Seansy

While I would agree our self scouting failures have been big missed opportunities (Anderson, Wade, etc.) I can hardly fault the team for not protecting Baddoo in the Rule 5 draft. Struggled at High A ball in 2019 and had TJ. No play time last year. Just shrug your shoulders at that one. I also hate how much people overrate things like Escobar or Pressly in those trades. Escobar was traded from a non playoff team (with 0 additional years of control!) for what is now one of our global top 100 pitching prospects. Pressly refused to make the changes the Twins asked him to do but did so once Houston traded for him. 1.5 years of him for 6-7 years of Alcala and Celestino. I've would do both of those trades again in a second and so should every other Twins fan. Any production they have AFTER they sign extensions SHOULD NOT be counted as part of their production after they are traded.

Oh they would probably do that. I was just saying you aren't getting both for just Berríos.

You won't get both for just Berríos. I like package #2 from the Mets best.

I have to disagree regarding Luis Gil. Cave wass DFA'D by the Yankees and the Twins decided to jump the waiver wire by offering Gil for Cave. While that would be defensible if Cave worked out I'm worried about his drop-off the past couple years and the seriousness of his recent injury. I remember reading at fangraphs they were surprised the Twins chose to trade something to acquire him. Since it was skipped it is worth mentioning that Ynoa wasn't a great find by Atlanta but pure luck. They wanted J.T. Chargois but medical stopped it so they ended up with Ynoa as a last moment replacement. Nobody was banging the table for him for Atlanta. Still a whiff on our end.

Obligatory "Will is stronger than your doubt" comment needed from Dusty... lol.

For me I want them to get the best prospect they can get regardless of the level they are at. The main reason they got Duran is because he was in Low A at the time so he was much farther from the majors which means a higher risk of whiffing on the prospect. They also picked him up before he broke out when his value was lower too compared to now when he's a top 100 guy. Same thing happened against the Twins with Ynoa and Gil when they traded them away.

Love this trade idea. Sending the Rays some cash and getting them out from under KK's contract will definitely help in getting some quality prospects. Very similar to some Twins/Rays trade ideas I have posted on that website previously ?

I think Falvey has delivered the pipeline of pitching talent but it's just been delayed due to COVID cancelling the minors season last year and all of the injuries now in the following year. Canterino, Enlow, Sands, Ober, Winder, Duran, etc. are all guys they have acquired and developed since taking over. We would usually have only ONE, MAYBE TWO, guys like that in the system in any given year in those "rebuilding years" from 2011-2016 and that was WITH drafting high for guys like Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart. I definitely think Falvey has held up his end of the pipeline even if we're only just barely starting to see the fruits of those labors. The trades (Levine) and FA have been more of a mixed bag. You have to give Levine credit for Cruz given their past history in Texas but a lot of their top targets that they missed out on have looked great elsewhere (Darvish, Wheeler, Semien) while their back up targets haven't been as good (JD, Simmons). Some trades like for Odorizzi and Duran have been good but others like Ynoa, Gil, etc. have been bad. The Pressley trade was hated at the time but Celestino and Alcala both look like quality current/future big leaguers. Mixed bag that will grade much more negatively after their whiffs with Happ, Colome, and Shoemaker this year. I'll chalk up their pitching FA whiffs this year to bad luck/variance and give them a mulligan but if they whiff again next year I'll likely have lost faith in them at that point.

I would rather keep them both but if we have to pick one I'd extend Buxton and trade Berrios. Give me the MVP candidate and I'll roll the dice on health. Berrios should fetch a HAUL at the trade deadline otherwise they can hang onto him for another year.

Both option 1 and 3 seem fine. The Chi Sox should be paying a PREMIUM for an intradivision trade. Isn't that what we always keep hearing from national reporters? I'm asking for either Kelley or BOTH Thompson AND Dalquist for Cruz and some cash sent to the Sox. Might have to throw in a reliever like Robles or Alex (if they want him back) but that should be a doable trade. Otherwise the Rays are the other team that we know is/was interested in Cruz for trade.

Agree but I think either Burrows or an injured guy like Stashak or Smeltzer will take Robles' roster spot when traded. Hopefully, Alexander and Happ gets dumped too for someone else like Winder and Moran/Cano.

Hi John, Are you including buyouts for payroll? Sańo is only owed 9.25M for 2022. His 2.75M buyout is only for the 2023 team option. Not sure if Alexander's buyout is included either. Spelling error on Garlick too. ?

My position with both Berrios and Buxton is the same. Extend them if they will sign a "reasonable" extension (~5/100M tops for Berrios and ~6/150M tops for Buxton for me imo) or trade them at the deadline while their value is at its peak. If you cannot get get good value on a trade you can still just hang on to them and try to extend them in the offseason one last time. The Twins should be able to get at least 1 if not 2 top 100 prospects for each. Ideally you get a future CF replacement like Pache and future rotation piece like Gore, Pearson, SWR, or Baz back to replace the guy you trade away, then use some of the money saved to sign a quality FA or two like Gausman/Stroman/Baez/Correa and combine all of that to reload for 2022. Call it Tampa Bay 2.0 because the Twins payroll isn't THAT low.

With Pache struggling to hit at the MLB level to start the season a Buxton for Pache trade would be a possible trade idea too since the Braves are starting guys like ENDER INCIARTE and his 588 OPS as well as Guillermo Heredia... Definitely agree on your 4 although the Brewers having Cain and JBJ under contract with Yelich and Garcia makes the fit weird despite their struggles.

Blaming a player not ready for the majors yet for failing at doing everything right when they're pushed to play too early due to injuries is just beating a dead horse. Writing off a prospect pushed into his situation because of a few bad plays in a small sample is unwise. Here's a short highlight reel from 2020 put together by Tom showing how good he can be once he is ready for the majors:

Definitely gave up too early on him. They still had an option left to try to fix him this year.

I agree with everything except POSSIBLY trade Buck and Berrios. If you get offered a haul at the trade deadline you take it because they help a team for 2 playoff runs rather than only 1. Only do it if you get at least a GOOD package AND they REFUSE to sign any extension by the trade deadline.

I have no idea how you can berate the Pressly trade NOW after already seeing Alcala succeeding and with Celestino close to being MLB ready at AA. Alcala is really "nothing" to you but hope? We traded 1.5 years of Pressley on a non contending team in 2018 for 6-7 years of Celestino and Alcala. I'd do that trade again in a heartbeat. I'd agree that it is easy to reload for 2022 by ditching Happ, Shoe, Colome, etc. but if you CANNOT reasonably extend Berrios or Buck by the trade deadline it makes sense to shop them around for difference making level prospects like Pache, Pearson, etc to see if you can do the Pressly trade AGAIN by trading 1.5 years of a player for 6-7 years of one or more other guys that can improve this team long term.

I think all 3 of Moran, Cano, and Mason are deserving of a promotion. Plenty of guys at AAA are struggling enough to either be demoted or released to make room for them in St Paul.

It is worth mentioning that you only need 2 teams competing for one player to get into a theoretical "bidding war" on a trade piece. Obviously the more buyers the better but between Oakland, TB, and even the White Sox with Yermin slumping badly this past month+ I think that is enough teams that would be interested in Cruz to get at least 1 top 100 prospect or multiple high upside guys. From what I'm seeing reading lots of baseball writers on the Twins trade pieces most of them seem to believe Cruz will fetch a good return even as a rental for the same reasons he's been such a great fit for the Twins. We'll see what happens over the next couple of months but if a guy like Escobar with little track record can get a projectable young pitcher like Duran I don't see how Cruz can't get AT LEAST that if not significantly more.

Logical fit and honestly the Twins can and SHOULD include cash given TB's payroll constraints. TB has so many legit prospects they have trouble keeping them all on their 40man roster! Getting 1 or 2 guys with some high upside or low level top 100 guy like Shane Baz for Cruz should be doable.

You are reading a report from when he signed as a 16 year old... Hopefully it's just nerves from being called up and/or only having played for a month after not playing last year but you cannot write off a prospect after only 2 games. Mike Trout absolutely SUCKED his first month that he was called up.

Trade him. You can sign him in the offseason.

Agree 100% with this. He's a multi time All Star, still young, durable, and has upside. He'll get something around what Zach Wheeler got, maybe a little less. If the Twins are out of it they should definitely listen to offers for him because he's not signing an extension, let alone a "team friendly" one. Of the prospects you listed the Blue Jays guys are the only ones in the Top 100 at MLB.com and are generally regarded as top 100 type guys around the industry. Much like they did with Duran I don't mind them searching for projectable high upside young arms in a trade but given Jose's track record I think they should only trade them if they get AT LEAST 1 top 100 guy if not more. Remember, The Jays asked for one of Lewis or Kirilloff for Stroman and he had 1.5 years left like Jose. Is Stroman really better than Jose? Significantly so? Looking at their Savant pages I'd argue no. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcus-stroman-573186?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jose-berrios-621244?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb We'll see where they are at in a few weeks but if they cannot make a run they should shoot for high end guys only and if nobody is willing to trade them that then just hold onto him for next year.

Great job with this interview and article!