Cody Pirkl

The Dodgers cut a former top prospect catcher last week. With the Twins potentially parting ways with a catcher at some point this offseason, should they take a flier? Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images The Dodgers signed infielder Hyeseong Kim on Friday. To make room on their 40-man roster, they designated former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya for assignment, after a few rough seasons. Still just 22 years old, Cartaya will undoubtedly get a shot with another organization. With plenty of question marks at the catcher position, should the Twins be the ones to give him a chance? As recently as 2023, Cartaya ranked atop the Dodgers' prospects list and was in the upper portion of the global top 100 prospects. His 2024 season could be considered a bounce-back season, which speaks to how poor his 2023 season was, considering he slashed .221/.323/.363 between Double-A and Triple-A even in 2024. So why would a competing team like the Twins consider taking a flier? Cartaya’s former status as a top prospect was well-earned. In 2022, he slashed .254/.389/.503 with 22 homers, to build on an already-impressive résumé. His slash line was 39% better than the league average in that season, made all the more impressive because he did it at catcher, where any offensive contribution is a bonus. Cartaya simply hasn’t hit the last two seasons. Perhaps the duties of an everyday catcher became too much to maintain his offense as he rose through the minor leagues. It’s possible the book got out on him, and opposing pitchers found his weaknesses. Despite his poor performance, though, seeing the Dodgers cut bait on a 22-year-old former top prospect at a premium position was shocking. The decision was made easier for Los Angeles by being replaced at the top of the prospect rankings by fellow catcher Dalton Rushing. Even so, only for the league's most talent-laden team would Cartaya have been considered DFA fodder. Now, 29 other teams have a chance to let Cartaya reestablish himself. The Twins have plenty of catching depth at the moment, between Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vázquez, and Jair Camargo. However, it’s probably safe to say that group isn’t strong enough to keep the team from bringing in competition. With payroll restrictions in place, a salary dump of Vázquez is also a possibility this winter. Cartaya’s profile is not entirely dissimilar to Camargo’s, which is another question mark about acquiring him. Both are at risk of striking out too much, but carry enough pop in their bats to make them stand out offensively. It’s worth noting that despite the poor offensive performance from the two MLB catchers in 2024, Camargo got minimal opportunities—despite being on the 40 man roster. It’s possible the Twins saw Camargo as more of an emergency backup, in which case they would certainly be open to making an addition. Cartaya also has an option remaining, making the stakes much lower. If the Twins feel Cartaya would benefit from working with the hitting coaches in their organization, they could put it to the test in St. Paul, rather than guaranteeing him an Opening Day roster spot. If Vázquez is dealt away for salary relief, perhaps the Twins would trust Camargo more as the backup catcher in MLB, while they try to help Cartaya to a rebound season in Triple-A. Acquiring Cartaya would be such a low-risk, high-reward move that it makes too much sense for the Twins not to at least put in a waiver claim. In all likelihood, several teams ahead of them on the waiver priority will be thinking the same way, making a trade the likeliest scenario if they did acquire him. Even in that case, the cost would likely be a low-level prospect, making the possibility very real if the Twins decide to give Cartaya a shot. Should the Twins make a low-risk, high-reward bet on a former top-prospect catcher? If so, should they go the extra mile and try to trade for him, rather than leave it up to the waiver priority? Let us know below! View full article

Image courtesy of © David Frerker-Imagn Images, Kirby Lee-Imagn Image, Jerome Miron-Imagn Images The Twins have done very little to address their significant holes in the bullpen. The hope was that they would be able to bring in at least one proven relief arm from the high end of free agency. As we head into the new year, it appears unlikely that they will do so, as options are becoming scarce. It looks like they’re going to wait out the market once again and continue seeing just how little a team can value relief pitchers while still trying to compete. Luckily, the remaining free-agent pool is not without options capable of putting up elite seasons in the bullpen. Evan Phillips Phillips was a legitimate high-end reliever before Tommy John surgery cut his season short in May. At 31 years old, Phillips may not be quite ready to start the season, but he may match up well at the top of the Twins bullpen hierarchy as he looks to prove to the league that he’s healthy and deserving of a bigger deal in 2027. When last healthy in 2024, Phillips was solid, posting a 3.62 ERA in just under 55 innings. However, he was flat-out dominant during the 2022-2023 seasons, striking out around 30% of hitters and posting a sub-2.00 ERA across 124 innings in the Dodgers' bullpen. His velocity had dipped just a touch before injury, which begs the question as to whether he can once again average above 96 mph on the fastball now that the elbow is fixed. Evan Phillips would be a proven name to lead the Twins' bullpen, as he is inarguably better than any of their other options if healthy. His health will be the main question. At this point, we have no reason to believe there are any unforeseen concerns heading into 2026. If he’s willing to take a prove-it deal, Phillips and the Twins would be an excellent match for a mutually beneficial 2026 season. Seranthony Dominguez Though far from consistent in his career, Seranthony Dominguez has the big-time stuff the Twins bullpen is lacking, and 2025 was something of a breakout. The fact that he’s still available says the league may be skeptical. This may lead to a prime opportunity for the Twins to take a gamble. Dominguez had a few dominant seasons with the Phillies at the start of his career, then spent 2025 with the Orioles and later with the World Series runner-up Blue Jays. He posted a 3.16 ERA overall across 62 innings, with the second-best strikeout rate of his career. He developed a devastating splitter, which posted a near-50 % whiff rate, along with a dominant slider to match, as well as his usual high-90s fastball. It’s easy to see how Dominguez could dominate at the back end of games. The primary concern is the control, as his 13.8% walk rate was borderline untenable. It’s worth noting that this was the worst rate of his career, and was really the only red flag in his profile. Perhaps teams are wary of him for this reason, but for a team in need of upside, Dominguez is a terrific fit. The longer he stays available, the more likely their price points will match. Jose Leclerc Falling into a similar bucket to Evan Phillips, Lecerc suffered a lat strain early in the 2025 season, which required surgery. As a result, teams haven’t been quick to sign him despite his career stretches of success and strong raw stuff. For this reason, he’s another potential high-end reliever who could benefit from a one-year prove-it deal at the top of a needy bullpen. Leclerc has a solid 3.34 ERA across 370 innings with an exceptional 30.8% strikeout rate. Walks are the big concern for him, and at times, they have kept him out of the closer role with the Rangers. With a mid to high-90s fastball and a dominant slider, he’s shown the ability to overcome the walks, making him another option to likely slot in at the very top of the Twins’ bullpen depth chart. Teams are unlikely to overpay for Leclerc, given concerns about his control and his significant injury last season. Unlike Phillips, he also lacks a sustained stretch of high-end production at the MLB level. That being said, the Twins can’t be too picky. His stuff is good enough to make him a worthwhile gamble, and if he continues to hang around on the market, the Twins would be wise to check in. It’s easy to get panicked watching the high-end relief options fly off the board, but it’s important to note that there are plenty of legitimately good relievers still on the market. The Twins are still in need of at least two additions to the group, but time remains on their side. Do any of the listed options interest you? Are there any other free agent relievers you feel could be legitimately dominant options for 2026? Let us know below! View full article

As one might expect following a historic collapse, several Twins players have big question marks heading into 2025. A few names will likely give the Twins front office a headache as they project how to move forward. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images The Twins don’t have an easy task this offseason as they try to return to contention under a strict budget. Making matters more difficult are several of their players whose futures are particularly murky. These players have shown tremendous upside, but it's also clear that at their worst, they don't even belong in the big leagues. Here are three players on the roster who find themselves in no man’s land headed into 2025. Edouard Julien Julien burst onto the scene as a rookie and looked like a potentially elite piece of the next great Twins team. Pairing plate discipline with power, Julien showed flashes of being one of the best-hitting second basemen in all of baseball through his first 400 plate appearances. Then it all fell apart. Julien never found his footing in 2024. His disciplined plate approach became his biggest weakness, as opposing pitchers discovered they could fill the strike zone while the bat remained on Julien’s shoulder. At times, Julien appeared more interested in walking than doing damage at the plate. He led the league in strikeouts looking, despite spending much of the season in St. Paul. He slashed an untenable .199/.292/.323, which was 20% below league average. Even his defense seemed to regress down the stretch, as he seemed to take his tough at-bats into the field with him. As one would expect following such a disappointing season, Julien has no guaranteed starting spot in 2025. Given the Twins’ glut of options in the infield, they’ll likely prioritize other players at second base, such as Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis. Julien may be shifted to first base out of necessity, where the bar to clear to be a helpful hitter will be much higher. His career will sink or swim with his offensive contributions, and in 2025, he’ll have to work his way back into the Twins' long-term plans. José Miranda The 2024 campaign was a strong bounceback season for Miranda, who suffered through an injury-riddled 2023 season. His final slash line of .284/.322/.441 was a pleasant surprise, but how he got there left plenty of questions for the Twins to ask moving forward. Miranda has always been a streaky hitter, and his resurgent season was a tale of two halves. His .888 OPS in the first half of the season was a big reason the Twins were in the thick of the division race. Unfortunately, his .543 OPS in the second half was a big reason they fell out of it. Miranda had back problems flare up partway through the season, and it felt like he was never the same upon his return. Like Julien, Miranda’s primary position in 2025 may be first base. His first-half performance would be more than adequate for the position, but the Twins may be concerned with the likelihood of those numbers sustaining themselves over a full season of regular playing time. Due to his plate approach and injury history, the team likely can’t rely on Miranda as a regular impact contributor. Miranda is a good bet to come up with some big performances in 2025, but it felt like he came up short of earning a place in the everyday lineup moving forward, and now his defensive fit will be a question mark, as well. Jorge Alcalá Like Miranda, Alcalá’s total body of work in 2024 has to be considered an enormous success. After years of injury, he threw 58 innings with a 3.24 ERA and supporting peripherals. He also fell apart down the stretch, leaving plenty of question marks heading into 2025. Alcalá averaged 98 miles per hour on his fastball in 2024 and still had his wicked slider. It’s possible his inning count just wore him down in his first entire season in years, but his 9.90 ERA in August was a significant factor in the Twins' collapse. Alcalá’s implosion against the Texas Rangers on Aug. 18 is often referred to as the tipping point of the season, and he tumbled down the bullpen hierarchy amidst several more poor outings down the stretch. Making matters more complicated is that the Twins do not appear to be believers in Alcalá. If their questionable usage of him for years before wasn’t enough, they demoted him in September to claim Cole Irvin off waivers. They used Irvin in high-leverage spots in what was likely the twilight of his MLB career, instead of sticking with Alcalá. He returned to throw just under 10 innings in September and allowed only two runs. Hopefully, his strong finish to the season is a sign of another solid season in 2025. Still, knowing what to expect from him is hard, especially given his shaky standing in the organization. The Twins might have a more manageable offseason if they had a better idea of what these three players can contribute in 2025. Are there any other players on the roster that fit this description? Let us know below! View full article

The Cubs have spent the offseason shuffling their roster. Have they positioned themselves as the perfect landing spot for Willi Castro, should the Twins decide to ship him out this winter? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Willi Castro is a uniquely valuable player and has been vital to the Twins roster for the last two years. Unfortunately, due to budgetary constraints, he’s one of the many players who could be on the move this winter. If they dump his contract, the Chicago Cubs appear to be a perfect fit for the Twins' super-utility man. Chicago just traded Cody Bellinger to the Yankees in what was essentially a salary dump, after he opted back into his contract. Now, they're in reinvestment mode, and they have some new positional needs. Castro can fill the same role for the Cubs as he has for the Twins. Chicago doesn’t have an everyday slot to pencil him into, but they have several positions he can help fill. Top prospect Matt Shaw is now expected to fill third base to begin the season, and Castro can either delay his call-up or fill in as needed. He can be injury insurance at second and shortstop for Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson, respectively. Bellinger’s departure also opens up playing time in center field, whenever Pete Crow-Armstrong is injured, in need of a break, or a bad matchup against an opposing lefty. Castro would still be able to play nearly every day and provide the Cubs with a stopgap at several positions as needed. The veteran is set to make roughly $6.2 million in 2025, according to MLB Trade Rumors. This would be considered a significant bargain on the open market for a player with Castro’s skill set, but the small amount makes all the difference for a Twins team with a strict, self-imposed payroll limit under which they need to duck. If the team is this strapped for cash, they could capitalize on the excess value of Castro at this price and rely on their youth at the positions he had previously filled. With several versatile players (such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin) on the roster, the team may see Castro as a candidate to be shipped out. What kind of deal can the Twins get for their super-utility man? A good baseline return for the Twins is someone like right-handed slugger Alexander Canario. The 24-year-old outfielder made a 15-game debut in 2024 and slashed .280/.357/.440. He may not be a candidate to fill in at center field, and strikeouts are a significant concern, but Canario would fit into the Twins' roster nicely, as a right-handed bat with significant thump. In 2022, he hit 37 homers between three levels of the minor leagues, and after an injury-riddled 2023, he hit another 18 in 64 games at Triple-A. Canario is out of options and would have to make the Twins roster on Opening Day, but he appears as ready for MLB action as ever. Also, he’s slashing .298/.388/.561 in the Dominican Winter League this offseason. While Canario is a low-floor player to get in return for Castro, he would fit the Twins' predilection for platoons in the outfield corners and carry plenty of upside. The Twins would also likely ask for another lower-level prospect in return, but Canario seems like an appropriate headliner in a deal that involves dumping Castro’s contract. If the Twins could convert a minor-league signee now on the doorstep of free agency into a player with six years of team control and another lottery ticket to bolster their farm system, it would count as a major win. Would a low-floor, high-ceiling player like Canario be a strong enough headliner to ship out Willi Castro? Should the Twins try to get more, or not consider trading Castro at all? Let us know below! View full article

As the Twins navigate a difficult payroll situation, shedding salary remains an unfortunate offseason priority. Could the Sacramento Athletics become a surprising option for the Twins to pass off some salary? Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The Athletics are reportedly in a polar opposite position to the Twins this offseason. They risk a player union complaint if they don’t add enough payroll. While they could spend this money on free agents (as they recently did with Luis Severino), they also become a target for teams like the Twins to talk to on the trade market. Chris Paddack, in particular, seems like a name that could be involved in a win-win deal. For the Twins, it would be dealing from the strength of their roster. They’re in a good spot with the rotation, between Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, younger arms such as David Festa and Zebby Matthews, and the top prospects waiting in St. Paul. After an up-and-down season, it’s unlikely Paddack will claim a rotation spot on Opening Day. Dealing him in the offseason would save $7.5 million and allow Paddack to remain a starter, which he certainly wants. From the A’s perspective, Paddack is the exact kind of addition they should be trying to make. Their MLB club has plenty of room in their rotation, and their farm system lacks any immediate impact starting pitching. While Paddack has his question marks regarding injury, one could argue that he still carries a fair bit of upside another year removed from Tommy John surgery. While the A’s may not care about Paddack winning them games every fifth day, he becomes a valuable potential trade chip for them once again at the deadline if he’s able to stay on the field. The Twins likely won’t ask for much in return for taking Paddack’s money off their books, and the A’s could quickly recoup whatever they gave up (and then some) if they flip Paddack to another contender amid a strong season. If Paddack doesn’t pan out, they’ve at least added $7.5 million to their payroll to help shield themselves from the ire of the players' union. In an ideal world, the Twins let Paddack’s contract play out, given the upside argument one could make. His 2025 salary will likely prove to be a bargain by the time the free-agent market plays out, but the Twins are in a spot where potentially getting a deal doesn’t matter, because the front office doesn’t have the money to make needed upgrades elsewhere. Paddack wouldn’t bring the same trade return as somebody like Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober, but trading him would leave less of a hole in the roster while shedding more money. It also stands to reason that Paddack’s trade return, while likely to be uninspiring, would bring more than that of a trade of someone like Christian Vázquez who may even require prospects on the back end to convince another team to pay that money. The list of teams willing to take on money this winter will likely be short, with several clubs similarly dealing with changes in broadcast revenues. The A’s have emerged as a prime target to dump some money, and the Twins should check in on doing so. Do you agree? View full article

The Dodgers signed freshly acquired utilityman Tommy Edman to a surprising contract extension over the holiday weekend. Should the Twins learn from this deal when considering the path forward with Willi Castro? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Willi Castro and Tommy Edman may not be identical players stylistically, but they’re both super-utility types who can be extremely valuable in the right role and circumstance. The Dodgers showed how valuable they believe such a player to be when they signed Tommy Edman to a 5-year, $74-million contract. With the Twins in a financial bind, they may find themselves looking at this deal and determining that their team MVP last season is even more valuable than we thought. Edman has had an up-and-down career, with a peak 2022 season in which he posted a .725 OPS to go along with the elite up-the-middle defense he’s consistently shown. In the two years since, he’s failed to reach those heights again, including a 2024 season in which even the defense disappointed—albeit in limited time, without a set position, and coming off a pair of major injuries. Still, the Dodgers see Edman’s skillset as one they want on their roster (with World Series aspirations) for the next five years. While Willi Castro lacks the high-end glove to hold up consistently at positions like center field and shortstop, he can fill in as needed and move around pretty much everywhere in the field. While he could likely settle into a few positions and provide plus defense, his ability to be available elsewhere is one of his strengths. Castro has shown more upside offensively, as his .750 OPS in 2023 and .717 OPS in 2024 were each 8% above the league average in those seasons. He also brings the same ability to switch-hit that Edman does. One could argue that Castro has a slight offensive edge over Edman, while Edman holds a significant defensive advantage. Castro likely wouldn’t attract the same deal on the open market today as Edman, especially considering the Dodgers had reportedly been trying to trade for him for years, but this deal suggests that Castro’s skillset may be valued more highly league-wide than we thought. There’s an arms race among the teams like the Dodgers and Mets, who are ready to make a statement with their payrolls. These teams will surely fill out the core of their rosters with high-end players like Juan Soto and Blake Snell. No addition appears to be off-limits for several teams this winter. Intelligent organizations understand that depth on their roster will become as valuable as the big names. As we saw with the Dodgers when they acquired and extended Edman, these teams understand how valuable a player like Castro can be. The Dodgers gave up former top-100 prospect Miguel Vargas and two young, far-off prospects for Edman and Michael Kopech in a three-team deal. While Castro has just the 2025 season left under contract, Edman was in the midst of one of the lower-end offensive seasons of his career when acquired. It’s fair to wonder whether a team such as the Blue Jays, Red Sox, or Mets would be willing to give up some pieces that have a shot to contribute in 2025 at some point. Shedding Castro’s estimated $6.8 million contract would also offer the Twins some financial flexibility to add at other positions, which is a consideration of this offseason. The Twins, of course, have seen the value in Castro’s skillset firsthand. While it can be argued that his potential value on the trade market just increased, it doesn’t change how much of an impact he can have on a 2025 Twins roster hoping to get back to the playoffs. For a team with so many players who miss chunks of time every season, Castro has been valuable beyond measure the last two seasons. An exciting wave of youth is still arriving over the next year, but it would be fair of the Twins to decide that a super-utility player such as Castro is more of a luxury than a need on this roster. Does Tommy Edman’s price mean the Twins should be more open to trading Willi Castro? Should they be checking in with the big-budget teams who can’t buy such a skillset on the open market? Should Castro be completely off-limits? Let us know below! View full article

The Twins have a pair of corner outfielders with similar profiles under team control over the next few seasons. As they try to thread the needle this offseason, will they decide that only one of them can fit through the eye? Image courtesy of orlando ramirez-usa today sports Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are currently likely to fill both corner outfield spots in the Twins' Opening Day lineup for 2025. Each has had their share of highs in a Twins uniform, and (alas) miserable lows to match. Could the Twins decide this winter that they would be better off not trusting both of them? Larnach and Wallner each saw their values completely bottom out at one point in 2024. Larnach seemed like a sure thing to be shipped out before the season, and Wallner quickly lost his starting job and was demoted to St. Paul after looking thoroughly lost at the MLB level throughout spring training and over the first fortnight of the regular campaign. For a Twins roster that finished the season at the lowest of lows, however, these two put up tremendous seasons and have given the Twins every reason to trust them in 2025. Whereas they appeared to be part of the problem early on, they were the only things about the team that worked down the stretch. Larnach’s rebound had much to do with completely retooling his plate approach. After three seasons and nearly 700 plate appearances with a strikeout rate over 30%, he lowered this mark to 22.3% in 2024—while posting a career high in homers and slugging average. He didn’t completely put his injury problems behind him, but he was able to play through much of the season with turf toe, which leaves one wondering if Larnach has yet another level he could attain. Wallner was one of the saviors of the Twins in 2023. but was demoted after striking out 17 times in 33 at-bats in April. He returned in July and slashed .282/.386/.559 with 12 homers the rest of the way. He was one of the few offensive players pulling their weight during the team’s historic collapse. Importantly, though, he did so with a strikeout rate well above 30%. Both players have established themselves as high-upside offensive players who are limited defensively and still possess plenty of red flags when evaluating their futures. For a team likely trading away starting players from other parts of the roster, Larnach or Wallner could each be dangled on the trade market as part of what could be a sizeable shakeup. A team like the Twins, who value defensive chops, may be nervous about running out this pair, given the defensive falloff they would see with Max Kepler’s departure. One could argue that each of these sluggers putting up slightly better than average offense would bridge the gap, but if the Twins don’t feel confident in their ability to do so, it may make a decision that much easier. Of course, the Twins could choose to keep their homegrown players, both of whom were bright spots during a miserable 2024. Each has had their fair share of adversity, and has bounced back significantly. There are also arguments for even more upside for both. Larnach could further tap into his raw power, making him a monster at the plate if he can hold his strikeout gains. Wallner performed at an elite level, even with one of the worst strikeout rates among regulars last season. Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are both high-variance, left-handed corner outfielders who have made strides in the last year, though their futures are not without questions. Should the Twins cash in on one of them coming off a season in which their value may be at an all-time high? Should they let it ride and hope they can become core players in the heart of the lineup for years to come? Let us know below! View full article

In a vacuum, yes. Starting pitchers are more valuable than relief pitchers. If Jax were a high end starter, it would blow his value as a high end reliever out of the water. That being said, the odds of any pitcher switching from the bullpen and becoming a high end starter are not high regardless of examples we can cite. Id argue that if Jax made a switch and became a solid starting pitcher (which would be a great outcome), it would have less impact on this particular roster than if he remained a high end reliever.

Id argue the Twins absolutely have a choice here. Jax doesn't have them over a barrel, he's still under team control.

Seth Lugo had to wait until free agency and change teams to try starting again because moving him didn't work best for the Mets roster. That's how it goes in baseball sometimes, the players don't always get to play the position they want to if it doesn't fit into the teams plans. See Royce Lewis at second base.

There are tons of examples of guys making the transition successfully and Jax certainly could do it. In Lopez's specific case though, he blew out and wasn't available to the Braves down the stretch when they needed him most.

He's coming off a dominant 2024 season as the anchor of a shaky Twins bullpen. As the offseason ramps up, it sounds like Jax’s role could change. But does it make any sense for the Twins roster? Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports In an otherwise quiet offseason so far, a very impactful bit of Twins speculation dropped on Wednesday, leaving fans to wonder whether they’ll see Griffin Jax closing down games for the team in 2025. Does it make any sense for the team to change his role? While this isn’t exactly a commitment on the Twins' part to move Jax to the rotation, it is noteworthy, after Jax made it known that he wanted to have another shot at the starting rotation several times in 2024. It makes sense for him, as there’s more money to be found as a solid starting pitcher than even a high-leverage reliever. The Twins should be highly skeptical of how it benefits their roster to make this move, though. The Minnesota bullpen ranked 9th in the AL with a 4.12 ERA in 2024 and was a big reason for the team’s collapse down the stretch. There’s plenty to like about the returning names, but counting on players like Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, and even Jhoan Durán in 2025 seems like a much riskier bet after watching 2024 play out. While relief pitchers are volatile, Jax appears to be the safest bet of the current group after posting a 2.03 ERA in 71 innings. Moving Jax would leave an enormous hole in the back end of games, and this regime has given us enough evidence to assume they would not be bringing in another reliever of any consequence to bridge the gap. In regard to the rotation, the Twins' starting pitching is not as much in question, when it comes to high-end talent or depth. Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan are a formidable top three. Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack should have the inside track on the other two spots, assuming they’re both on the Opening Day roster. In addition to David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who debuted in 2024, the team has several exciting young arms expected to open the season in St. Paul, including Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and Andrew Morris. One could argue that the team should be looking to deal pieces away from this group, rather than pulling from other parts of the roster to reinforce it. When it comes to Jax’s desire to move back to the rotation, it’s hard to blame him. In addition to the financial incentives, he’s done a lot to warrant another opportunity. He posted a 6.37 ERA in his debut, as his two-pitch mix got crushed. In the three years since, he’s developed a repertoire that includes two different fastballs, two breaking balls, and an effective changeup. He has the tools to work through lineups multiple times, theoretically, and it’s easy to see why he would be confident in his ability to work through opposing lineups multiple times. He did force both lefties and righties to respect three or four possible pitch types, which is a key factor for a would-be starter. Unfortunately, it's not that simple after three years of pitching out of the bullpen. Jax’s assortment of pitches had strong indicators in metrics like Stuff+ and performed exceptionally well, but that was in short bursts where he could give 100% effort on every pitch. There were whispers that Jax preferred not to pitch more than a single inning at a time because of the intensity he summoned to execute that way. He only pitched more than one inning in five of his seventy-two appearances in 2024. He’s conditioned to pitch in short stints at this point. His stuff will decline as he’s stretched back out, and it’s impossible to say to what degree. His career high in innings pitched is 127, coming back in 2019. Injury must also be a concern if he were to build back up. In moving Jax to the starting rotation, the Twins would be making a significant gamble. In order to make up for the loss of Jax’s dominance in the bullpen, he would have to be a mid to high-end starting pitcher, especially considering that his innings will likely be limited. Given their current depth chart, the team simply wouldn’t benefit from a middling or back-end starting pitcher. Adding one to the current group would accomplish nothing other than blocking the young arms they already have. It would be hard to blame the Twins for respecting Jax’s wishes, but it’s hard to imagine taking one of the bright spots from a disastrous 2024 season and completely changing their role. There is a reality where Griffin Jax, the starting pitcher, pays off for the Twins, but given the need for him in the bullpen and the current state of the rotation, it seems like the Twins would be betting against the odds. Should the Twins give Jax a shot at the rotation? Should he remain the anchor of a currently questionable bullpen? Let us know below! View full article

The Twins have typically been slow to transition young pitchers into traditional relief roles. While the rationale is easy to follow, they need more bullpen help in 2025. They may have no choice but to be decisive with their young arms. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images The Twins are coming off a season in which their bullpen played a big part in a historic collapse. That bullpen has plenty of remaining question marks, including whether the team could part with a foundational member to improve the overall roster. With such a small needle to thread, the Twins may have to be more aggressive in transitioning young arms to the bullpen. That leaves the club in an interesting spot this offseason. The relief corps does not need a complete teardown, because even as-is, they're a talented unit headed into 2025. They could still use some help, though, and even if this front office valued relief pitchers at a high level (they do not), the payroll situation would prevent any significant additions. Financial restrictions could even result in a big name being traded away from this group. The bullpen will likely include many of the names from last season. While this group carries plenty of talent, we saw it completely implode as the worst-case scenarios played out repeatedly. We know there likely isn’t any external help coming, but the Twins should look to fortify their bullpen depth from within in 2025. Three standout candidates could do just that. Louie Varland The Twins kept Varland in the St. Paul rotation even while multiple other pitchers were ahead of him on the MLB depth chart, and the MLB bullpen struggled. In 2025, he should be a member of the Twins bullpen from day one. After multiple years of struggling as a starting pitcher, it’s time that the Twins let his plus raw stuff play up in a role where his mistake pitches are at least thrown with 100% effort. Varland’s tendency to leave balls over the plate could still be a problem in the bullpen, but the frequency at which he did so in the rotation led to too many untenable outings. We’ve seen his dominance for the short stretches the Twins have allowed him to be a traditional reliever. It’s time we see if Varland can be a high-end relief pitcher in 2025. Matt Canterino Injury struggles have overshadowed Matt Canterino’s complete dominance in his professional baseball career. He’s struck out over one-third of the opposing hitters he’s faced and posted a sub-2.00 ERA across all levels of the minor leagues, but this has been through just over 80 innings across three seasons. His health is currently in flux following a shoulder injury that ended his 2024 campaign, but as long as he’s in the organization, he’s a potential factor for the Twins because of his talent. The Twins have tried to bring Canterino back from multiple serious injuries as a starter, and it’s gone poorly every time. It’s possible that the 6-foot-2 right-hander’s arm would give him trouble regardless of his role, but it’s pretty clear at this point that asking him to throw multiple innings has not been successful. At 26 years old and already on the 40-man roster, Canterino is out of time to build up to a starter’s workload, and every inning thrown in the minor leagues seems like a waste. If he’s healthy in 2025, the Twins should fast-track him to the big-league bullpen and hope that a change in role can keep him on the field. Connor Prielipp Prielipp’s story is similar to Canterino’s, in that both have the raw potential that makes it difficult for the Twins to give up on them as starters. However, the injuries are becoming too much to stick to the plan. Prielipp has dominated whenever he’s been on the mound in recent years, but those occasions have been far too rare. In 2024, he threw just over 23 innings and was dominant from the left side. Prielipp should still be handled carefully, but one could argue it shouldn’t be as a starting pitcher. Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft, Prielipp has the kind of raw stuff to make the jump to MLB at some point in 2025, despite not having reached Double-A. While not as old as Canterino, Prielipp’s raw stuff is so compelling that it’s easy to dream of him dominating big-league hitters right now, rather than spending several years hoping he can build up a starter’s workload while using up bullets against minor-league hitters. It’s something the Twins have to at least consider in 2025. The Twins have rarely made significant external additions to the bullpen under Derek Falvey, and when they have, they’ve typically gone very poorly. Given the financial constraints this winter, it may be time to change how they handle some young pitching in their system. While the value comparison between a starting pitcher and a reliever is obvious, the Twins should be taking steps to ensure a 2024 bullpen meltdown doesn’t happen again in 2025. View full article

The former top-5 pick didn’t make much of an impact during his rookie season, but it was a solid debut. If his ceiling came down a bit, maybe we also saw his floor rise. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Austin Martin’s stats may not jump off the page, but the versatile rookie's returns were acceptable. He showed signs that while he may not be a future superstar, there’s a path for him to earn a role moving forward. A .670 OPS in 2024 leaves much to be desired, but in a down offensive year league-wide, this number came in just 6% below the league average. Martin showed much of what we expected, based on his minor-league career. His on-base skills were sufficient, but he showed little to no power. One fear regarding Martin’s profile on his way up to the MLB level was his ability to punish hittable pitches. This lack of power and reliance on walks has led many hitters with similar profiles to get the bat knocked out of their hands by fastballs. While Martin didn’t crush heaters, his numbers against them were solid. He also held his own against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, which didn’t leave any apparent holes for pitchers to exploit. Unlike many of his teammates, he's a multi-gear hitter. Martin showed his raw athleticism with seven stolen bases, which carries much more weight given the lack of speed elsewhere on the Twins roster. His ability to make plays on the bases will afford him at least a bit more opportunity on the MLB roster in the coming years, regardless of how his bat develops. Of course, Martin's biggest question moving forward will be his defense. The Twins likely played around too long by keeping Martin at shortstop throughout most of his minor league career when all indications were that they knew he was not an MLB-caliber shortstop. Even at second base, he was nothing more than an emergency option. Upon Martin’s deployment in the outfield, it became apparent that he had little experience or comfort there, either. Despite his athleticism, his debut on the grass was rough. His defense was a big reason he was a net negative for the team in measurements like FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement. He was worth -13 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield, as despite his physical ability to cover ground, we often saw poor reads and routes to fly balls. With so much time the team can count on needing to fill in center field every season, even Martin’s rookie season offensive production would make him a staple on the roster with average defense in center. Martin looked very much like an infielder thrust into outfield action, and hopefully, with continued reps and experience, significant improvements can be made. The raw ability is obvious. It’s easy for Martin’s rookie season to get lost in the shuffle, due to the up-and-down nature of his time on the team, but there are reasons to be encouraged. Putting up near-league-average production as a rookie isn’t a given, regardless of the player’s pedigree. Look no further than fellow rookie Brooks Lee, who posted a punchless .585 OPS during his rookie season. While Martin never stuck on the roster for an extended period and was disappointing defensively, he has a straightforward path to being a catalytic role player on the 2025 roster. The hope is that Martin has done enough to keep the Twins from bringing in a 2025 version of Manuel Margot, after (hopefully) figuring out that Martin could have filled that role better. His ability to be optioned will continue to make him somewhat expandable, but given the payroll restraints, he may be the first to get a crack at this job next season. Martin didn't quite impress, but he showed plenty of reason to hope for more from him in the coming years. Is there hope for Austin Martin to fill a platoon role in 2025? Can he earn an even more significant role? Let us know below! View full article

Among the many disappointments of the 2024 season was the Twins bullpen, one of the worst in baseball for the last month-plus of the season. Headed into 2025, they have three big question marks. Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images The Twins bullpen was largely ineffective in 2024 despite Griffin Jax being one of the best relievers in baseball and Cole Sands having a breakout season. Just about everything else went wrong, leaving them with several big questions heading into 2025. What’s Up With Durán? Jhoan Durán had the worst season of his MLB career so far in 2024, which is to say he was merely human instead of being one of the absolut ebest relievers in baseball. He lost over an entire MPH from his fastball, and his strikeout rate dropped from 32.9% to 28.9%. While still a good reliever, Durán was far from his dominant self, and a Twins bullpen that was supposed to be anchored by the 6’5" right-hander felt like it was missing its number-one option for the entire season. Durán suffered an oblique injury at the beginning of the season and never quite got back to his dominant ways. The hope is that this injury cost him some of his premium velocity and can be found again in 2025. The question is whether the Twins feel like betting on this development. After reportedly listening to trade offers for Durán last trade deadline, they could be overwhelmed with an offer this winter if teams are willing to pay peak price. With a Twins front office that does not value relief pitching, it’s worth not only wondering whether Durán will regain his pre-2024 form but also whether he’ll be in the Twins bullpen at all. Can Brock Stewart Contribute Enough? Stewart has become an essential piece of the Twins bullpen over the last two seasons, but the Twins have had to play large chunks of both years without him. More recently, Stewart was shut down with what was described as minor shoulder discomfort, requiring season-ending shoulder surgery a couple of months later. This came just one year after he missed most of the second half of 2023, though he did return at season’s end from that injury. 2025 will be Stewart’s age 33 season. After the bullpen completely ran out of gas in 2024, the goal will be to avoid it happening again in 2025. Brock Stewart will be a huge X factor in this decision-making process. While we feel safe projecting elite production when Stewart is on the mound, the Twins can’t have any confidence in his ability to be available for the entire season. Look for the Twins to try to bolster the bullpen depth in some way, but how much Stewart is available in 2025 carries a lot of weight in how the bullpen performs. Can Louie Varland Meet The Hype? The Twins' hopes of Varland sticking in the rotation should be gone headed into 2025. Between the large sample of data showing Varland isn’t effective in this role and the wealth of young starting pitching they’ll have available, it’s time to fully transition to the bullpen. The Twins have seen flashes of an elite reliever from Varland across the last two seasons, and in 2025 they should be leaning into making him a consistent contributor at the back end of games. With Varland’s raw stuff, there’s no reason he shouldn’t succeed in a shorter role, but it doesn't feel easy to say. Despite averaging 95+ on his fastball with multiple off-speed pitches to go with it, Varland owns a career ERA of over 5.50, and he hasn’t been able to strike out a batter per inning. For how talented Varland is, he’s lacked the ability to finish hitters and has been prone to game-breaking implosions. Undoubtedly, he has the raw talent to be a high-end relief pitcher; the question is whether he can harness it to meet the potential he’s shown in shorter stints. When a bullpen implodes as spectacularly as the Twins’ did this season, plenty of questions arise headed into the offseason. These three pitchers carry significant weight in how the Twins bullpen will perform next season. Can this trio help pick up the pieces and put them back together in 2025? View full article