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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    I have no idea what Royce Lewis is like defensively. However... if he can play SS, 3B and CF. By all means let him play all 3 positions. There is extreme value in that ability. Trying to shove him into one spot is a mistake. Once Royce establishes himself as ready and becomes the top call up option. When Royce gets called up, it will be due to an issue on the 25 man (injury or performance related). We don’t know where that injury or performance related issue will spring up. Could be OF, could be 3B, could be SS. His ability to play all of those positions opens up more doors for him to come through. Leave him at one position like SS. He is waiting for one specific door to open and Polanco may not get hurt. It then forces Lewis back to the minors if when Polanco returns. If the injury happens in CF. This forces the club to call up a lesser player because Lewis is a SS only. Let him play all 3 positions and we will see him sooner. Leave him at one position and it will take a specific set of circumstances to get him up to the majors.
  2. Riverbrian
    Great Job Patrick, IMO... I'm not sure everyone sees the importance of watching the other organizations. Actually, I'm pretty sure most are not watching other organizations. However, I am happy that our front office seems to be watching the other organizations. All 3 of these articles are must reads.
  3. Riverbrian
    Spot on There is way too much focus on the trades part of the equation. If you want to guarantee that you will win the majority of the trades you make. Find the flaws of the players you acquire and fix them. If you want to guarantee that you will come out on the losing end of the deals you make. Let the chips fall where they may. If you want to give the impression that you are drafting well... Develop them. If you want to give the impression that you haven't drafted well. Fail in development. This is how Houston is winning. This is why the Twins are behind the Astros.
  4. Riverbrian
    This is it exactly. And this is what the crux of this article is about. The Astros are extremely successful getting players to fly correctly. From unheralded prospects Dallas Kuechel and Jose Altuve to trade acquisitions coming off down years like Justin Verlander and Garrit Cole. The Twins need to be able to do this for long term success. And they need to start right now. Tomorrow is here.
  5. Riverbrian
    You mean Justin or Melvin Bush don't ya?
  6. Riverbrian
    Lavine has mentioned in the past and eludes to it here. They were aware of Pressly’s capability but struggled with execution. No way of knowing what that meant exactly but I have noticed a new pitching coach and manager since the Presley trade. Perhaps to improve execution?
  7. Riverbrian
    There are times when waiting for others to break through walls makes sense but once they do... you are behind. Personally, I have no ability to judge what went on inside the walls. I have never been in the room and have no right to make accusations. They are unfounded at best. However... By all reports the Twins went decades with one analyst and that was Jack Goin. I'm sure Jack was very talented but the amount of data that was being filtered through by other clubs requires a larger department. Intentional? Unintentional? Who knows but it does suggest "Blinders" were on as they trudged the same path they had always traveled.
  8. Riverbrian
    One by one... the old school operations are falling by the wayside. But here’s the thing. It’ll be a short window for the Twins who were somewhat late to the party but not as late as others. We will enjoy the fruits of these efforts for a little while as the dinosaurs die off. Eventually everybody will be in the same place in the future and a new thing will have to arrive to separate a brand new future new breed from the pack. The Orioles new GM is from the Astros and they will follow the Astros path. The Giants have hired from the Dodgers.
  9. Riverbrian
    It was near midnight... The numbers listed are examples out of my head and not pertaining to any player, but I have seen players with such swings and have always dismissed the numbers (and stat) due to sample size. You are not going to get decent reliable UZR numbers anywhere from Marwin when he plays: 326 Innings at RF 291 Innings at 3B 160 Innings at 1B 129 Innings at LF 18 Innings at 2B 9 Innings at SS 2 Innings at CF This is the equivalent of full time part time play at each position. Yet, the sum of these small samples will end up in the WAR calculation. I pass on UZR and WAR as a result. If you are looking for a player example. Mike Trout is a pretty unstable defensive player from year to year according to the range stats. You are on the same page as me... Well Kinda. My point is - as you say "defensive metrics are much MUCH shakier than their offensive and pitching counterparts" and for the exact reason you list. There is much more data pouring into the hitting and pitching stats to stabilize it. If we have a disagreement, it is that you are more confident in the defensive metrics than I am. The data isn't enough and the data you do get is overwhelmingly routine. You don't have to think very hard to realize that if 80% of the data you use is routine data that goes into everyone's data pile (I'm making up numbers again). It means that a small percentage of the data will provide the variance and if such a small sample can provide a large variance and it does. It's over-weighted. Take that already over weighted small sample, now remove the obvious shifts that disqualify the play from inclusion in the data. The Dodgers shift 50% of the time. Factor in players who play multiple position and like you said... you got yourself a shaky stat and it's a shaky stat that makes WAR shaky by it's inclusion.
  10. Riverbrian
    I don’t know... I don’t pay much attention to them. Is there a defensive metric that cuts through the routine-ness that comprises typical defense and provides a repeatable, stable result without wild swings? Point it out and I promise that I’ll open eyes and give it a fair shake. UZR... I’m not going to pay much attention to a stat that tells me a certain player is 7.0 in LF and -1.5 in RF. Or a stat that produces a 4.0 in 2017 followed by a -1.5 in 2018 and then 4.0 in 2019 for the same player at the same position. The discrepancy is sample size related and a full season doesn’t seem to provide a stable enough sample based on the wild swings from year to year and position to position.
  11. Riverbrian
    UZR ignores all plays determined affected by a shift. Determined by a stringer but will include plays not determined to have been affected even if a shift is employed. (The stat itself, is attempting to ignore shifting in order to keep the zones and data of the past valid). His range will only be measured if he stands here. The Twins shift 36% of the time. The more you shift, the less data used, the less data used, the increased weight of individual plays. Weighting is already insanely high due to the routine-ness of most plays and the total chances each player gets over the course of the season. Arraez for example: Missed a month before being called up, He had 40% of his playing time somewhere besides 2B. the Twins shift 36% of the time. And... most plays are simply ground balls hit within easy reach of where he is standing... even more so because of the shift. So... how reliable is his 2B UZR rating that you quote? Just one play not made in a zone where a play is usually made is weighted HEAVILY and will take a lot of time to stabilize., if you don't play a lot of time at that position, or if you the data doesn't count because of the shift and your team shifts alot... the less chances to stabilize it. UZR is half baked.
  12. Riverbrian
    I agree the play wasn't routine. Probably a ball that you hope a MLB player catches but certainly not routine. I think you are spot on in your assessment of the play. Also... I have no idea what went into the front office decision making but I'm reasonably sure that with the presence of Schoop on the roster... the fact that Arraez was in the lineup makes an assumption pretty easy that his ankle was tested and came out OK. Putting an injured player in the lineup, is working way too hard to keep a decent player out of the lineup against a left-handed starter. I really don't think the Twins are that down on Schoop to do that type of thing.
  13. Riverbrian
    I worry this was some sort of script that they tried to follow. Kind of like the offensive coordinator scripting the first 20 plays or something. No idea the reasoning... but... it happened for some reason.
  14. Riverbrian
    First... Finding an exact match for the conditions will be really difficult. Second... It doesn't matter what happened in Game One or Game Two... They were both losses including a supposed soul destroying 9-0 (game two) loss with Madison Bumgarner (the future world series hero) getting tagged during the loss. Game three is going to be a fresh set of zeroes on the scoreboard no matter what happened in the previous two games. Third... What the Giants didn't do is throw the back end of the bullpen in game one with a one run deficit. They were staring at 3 run deficit and they turned to George Kontos who had a 2.47 ERA with 44 K's in 43.2 innings over 44 appearances in 2012. Sergio Romo was there in 2012 and he is probably wondering why we turned to Stashak.
  15. Riverbrian
    Not really... What really matters is that all margin of error is now gone. They can't suffer a bloop hit now. The Reds destroyed, dismantled and out everything'd the Giants in San Francisco in 2012. The Giants survived it... this can happen again. The odds are against it because all margin of error is now gone... but, It will be a fresh set of zeroes tonight on the scoreboard and what happened on Saturday was yesterday. Win tonight, You play again on Tuesday... Win Tuesday... You play on again on Friday. It's been done before.
  16. Riverbrian
    I am over the moon happy with Baldelli and I am over the moon happy with Falvey and Lavine BUT... IF ...after two games of do or die playoff baseball. No matter if those games produced wins or losses. IF... you have stats that look like this. Stashak 2 Games 1.2 innings Romo 1 game 0.2 innings May 1 Game 0.1 innings Rogers 0 games 0 innings You have a first time manager and a fairly young front office making a significant mistake. The Twins are the only team in the playoffs utilizing the back end of their bullpen before they utilize the front end of the bullpen. I'm not saying the results would have been different but when they turned to Stashak with a one run deficit in game one, and did so with all of Romo, May and Rogers available or even letting Duffey throw another inning. They didn't take into account the stark difference between Game one of the ALDS and Game 95 of the regular season. The only thing I can think of... is that they tried to keep the bullpen fresh in anticipation of game two with Dobnak starting. So they tried to wing and a prayer through game one. Which was still close! Just to focus on game two instead. Just a constructive criticism. THROW YOUR BEST ARMS... RIGHT NOW... Don't save them for tomorrow. There may not be a tomorrow as you just learned. Would you rather throw Romo and May with a 1 run deficit or a 7 run deficit. Your save them for tomorrow plan just plain disappeared on you. So you end up choosing Stashak in a one run deficit and Romo and May in a 7 run deficit.
  17. Riverbrian
    Nope... I get the Capital Letters. I've been RB in Twins Territory longer than he has.
  18. Riverbrian
    First off... This ain't over yet. If they win Monday... they play Tuesday... If they win Tuesday... They play Thursday. 13 separate times the Twins have won three games in a row this year. Lots of talk about a difference in talent. The Yankees won 103 games, the Twins won 101 games. Whatever difference in talent you are all talking about, it amounted to 2 extra wins over the course of 162 games. Coming back from an 0-2 deficit in a DS has happened before. The Yankees came back against the Indians from 0-2 in 2017. 2015... The Jays came back from 0-2 against the Rangers... That was the Bautista Bat Flip series. 2012... The Giants almost didn't win one of their World Series because the Reds had them pinned 0-2. 2nd loss of that series for the Giants was a blow out, bigger than what we just experienced. The Reds made a big statement in game two and they made that statement in San Francisco. The Giants had to win 3 in a row in Cincinnati and they did. Losing the first two games sucks... It eliminates all margin of error and puts our backs firmly against the wall and it decreases our odds of advancing to horrible levels but... what happened yesterday was yesterday. You put the uniform on and make some plays.
  19. Riverbrian
    I agree but they have to take my phone calls and listen.
  20. Riverbrian
    If I were to guess. I'm not in the room so it is a guess. My theory... I believe the front office and Rocco put together a plan to start Dobnak. But, since they don't totally trust Dobnak... (they shouldn't after only 28 innings and rising out of nowhere from Low A). They probably had a condition that Dobnak would require full support from the bullpen in order to start game 2. In other words... plan for a short Dobnak start. Meaning the plan to start Dobnak Game two is intact if he doesn't have to burn the bullpen Game One. If they were to burn the bullpen out in Game One... They would have to then name Odorizzi the Game Two starter. With a hope that Odorizzi can go more innings than they will allow Dobnak to throw. This desire to stick with this plan, led to using the very back end of the bullpen with a one run deficit instead of getting another inning out of Duffey, then turning to Rogers, Romo or May. Stashak has been decent this year but he has no high leverage appearances. He's Mike Morin... decent numbers... not trusted in high leverage. And here he is with the ball in hand... making his first high leverage appearance because they want to save the bullpen for Dobnak... who they don't trust. They go they someone they don't trust during the regular season (Stashak)... to protect against their concerns about going with a guy that they didn't trust during the regular season(Dobnak). IT'S OCTOBER!!! You go with your guys now. The ones you trust and have rewarded that trust. The Nats are going to use their starters and toe dip into the bullpen. Now... Everybody can rest when the playoffs are over. You don't save arms for tomorrow because there may not be a tomorrow. A 1 run deficit is not impossible to make up, you don't throw the back end of the bullpen. This team hit 307 home runs... they can find the fence. But if you allow that lead to stretch in the middle innings... You need someone to hang zeroes. Good luck getting 3 runs back against Chapman, Britton, Ottovino and Crew. You were choosy all year on who you threw. during the regular season. It's the playoffs... now is the time to be choosy... Not back then. You shouldn't be choosy during the regular season so you can choose better right now. The got it backwards.
  21. Riverbrian
    Maybe we are... Maybe we aren't. WIth the Yankees... What you want to avoid is the Yankees grabbing the lead in the middle innings. They have the pen to make coming from behind no fun at all. , So, in my opinion... we need to use our pen (our best pitchers) earlier and longer. I don't want to save either Duffey or Rogers for 9th inning closing duties in case we happen to have a lead worth closing in the ninth. By saving a closer, you limit that guy to maybe 3 innings in a 5 game series. That would severely limit their use. I'd rather see Duffey and Rogers get us through those middle innings... or when needed to hang zeroes instead of hoping that Berrios and Odorizzi don't float hangers for a 3 run Yankee bomb in the 6th after the lineup has turned over a couple of times just because that is what is typically done with a starting pitcher in July. I don't believe this series with be won with either starting rotations winning it. The bullpens are where both teams best pitchers reside. It'll be what team coughs up the early lead and what bullpen can hold it in the face of a couple of clubs that hit 307 and 306 home runs respectively. . There is the Astro's model... 3 Hall fo Fame starters with a little bullpen support. There is the Brewers model... Questionable starters with a ton of bullpen support to fill out the innings. Both the Yankees and Twins should be somewhere in between these. We certainly don't have the starters to do what the Astros will do and we shouldn't even try. I have no idea how Baldelli will manage it... but, I am excited to see whatever happens and can't wait for it to happen.
  22. Riverbrian
    If Baldelli feels that way... I wouldn't argue with him. Duffey has been good. I think of Rogers because he has been good for longer. Bottom Line: The Bullpen is going to be needed to cover some innings... This won't be like a game in July. We will need Rogers, Duffey, May, Romo... all of them for more innings than we are accustomed.
  23. Riverbrian
    He's our best pitcher. I wouldn't save him for the closing of games exclusively. He goes into the game whenever you need your best. I'm using him for as long and often as needed. He can rest in the off season. You don't hold anyone back now.
  24. Riverbrian
    To avoid derailing this topic. I've created another discussion on this subject in the "Other Baseball" forum. Feel free to take this debate over there.
  25. Riverbrian
    Agree with your overall sentiment. It’s baseball and weird things happen. Everyone is expecting a slugfest between the Yankees and Twins and we may end up with pitching duels and if that happens I won’t be shocked because the baseball gods love that sort of thing. The game isn’t played on paper and this is small sample size on steroids. The Nats Brewers last night was exhibit 20,689 of the baseball gods at work. I won’t have time to list the other 20,688 examples. When it comes to this article... Roles no longer matter... it’s all hands on deck. Do we have enough pitching? Do the Yankees? I don’t know. Let’s find out. P.S. I disagree with the misplay characterization on the rookie in RF. That was crazy spin on a ball in a situation that any RF would charge full speed to make a throw home to nail the tying run if possible. I think nearly every RF would be in danger of a similar result. Bad hip provided by the baseball gods. Much like the broken bat bloop hit from Zimmerman.
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