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wavedog

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Everything posted by wavedog

  1. wavedog
    I was checking some advanced hitting stats a week or two ago and if memory serves me this club is near the bottom at both chase rate - swinging and missing at pitches out of the strike zone and swinging and missing at pitches in the strike zone. So basically a lot of swings and misses - so we have some combination of lesser talented hitters, we are hunting mistakes and swinging for the fences, poor pitch recognition and/or lack of preparation. I do see some hitters trying to take the ball the other way at times and there is a room for a mix of hitting approaches in the lineup but I think we are too heavily loaded on the swing hard approach. I am just thinking if we have a heavy detectable approach rather than mixing it up - it becomes easier to develop a pitching plan against our hitters - and then when facing a better class of pitchers in playoff games where mistakes are fewer that leads to a very limited offense.
  2. wavedog
    Gray had actually gotten the first 3 hitters in the order out 1-2-3 in the 1st and 3rd innings. He had problems with hitters 4-8 in the order in innings 2 and 4. That is why I was thinking to run him out for another inning to ease the load a little bit on the bullpen. Not saying he would do the same in the 5th but those were not the hitters he was struggling with. I did not think about the 35 pitch inning in the 4th impacting that decision but Gray is a veteran and given all the factors I probably would still have run him out for the 5th at 79 pitches.
  3. wavedog
    We have been complaining about the same offensive issues the past several years and nothing fundamentally changes. I think as long as we have this regime nothing will change. I would be curious to see if there would be any difference in performance if for say Bruce Bochy was manager and running the philosophy. Watching Tampa Bay play this past series was a pleasure - they seem to be able to maximize their opportunities and we are inefficient. We do not do the little things correctly and that makes a big difference. Pitching has been real nice this year but addressing some hitting topics: I think the verdict is in - the shift did not take hits away from Kepler. He is batting no better than the last couple of years Byron Buxton body is like a 70 yr old not a 30 something year old. Unless he is the amazing benjamin button probably not going to get any healthier. Can't even last as a DH only - sad to say. Change in training staff has not curtailed injuries - we still have a revolving door of injured players. Polanco hurts hamstring - comes back - aggravates hamstring again. Are we doing stretching and yoga? I don't think the injuries are coming from practicing fundamentals maybe from swinging hard and missing so much. I don't think this aggressive pinch-hitting approach this year is working - we end up running out of roster when facing the closer of the other team. Maybe makes no difference because no one is hitting. We are not taking that approach on relief pitching - we are not dropping Duran in the 6th inning to bail out of a jam.
  4. wavedog
    Taylor has good value as a 4th outfielder/defensive sub and pinch runner. Unfortunately the team is not using him in that role - he has played in the most games of any position player this year. I'll say one thing for him unique to this team - he can stay healthy - well at least until we overexpose him and wear him out.
  5. wavedog
    A couple of observations: Can't say this with certainty but I believe if Royce Lewis had not been called up and playing this week we would be 1-3 instead of 3-1 and not feeling quite as good. Love the spark, attitude and talent he brings to the team! Glad he did not get hurt trying to catch that pop-up - held my breath a minute. We can all point to various player stats as to player value but I am glad Castro was batting with the bases loaded in the 9th and not Gallo. Shout out to Pagan and Jax for shutting down the Guardians - especially Pagan who I have been a harsh critic of. Maybe best to stick pitching him in games we are trailing and not leading. Jax also looked very good. Can't believe Buxton can find a way to get hurt DHing only - not his fault tough to get a pitch in the ribs. Maybe we try a few more games resting Correa, Buxton and Kepler and get Wallner up here while he is hot.
  6. wavedog
    Frustrating to watch bad fundamental baseball - just not playing smart. Team has been in a funk (with the exception of pitching) for the past week - I was hoping the day off would help them reset but we are returning to some of the frustrations we have seen in recent years in poor fundamental play and hitting woes. Hello Manager and coaches - please help the players! A couple of notes: Every time Jax comes in this year seems like the wheels fall of - combination of dinky hits, walks and errors lead to runs. Last night - thought he could have made a better play on Kirilloff's throw and the error should have been on him - then he walked a batter - then weird throwing error not sure if Vazquez should have thrown but the ball was there for Miranda to catch Horrible at-bats - we are swinging at balls and watching strikes and seems like we are trying to hit 6-run Home runs each time up. Really impressed with Taylor - solid defense and he takes good at-bats. He is not the best hitter but he can bunt, run and patiently take the ball the other way. I also like Kirilloff's approach at the plate. Don't know what the heck is going on with Correa but he is absolutely a black hole in the offense the past week - needs a day off. I am pretty confident he will be back to his numbers by year end. Hopefully it is not too late by the time he kicks in. His defense is still solid. Need to see more Jeffers now and maybe less Vazquez for the short-term. I would bring Farmer up and DFA Solano - seen enough of Solano's defense
  7. wavedog
    There is no one I enjoyed batting more than Luis Arraez and I will certainly miss watching him play for the Twins but I like this trade. We are selling high and I do worry about Arraez durability which his knees, in addition although his defense was good at first he was playing out of position. I was kind of wondering if we would move Polanco and shift Arraez to 2nd. In any case, I like all 3 players we received in the deal. We get a starting pitcher for at least 2 years and you can never have enough pitching and while very young - like the prospects we got with some speed and plate discipline - not close to Luis Arraez plate discipline for sure but better than we are used to seeing from others here. Interested to see how many games Kiriloff will be able to start at 1B and who might share the position with him - Miranda with Farmer playing 3B when Miranda plays 1B?
  8. wavedog
    Good Topic - you wrote what I have been thinking! The analytics they are looking at likely show bunting, stealing bases and baserunning are not the smart percentage play and certainly if don't practice and try to perfect them and play players with speed then that is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Watching last year I do not remember seeing many hit and runs either which is one reason why we were at the top of grounding into Double Plays. I believe from my point of view their hitting philosophy is try to maximize hitting the ball the hardest each plate appearance and that will pay more dividends than doing a lot of little things (bunting, stealing, hit and run). It was very frustrating last year watching us give up outs on the bases while the opposition was doing the opposite to us on the bases. I have not seen any moves that would change that philosophy this offseason so expect more of the same next year - I hope I am wrong.
  9. wavedog
    Who needs Correa when you have Joey Gallo? lol! Offseason is not done yet of course but my excitement level for this season is about as low as it was in the late 90's. Hard to envision being competitive and if everything does fall right the highest bar would be winning the weak Central and getting swept in the first round. I have a dream scenario for the 2nd half of the 2023 season that would get me re-energized in the Twins Lewis is at SS, Martin in OF, Miranda rotating at 3B/DH, Arraez rotating at 1B/DH, Kirilloff at 1B/OF, Buxton is healthy, Vazquez/Jeffers healthy. Gallo has had a great first half and we trade him to the Mets for a pitching prospect. We either have extended from the group Maeda/Gray/Mahle (hoping at least 2 out of the 3 stay healthy) the ones we like to keep using the funds we have not spent this offseason and traded who we don't want to sign for young starting pitching prospects. We teach and emphasize sound fundamental baseball play. They had Game #7 review of the 1991 World Series this week on the MLB network and I re-watched it. It was refreshing to watch all the little plays the Twins executed so well in that game.
  10. wavedog
    I guess we know the Twins weren't even the 2nd choice now. Wonder if they reached out to the Twins or not. Looks like he will be playing 3B now as well with Lindor at short
  11. wavedog
    Does not check any of the boxes for what we need. With the exception of Vazquez what a nightmare of an offseason so far and they are paying $11M for this. The one positive in signing Gallo is the shift ban but that may not matter if he strikeouts half the time. Honestly I would have rather kept Urshela 10 times over and for less money
  12. wavedog
    Well, when we signed Correa last year I told myself I would enjoy watching his one season with the Twins and then be prepared for him to move on to greener pastures. Still this news is disappointing as I thought we had a chance to sign him. I did enjoy watching his one season with us solid defense and hitting - great teammate - but now we move on. I can't see these big contracts playing out well in the long run but as everyone has said the rich teams can afford to take the hit. I kind of view his deal as a 7 yr $50M per year deal as I see him with about 7 solid full seasons out of the 13. How many 35+ year old shortstops are out there? And once you get the big guaranteed money does that take some of the edge off? Your 35 year old self can change from your 28 year old self.
  13. wavedog
    Short answer, I hope so - he does have the skill of hitting left-handers but falls short on hitting right-handers and playing defense. Plus there are the age and injury concerns that have been brought up. Ideally I would like to find a Right-Hand (real requirement is an OF that can hit Left-handers) good-fielding OF that can play CF-RF. That way they can start in RF spelling Kepler and also back up CF when Buxton is out to provide a Right-hand option. I really wanted that this past off-season but we did not acquire an asset like that and kept Garlick. If we keep Garlick it should be on a minors deal and he should be removed from the 40-man roster.
  14. wavedog
    I would take this year over last year for sure. It is very disheartening maybe more than frustrating to be eliminated from playoff contention by the end of April. I had modest expectations for this year - I had the Twins for 79 wins finishing way behind the Sox so being in a pennant race is a nice surprise. In addition to the items listed in the article other frustrating items are being non-competitive against the very top teams, lack of fundamentals in particular baserunning and situational hitting. A lot of positives though - Arraez as a top hitter, solid play at SS and at the plate from Correa, Urshela is a solid player, development and emergence of Miranda and Gordon. Gray, Ryan and Bundy have been solid pitchers and Duran has been great in the bullpen and I will throw in Jax as well. Also have had fewer frustrating at-bats from Sano this year compared to last year. Can't say the same for Kepler and Sanchez at-bats.
  15. wavedog
    They are built for October if that means their strength is watching football and going trick-or-treating. I do have to hand it to the team for staying in the race despite injuries, bullpen blowups, lousy base-running and situational hitting. In large part that is due to having a weak division this year. If they get these injured players back - will they immediately step in and perform or by the time they get acclimated back will the season be over? Or will they get re-injured or suffer new injuries? The one constant with the team is having a revolving crew of injured players. Make no mistake - I will be rooting for the team to get hot and take the division title but the team is going to have to step up and play much better than we have seen in a while. As for if we make October - we are not playing sound fundamental baseball and we don't have a big enough talent advantage to overcome that which would likely lead to a quick playoff exit.
  16. wavedog
    Correa has been solid this year and glad we signed him but not worth the $35M. Certainly he can produce better next year if he opts to stay here but I think someone will give him the $35M for 10 years he is looking for in the open market and he will get paid if he opts out. He could stay here if we offer him that deal but not suggesting that the Twins should or would do that. I viewed the signing as a one year deal and I planned on enjoying watching him play for us this year.
  17. wavedog
    To be fair Buxton gets hurt every year so I am not sure that shutting him down for this season would be a benefit. If there is a good chance that continuing to play would cause a knee injury which would shelve him for all next year then I am for shutting him down. It could be a 10 day rest is sufficient to get him back on the field - and given our current set of outfielders we need him playing as long as we have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Of course, given the way we are currently playing and Cleveland is playing that shot may be over in 10 days.
  18. wavedog
    We had our best pitcher and a well-rested bullpen and the lead in this game against a Dodger fill-in starter and still lost by 3 runs. Disappointing series to say the least. The way Kepler is swinging he can't be batting clean-up. Let's see if we can do anything against the Angels.
  19. wavedog
    Thanks for this article - it supports the eye test from watching games this year. If we are not the worst base-running team we are certainly in the discussion. It also helps explain why we have a boom or bust offense. The sprint speed stats were interesting as well.
  20. wavedog
    I think with the current minor injury situations with Buxton and Kepler I would have kept Celestino and sent down Garlick - just to have a better defensive option in the outfield for this week's games. Certainly hope Sano comes out hitting hot but my expectations are tempered.
  21. wavedog
    Assuming the $750K offer hinged on him starting now - the offer would not be available at the end of our season which is the reason Wes is leaving in the middle of the season. Stinks as a fan of the Twins but not sure how many of us would turn down that substantial a raise for doing a relatively similar job.
  22. wavedog
    You know you are in trouble hitting-wise when we are rotating DH'ing our catchers who combined are hitting below .200 and are slow as molasses on the basepaths. Sanchez I can maybe see as a DH but Jeffers should never be the DH. Garlick in the 4 hole is another gem. FO did not bring in enough depth this offseason. I have mentioned this before so don't want to beat a dead horse but we also move players all over the lineup card each game which I think hurts any consistent production. Looking at the opposing teams lineups we have played this season - they like to stick to a pretty consistent order. So there is plenty of blame to go around - players, managers and FO .
  23. wavedog
    Well, something to look forward to - another bullpen arm potential bust. Let me ask a question - Is there a bullpen arm we have that is not a potential bust? Hopefully he channels some suggested changes and pieces together a nice season for the Twins this year and he can move on and be a bust for the White Sox next season.
  24. wavedog
    That was a game we should have won - certainly if expect to be a .500 team and possible playoff contender. Their starting pitcher was not good but their bullpen had no trouble shutting us down. Wondering if the fact that our lineup and bullpen usage is so scattered has an impact on this team of humans. Maybe a computer model suggests all these different lineups and bullpen usage should work best but humans like some more certainty to perform better. One more thing I will say is that we had a full offseason to improve our backup OF positions and bullpen but it looks no different than last year. 2 injured players who were also injured last year by the way and we are left without adequate replacements. For me - no more Garlick - I would have preferred to keep Gordon in the game - at least he has speed. I don't get our affinity with slow plodding outfielders.
  25. wavedog
    Can we trade Kirilloff's injured wrist for Sano's good wrist and then send Sano down for a rehab assignment until June while Kirilloff takes over first base? it's still early - I would keep Sano in the lineup for at least the rest of this month but start planning for a possible replacement. This is really Sano's prove it year - he came in better shape - we have to hope something connects like the bat with the ball.
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