Cody Pirkl

All was lost on multiple occasions this offseason as the Twins appeared to wait out the Carlos Correa sweepstakes to the point that the rest of the free agent market was bare. Two deals miraculously failed in order to deliver Correa back to Minnesota, with many worrying about a sketchy physical on his ankle that could become a problem. Health could still be a long-term concern, but the Twins have bigger issues present day. Considering his career, Correa is the type of hitter that you pencil into the top four of a lineup daily. Correa's previous track record was a draw for the Twins, who needed another star player to pair with Byron Buxton and help soften the blow of his inevitable missed time. So far in 2023, Correa's reputation as a top-of-the-lineup hitter has cost the Twins dearly. It's no secret that Correa has been a massive disappointment. He remains a below-league-average hitter as we near the halfway point, showing no consistency at the plate and often appearing to be completely guessing on the next pitch he'll see. It's hard even to call him streaky, as he's rarely even put together consecutive games of contributing to the offense in any fashion whatsoever. Multiple times he's taken one big swing to revive hope that he had awakened from his season-long slumber, only to return to his rally-killing ways. And therein lies a massive problem with the Twins' offense. A struggling hitter is a struggling hitter, and it's primarily a bummer when said struggling hitter is the recent recipient of the largest contract in Twins' history. The problem is that Correa's struggles come in the biggest spots because of where he hits in the lineup. Too often, the Twins have lined up a rally for the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th spot in the order that Correa is occupying, only for him to come up empty. There are multiple pieces of evidence showing just how damaging he's been. For starters, Correa leads the American League in double plays grounded into. That is a brutal stat for a player to have in the middle of the lineup. Not only is he struggling with runners on in general, but he also has a .606 OPS with runners in scoring position. As disappointing as he's been overall with a .695 OPS, Carlos Correa has dipped even lower when it matters most. This poor performance is all captured in his team-worst Win Probability Added. The Twins don’t get many rallies going, but when they do and they fall on Carlos Correa, they’re often snuffed out in short order. It all may be a result of randomness, but Correa’s struggles come with bright red flags in 2023. As Correa nears just 29 years of age, he appears to have declined in a way you’d expect from a hitter in their mid-30s. He’s hitting .183 against fastballs with his worst expected stats against heaters of his entire career. His whiff rate on fastballs is his worst since 2016. It’s likely a big reason he’s barely managing a .700 OPS when ahead in the count. Hopefully it’s a problem with approach rather than a decline in bat speed. Either way, it’s too easy for opposing pitchers to simply throw fastballs and get Correa out so far in 2023. It's becoming more and more evident that organization-wide issues are at play when it comes to the Twins' offense. Throw a dart at the lineup card, and you'll likely hit a player underperforming. That said, Carlos Correa is the biggest potential game-changer in the offense, and he's often changed the game in the opposition's favor in 2023. Carlos Correa has to find some consistency, or the rest of the offensive issues don't matter.

Royce Lewis has put on quite the display of clutch hitting in a Twins lineup that needs saving seemingly on a nightly basis. His handful of monumental moments have been impressive, and in some cases, have single-handedly won the Twins games. Those moments have likely covered up a number of red flags in his body of work thus far in many fans' eyes, and it’s fair to wonder whether those red flags should be addressed on the MLB roster rather than St. Paul. On the season, Lewis has slashed a respectable .281/.305/.404 (.709). His saving grace thus far on his total slash line was a stretch of what some would call batted ball luck, hitting safely in seven consecutive at-bats at one point. He’s walked just twice thus far, swinging at over half of the pitches he sees. Lewis has swung at 40% of pitches he’s seen outside of the zone. Alex Kirilloff has swung at just 27% of such pitches for reference. In addition, Lewis has struck out over one-third of the time and has a 36.4% whiff rate against fastballs. He’s being overly aggressive and has struggled to even make contact against heaters. A few weeks ago, it would have been easy to say “it is what it is” and allow him to continue trying to work through it. It was hard to expect him to be at the top of his game after missing so much time. Jose Miranda has heated up considerably recently, however. There are a few factors that come into play here. For starters, Jose Miranda has previously shown the ability to hit in the majors. Clearly, something was broken, as his poor production followed him into Triple-A after he was demoted. While it was always possible Lewis could simply play so well that Miranda’s production was a non-factor, Lewis hasn’t held up his side of the bargain with what is currently a below-league-average slash line. With Miranda appearing to be trending back up, it may be time to give him another shot at contributing. Just a few months ago, he was relied upon to be a middle-of-the-order contributor. More importantly, the long-term production of Royce Lewis has to be taken into account. This isn’t a Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner situation where it can be argued that their struggles can’t be solved in Triple-A. Lewis currently has a flawed approach and is getting overpowered by major-league fastballs. It’s also an issue he had during his rehab assignment in St. Paul where he posted a 1.099 OPS. It’s exactly what you’d expect to see from a player who has missed so much time recently, but it’s also one that may be better solved against less dominant pitching. Lewis was promoted out of necessity. Jose Miranda had fallen apart and the Twins lineup was in need of any spark it could get. Despite the impact Lewis has had on a handful of games, the goal should be to get him to that level more consistently, as he hasn’t been the consistent contributor the Twins had hoped for as a whole. Miranda’s difficult stretch to begin 2023 also doesn’t eliminate the possibility of him returning to form as a plus hitter in an MLB offense. In a straight-up swap, the Twins can get Miranda, who was once expected to be a major contributor another opportunity while setting Lewis up for success in the long term rather than risking him falling too far into bad habits as he tries to keep his head above water in the majors. Should the Twins consider it?

Bailey Ober has never topped the 108 1/3 innings he threw in 2021 throughout his six professional seasons. His 2021 total looked like he had finally built up a foundation to build on in future years, but then injuries hit again in 2022. Having already surpassed last season's innings total in 2023, what may the future hold for Bailey Ober? Ober was a point of discussion in spring training due to the assumption that he was slated to begin the season in St. Paul. He had more than proven that he was a viable MLB starting pitcher, but his time missed across his career forced the Twins to overload on pitching to insure themselves, and Ober was the odd man out having the ability to be optioned. It turned out not to be a major issue, as Ober made only four starts before getting the call and has little to no chance of being sent back down again. The innings count is becoming an interesting storyline. To reach even 130 innings, Ober would need to more than double the number of innings he threw in 2022. With such a drastic increase in workload comes the risk of injury and fatigue, even without considering his already colorful injury history. In such a scenario, some teams would aggressively pull back on innings counts, especially for a pitcher who has barely topped 100 innings in any professional season. It’s difficult to envision the Twins being too aggressive with this as the season goes on, as for 27-year-old Bailey Ober, it’s getting to be time to stop setting him up for the future. They may just see what he can do if he can stay on the field. That being said, there are a few things the Twins will likely do to combat the rising innings count. It sounds like Saturday Brent Headrick may get the call for a spot start against Detroit to push the rotation back a day. While Simeon Woods Richardson has floundered in St. Paul, Headrick has established himself as a legitimate rotation option despite not being a high-pedigree prospect. The Twins have also promoted the resurgent Blayne Enlow to Triple-A, and a few good starts will likely also get him on the shortlist if the Twins need a spot start. With options emerging, the Twins will likely continue to mix these arms in to afford extra rest for the starters they’ll be leaning on down the stretch. The Twins also have an opportunity to set themselves up to coast to the finish line. While the concept sounds ridiculous given how utterly the team has failed to separate themselves from a terrible AL Central, they haven’t missed their only chance. They have the weakest remaining strength of schedule in baseball, and due to the sub .500 records of all of their division rivals, it may only take a slight push for Cleveland and Chicago to go into a fire sale at the deadline. If they can create some padding, names like Headrick may wind up doing more than just pushing the rotation back a day. If the Twins want to limit Ober’s innings to an extent and they have a sizeable lead, they could place him on the IL to skip a few starts and reset the workload a bit while capable young arms get their opportunity. With how far the Twins have pushed the rotation and started doing things like using Duran for multiple innings, this would be the best-case scenario. The hope is that Ober can hold up in the meantime and is still an effective pitcher come August and September. The 6’9 right-hander has performed close to a front-end starting pitcher for the last two seasons, and while the idea of letting him continue to roll is enticing, it would be ideal to limit him as much as possible down the stretch. Are you concerned about Bailey Ober’s workload?

Jorge Polanco has dealt with a fair amount of lower body injuries in his career. After knee issues ended his 2022 season, Polanco got off to a late start to 2023 before hamstring issues sidelined him. With the same issue landing him on the IL again, this recent injury is likely to keep him down for a solid stretch. While disappointing for Polanco and the Twins, Edouard Julien is the recipient of a massive opportunity to show why the Twins are such big fans. Julien has been an on-base machine throughout his minor league career. Though he did have his fair share of whiffs, he had been able to limit the punch outs to under 25% of his plate appearances in his last two minor league seasons while approaching a near 20% walk rate. As could be expected, neither has translated directly to his MLB debut, with a walk rate of around 11% and a bloated 34.6% K rate. It’s fair to say Julien hasn’t quite hit his stride yet, especially when it comes to controlling the strike zone. That becomes a scary thought considering the rookie is already slashing .260/.353/.493, good for 35% above league average. For a hitter with such an advanced plate approach, one may expect him to adjust quickly, and that’s exactly what Julien has done. While continuing to flash his power at the plate, the former 18th-round pick from Auburn via Quebec has continued to improve month over month in his sporadic MLB debut season. In addition to the increase in walk rate, Julien reduced his whiff % from 44.2 to 38.7 from April to May, and has only swung and missed about 15% of the time in his two games since being recalled. They’re all small samples, but signs of adjustment nonetheless. Aside from plate discipline, Julien has some other questions to answer while Polanco is away. For starters, Julien has yet to prove much against left-handed pitching. It may be a lack of opportunity, as the Twins have only allowed him to take seven plate appearances against southpaws and will likely continue to platoon him to some degree. He’ll still likely get the occasional lefty-on-lefty matchup, and if he can capitalize on a few opportunities, it’s possible he opens the Twins’ eyes to him being a capable everyday player. For as well as Julien is expected to hit right-handed pitchers, even holding his own against lefties would take his already can’t-miss bat to an entirely different level. The biggest question, of course, is the defense. For how athletic Edouard Julien clearly is, reports have had him stretched as a second baseman, and early results in the MLB have so far matched up. In just 140 innings at second base, Julien has been worth -3 Defensive Runs Saved. Outs Above Average grades him at -3 as well in his limited time in the field. His defensive struggles have been apparent on the most superficial levels, as despite just one official error, he’s had a handful of awkward-looking plays. Julien is presented with an opportunity. Jorge Polanco’s contract for 2024 has already vested for $10.5m, but the Twins have a $1m buyout. Make no mistake, that’s an absolute bargain for a player at Polanco’s skill level. That being said, the injuries could be on the verge of spinning out of control. Julien could put some thoughts in the front offices’ heads about his future on the club beyond 2023 if the bat continues to play, and the defense is even passable. Polanco seems like a near-impossible hole to fill, but in the business of baseball, young, effective, cost-controlled players can push front offices into some difficult decisions. In the near term, the Twins are missing one of the more underrated pieces of their lineup as they have been for much of the season. The hope is that Julien proves to be the leadoff hitter this lineup has missed all year, and that when and if Polanco is ready to return, Julien has done enough to make it more than just a procedural move to send him back to St. Paul. We’ve heard about Edouard Julien for some time, and he finally has an extended opportunity to show what he can do. Can he be part of the solution in what has been a frustrating Twins lineup, or will we be counting down the days until Jorge Polanco’s return?

One can expect variation from year to year regarding things like walk and strikeout rates as teams cycle out old personnel and bring in new players. What has happened to the 2023 Twins, however, isn’t normal. Going from an above-league-average team at avoiding strikeouts to being on pace for the most strikeouts in history doesn’t just happen by signing Joey Gallo. The evidence is throughout the lineup. As things currently stand, six semi-regulars in the lineup would have the worst career strikeout rates if the season ended today. Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Donovan Solano, Christian Vázquez, and Willi Castro are all on this list. Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer are having their worst strikeout seasons since 2019. Looking at some newcomers, Farmer, Vázquez, Castro, and Taylor have all come from different organizations and have seen their strikeout rates explode with the Twins. Kind of odd that there would be so many cases of this in addition to the holdovers who are also whiffing more than ever. It’s fair to note that many of these names aren’t qualified hitters and it’s still plenty possible that their strikeouts normalize over the rest of the season, but it’s still odd. So what could be going on? Coincidence What are the odds that so many players would be having their worst seasons by K rate or in some cases, their worst in 3+ years by pure chance? It’s hard to say exactly, but it’s likely pretty low. Still, it has to be said that baseball is weird and random. Maybe the Twins are the recipients of this round of wrath from the baseball gods. Each of these players could have completely separate issues they must work through. Who’s to say? Scouting A big part of today’s game is scouting and preparation. What does this pitcher throw, and when do they throw it? Where do they like to throw their fastball compared to their breaking ball? Is there a slight difference in a release point that can give the hitter a small edge? These are all things that lineups prepare for everyday pre-game and have become a necessity. We’re not mind readers and have no idea what goes on pregame, but it's hard to say who does if the Twins don’t look like an unprepared offensive team. It seems like night after night an opposing pitcher is setting a career high in strikeouts. They’ve faced off against starters with predictable plans of attack such as Michael Kopech sitting above the zone with the fastball, and look completely surprised over and over again as they chase. While Domingo German was skirting the line of using a foreign substance in New York, it was disheartening to hear the broadcast discuss his well-known changeup as a go-to pitch and watch the lineup react as though they didn’t even know it was in his repertoire. It’s possible the Twins' preparation leaves them either underprepared for the challenge on a given night, or that it just doesn’t work for everybody as reported by Dan Hayes of the Athletic this week: We may find out more in this regard as personnel decisions are made amidst the struggles, and it’s something to keep an eye on as players appear to be losing faith in the process. Organizational Philosophy Every organization preaches some kind of hitting philosophy. Sometimes it’s obvious such as the Royals or Guardians focusing on contact no matter how poor the quality. It’s fair to wonder if the Twins are on the complete opposite side of that spectrum. With a handful of new faces coming over and seeing such notable increases in strikeout rate, it makes one wonder whether they showed up to camp and were tasked with changing their approach. In plenty of cases, an increase in whiffs could be attributed to aging such as with Vázquez, who has also seen a decline in barrels. It’s not a theory that’s supported across the board, but one to consider as both new and old players continue down their strikeout-riddled path. With Derek Falvey recently noting that he "expected the Twins to be a top-10 team in strikeouts", but is surprised by being #1, it makes you think. Could this have been an organizational shift gone horribly wrong? The unfortunate truth is that publicly we’ll never know for sure. It could be one of the aforementioned theories, a mixture of the three, or another issue not previously considered at all. The bottom line is that what the Twins are doing right now isn’t working. Even in the AL Central, it can be argued that you can’t make the playoffs while only showing up offensively 1-3 days per week. The boom-bust nature of the lineup has trended far too deep into the trenches of “bust”, and it’s becoming clear that the Twins' offense has crossed the line that no pitching staff can pull them back from. With roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, the Twins are in the unenviable position of needing to make a sweeping change in approach across an entire lineup. They’re not one bat away, and they’re not missing any saviors on the IL with Gallo and Buxton being the poster children for what has been a fatally inconsistent lineup. Can they make an adjustment?

Brock Stewart has been a pleasant surprise. After dominating in St. Paul for just under nine innings, the right-hander got the call to the big leagues for the first time since 2019 and hasn’t missed a beat. He’s overcome an unsightly 15.5% BB rate with his 28.2% K rate in order to post a 1.06 ERA. He would have been a nice supporting piece to an already quality bullpen, but instead, he’s been a big reason it’s stayed afloat. It’s safe to say the Twins bullpen has not shaken out in the way they intended. After making no additions this offseason, things could be going worse, but they haven’t quite been up to the task of supporting what has been a stagnant offense. With little margin for error, 2022 breakout Griffin Jax has allowed a barrage of blown leads. Jorge Alcala has not rebounded from elbow surgery. Caleb Thielbar has missed time with injury. 2022 trade deadline acquisition Jorge Lopez has somehow been even more of a liability than he was down the stretch in 2022. All of this has led to Brock Stewart becoming an invaluable piece of the Twins late-game formula, as evidenced by his Win Probability Added being second-best in the bullpen. The Twins deserve credit for seeking out Stewart on a minor-league deal a year ago to rehab under their watch, but they’re fortunate that it’s turned out so well that Stewart has been one of their go-to relievers in 2023. Beyond the context of what Stewart has meant to this bullpen, his development is a major credit to him. A former top starting pitch prospect, he’s completely reinvented himself at the age of 31 after a career of struggles and injury. Stewart’s average fastball during his last MLB action was a modest 91.7. It currently sits at 97.2. In addition to the heater, Stewart has a five-pitch mix including a sinker, sweeper, cutter and changeup, all of which are inducing whiffs at a rate of over 35%. He has an entire arsenal of weapons. All of this to say, the Twins are fortunate to have Brock Stewart on call. There was little fanfare coming into the season, and he’s taken an opportunity and run with it. There’s no telling what the future holds for Stewart at 31, but the right-hander isn’t even arbitration eligible until 2025 so long as he can keep the magic going. Like they’ve done in the past, it appears the Twins have found a diamond in the rough. It’s hard to say where they’d be without Brock Stewart.

Christian Vázquez was a plus defender in 2022 and around league average hitter, making him one of the premier catchers on the market. It was enough for the Twins to outbid other interested teams in uncharacteristic fashion. Between the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, Vázquez’s bat in particular looks to be headed in the wrong direction. Is it worth worrying about? Vázquez had an all-around solid 2022 season, albeit with a rough ending. The Red Sox-turned-Astros backstop was traded at the deadline and struggled down the stretch, posting a .470 OPS in September. It’s a trend you’ll sometimes see from a catcher as they wear down late in the season, and often is tough to avoid. Vázquez’s struggles have carried into 2023 as we’ve reached a third of the way through. The Twins backstop has posted a sub .600 OPS so far at age 32, and he’s showing signs that his age is catching up to him at the plate. The most obvious issue is that Vázquez has yet to collect a barrel at the plate. By definition, a barrel is categorized as a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph struck at a launch angle of 26-30 degrees. For every tick above 98 mph, the launch angle expands to meet the definition of a barrel. Thus far, Vázquez has an average exit velocity of 86.3 mph. His launch angle is 10.4 degrees. Both are his worst since 2017. Vázquez has a reputation of being a hitter that puts the ball in play for better or worse, rarely walking or striking out. So far, his 24.1% K rate is up from any other season in his career. Digging deeper into his K rate is an even more worrisome trend. Vázquez has whiffed more against offspeed pitches and breaking balls, but he’s also posting a career-worst whiff rate against fastballs at 23.6% after doing so 15.1% of the time last season and 11.7% of the time in 2021. Vázquez is undeniably trending in the wrong direction when it comes to catching up to fastballs. Vázquez is still by all accounts a great defender behind the plate despite a few errors early in the season. That being said, this isn’t what the Twins signed up for. With a 71 wRC+, Vázquez has been a zero in the Twins' inconsistent lineup. Catchers are almost always defense-first players and often provide no offensive value at all. The Twins had their choice of several such catchers this winter if they chose to go that route, but decided to pick out Vázquez due to his ability to provide a bit more. So far he has not. Hopefully, this is just some sort of slump for Vázquez in the early going, but anytime a 32-year-old catcher loses all power and starts slipping against fastballs, red flags go up. The catching position endures so much wear and tear that players at the position can fall off quickly. There’s a lot of time and money left on the contract, and while Vázquez has been as advertised behind the plate, the Twins would leave a good bit of value on the table over the length of the deal if this is the offense he provides. Luckily they have Ryan Jeffers to hopefully pick up the slack if need be, but the beginning of Vázquez’s Twins career is disappointing. Can he turn it around?