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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. This is absolutely right. We have budget limitations. Every team has budget limitations, Some are just set higher than others. Maeda's contract allows for Maeda plus another player. Ryu, Wheeler, Bumgarner... those contracts restrict the possibility of additional expenditure. Starting pitching is expensive... this contract is rare. The contract has to be factored into any comparison amongst the 4 and Maeda wins after you do that because he allows for a Donaldson signing. Yeah... you do have to factor Graterol into the price but that's what contending teams do. The reality is... they traded 6 years of a reliever who might throw 60 IP a season for 4 years of a starter who might throw 180 innings a season. If that's how it works without injury... that's 720 innings for 360 innings. No matter how much any of us love Graterol... Maeda is going to be more valuable. Unless of course... Maeda goes all Logan Morrison on us.
  2. The contract puts Maeda over the top.
  3. Defensive stats drown in the vast oceans of routine play. I'm amazed how often they are quoted as gospel. I'm amazed they are allowed to infiltrate WAR. It comes down to outs and timing. Steal an out with an amazing play and the odds decrease significantly that the team will score that inning. Give an extra out in the inning by booting a ball that should have been caught and the odds increase significantly that you will be scored on that inning. Tim Anderson produced the most errors. He committed 26 errors over 532 chances. Roughly 1 error every 20 chances. 122 games for a little over 4 chances a game. About an error every 5 games and that led the league. Javier Baez committed 15 errors over 546 chances.
  4. My definition of "Dead Money" is expanded. My definition includes players like Pujols who woefully under perform.
  5. That's kinda my point. We give them playing time and once they leave they dont get playing time from other teams and they end up with minor league deals shortly afterwards. They go from indespensible with us to immediately dispensable with the other 29 teams. It's not a knock against Dozier. It's a knock against the organization because we produced and counted on players that end up with little value to others.
  6. Minor league deal... 2.2M if he makes the club. Add Dozier to the pile. The pile of Twins players who played every day for us and shortly after leaving the Twins, ran into a hard time finding work.
  7. Sano and Polanco were signed while Smith was the GM, Developed while Ryan was the GM and deployed for maximum benefit while Falvey and Lavine are in charge. They all get credit. But while we waited for Sano, Polanco, Kepler and everybody to get here. We endured an extended dark age that didn't need to be so extended.
  8. I don't think about the commissioner hardly at all. I have no opinion. I'm just talking from a state of the game view and I happen to strongly agree with Trevor. Weather you agree with the rule changes or you don't. The rule changes are separate from the real issues that Bauer talks about. The Blackout Rules: Are arcane and ridiculous. The rules PREVENT people from WATCHING the game. If you want to grow, restricting access is impossible to explain. I get it, the purpose is to protect the TV deal and they pay a lot of money for the broadcast rights but it's short term pennies sacrificing a longer term dollar. I'm amazed that they haven't figured out how to get out of this. People are cutting the cord, baseball can't change this. They can go down with cable or stop and think about it for a second... and then fix it. If people want to watch the game. LET THEM. The technology is there to watch a game in an elevator on your phone... get out of their way and let them. Be where the people are!!!! It's 2020 not 1960. Highlights: A few years back, every night, I would go to bed and watch the highlights from every baseball game on my Ipad before I nodded off to sleep. The following year... a 15 second commercial was attached to every 15 second highlight. It was annoying enough that my highlight watching reduced to maybe a quarter of the highlights a couple of times a week. The year after that, no more access to them at all unless I paid for them. I can afford them but I refuse out of principle. Highlights are promotion. You don't pay for a movie trailer. If Trout robs a home run, it should be sent straight to my phone and it should interrupt my dinner while I watch it, if I choose. Get some people who understand social media and get the people who get in their way out of the way. Personalized Cleats: Let players express themselves. Absolutely agree. Let them flip bats to the hearts desire without a ball in the back. Put some individuality, put some emotion into the game. Marketing: Everybody knew who Babe Ruth was via Radio and Newspaper alone. If Babe Ruth was playing today he would be surpassed by the top athletes of almost every other sport. Baseball marketing hasn't advanced past Radio and Newspaper (add television) while generations of new ideas haven't been utilized. Baseball doesn't have a single player on the most popular list, Baseball doesn't have a single player on the most followed list. But... it stands to reason... because they have been restricting access, squashing expression and personality for quite some time now. Trevor Bauer is completely right. However, playoff expansion has nothing to do with his rightness. It was just the vehicle that got him rolling down this particular road.
  9. Ortiz is right to a degree. It sure would have been nice if Fiers had spoke up sooner. However... Ortiz is wrong to single Fiers out because there is an entire team of Houston players who did not speak up while it was going on. Fiers eventually spoke up. That is good not bad. Nobody else did... that is bad not good.
  10. With Astudillo, I would take a different approach to what I normally propose. I would start Astudillo in Rochester and I would have him catch exclusively. I would not have him play other positions. Yeah, I get that this is weird coming from me but the catcher position has inflated value compared to other positions. I would leave Astudillo in Rochester until he improves his plate discipline. I'd let him know that he is staying in Rochester until he improves his plate discipline. I believe that Astudillo's value will explode through the roof with his 600K price, years of control and hitting ability playing the hitting scarce catcher position. I believe that once he improves his plate discipline (I believe that it's possible), that we are no longer talking about the same player.
  11. I'm naturally cautious when it comes to defensive metrics in short time frames. The eye test hasn't scared me thus far.
  12. Which Ones? Are any of the stats stable with 289 MLB Innings over 31 games?
  13. Where is the "kind of stinks behind the plate" coming from?
  14. I want to be clear that I absolutely love Escobar. I've always been a fan of his. However, with the exception of 2016 (which you list). Whenever he was an opening day starter, it was only because of injury or suspension that gave him that opening day assignment. His role on the roster was utility under Gardenhire and Molitor and with those guys, that is getaway day playing time. Now, he ended up the primary in multiple years but, that wasn't planned by the front offices or managers. A (too long) list of (too many) players had to absolutely collapse in front of him. 2016 was the only year that (I believe) the team planned on Eddie being "the" starter. Notice how easily Eddie lost that starting job after 2016, notice how others who played just as terribly or worse in 2016 were starters in 2017 but not Escobar. We didn't know what we had. If we weren't so consistently awful choosing a starting 9 in front of him, we may have lost him to the pile of baseball souls. it turned out over time that Escobar was indeed (perhaps) Terry Ryan's best trade in his 2nd stint. However, the Twins made less trades than any organization during Ryan's 2nd tenure so the Liriano/Escobar trade wasn't really challenged. Dozier was the crown jewel of our in-house production and you are criticizing the return we got back for him. He is now facing a minor league deal just two years from being our best. Plouffe quickly became a minor league deal after leaving us from everyday duty that Escobar was never given. from forcing Sano to RF to a minor league deal. Hicks was deployed to early, traded for nothing and signed a bigger contract than Brian Dozier did. Buxton was deployed too early. Vargas did not develop, Arcia did not develop. Willingham was traded for something named Adam and on and on. There are no success stories from Ryan's second stint. It's too soon to tell with the current front office, they have some proving to do but the changes are visible.
  15. You got to admit that the benefit of time is being granted to only side here. Escobar was a traditional backup who got playing time because players like Florimon, Danny Santana, Aaron Hicks ETC, died in front of him. We are talking about named starters that were so bad that they had no choice but to turn to the utility backup Escobar. The Twins never knew what they had in Escobar. If they knew what they had, they wouldn't have placed Florimon, Danny Santana and everybody else consistently in front of him. Escobar wasn't even the chosen starter during his break out season 5 years later in 2018. Gardenhire and Molitor both viewed Escobar as utility backup throughout his entire tenure with the club. Escobar took more time to establish value than the Falvey and Lavine have been in office.
  16. It's nice they got a raise. However, this is one of those moments where I want to shout from the rooftops for everyone to hear. On page 1,967 or the 2,232 page Consolidated Appropriations Act which was signed into law on March 23, 2018. [A]ny employee employed to play baseball who is compensated pursuant to a contract that provides for a weekly salary for services performed during the league’s championship season (but not on spring training or the off season) at a rate that is not less than a weekly salary equal to the minimum wage under section 6(a) for a workweek of 40 hours, irrespective of the number of hours the employee devotes to baseball related activities. It is federal law that minor league players can't get overtime. Minor league baseball players are the very definition of no representation. It is federal law because someone just tacked it to the omnibus bill that had to be passed to avoid a massive government shutdown. It was tucked into the bill because the "Save America's Pastime Act" H.R. 5580 was laughed off the stage in June of 2016. Why was H.R. 5580 introduced at all? After failure, why was it tucked into the 2018 omnibus bill by some corrupt elected official? MLB baseball has representation in Washington and MLB baseball is contributing directly to the campaigns. The Kids don't have a chance. This is the way our world works. Everybody should be aware of this. Maybe 1 out of 10,000 people know it. So I post it when I can.
  17. Assuming a 40 hour work week.
  18. O, what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive! -Walter Scott
  19. Kiriloff is also left-handed and a hit-first corner OF with only the addition of some minor league experience at 1B to make him a little less redundant than Cave. If you are not biased against Cave and I'll take your word for it. If you are willing to give Kiriloff 4 starts a week and I agree with you give or take a few starts. Would you do the same for Cave? As for your 2nd paragraph. I won't argue... CF is perhaps my biggest concern. Buxton going down for an extended period of time in 2020 is the current roster soft spot.
  20. As String pointed out in his response to my hypothetical scenario, there are many different things to consider when it comes to a decision like adding Kiriloff to the roster. String astutely lists the majority if not all of the major considerations. "40-man status, service time, contract, options all fit in somewhere and it complicates decisions for promotion and demotion". Kiriloff would have to out distance those on the 40 man roster to justify a call up because of all the considerations that String listed. However... if he did out distance the rest and was stroking the ball as my hypothetical scenario presents. Shouldn't Kiriloff getting called up be the way that it works? Your response "They're not going to put Kiriloff on the bench for any length of time". And you finish with "A better question...would they call up Kiriloff if it was Rosario going on the IL?" The only thing I can conclude (you've expressed similar before)) from these two statements that I've taken specifically out of a longer body of thought is this: You will protect the starters and eliminate any competition to every inch of their playing time. If Cave "The Backup" is hurt. You would call up a player like Wade who can fill in that backup spot, not play much and not disturb the starters that were designated prior. If Rosario "The Starter" is hurt. You would then consider a Kiriloff call up to leap frog past Jake Cave for all of the playing time. So, your assessment of Kiriloff is currently better than Cave but currently worse than Rosario. Yet the gap between Rosario and Cave is statistically marginally thin with only 2000 plus AB's and potentially 15 million dollars and 3 years of service time separating them significantly. This is exactly what baseball has done for many decades. I'm praying it stops.
  21. Both can be done. For the record... I agree with Trevor Bauer. I think his rant is almost spot on. I only disagree with his use of rule changes to show misplaced attention while supporting his overall point. You can do both but regardless more power to Bauer. Go get em because he is right.
  22. Yep, that's the reason I chose Kiriloff for my example. Let's say that Kiriloff is in Rochester hitting around .350 with an OPS around 1,000. He's seeing the ball well and he is performing a foot taller than everyone else on the 40 man and the Twins call him up. You are willing to get him 4 starts a week and that makes complete sense to me. But... as you say, all players are not created equal. At least not in each individual mind's eye. You are biased against Jake Cave for your personal reasons. I won't question your logic, you may be right but you have expressed that Kiriloff's prospect ranking is part of your reasoning so you are possibly over-weighting prospect ranking over actual performance. If we want our front office to be data driven and I do because the alternative was the scout driven guessing of the previous regime that produced the dark ages. I'm going to ask my front office to be free of all the common research bias mistakes that influence outcomes. If they don't... they can put down the research and bring back Terry Ryan.
  23. Very impressive. You expertly support my point while killing my poster boy. You are better than the average bear String. I agree with all your points on platoon, matchup, rest and the difficulty of expressing the ideal number of AB's for all involved. I'm just adding potential future trade value, future cost savings to your mix. Let me ask you this. How do handle Kiriloff if he is called up in June. Let's say the injury that spurs his call up is Cave and he is out for 1 month. Everybody else is healthy.
  24. To me the players coming out publicly and harshly illustrates just how out of bounds the Astros were here. If other teams are doing similar things, they would stay silent. They are not... they are pissed. I'm beginning to believe that Manfred has no choice but to strike the 2017 WS title from the record books. I'm not sure that he can punish the players due to the immunity, MLBPA and players that are now on other rosters though. What a flipping mess. Boston yet to come. I want my game back to normal.
  25. if you spread ABs across the roster, you are by definition intentionally taking ABs from the better players and giving them to the weaker players. No I'm not. My diatribes were hardened by Logan Morrison which I never want to see again. I want weaker players to get LESS AB's and if they have no chance of helping the team or increasing in future value, I'd rather they have no AB's at all. I'm outwardly questioning who are the better players and who are the weaker players and by how much are they better players and by how much are they weaker players. I'm saying without reservation that purposely wasting a roster spot by benching players who can produce above average at low cost is a hundred fold bigger waste of franchise advancement then the daily waste of playing who is maybe .005 to .100 OPS worse over the course of a season and it's an even bigger waste if the player you assume to be .005 to .100 OPS is actually better. I dont want Adrianza to get ABs at the expense of Polanco, except as necessary, and I dont want Cave to get ABs at the expense of Kepler or Buxton. Polanco doesn't have to shoulder the entire burden if Adrianza is able to increase in value. I question how much Adrianza is going to increase in value because if he does, he becomes cost prohibitive to us anyway. I trust our management to be capable of using history, health, and potential to determine ahead of time where the regular playing time should go. I also trust our management. They have the data. I was OK with them signing Martin Perez and giving him a chance. I was not fine when they let him continue because they determined ahead of time where the regular playing time should go. Now, if someone has 3 months of poor performance, and you have someone worth trying, fine. But I absolutely dont want them to make that decision based on who was hot yesterday. After 3 months, you are in a hole. If the someone worth trying after the 3 months also has poor performance, you are deeper in to the hole. My viewpoint isn't that difficult. If a player is performing... let him continue. Jake Cave has played well enough to continue. It is not taxing on a roster or a manager to find the AB's for him to continue. It is beneficial to a roster or a manager to find the AB's for him to continue.
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