Riverbrian

Imagine a horse racing public address announcer over the track loudspeaker when you read the following. And their off. There appears to be a problem at the gate. Lewis and Kepler are... I don't know what happened... They are down. Both Lewis and Kepler are down... Horrific start for those two horses. Santana in the Yellow and Green Racing Silks has started quickly out of the gate. At the 3.7% of the season pole. Santana is leading the pack in plate appearances with 22. Buxton and Correa are keeping pace with 21 on the inside. Castro and Kirilloff neck and neck for the 4th position at 20. Those are your 5 horses controlling the early pace as the others linger back and look for positions to advance. Julien is falling from the pack at 15. Julien a strong runner reportedly healthy but he has fallen off the pace even after the removal of Polanco who was somehow attached to Julien and in his way. Kepler appears to have recovered and is gaining on Julien. Kepler and Lewis had some sort of problem at the gate. Kepler is up and running. Lewis is still down at the gate. I repeat... Lewis is still down at the gate.

The Mariners will pay Polanco 10.5 million dollars. Plus 12 million or 750K buyout next year. The Mariners will also pay 8 million dollars to the Twins. That's 18.5 Million taken from their budget to acquire Polanco. Plus a top 100 Prospect and another prospect along with Desclafini and Topa. The Mariners do shave 4 million off the books with what the Twins take on for Desclafini and 1.25 for Topa for a total of 5.25. Subtract 5.25 from the 18.5 and the Mariners added 13.25 Million to their 2024 payroll, gave up a bullpen arm, a top 100 prospect and another prospect. All of this to acquire Polanco and get rid of Desclafini. Would the Mariners spend all of that for a bench player. Would the Twins dream of asking another team to give up that for a bench player. When you consider the prices for quality starting pitching does any of the numbers above suggest that Desclafini is actually quality. The Mariners took on a lot. The Twins probably won this trade with the inclusion of Gabriel Gonzales but this does not improve the Twins in 2024.

This is your movie script... not mine. You are dragging me into this room and I'm hoping that others are noticing that it's not my room and my feet are up on the door frame pushing back. This is a kidnapping. But Ok... since I'm here against my will. Let me ask you a question. How many 57 Chevy's are under the water in Lake of the Woods? It's a ridiculous question I know but then again so is yours. Let's ignore the FACT that I have consistently recognized that teams have a budget and consistently not lost my mind over team payroll or big free agents... yet I'm still getting shoved into this room. You are arbitrarily defining the parameters of the question you seek. A question that has nothing to do with my point if I haven't made myself clear. 90 Wins is your arbitrary line. 2 players is your arbitrary line. 50m and 60m are your arbitrary lines. Equal or Less Revenue than the Twins is your arbitrary line. Revenue isn't reported and a moving target YOY but we both know the teams you are talking about... and these teams typically are not big players in the big contract world so finding a single team successful OR NOT however subjectively defined is going to pretty unicorn like. Regardless of the ridiculousness of the question and the usage of me as the vehicle you drive off this cliff. I still answered the question... You asked for "a team". I listed the 2022 Padres 89 wins (not 90) and you reply with "extreme anomaly". You asked for "A team". There ya go. The 2023 Twins spent 48.5M on Correa and Buxton and won 87 games. Doesn't meet your parameters but close. However... I want to be clear. I have never stood up on this site and complained about payroll. I don't belong in this room.

Why do I have to do that? I'm 100 miles from that location. I'm saying that I wouldn't have traded Polanco and I wouldn't have traded him based on 2024 contention context. Are you asking me to add Correa and Polanco together. Add 10.5 to Correa's 33.333.333 = 43,833,333 To answer your question... I'm not going to do a ton of research on it but the 2022 Padres won 89 games and spent over 60 million on two players. But... I want to be clear. I only did that at your request and why you are requesting it of ME... I really don't know. And Yes... If I had my wish... Hoskins would have been the addition that tripped my trigger.

Yesterday your recap was titled "Rally Runs Short". Today you could have titled it "Rally Runs Long".

So can Mike Sixel

1. Groundhog Practice? 2. Queen lyric inspiration? (I see a little silhouetto of a man)

You went thru security, took your belt off, your shoes, did that little pose thing. None of that was necessary just to get the answer to your question.

My wife says that I'm great at leaving my socks on the floor.

Yes some would... most definitely however... I tend to divert my focus from people who quote 22 AB samples.

I have never suggested adding another player at 30M.

I'm not assuming that. Actually I'm not assuming anything... what I am doing is questioning the value of Santana and Margot types in comparison to Polanco and a major league minimum player at the same dollar amount. Have I looked back at mid/small market teams to substantiate this opinion? Yes... and you should know that I have. We were discussing this on March 3. I bolded one of my replies to you below... where I acknowledge your research and added some considerations. The bottom line is that there are times when small market teams need to get ahead and move a Corbin Burnes for future considerations... It is a viable strategy.... but there are also times when those teams that you studied have not done what you say they do. Cleveland and Tampa by themselves have traded vets for prospects with each other. Joe Ryan was a young prospect that Tampa provided us for the rental of Nelson Cruz. It isn't one size fits all... Context matters. But to answer your question... Yes... I have looked at mid/small market teams... I've looked at the big market teams to... All 30 clubs to be exact. And you should know that I have. I'm guessing that the Brewers would be a good team to add to your list of 3 teams. The Brewers have spent a lot of time in contention and they have loudly at times moved players on expiring contracts for prospects and certainly revenue challenged, Trading value before they reach free agency is absolutely a viable strategy. Cleveland, Tampa and Oakland have done a great job of this as you point out. Now there are some considerations that come to my mind. 1. There are primarily 3 ways that teams acquire players for their team. Draft/IFA Development, Free Agency/Waivers and of course trades. If a team doesn't participate fully in one of those areas.... for example If they shop the waiver wires and bargain basement free agents... it would in theory produce a low percentage in that avenue of talent acquisition... therefore a natural by-product would be higher percentage in your model from the other two avenues. Development or Trades, You have 100% to account for. If Free Agency only accounts for 10%.... There is 90% to divide up between the other two. You'd have to compare contrast across all teams. I'd guess that any team that typically stays out of free agency is going to have a higher percentage of development or trades. 2. Of the 3 primary ways to acquire talent or WAR as you are using as a measurement. Only 1 avenue requires sending WAR Back and that is trades. Kyle Manzardo will probably be a shining star in your research for a while if you continue with it. But, the WAR that Aaron Civale who they traded for him has to be factored in. Right Now... I'm betting that Cleveland is sorry that they gave up a lot of future WAR by trading Junior Caminero. Nolan Jones looks like a big negative in that department. Will Benson with the Reds might be someone they would like back. 45% via trade does look impressive but I can't help wonder how much WAR went the other way. 3. Context has to be considered. You use the Rays as an example and rightly so. However, They are the team gave up Manzardo for Civale. They were the team that gave up Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz. Context contending or not contending determines if they acquire prospects or if they acquire expiring contracts. I agree with you... the Twins should pay attention to what these teams are doing. They have done well. But... Context matters. I think the Twins are contenders... I think Polanco is one of the best hitters on the team. I would have kept him.

With Wallner out - 3 pure lefties are stacked at 1,2 and 4 in the lineup. I'll bet money right now that after Ross is pulled... either left hander Hudson or Milner is brought in to face the top of the order. With Ross it's possible it's a quick pull. At least we hope it's a quick pull. That will put Margot and Martin into the game early. Wallner is either dinged up or he is being saved for pinch hit duties in the 9th with Uribe and Payamps the right handed firemen. Milwaukee also has an off day tomorrow so I think the entire pen would be at Pat Murphy's availability.

I agree with you. My adjectives are a little lighter but it was a step back in my eyes.

You are correct.

The front office has a hard job to do so I really try to look at things from all angles. I don't always succeed but I try. I can concede the necessity of the trade based on getting something for an expiring contract. The acquisition of Gabriel Gonzalez alone probably made the Twins the winner when it comes to value. Only time will tell if they win the trade but at the time of the deal. Polanco is a free agent after this season so getting a top 100 prospect is a good get. However... I can't concede that this trade improved the 2024 club. Seattle acquired Polanco and gave up a prospect to improve the club in 2024 not 2025 or 2029. What the Mariners are doing acquiring a top line player is what the Twins should be doing. I can also concede the necessity of the trade based on budget restrictions. Every team has a budget. However... the money saved in the Polanco trade was spent acquiring Santana, Desclafini and Margot. That's 27 million worth of baseball players with 14 million of it paid by other clubs to not play for them. The Dodgers, Giants and Mariners are all paying money for Disco and Margot to not play for them. We took a big piece and turned him into multiple smaller pieces. We had plenty of smaller pieces to choose from... we needed more big pieces. Ultimately in my eyes... it's really hard to justify a team scratching for dollars under a reduced budget with a team that made the playoffs in 2023... to spend 14 million on short side platoons. Instead of spending 14 million on one player that could make a difference every single day.

The question to me is this: Would you rather have Wallner face a lefty in 7th or Margot face a righty in the 9th. Based on usage last year and so far this year... It's going to be Margot facing a righty in the 9th. I saw Wallner hit a ball over the batters eye in Fort Myers against a pretty good lefty in AJ Minter in spring training. I vote for Wallner facing a right handed closer in the 9th when you are down a run. Wallner is perhaps our biggest home run threat. But... It's going to be how it's going to be.

Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Santana and Castro are going to play close enough to every day. Our season will depend primarily on those 5 players or whoever replaces them with every day roles during times of injury due to roster size limitations. 13 positions players - 2 are a catcher rotation - 6 players are part of rigid platoon combos. That leaves 5 players who play nearly every day. Rocco was rigid with his execution last year and he has started 2024 with the same rigid sensibilities. Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff not only won't start against left handers but they will be yanked mid game when left handers like Milner hit the stage. Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff won't be around in the ninth to get a needed clutch hit against a right handed closer because they were lifted early. When the ninth comes it will be Margot in the box instead of Wallner to face Abner.

Royce Lewis is out for two months after two AB's and you still want to make this same point? Like Chief pointed out... Manuel Margot was our opening day DH and you still want to make this same point? Alex Kirilloff was in LF by game two and you still want to make this point? Julien still isn't in the lineup against left handers. Santana leads the team in plate appearances. Willie Castro is our everyday 3B and you still want to make this point? It's just game three. Your paper lineup doesn't have any staying power. You are standing in the middle of a lineup already in flux around you. But... Nevermind all of that. Polanco would not be a bench player.

Polanco would not have been a bench player!!! Polonco hit 2nd in the order for us during the playoffs last year. He is hitting third in the lineup for the Mariners thus far this year.

Castro and Farmer over Polanco? That is the exact opposite of what the Twins did in the playoffs.

In my opinion. The loss of DeSclafini doesn't matter. However... It took one day to demonstrate that the loss of Jorge Polanco does matter.

It is vital that the Twins develop pitching and keep developing it. The depth that this article refers to is always going to come from the farm and players with options. It should never come from players like DeSclafini or Bundy or Archer. At some point the depth players listed in this article are going into the rotation. It is up to the Twins to have them ready for the opportunity that is coming soon. It is critical. We all know that the Twins are not going to sign the big name free agent pitcher and if they are not going to sign the big name free agent pitcher. They must DEVELOP their own pitching. The loss of Desclafini is quite possibly helpful. It's up to the Twins pitching pipeline development. BTW... Another consideration in case creativity is needed. Bullpen games every 5th day are not out of the question.

Probably lost an hour there and a half hour back. The way there was painful. I figured out what the problem was. Left turns. Any car taking a left has to stop and wait and therefore everybody else has to wait and bottleneck. Single road 15 MPH. Left at 7AM got some breakfast arrived in Key West around 12:30. Walked Duval Street from South to North and back. Got back to my hotel around 8:30p

I heard him tell the guy to crank it to 95