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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. If I was Falvey or Lavine. This is how I would handle Phil Hughes. I would support him. I'd thank him for all of his efforts to work his way back. I'd tell him that he will continue to have full use of every resource the Twins have in his efforts to work his way back. I'd tell him that the medical staff, pitching coaches and trainers have been instructed to research new ideas and discuss them with you and I'd encourage him to bring any new ideas that he would like to try and have a discussion with the team to decide what is worth trying. I would communicate with him honestly and appeal to his sensibility with the hope that he: A. Improves B. Understands that the organization has done everything it could... it has been a good faith employer so when you need to have the discussion about agreeing to a minor league assignment... he might for the good of the team.
  2. You might be right. I won't speculate on the office politics of 1 Twins Way because I don't know but either way you get the same result. The Twins won't just toss $26M out the window regardless if: 1. The owner won't allow it 2. The GM will be held responsible for that large of a mistake. Also there are varying degrees of bad contracts. I was just making a point that there are players with big numbers attached out there. Players that the teams might be better off without. The only things that I'm reasonably sure of are: 1. No team is going to volunteer to take the responsibility of the contract so the Twins will pay the $26M unless Phil Hughes volunteers to void the contract. 2. There is a very tiny list of players who were thrown away with anything close to $26M attached to them so we really don't have any consistent precedent. 3. Outside of baseball, in any other profession. Employees in charge of budget management, even when you reduce it to the proper scale, will have a hard time surviving a similar mistake. In my opinion... it is unfair to expect Falvey and Lavine to do something that nobody else in any other profession would be allowed to do unless they are absolutely sure that Hughes will not be able to come back to haunt them. When any of us say... "Just cut Hughes right now". They have no responsibility for the comment and they haven't thought about those who do have the responsibility and the consequences that follows an unprecedented mistake of that magnitude... not matter how unlikely.
  3. That is Quite Possible. Either way... the Twins won't be creating $26M in dead money (which is my point)... unless they are able to convince ownership that Hughes will not be able to help the team during the duration of the contract. If they convince Pohlad that Hughes won't be able to help the team and Pohlad authorizes the Dead Money. If Hughes signs with the Royals for the minimum while the Twins pay that 26M and he throws a shut out against the Twins. Pohlad will call both Falvey and Lavine into the office to have a serious, squirming in your seat type discussion. At that point, Falvey and Lavine will have to start throwing scouts, trainers or each other under the bus or take full responsibility for the wrong diagnosis that led to the mistake. Neither of those options will be good for Falvey or Lavine or those under the bus.
  4. I can't tell if you are making my point or responding to a point that I wasn't making. My guess is that we are talking past one another now. I was responding to Mr. Brooks who said that the Twins have no chance of winning a world series if they have to be 100% certain before flushing $26M. That was the context that led me to reference Josh Hamilton and Kung Fu Panda as an acknowledgement of previous flushes. My point was never intended to be budget/revenue/market size related. My point in that response to Brooks is that all GM's have bad money on the books and can still figure out how to compete for a title. My point was always... the Twins will not flush $26M unless they are sure and I believe I am right and every day he remains on the roster... it seems to support my hypothesis. All teams have to absorb a bad contract or two. The Twins are not alone. Hughes isn't the first and he won't be the last. A Majority of teams have dead money on the books... Very Few of them have anything close to $26M with one player. The cases of Sandoval or Hamilton are pretty rare and I imagine those two players angered the organization to the point that they swallowed the pill. White Sox: I have no explanation on why James Shields is still in the Major Leagues. Other than a 4 year $75M contract that the Sox still owe $21M on. Tigers: Jordan Zimmerman has been about as bad as it gets. The Tigers owe him $74M. Zimmerman still gets the ball every 5th day. Royals: Nobody can really explain the necessity of Alex Gordon on the Royals roster right now other than they owe him $40M. Indians: They are probably looking at Jason Kipnis right now and thinking they could find an alternate use for the $28M they owe him. Mariners: They probably have some data that suggests that the final $53M of the deal with King Felix might be really bumpy. Giants: Matt Cain was terrible from 2013 onward. During that time the Giants paid him $100M. They finally walked away when it became a less painful $7M. Dodgers: There was plenty of speculation that Kemp and his $43M would be cut from the Dodgers. He was not cut and Kemp seems to have gotten better which suggests that they sometimes do get better. Rockies: If Ian Desmond doesn't start resembling a baseball player... the Rockies will hang on to him regardless with $60M on the books. D-Backs: They tried to jettison that Tomas money but nobody was going to take on the responsibility. However... They don't have to worry about Yasmany Tomas joining the Padres and hitting 3 home runs in a game against the D-Backs while paying him $42M for the privilege because he doesn't have the service time to refuse minor league assignment without forfeit of the $42M. However... He's still with the D-Backs and could be an addition to the 40 man roster if the need arises. They didn't just ship him back to Cuba. Reds: Something has kept Homer Bailey tethered to their roster. I'm guessing it was the $63M owed and the possibility that he might get better. Yankees: Ellsbury is still hanging around. They owe him $63M. Orioles: I'm guessing that Orioles have had enough of Chris Davis. They still owe him $115M. Jays: They probably don't like the way Martin has declined with $40M still due. They would probably like to get away from the $54M remaining on Tulo's contract. They could use the DH position for a Vlad Jr. call up but Kendrys Morales is about 23 Million reasons why Vlad will just have to continue destroying New Hampshire for the time being. Braves: Now they are interesting... They ate 33 Million this year... They just tossed it in the garbage and they did it on purpose. This is an outlier compared to everybody else. They took all that final year dead money the Dodgers were hanging on to with Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Kazmir and they did it so the Dodgers would take the two years of Kemp. These were a trade of bad 1 year contracts for a bad 2 year contract that would clean up the contract situation for next year when the big FA's hit the scene. The Braves payroll will be loaded with young talent and around 36M on the books. They can put in a competitive bid for Harper or Machado if they want. I'm not saying the Twins won't eventually walk away from Hughes and swallow something but one of four things will probably need to happen first. 1. Desperation for the Roster Spot. This could happen if the Twins are stuffed to the rafters with MLB talent and the team is in contention and thinking about a playoff roster and need the space. 2. When the price is down to a less painful number in 2019. 3. If Hughes were to do something horrible off or on the field. Such as stab someone with a butter knife. 4. The scouts, trainers, coaches in unison say... there is no chance that he is ever going to be productive. BTW... Phil Hughes doesn't "severely" affect the Twins Roster. He merely affects the roster because as you can see every GM will face these situations and have to bake it into the game plan.
  5. There are no crystal balls... and that is probably why he is still on the roster. Which has been my point.
  6. Most teams have situations like this. From Josh Hamilton to Pablo Sandoval. Part of the manager and GM's job is to manage those situations. However... If they cut 26 Million. You can be reasonably certain that the GM is without a doubt convinced that he will not rebound.
  7. He certainly hasn't impressed me for a while and I'm currently not optimistic... but it is a lot easier for you and I to be certain because we have absolutely no consequences for our assessments. They will have to be completely certain. This isn't the remainder of a 5.6 million Matt Harvey contract. This is 26 million remaining on a contract. If a broker spent $100,000 of your money on a stock and then after it crashed sold it. If that stock came back to the near the purchase price. You'd be looking for a new broker.
  8. And it shouldn't be a goal in hockey either.
  9. The worst thing that Molitor does is that he does not think like I do. It really drives me up a wall.
  10. OK... He let Rogers stay in face the RH Engel. I officially retire from the Molitor prognostication business.
  11. I have reached the point where I've gotten Molitor down to the nuance. He can't surprise me. I feel like Rich Little
  12. In all seriousness... It wasn't hard to predict what Molly was going to do. We entered the inning with Abreu leading off and Odorizzi coming up on 100 pitches. 1. Sanchez (S) 2. Anderson ® 3. Abreu ® 4. Delmonico (L) 5. Davidson ® 6. Palka (L) 7. Thompson ® 8. Narvaez (L) 9. Engel ® Odorizzi was going to face the first three batters come hell or high water. R-L-R Rogers was warming up in the pen... He was getting Palka through Narvaez. L-R-L Hildenberger or a different righthander will come in and face Engel and remain in the game until Palka again R-S-R-R-L-R
  13. That's a tough question. I'm normally pretty happy so I have trouble finding a comparison point for levels of sadness. If I were to guess... I'd say it is somewhere between: A Puppy being run over by a semi and I dropped my pez dispenser in the toilet.
  14. Davidson will be his last batter. Rogers will be brought in to face Palka
  15. Careful what you wish for. You just might get it.
  16. And Morrison is also justified by his defense from the DH position.
  17. Strike em out -- throw em out. Just what the Doctor Ordered.
  18. It probably won't get the same kind of press that Columbus got for his discovery.
  19. Molly will tell you that you have 3 lefties in a row with Castro, Mauer and Kepler. That will beg for lefty reliever in a key moment late in the game.
  20. It is. That can't be denied. You can smell the Bears Fans from your lobby.
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