Riverbrian

I dont know the details obviously and I dont want to make assumptions but I have a nagging question that I can't shake. If the Astros admit to 2017 and are not caught until after the 2019 season concluded. Why would they stop in 2018 or 2019? I dont know the answer to that the nagging question.

I agree with you that the data is not sufficient. I don't declare Jake Cave anything at this point. I only state that he has been capable for 500 AB's and believe he should be allowed to keep going. I do disagree with the level of trust you place in the staff to make pre-determinations and that isn't a slam or statement against our front office. I assume and believe with all my heart that they are better at it than you and I and am glad they are making the calls. But Logan Morrison, Martin Perez and Nick Anderson are enough to demonstrate that they can and do get it wrong. I believe every GM can and does get it wrong. There is one way to avoid those type of mistakes. Let the players determine the course of action through performance. I'm opposed to hard lines drawn on very small margins or insufficient data. Hard lines or predetermined assessments gaurentees a failed result. That's how Nick Anderson happened and it's how Logan Morrison happened. If I was Jake Cave... I'd be pissed if I wasn't given an honest chance to control my fate. I wouldn't want anyone telling me that I can't be as good as anyone and subsequently preventing me from proving you wrong especially if I have been playing as decently as anyone so far. If you spread the AB's across the roster. No one has to give up significant playing time to feed the entire roster. The players who shouldn't get playing time are the ones who are not playing well. Cave doesn't belong in that group based on his performance thus far. 13 bingo balls instead of 9 bingo balls with 4 blank balls and you have increased your output by 25% and a better chance at a filled out bingo card.

Too soon to use these positive numbers as a negative. He had no choice but to swing the bat when he was given the chance to swing the bat. However... if you want to point out that he faced inferior pitching during his best stretch. Ok... we can do that but I will point out that everyone else faced the same pitching during this time frame and his OPS was better than everyone not named Cruz or Garver. Why does Cave get a negative check mark for hitting sub par pitching really well while Kepler, Arraez, Polanco, Schoop, Rosario, Marwin and Cron dont get a negative check mark for not hitting that same pitching as decently as Cave did?

That's not two halves. That's 112 AB's over 115 games. And That's 116 AB's over 47 games. You can call that streaky. I call it opportunity. Personally... I'd be hesitant to label anyone with 500 AB's as streaky or anything for that matter.

Personally I am ready to move past this whole thing. However this is one area where I'd like to see it linger. However, it shouldn't be just Bolsinger filing suit. It should be any pitcher that got knocked around in 2017 by the Astros. The majority of pitchers wbo got knocked around as a result of this system could have lost significant money as a result. Especially relievers who can never really throw enough innings to repair the damage done during a shellacking.

There are very few things sadder than predetermined fate.

Under no circumstances do I want my front office or manager looking Jake Cave in the eye and telling him: We didn't give you AB's against tougher pitching last year so I hope you understand that we intend use that information against you going forward. Under no circumstances do I want my front office or manager so cocky and confident that the conclusions they draw prior to actual performance can't be altered or adjusted or wrong. Under no circumstances do I want my front office or manager to forget that their prior conclusions led to Logan Morrison, Martin Perez and Nick Anderson. Under no circumstances do I want increased value to be denied based on thin or secondary statistical margins. And under no circumstances do I want a player on the roster that has no chance of increasing value for tomorrow or helping the team win today.

You would have been selling low in an attempt to sell high. You can only sell high with Jake Cave if his sample size increases to establish value. Of course once his sample increases, those numbers you quote may look different with more stable data. How do you stabilize the data... give him starts against tougher pitchers I guess.

Lack of Analysis? Of course they are entirely different entities but easily lumped together and placed into the same (We took no steps to prepare for this) file. https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-gibson-byron-buxton-injury-updates The Twins were aware that Kyle was not 100% at any point during the season since getting E. Coli during the WINTER and according to the article, the UC diagnosis may have been mid-July. Neither the Twins or anybody else can claim the surprise card here. And of course... Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda were candidates for injury at any time. Because throughout baseball history... all 5 starters in any 5 man rotation have all remained healthy for an entire year... maybe zero times. What Doc is saying: Perez remained in the rotation with a 6 plus ERA over an extended time frame and Gibson remained in the rotation at less than 100% since winter advancing to measurably weak around Mid-July, waking multiple times a night with a UC diagnosis in hand. The team just rides it out, hoping it would be all right before the playoffs arrive. A starter is not acquired at the trade deadline nor is anyone from the farm called up. Doc is joining me and others in prayer. Please don't let Bailey be Perez (Terrible) or Gibson (Not Healthy) and stay in the rotation regardless of these things.

The reveal part of the equation is extremely important. We can all sit back and say that we have depth because of Rooker, Larnach and Kiriloff. However, if Kiriloff is called up and hits under .200 or (worse yet) not played much. He is not depth. The revelation is critical. Once actual honest to god depth reveals itself, not playing the depth, negates the revelation. When push comes to shove... you won't know if you have it when you need it. You will need it and it may not be there because you haven't allowed the revelation. Baseball has for decades, drawn hard lines on thin margins in regards to production, ability, depth, utility, playing time. This is what has affected our perspective. It's why I sound Greek. Everybody believes that Rosario is better than Cave. I won't argue, I would choose Rosario if asked the question who is better. The question I ask is this... how much better is he? If the margin is thin and based on the numbers so far, the margin appears to be thin. Why such a hard line on such a thin margin? Rosario is producing marginally better so he gets 150 starts and Cave gets 12 starts. That is an unnecessary hard line that just kills Cave. This is how the baseball world has worked for decades so we have been taught these warped perspectives. The argument is typically. Rosario has 25 million MLB AB's and Cave has 200. That isn't an acceptable reason to stop Cave from getting 300 or 400 or 500 or 600 AB's. That is a self fulfilling prophecy. Rosario will be better by a large margin because nobody will be the wiser in regards to Cave as he is put to sleep. What should stop Cave from getting those AB's? If he is performing like Logan Morrison. If that happens... by all means stop him. If he is performing at a level close to Eddie Rosario or others... let him play. Let him reveal himself. That way when he is needed and he will be needed, you have full confidence that he can get the job done. Opposed to hoping he will get the job done and having know idea if he can. And then the following off season. You can look at Cave at 600K and Rosario at 15 Million and choose the 600K and then invest that 15 million into a starting pitcher. Using, the Arb money Rosario would have received in his final year before free agency. And when Rosario leaves after that final year. It will leave a hole with nothing but unrevealed solutions to chose from because you invested everything into Rosario. By utilizing your entire roster, you gather information and create options when it comes to solving issues tomorrow. Each roster spot is critical for development or revelation if you will. I choose to pull 13 bingo balls while others choose to pull 9 bingo balls with 4 blank bingo balls. I will fill out my card way more often than you will. I will bet everything I own that I will fill out my card more often. Yet most teams choose to pull 9 bingo balls instead of 13 and they do so on purpose and they have pulled 9 bingo balls for decades and they do so based on confirmation bias or thin individual performance margins. This is losing sight of a LARGE margin by obsessing over a small margin. In a nutshell, teams have purposely declined 25% of possible overall production(9 bingo balls) over a possible 5% performance margin increase of individual production (Rosario/Cave). The 25% production loss is the much much much much much much bigger crime. It's like committing Arson while trying to avoid a speeding ticket. By the way... I'm not picking on Rosario. Rosario is just for example purposes to represent the thin margins. This isn't about Rosario... It's about 9 starting positions sharing the burden to supply AB's for everyone, which is not that much of a burden when shared.

This type of depth is critical. It should be the goal of every organization. Yet only a couple of teams are really trying to accumulate and nurture this type of depth. We should consider ourselves fortunate to be one of those teams. You create depth by playing your depth. There are people who believe it is impossible to find 13 players worthy of playing time. This was proven wrong last year. It will always be impossible if you think Jake Cave isn't worthy of playing time and it will always be impossible if you stop looking after 9 players. This list says 10. I say 14. Hopefully in 2020, management of the pitching staff will mirror the 2019 management of the position players. When that happens... look out because there will be good times ahead.

They won't be able to buy. Tulo's price just went way up past the Kepler mark due to supply and demand. The Trade deadline will experience bone breaking change. We won't recognize it afterwards.

This post is so beautiful it could win at the Westminster Kennel Club.

Unless of course that it is your team representing one of the 2 or 3 82 win teams that are fighting for that last playoff spot. I'm pretty confident that the Pittsburgh Steelers faithful were checking the playoff scenarios with a 8-7 record going into that last game of the season just like all of us Viking fans do whenever we are hoping Atlanta loses or ties and Philadelphia Wins so we can get that last spot via tiebreaker. I'm pretty confident that interest in the Pirates is going to hold through September when they have a similiear 73-71 record with 20 games to go just the same. I'm pretty confident that Arizona State Basketball fans were checking out the bracketology on pins and needles, going over the scenarios it would take for the Sun Devils to get an invite to the dance just for that 11th seed. Dying a little while they wonder if that loss in the PAC conference tourney cost them. The D-Back Fans will do the same all the way through September. 35 years later, The typical long time college basketball fan still remembers the 1985 Cinderella story of Rollie and Villanova winning it all as an 8th seed while Patrick Ewing wondered what happened. Nobody resented Villanova winning it all, the majority of us loved it. We may not remember the exact year but we remember the team without aid of research. 37 Years later... Who could forget Jimmy V looking for someone to hug in 1983 after the 6th Seeded NC State Wolfpack beat that loaded Houston team with Clyde and Akeem. In contrast... 36 Years later in 1984... People have to turn to Wikipedia to remember that Georgetown won a title in between NC State and Villanova. NCAA basketball was 53 teams back then... It's now up to 68 teams and there are no scars on it's body. Are we really afraid that a 82 win team could win it all. We shouldn't be afraid of that, we should be hoping for it. September 1st with only 5 teams truly out of contention means 25 fan bases with a reason to get up in the morning and pay attention. That is good for the sport... that is tremendous for the sport. Now of course, that many teams in contention will absolutely change the trade deadline experience as we know it, less teams selling and more teams buying is going to be bone breaking change. However, the trade off is that less teams will be tanking as a result and it will narrow the have/have not gap that has been entrenched for decades in the game of baseball. I'm in.

I like it I'd vote Yes

I agree that this would be a wonderful thing to do. It might get you specifically on his side along with some others. But... it won't change it. Only time will heal the wound.

Sincerity won't get him or any of them out of the doghouse either. In the words of Kenny Wayne Shepherd "Wrong can't be undone". "Blue on Black... Tears on a river" "Push on a shove... It don't mean much" "Whisper on a scream.. Doesn't mean a thing" "Don't bring you back... Blue on Black" I love this song and I think rock songwriters are the greatest philosophers in the world. The song basically says it doesn't matter if you are sorry or really really sorry. It's just blue on black. Just shades, degrees that won't make up for the original wrong either way. In the end... It's up to everyone else to either dwell on it or not. Marwin broke it and he just can't fix it... We have to fix it by just moving on to the next object of our derision. The guy coming out of prison may be really really sorry, but he won't get a job unless someone chooses not to dwell on whatever he did and give him a job. In the world of social media. The world will choose to dwell on it in an echo chamber for a period of time, until eventually, we lose our focus on it. There is nothing that he can say... he's going to wear it for awhile.

The intent of grudges going forward have been announced by others in this and other threads.

Agreed And the actions of an entire team will always be worse than the action of a single person. "perhaps"?

I threw a “perhaps” in there because the lines get real blurry when trying to rank bad things. Is it worse to be trampled by a herd of water buffalo or get stuck in an elevator with an angry badger or is it worse to live in Nebraska? For the record... It has never been proven that Pete Rose bet against his team. The Dowd report never claimed he did. No bookie is going to take that bet BTW. It would be like me saying “Hey Chief... I’ll Bet you that I will spill this water all over the floor”. And you say “I’ll give you 4-1 odds.” And then I pour the water on the floor and you say “Ok you win this time... let’s go double or nothing.... here’s another glass of water”. I was pretty young during the Black Sox Scandal so the historical significance is lost on me and I’m not the type to hold a grudge.

This is perhaps the biggest scandal in baseball history. I won't minimize the damage done by it. The damage done is impossibly to quantify because there is depth way below the surface of an ill-gotten world series title. However tomorrow is a new day and one thing I have learned is this: Holding grudges is a terrible way to go through life. If you want to hold a grudge, that is your choice but you will be the one who walks around with it. If that bitter feeling you hold inside, keeps you warm and happy. I'll never understand you. Baseball needs to move forward, grudges are just going to slow the moving forward part.

As Twins Our best chance is development. Either developing from the ground up or developing via significant improvement from an acquired asset. From those two options... it's going to be development that produces that lights out guy in both scenerios. I've come to the conclusion we will not sign or trade for someone that is... ready made. That's why the Perez crap last year and the Bailey (Whatever he is going to be this year) frustrates me so. Mediocre pitchers who are not performing can't stand in the way of developing someone who might perform.

I don't think it can be avoided. It's more my fault than the Red Sox. I follow Rosenthal, Passan and Heyman because I can't wait a damn minute. So, I take full responsibility but with that said. The Red Sox sure screwed it up.

And the Rays only have 3 starters. Here's the deal... I'm not the type to drown in subjective opinions. I won't agree or disagree with your opinion. Personally, I'm not counting on anybody's pitching until the pitching can be counted. I'll know more as the season progresses. I just happened to disagree with your original methodology.