simply toss a guy with minimal MLB innings into an important playoff role... and... this is exactly what happened. So for 2020... here is what they need to do. 1. Decide if you are going to go with a traditional 5 man rotation or use the Rays model (Which I'm fine with). 2. If they go with the traditional 5 man rotation. Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol and Thorpe are DEPTH. Get two more starters. They can choose one of the 4 to show what they can do in April while Pineda sits out his suspension but under no circumstances can they justify any thought of trusting Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol or Thorpe after going out of their way to not trust them last season. All any of them had to do last season was pitch better than the 5 plus ERA that Perez was providing and the organization did not elevate any of them above Perez until the final second of choosing a playoff roster. Nothing will have changed in the off-season to just hand the keys to a pitcher that they wouldn't hand the keys to in August of last year with a playoff breeze coming through the window. You can't say... we didn't trust them in August or the playoffs really but now we trust them to get an opening day roster spot so we don't have to acquire someone better. Especially with a team that has realistic playoff considerations going into the season. 3. If they go with the Rays Model... OK... but get serious about the bullpen. Don't plug and play here... You better be on Betances and others because you've just gone from needing 8 bullpen arms to needing 10 or 11. 4. The front office and manager will show you who they trust by how they utilize them. They have no trust in any of the 4 players listed above based on how they were utilized last year. 5. Start these guys in Rochester... let them compete for next man up. When the next man is called up... Utilize them... if they fail... go to the next guy but they need to be in constant search for depth. 6. Never ever... ever.... ever. Let a guy like Martin Perez with a 5 plus ERA keep his job just like you should never... ever... ever... let a guy like Logan Morrison hitting under .200 keep his job. 7. Not only did the Twins need to know who they trusted in the playoffs but they needed to know who to keep and who to let go in the off-season and they needed to know how many free agent signings or trade acquisitions they would need for the rotation during the off-season. This is all information that could have been gathered by letting Dobnak show that he was indeed without question better than the 5 plus ERA that Perez provided. More innings were necessary to gather more information... Perez was not good enough... we had the need, we avoided it and went with Perez... this was a simple enough move last year. If Dobnak or Smeltzer or Thorpe were to fail... They would have that information for the playoffs and off-season roster setting. They already knew that Perez was failing. We lose nothing replacing a failing starter for a failing prospect, we gain everything identifying an OK or good prospect over a failing vet. 8. The offense had depth last year and they had depth because they played that depth to find who was depth. They need to take the same approach with the pitching. 9. Go get some pitching. THE BREEZE... FEEL IT. This article is extremely important in my eyes.

I'll try Madison Bumgarner's horse is nearing the end of a long journey across the Arizona.desert and is near death when Zach Wheeler's future mother-in-law sees the horse and immediately recognizes the dire condition. She quickly leads the horse to a large bucket full of water and the horse says... "You expect me to drink this ****"? or if you shake off your parameters you can go with the obvious. You can lead a horse to Minnesota but you can't make him sign a contract. Thank You... Thank You Very much. Copyright: Riverbrian

I like the discipline... I really do. And I'm as patient as the next guy... However... We got need that can't be mistaken here. Discipline isn't going to solve it. I'll stick with my patience for now, I'll hang in there but each name off the board makes it progressively harder. If Dobnak, Smeltzer or Thorpe end up in a 4 spot. I will struggle with that.

The only teams I've read as rumored for a Kluber Trade besides the Rangers were the Dodgers and Angels. The Dodgers have 4th OF'ers and #30 type prospects coming out of their ears. The Angels have to be desperate for pitching. Neither team was willing to exceed DeShields and Clase. It's clear that 17 Million is more than teams think he is worth, it's clear that teams were only kicking the tires here. The Rangers finally decided to buy the tire.

Don't worry... I'm out.

Your concerns about Ryu are legit in my eyes. I won't argue them. I can see what you are saying. But let me clarify my position. I'm saying that if the Twins want Ryu... If they want Bumgarner... If they want Wheeler... if they want Keuchel. They must pay the price to get that player... they can't sit with hard lines on a spreadsheet and say I'll pay 75 million but I won't pay 80 million or I'll do 3 years but I won't do 4. Ryu will sign elsewhere because the other team will pay that stupidity tax over their valuation to get the player. Then the Twins will have to move down the rung from Plan E to Plan F and repeat the process until they are signing a player that isn't much of an improvement over Smeltzer. If THEY want Ryu... they must pay for him. As for what do I want? I want them to sign the players that they want to sign. They got the data. I don't.

This is one of those debates that has no winner and no end to it. There are people who believe that making the playoffs is the goal because once you make the playoffs, it comes down to the team playing well for a short stretch of time. This is where I am. On the other side, There are people who believe that only winning in the playoffs matter. I don't know how to respond to the other side because I don't understand the other side. You have to walk through the 162 game door to make the playoffs. If you don't walk through that door... you won't play in the playoffs. 162 games and the margin is so small that 89 wins is a good year, 81 is an average year and 73 is a terrible year. Now take that tiny tiny margin from 162 games where 8 wins defines good to average and average to terrible and apply it to the minuscule 12 wins it takes to pick up a title and you start to realize that the actual difference between the Yankees and the Twins is a much smaller smaller margin. As a matter of fact... I believe the Yankees won 1 game more than the Twins. If you can simply predict that the Twins are going to lose looking at a roster or a feeling... You should have been able to predict that the Nationals were going to win it. That the Cards were going to beat the Braves as well. The game isn't played on paper. You gotta hit, pitch, catch, run and throw each game, each inning and every team and every player has good days and bad days that fluctuate from game to game and inning to inning. The margins are so thin that those good and bad fluctuations from play to play determines who advances and 2019 has nothing to do with 2017. I don't know how to respond to anyone who can look at the Nationals and talk about Scherzer and Strasburg and also ignore that they were a wild card team, and they were one lucky inning from being one and done against the Brewers. One bad two out sequence from maybe the best reliever in baseball, one broken bat bloop hit and a crazy bounce in RF and the Nats are not having a parade. Maybe the Brewers are. Make the playoffs... anything can happen. Make the playoffs and play well for 20 games. Because anything happens... every year. 3 games in October is the very definition of Ephremal... You got it backwards and I don't know how to respond to that.

I don't know how to respond to someone who thinks that 101 wins is "Ephemeral" while 3 games in October is defining.

You are not wrong in your thinking, we don't have to acquire our pitching with FA's, we can trade or trip over them. We can also use the Tampa model and build the bullpen instead of staffing with starters 1 through 5. However... If they get down to the Teheran, Wood level of addition for a traditional starting rotation. When you look at the payroll number afterwards and all of those prospects still accumulating down on the farm. It will be very hard to defend the front office after a 101 win season. Here is our current pitching if the season started today. They can't screw around here. They must get serious. SP1 SP 17 Jose Berrios R 25.6 SP2 SP 12 Jake Odorizzi R 29.7 SP3 SP 31 Devin Smeltzer L 24.3 SP4 SP 68 Randy Dobnak R 24.9 SP5 SP 43 Lewis Thorpe L 24.1 CL RP 55 Taylor Rogers L 29.0 SU8 RP 21 Tyler Duffey R 29.0 SU7 RP 65 Trevor May R 30.2 MID RP 61 Cody Stashak R 25.5 MID RP 52 Zack Littell R 24.2 MID RP 19 Ryne Harper R 30.7 MID RP 77 Fernando Romero R LR RP Matt Wisler R 27.3 Restricted List SP 35 Michael Pineda R 30.9 Suspended 60 games (9/7/19)

I think you are correct. The Twins have the room in the budget to spend some cash. You are also right that it is getting increasingly harder to spend our financial resources on pitching as names drop off the board. Pitching may have to be addressed via trade leaving some cash to improve the team offensively. It is very solid logic from the Twins current context that you are making. However, in the assessment of the current market for Donaldson... I do have a different opinion from yours. The Nats need power, they are under the CBT and historically not really afraid of the CBT. As things stand today for the Nats... They have Kendrick at 1B, Difo at 2B, Kieboom at 3B and Turner at SS and nobody interesting behind those 4 to compete or share time. The Nats are the very definition of a team that is offensive desperate enough with the resources to pay the 4 years Donaldson is asking. They need to look at Donaldson plus a 1B or 2B or all three. They don't have much choice. The Braves agree are in great shape. They have Riley who can play 3B and Culberson and Carmargo plus decent options across the infield with Swanson, Albies and Freeman. Yes, Donaldson would make them even stronger, deeper and they'd love to have him but they don't have to pay the 4 years Donaldson is asking because they can add offense almost anywhere across the diamond with money or trade because they have young pitching coming out of their ears. I don't see the Braves. The Dodgers are absolutely not afraid to move Turner anywhere and it will be no factor in their decision to add Donaldson or trade for Profar or do anything to make the team better. They can sign Donaldson and have Turner play some 1B while Muncy plays whatever. They can trade for Lindor and move Seager to 2B or 3B and Turner to 1B or wherever. They Dodgers do this sort of thing all the time. They just want good players on good terms. However... The Dodgers as they stand today can do absolutely nothing this off season and make the playoffs in 2020 with relative ease.They can wait until the trade deadline to pick up a difference maker. They they do not have to cave to Donaldson's 4 year ask or to the Indians asking for Lux, Verdugo and May for Lindor. The same goes for Bumgarner... the Dodgers don't have to pay 5 years for Bumgarner because they have a 5 man rotation with 4 pitchers in the minors who can replace those guys. They will try to bring Bumgarner in to make that rotation potentially better but they don't have to pay 5 years and will probably try to land him with less years. And if they don't get him... they don't get him. They have no need to over pay anywhere. The Twins on the other hand just might have to overpay in order to land Bumgarner because this is where our desperation is. But... they do not have to add Donaldson because our offensive depth doesn't force desperation... especially with Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff and Lewis knocking on the door. IMO... Josh Donaldson should be shopping for a place to live in Northern Virginia right about now.

Absolutely every day of the week and twice on Sunday. However, failure to do so means... We must pay at this moment.

I can't remember the thread it occurred in (The Wheeler Thread I believe). Not long ago, Ashbury posted perhaps the greatest post I have ever read on TD when he called free agency a "stupidity tax". That is the perfect succinct description of the process. Whatever your valuation of a player, you must pay the "stupidity tax" above that valuation to acquire that player. The stupidity tax must be paid because you were stupid enough to not develop your own player and are now required to enter the market instead. The market price is determined by the stupidity tax that is set by all of the other teams that failed to develop their own player. In other words... you can't do this with a spreadsheet and hard lines. If you want the player, you must pay the price it takes to acquire him and that is determined by the stupidity tax you must pay to acquire the player you want. Of course, this also creates a vicious cycle. If you want Ryu and it takes an extra year or two of stupidity tax at 4 or 5 years to land him. You have to do it because the team NEEDS right now. The money you spend will conflict and hamstring the money you can spend on extensions and future unpredictable stupidity tax needs to remain competitive beyond and by doing so, you also restrict the roster spots available to find cheaper talent and those players will keep you out of the stupidity tax cycle. Failing to develop will then force you back into paying the stupidity tax over and over again. The Twins and all the teams in our budget range can't afford to pay the stupidity tax over and over again without serious consequence. Bottom line... If Ryu is the guy they want, they must pay the tax, they have left themselves no choice because of past failures to develop. The team is ready to win now and have an acute NEED right now. They have no choice. Pay the money, or pay the prospects but they must add someone and they should add the guy they want. If it's Ryu... put the spreadsheets down and get him. However, it has an obvious future consequence but this isn't my fault. The front office caused this and it is there job to fix it.