miracleb

MIB trade Rumors is reporting (from Betsy Helfand ) that Keirsey and Gaspar made the team to open 2025.  They also speculate that locks in Julien on the team. Martin is being sent to St. Paul. Good decisions in my view. I hope all three get enough playing time while Lee and Lewis are out so we can make an intelligent decision as to who to send down when the time comes. 

If there is NOT interest in Dom Smith on the Twins part, there SHOULD be.
With Lewis to start the season on the IL, this means Brooks Lee will... oops maybe not... I mean Miranda will most likely start out at 3B.
Our injury history shows we will need depth.
Hopefully Lewis can overcome the latest lower body injury miss little time and play at a high level the rest of the year. Broosk Lee has a known chronic back issue, an dhas missed time every year because of it. He should be used primarily as trade bait. hopefully he can get healthy, put up numbers to boost his trade value, but either way he is out again. for how long who knows.
Mickey Gasper apparently went out with a potential significant injury. just the THOUGHT of Gasper would be uttered in a sentence when talking about legitimate Twins plans is scary.  But he has had a good spring. If Gasper is out an extended period, then his 40 man spot should be used for another player.
Dom Smith is suddenly a very solid addition. He has experience in the OF, and while yet another LH OF seems overly redundant, Dom also has value at 1B, where he is an above average defender. HE would be a great platoon player with Ty France. Who else woudl play 1B with righties on the mound?  Julien??  Castro?? The Twins could get him on the cheap after he opted out of his minor league deal in New York with a strong Spring.
I am not hoping for a significant injury to Gasper, but if there is the best move the Twins can make is to sign Dom Smith.
 

... and why is he on the 40 man roster over Kala'i Rosario?
Granted Rosario is by no means a cant miss prospect, and there is a possibility that he will not be claimed in the Rule 5 draft,  Why the heck do you send him to AFL  and then not protect him?
With no disrespect to Helman...
Helman is 28 tears old,  will not crack opening day roster when we have Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, and even Austin Martin? and if you believe reports of us being linked to Tyler Oniel there is no immediate need, and at 28 he is not the future.  By mid year Emmanual Rodriguez coudl be ready, and by next year Walker Jenkins, again confirming there is not a need for a 28 year old as part of the future.
And again while being drafted in Rule 5 is no guarantee, after playing in 67 games at AA last year, and in the AFL the last 2 years he is definitley in the window of possibility!!  and we risk that for Helman?

As has been mentioned in previous posts, the Marlins desperately want... NEED... to move salary. The only thing that had prevented the Marlins from selling off pitching prior to the start f the season was the fact that they made the playoffs last year. How would that look? dismantling the strength of a team on the heels of a playoff appearance? It was abundantly clear that with the Braves being the Braves, and Philly improving, that at best Miami was a third place team and most likely out of the playoff chase.
Early on I figured about 1 month the front office would realize they are not a playoff team. Could this realization come after just 8 games???  Starting 0-8 should help clarify their true standing this year.
The Twins should be in position just 6 games into the season to make a big move.
Call up Miami, NOW, find out what it would take to get both Jesus Luzardo and Alcantara.
Luzardo immediately upgrades our rotation this year, and the pairing of Luzardo and Alcantara next year with Pablo, Ryan, and that leaves pitchers like Ober and Paddack as #5 starters.
While this move is 100% focused on improving our roster this year, it sets us up incredibly well next year and beyond.
With both pitchers on board next year the Twins would have the following potential starters under team control...
Alcantara through 2027
Luzardo  through 2026
Pablo through 2027
Ryan through 2027
Ober through2027
Paddack  just through next year
that's a solid 6 deep And we haven't even spoken about the young arms who should be ready to fill in gaps such as...
Varland, Festa, Raya, Soto,  and others
So what would it take? and would it be worth it?  It will take some top tier talent for sure. If Lewis had not been injured... AGAIN, I would suggest it would be worth moving Lee. Now he has even more long term value for Twins if Lewis is Buxton Jr.
How about Emmanual Rodriguez to headline a deal? If Jenkins can stay in CF long term, then that makes Rodriguez a bit more expendable.  would a package of either Rodriguez or Gonzalez, along with something like Danny De Andrade, Yunior Severino, and a top 20 Twins pitching prospect get a deal done?
If not what should the Twins give up for that pair of starters If...WHEN Miami makes them available?

There's an article on ESPN ranking all the MLB farm system by "empirical surplus dollar value", whatever that is. The Twins are ranked as #9. That's a little bit higher than I would have expected and the ranking does not appear to include the Seattle prospect we just got in the Polanco trade, at least he is not mentioned. They do mention Lee, Martin, Festa, Canterino, and Cory Lewis as guys at upper levels who could make an impact this year or next, and Rodriguez and Raya as guys who could make an impact in the second half of 2024. I thought you guys might find this interesting. Here's the link:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39437646/top-30-mlb-farm-systems-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-cubs-orioles-tigers-padres
it is behind the ESPN+ pay wall so I apologize if not everyone can access this. It will eventually get to the regular site. I get access to this because of the Disney Plus subscription my wife made us get to give my grandson something to watch when he comes over.

I have speculated that if the Twins acquire a starting pitcher, he won’t clearly be seen as a top 50 or 60 starter. I would think the guy will be either unproven, an injury risk or coming off a disappointing or unproductive season. Further, I think most teams are placing a high price on pitching, particularly guys under team control.
Teams that have no real hope of contending should be a little more willing to part with starters under team control because by the time they expect to contend, guys in the majors will have moved on. In addition, bad teams might have pitchers whose stats look worse because they are playing for a bad team. Maybe a bad bullpen allowing lots of inherited runners to score, perhaps bad defense behind him or instances where the manager had no choice but to let a team put up crooked numbers because there was nobody available in the bullpen.
There were four 100-loss teams in 2023. Two of them were in the AL Central and thus would be unlikely to deal with the Twins. The other two teams are Oakland and Colorado. In exploring the pitching staffs for those two teams, my first thought was ugh!, there just isn't anything there. However, in looking a little deeper, I found one guy from each staff to consider. From Colorado, Austin Gomber was 29 last year and pitched 139 innings, he is a lefty, something I think the Twins would like to have in their rotation. In looking at Gomber's home-road splits, he compiled a 3.68 ERA on the road, away from Coors Field. I don't know anything about his injury history, but acquiring the road Austin Gomber for prospects might be something to consider. It appears that Coors messes with a lot of pitchers' heads and adjustments made in the high altitude diminish effectiveness when the pitcher is at a normal altitude. 
From Oakland, I nominate JP Sears. Similar to Gomber, he is a lefty in his late 20s. He worked over 170 innings last year and while his numbers weren't good overall, he seems to have worn down over the course of the year and perhaps the wearing down was exacerbated by being on a terrible team. His first half ERA was 3.97 with a 1.044 WHIP. and over 8 Ks per nine innings pitched. The walks and hits soared in the second half, so I will speculate he did wear out. He's not a big guy--5'11"180 lbs.--and this was his first full year of the major leagues. Also, I have to suspect that his manager was forced to work him longer in games because of the rest of the pitching staff being pretty awful. The coming season might allow Sears to handle additional work better and the Twins probably would be better suited to conserve his innings pitched. 
I know very little about either pitcher mentioned other than a quick look at BBRef. For all I know, either or both could already be scheduled for major surgery, but I do think looking for an undervalued asset on a bad team is one way to get value. 

It's that time of year, and the Minnesota Twins will soon be fully engaged with spring training activities down in Sunny Fort Myers, Florida. Before the season kicks off though, and with prospect positioning set to move, I needed to put out my updated top 15 prospects for the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
The highest ranked player on the 2023 list, Royce Lewis, has since graduated and he took a couple of players with him. Both Matt Wallner and Louie Varland are no longer prospect eligible, and Edouard Julien joined them in becoming a regular for Rocco Baldelli's squad. It should be expected that a few of these names will move on by the time the dust settles on 2024, and that would be a good outcome in terms of development.
I have been posting my top 15 prospect lists here since 2016, and you can find each of them below:
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects
2023 Top 15 Prospects
Now to get into the 2024 list:
15. Yunior Severino INF
Signed when the Atlanta Braves were made to forfeit players from an international signing class that they cheated to acquired, Severino has become the darling of that group. He emerged to the highest level of the farm for Minnesota last year and showed thump that could have him as a valuable first base type. There's a lot of swing and miss, but he's now on the 40-man roster and has a clear path to a debut.
14. Matt Canterino RHP
No one has bounced around more on these prospect lists for me over the years than Canterino. Drafted out of Rice, he underwent Tommy John surgery and has dealt with arm issues as many of their pitchers do. Fully healthy, he could be an absolute weapon for Minnesota in relief this year. His stuff is impressive, and should play up even more as a reliever.
13. C.J. Culpepper RHP
A 13th round pick in 2022, Culpepper reached High-A Cedar Rapids in his first full professional season. The 3.56 ERA across 86 innings was impressive, and he owned a 9.3 K/9. There's still plenty of development to take place here, but a late round arm that works in the vein of Bailey Ober or Louie Varland is something to dream on.
12. Kala'i Rosario OF
Sent to the Arizona Fall League after the season, Rosario got in extra reps and showed out with the power. He flashed some exciting potential during big league spring training action prior to the 2023 season, and his solid year at High-A should have him ready for the Double-A challenge this season at just 21 years old.
11. Luke Keaschall INF
Minnesota took Keaschall in the second round of the 2023 Major League Baseball draft out of Arizona State and he immediately took to pro ball. He posted an .892 OPS in 31 games, and helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels secure a championship at the end of the season. He probably starts in Iowa, but could make his way to Double-A Wichita quickly.
10. Tanner Schobel INF
The Virginia Tech product tore up High-A Cedar Rapids in 2023 and earned a promotion to Double-A. He struggled out of the gate for Wichita, but did bat .294 over his final 14 games. He'll need to tap back into some of the power potential that was left in Cedar Rapids, but there's the makings of a big league regular here.
9. Charlee Soto RHP
The Twins took Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft and he didn't pitch at all last season. Looking to build up his body and prepare for pro ball, 2024 should be a fun debut season. There is an upper-90's fastball in the arsenal, and while he's a high school arm, there is a lot to work with here.
8. Brandon Winokur OF
A tools'd out high school kid taken in the third round of the 2023 draft, Winokur impressed in limited action last year. He posted an .884 OPS across 17 games at the rookie ball level, and he showed off the power and speed combination. The plate discipline is something to watch as he develops, but the ceiling for him is immense.
7. Cory Lewis RHP
Drafted just inside of the first ten rounds during 2022, Lewis has emerged as one of Minnesota's best pitching prospects. He throws a knuckle ball but isn't a knuckleballer. With dominant stuff that led to a 10.5 K/9 in his first pro season, Lewis could start at Double-A in 2024 and may be a late season option for the Twins to consider.
6. Austin Martin INF/OF
Similar to Canterino, Martin has bounced around on my prospect lists. He got back to a workable swing last year, and while the power potential isn't there, he has solid bat to ball skills and has a good contact ability. Speed is the play here, and while exit velocities could limit his overall production, he already profiles as a plus defender in center field.
5. David Festa RHP
Taken in the 13th round of the 2021 draft, Festa represented the Twins at the 2023 Futures Game. He made his way to Triple-A St. Paul and is right there among the best pitching prospects in the organization. Festa can push velocity while also showing a strong command of his pitches. He had 119 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings last season. Expect to see him at Target Field in 2024.
4. Marco Raya RHP
If Festa isn't the best pitching prospect in the organization, then it is Raya. Just 20 years old and a former prep arm, the Twins already have him at Double-A. He took his lumps for Wichita, but was incredibly young for the level and should be expected to use that experience for significant offseason development. He'll begin 2024 with the Wind Surge again, but getting to Triple-A St. Paul at 21 would be eye-opening.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF
One of the most exciting prospects across baseball, Rodriguez has significant power potential and his ceiling is that of a slugging corner outfielder with all-star aspirations. He posted a ridiculous .400 OBP for Cedar Rapids last year despite batting just .240, and he doesn't sacrifice plate discipline for power. A meteoric rise could happen this year at 21, but Rodriguez's future is still one to be excited about even if it takes a bit more time.
2. Brooks Lee INF
Maybe the safest bet to be a big league regular for a long time across all organizations in baseball, Lee is near major league ready at this point. He's going to hit for more average than power, and can play shortstop but doesn't necessarily need to. He does everything well, and if any of the tools take another step forward, he'll end his career with more than a few all-star selections under his belt.
1. Walker Jenkins OF
The fifth overall pick from the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft, Jenkins is a superstar in every sense of the word. He may outgrow centerfield as his body develops, but he should hit for average and power while remaining a strong defender and runner. The maturity here is off the charts, and the abilities could push him into future MVP discussions. A 2024 debut isn't going to happen, but all bets should be off in 2025.
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I know everyone is starting to get a bit nervous, given the Twins' lack of activity this offseason. The season ended a month+ ago now, but I still feel it right to look over what I think the Twins should target this offseason. I'm gonna preface this by saying these are all ideas I think are realistic. I'm taking at face-value Falvey's comments on the TV-deal situation, and the idea that cutting costs is a goal (as much as us fans may disagree with it), thus most of these ideas are involve cheaper options or cutting money to spend it elsewhere.
1. Starting pitching help
This has to be the top priority of the FO going into the season. I agree with not resigning Gray and Maeda at the costs they went for, but it opens up holes that need to be filled. Right now we know the rotation projects to be Pablo, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland. In that I see 4 ? marks, Ober and Paddack have durability concerns, Joe Ryan desperately needs consistent secondaries and more sustained velocity, and Varland has yet to be an effective starter at the MLB level. The goal has to be to move Varland to the bullpen, thus I think we can get away with adding just one starter, but I think two would be ideal. I was frustrated with the twins lack of use of their second "long relief" guy they permanently rostered, and worst come to worst I'd be fine seeing a 6-man rotation when needed, maybe it helps keep guys fresh and healthy. I think there are a few good ways we could go about acquiring pitching, and I will also mention the classic twins method I'd expect to see if those preferable routes fail.
1a.. Add a high upside, high risk FA for relatively cheap
-If I were to pick one guy we should be targeting in all of free agency, it would be Frankie Montas. Coming off an injury, and limited success directly before that, he'll be as cheap as he ever will be. I think the concern about pitchers injury history is overblown. All pitchers get hurt, Montas doesn't concern me, he's got a giant frame and has sustained higher inning volume in the past, if there's mechanical issues I trust we can fix those. For those unfamiliar with his repertoire, Montas has a big fastball, and a great changeup. I think if he's just healthy he slots in right behind Pablo. I also think just like Pablo, he's some small tweaks with his breaking balls away from being elite elite. I love the risk:reward ratio here, and would love to see him added on 2--3+ yr deal.
1b. Trade for front end pitching
-There's a few guys rumored to be available, that should be definite targets of the twins, they're young, the have years of control, and they have big stuff. Those are the most important factors in my mind. Because of what I just mentioned they'll cost a hefty prospect package, and rightfully so, but if I'm the twins I'm open to trading anyone not named Emmanuel Rodriguez (I think his consensus value is more representative of his floor right now). These pitchers I'm referring to are in order of my preference: Jesus Luzardo (MIA), Logan Gilbert (SEA), Mitch Keller (PIT), Tarik Skubal (DET). I've seen rumors about all of these guys being available, but if I were to place bets, I'd bet against us actually acquiring any of these names.
-There's a next tier of pitchers that should be available, again young and thus cost-efficient, but a bit less proven and a bit less going on in the developed repertoire department. The names I'd be targeting in this group are Bryan Woo (SEA), Bryce Miller (SEA), Edward Cabrera (MIA), Trevor Rogers (MIA), Reid Detmers (LAA), Patrick Sandoval (LAA), Griffin Canning (LAA). The SEA guys will still take a pretty big prospect haul, but in general these guys are gonna be a bit cheaper to acquire. Again, these are all guys I'd project to slot in as our #2 currently, with realistic developmental potential to become a top-end starter.
1c. Add a more established FA
-There's a couple guys out there that I think are interesting for the twins, they maybe aren't quite as young, but these are good value, solid upside picks. There's only a few guys in here, none of them are particularly exciting, but it's better than 1d, which I'll get too shortly. The first two I'd highlight are LHPs, James Paxton and Sean Manaea, which I think is an organizational need, and they have real solid stuff, and are gonna be relatively affordable. I'd also look at Lucas Giolito, has had some good years, and there's still the potential to develop his breaking ball and get a bit more out of him. I think because of his past success, he'll still net a good contract, possibly pricing us out. All 3 of these guys, as I mentioned, aren't exciting, probably slotting in as 4-5 guys in our rotation, but that's just fine if it allows Varland to be the weapon we know he can be in the bullpen.
1d. The Twins special, add a washed up elder with a bad stuff profile
-This is what I fear will happen. The JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Chris Archer, Dylan Bundy type additions. We do it way too much and it always kills me, adding these older guys who don't throw hard and don't have any other out pitches left. It's a waste of money, and it's a waste of starts when we could get the same results from AAA guys at a fraction of the cost.
2. Add a Right Handed Bat
-I honestly don't care too much about what position they play, or if it comes from free agency or trade. I do think Hoskins will be too expensive for us realistically, but would love to see that addition. One guy I'd love to see us go after that almost makes too much sense, is Jo Adell (LAA). He's got a top prospect pedigree, has killed at AAA but struggled with production at the MLB level and injuries. He just can't crack consistent playing time with the angels, and I think a straight up trade for Trevor Larnach could be great for both sides as the angels need LHH. Baseballtradevalues.com calls this a fair trade, but I love Adell for us and would be willing to go even higher.  He's a big time athlete, crazy power and can steal bases, he'd play every day against LHP, and if we can get him going he's got huge middle of the order potential. I think it'd be a great pickup with serios boom potential and almost no cost to us. As far as free agents go, Bader makes alot of sense, versatile, hits LHP, can play CF. If you're looking more for an impact bat, the guy that would be exiting to me would be Soler.
3. Trade Christian Vazquez
One of my gripes with this front office, is that they seem very slow to admit mistakes. I'd love to be proven wrong here and see them ship Vazquez off, but I doubt it happens. $20M for the next two years is just too much, he's not getting any younger, doesn't make hard contact, and we saw in the playoffs exactly where he fits into this roster...on the bench. There's a market out there for catchers, the Braves were able to move Max Stassi and his $7.5M within a day of getting him, and he's barely played this year. I'd trade Vazquez for no one, or even give up some low end prospect to give him off the books, but right now if the budget is what we're told, the $10M he's owed this year needs to be allotted to shoring up other weaknesses. I'm not sure what the Twins are gonna do, but it was interesting to see Jair Camargo get added to the 40-man, it gives me a bit of hope that they're at least trying to move Vazquez. FWIW Camargo's bat is electric, and he's gonna get a chance in the MLB some day with some team, would love for it to be here in a 70-30/60-40 type split with Jeffers this year.
4. Add Relief Help
Injuries happen, we have a good bullpen on paper right now, that is a fact, but there should always be a focus on adding depth. We have Duran, Jax and Stewart locked in to high leverage roles as long as they stay healthy, Alcala deserves a shot at that 6th inning-Emilio Pagan role, we forget too easily he's not far removed from being dominant in 2021. His stuff has been great in winter ball, and I think in a one-inning role (I'll revolt if they try and use him in a multi-inning role again coming off injury) he will be great. As mentioned before, it's yet to be seen what happens with Varland, but if he's in the pen, pencil him in for the Duran 2022-lite role, he'll face the best guys when they first come up in mid-late innings. As I said, real solid potential in the bullpen already, and I think there are a couple guys in the minors who could be difference makers too this year, Matt Canterino if he can stay healthy, and Ronny Henriquez, health abiding as well. But, as I said, depth does not hurt, guys in the bullpen will get hurt, it's just a fact. I wouldn't be looking to spend big money on the well known commodities, I'm looking at cheaper under the radar guys with big stuff, who could get a shot at a low leverage role and potentially run with it. There's a few guys I'll namedrop: Shintaro Fujinami, Codi Heuer, Josh Staumont, all of these guys could easily be DFA candidates by midseason, but they also have big time stuff and will be well worth the small risk of investment. The only two well-known names on the FA market that interest me are Jordan Hicks and Wandy Peralta, as I mentioned, I doubt we'll get either, but would be excited to see either in MPLS.
5, Don't give up on the young guys yet
Recency bias is strong, and I think in the case of Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff it's fair, they both were a bit (at the least) frustrating last year. I know both now have injury concerns, but the value their contracts provide is fantastic for a smaller market team looking to cut costs. I keep seeing bigger names thrown around on Twins Twitter for who we should sign in FA to play 1B/DH, but I think it would be perfectly wise to give that position to in house guys. For context Alex Kirilloff was rarely healthy last year, and he still put up an OPS+ of 117, that's a starting quality offensive player. I also think that's fair to assume is near his floor, his bat speed clearly wasn't what it was as a rookie last year, and he didn't provide a ton of pop, but I think there's legitimate potential to regain that bat speed/power and become the 30 HR guy he was projected to be coming up. The context for Miranda is simple, the guy has hit everywhere he went the 3 years prior to last year. Don't forget that every single one of us would have penciled him in happily as the 3/4/5 hitter in the opening day lineup this last year. Sure, his batted ball metrics were never great even in 2022, but he hit for contact and he hit for power, a combo that no one else on this team possesses to the level he did. One injury riddled season isn't indicative of his whole career, and I think he's earned plenty of shots to produce this next year. My point being, it is just too early to give up on these guys, and we've seen that when they're healthy they're just too good for AAA, that's why I do not think the 1B/DH position should be an offseason priority for this team, as the roster stands currently. Even behind Kirilloff and Miranda there's an in-house guy in Yunior Severino who is deserving of a shot at the MLB. Keep the Rhys Hoskins money and spend it on pitching and a right handed outfielder.
That's my TedTalk, let me know what you all think. 

The Minnesota Twins go into the offseason with an excellent combination of top prospects and serious depth throughout the organization. With plenty of young players putting up nice seasons, a recent end-of-the-year update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects list shows real movement.
For the Twins organization, prospect graduations took place this year in the form of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Louie Varland. It wasn’t just the guys that made it to the big leagues where substantial change was experienced. With a mid-October update to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects, it’s clear there are a few names that jump off the page.
As Minnesota looks to find ways to supplement the major league roster for Rocco Baldelli this offseason, utilizing prospect capital could be a plan for Derek Falvey. The organization could see a change in payroll realities on the heels of a new television outcome, and trades may be a more cost-effective way to add than the free agent market. Beyond that, we saw what rookies can look like as contributors in 2023, and identifying who creates the next wave is a must.
Here are some notable names that saw their stock rise in 2023:
1. Walker Jenkins
Taking over the top spot from Brooks Lee, Jenkins went from the draft to pro ball and didn’t skip a beat. He blitzed through rookie ball and contributed at Single-A for Fort Myers. He probably could have handled High-A and helped with the Cedar Rapids Kernels Midwest League title. Jenkins is already preparing for 2024, and while he will be less than 12 months removed from high school, betting against a meteoric rise doesn’t seem like a good proposition. He’s probably not making it to The Show in the upcoming season, but getting to Minnesota, specifically St. Paul, would be an incredible outcome.
11. Kala'i Rosario
Drafted in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB Draft, the performance of Rosario (and Marco Raya) has helped to withstand the blow of missing on Aaron Sabato. Rosario had an .832 OPS as a 20-year-old at High-A Cedar Rapids, and his 21 homers indicate that he has come into his power. The strikeouts are still substantial, so reigning that in as he develops is a must, but there’s a legitimate power hitter here. Minnesota sent Rosario to the Arizona Fall League this year, and he’s hit five homers in his first 15 games. Continued development is needed for the Hawaii native, but he’s still young, and seeing what his season looks like at Double-A should be fun.
15. Cory Lewis
It’s easy to call Lewis’ season the best among the pitchers on the farm, given he won both the Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Year award and the same designation from Minnesota themselves. He was a 9th round pick that immediately made noise, and while he throws a knuckleball, he’s not a traditional knuckleballer. Lewis was an integral part of the Kernels championship run, and after posting solid numbers with Fort Myers, he got better when he went up a level. Lewis recently turned 23-years-old and should begin the year at Double-A. That would put him in play as a potential late-season option for a major league debut should things go well. Lewis doesn’t have the ceiling of Raya, but he could elevate to David Festa prospect status with Minnesota by sometime in 2024.
Here are a couple of names that saw their stock fall in 2023:
13. Connor Prielipp
The second-round pick in 2022 was coming off an injury when selected and hadn’t pitched since 2021 for Alabama. Minnesota took the time to get him back healthy, but it resulted in just 6 2/3 innings before going back under the knife. There’s no question that Prielipp has the skills to be an ace pitcher, but his inability to stay healthy has been problematic for years. He hasn’t done anything statistically to account for his fall, but being unavailable while others pass him by has dropped him out of the Twins top 10.
14. Yasser Mercedes
Mercedes came stateside in 2023 and saw a substantial dip in production. He was just 18 years old but dropped over .300 points in OPS while playing in just 25 games. His Dominican Summer League numbers still reflect his abilities, but it’s a reminder that international youth can be challenging to project. The hope would be that Mercedes can remain healthy in 2024 and spend a significant portion of the season playing for Fort Myers. He’s a speed and power threat who already has a good idea of the strike zone. The athleticism in the outfield plays, and that combination is an exciting one to dream about.
17. Simeon Woods Richardson
Acquired as the second piece in the Jose Berrios trade alongside Austin Martin, it was more of a learning year for the former top-100 prospect. The success from 2022 evaporated, and his one major league outing went terribly. Woods Richardson threw a career-high amount of innings, but he looked ineffective for most of them. There was a positive trend at the end of the season, but the gaudy walk rate continued to hold him back. This offseason is an important one for the former Blue Jays prospect, and ensuring he’s committed to training and focused on taking a step forward will show up in 2024.
What prospects are you most excited about in the season ahead? Is there a name or two you might be worried about?

I’ve decided to write a series of posts regarding the depth in the Twins system, or possibly lack thereof depending on how you feel about a particular position. I plan to go position by position in hopes to shed some light on who could make an impact as early as 2023, or who may make an impact within a few years. I was inspired by Nick Nelson’s posts regarding the major league team, but didn’t want to duplicate what he did, so I will only be writing about the guys not on the 40-man roster, because Nick has done a great job analyzing the position at the major league level.
I started with catchers, then discussed 1st baseman. In this iteration, I will talk about 2nd baseman. I used Roster Resource’s depth chart, which can be found on FanGraphs. Here is a note on each player listed under 2nd base in the Twins system not on the 40-man roster. I’ll list how they were acquired and what level they are currently at in the minors.
Hernán Perez
Acquired: Free Agency, March 2023
Level: AAA It’s safe to say Perez was a depth signing, as we saw a lot of this past offseason with the Twins. Perez is a light hitting utility infield with experience at the major league over parts of 10 years. His most productive season was in 2016 with the Milwaukee Brewers, where he stole 34 bases and hit .272. During that season, he still had a below average OPS+ of 91. I’m not sure you’ll see Perez in the major leagues this season unless injuries ravage the many guys ahead of him on the 2nd base depth chart. Having a guy with a good amount of major league experience in the high minors is nice because he provides depth at not just 2nd base, but shortstop and 3rd base as well.
 
Alerick Soularie
Acquired: Draft – 2nd round - 2020
Level: AA If you follow prospects closely, you have probably seen some on Soularie. He’s been in the Twins system for a few years now and has yet to really make an impact with the bat to this point. In 2 seasons in the minors, he has a slash line of .231/.343/.376. This shows that he walked at a decent clip, but he struck out at a pretty high rate as well. Cutting down on strikeouts and making more consistent contact will be key to unlocking the next level in Soularie’s offensive game. As for defense, he is listed as a 2nd baseman, but had just as many games across the outfield last year, which is always beneficial to have a guy who can be out in the grass and not look completely lost.
 
Mikey Perez
Acquired: Draft – 15th round - 2021
Level: AA Perez was drafted in the 15th round out of UCLA, after hitting .243/.366/.443 across 3 seasons with the Bruins. In two seasons since, Perez has continued to walk at a high rate and even started to tap into a bit more power with more extra base hits. Perez made it up to AAA St. Paul for one game this past year, getting 1 at bat and making the most of hit, hitting a 3-run home run. While that’s great, it makes since that he has started the year at AA Wichita, after spending the majority of the year at Low-A Fort Myers in 2022. Perez is an interesting prospect to break down because he wasn’t highly touted but he has held his own. Hitting with a little more contact will be what propels him to that next level if he is able to reach it. Perez played mostly 2nd base, but did play a handful of games at 1st base, and also had some guys as shortstop and in left field as well. Getting young players to play different positions is not uncommon, but it appears his future is as a 2nd baseman. Keep an eye out for Perez to cut down on strikeouts and see if he can continue to get some extra base this year as well.
 
Dalton Shuffield
Acquired: Draft – 10th round - 2022
Level: High-A Shuffield was drafted one year ago out of Texas State University. He played 5 seasons at Texas State, hitting .327/.395/501, which is a pretty solid slash line at any level. After getting drafted, he had games at three different levels, rookie ball, high-A, and AAA. He’s played a total of 25 minor league games, so he is still pretty fresh out of college. This year will be his first full year at pro ball and it appears he will start the year at high-A Cedar Rapids. For a more in depth look, check out Cody Christie’s article for Twins Daily on Shuffield this past September here. As Cody mentions, Shuffield could move up through the system pretty quickly if he continues to hit like he has. Shuffield played mostly shortstop in college, but is listed as a second baseman at this time.
Rubel Cespedes
Acquired: Amateur Free Agent, 2019
Level: High-A Cespedes was signed as a minor league free agent in 2019 and has played across a few different levels ever since. He signed as an 18 year old out of the Dominican Republic. He has a career slash of .254/.312/372 over his 3 seasons (he did not play in 2020 due to the pandemic). Cespedes first played as a 1st baseman and 3rd baseman, but has shifted to mostly 2nd base over the past two seasons. His 2nd most played position in 2022 was 1st base, followed by 3rd base and also had three games played in left field. Cespedes will play this year, his age 22 season, at high-A Cedar Rapids. You may have seen during Twins exhibition game versus the Dominican Republic that Cespedes got a chance to represent his country, which must have been a really neat opportunity for him.
 
Tanner Schobel
Acquired: Draft – 2nd round - 2022
Level: Low-A Schobel was drafted this past year in the 2nd round out of Virginia Tech, after hitting .362/.445/689 in 59 games playing for the Hokies. In his first taste of professional ball, Schobel showed his ability to take walks at high level, which will help him going forward. Schobel’s body of work has him ranked as the #17 ranked prospect in the Twins system, and #18 on the Twins Daily rankings. Schobel played a good amount of shortstop in college, but it’s possible because of the depth there, he moves to another position. Keep an eye out for Schobel to slowly climb the ladder and be possibly knocking on the door of the majors within the next couple of years.
 
Yilber Herrera
Acquired: Amateur Free Agent, 2022
Level: Rookie Signed in 2022 as an Amateur Free Agent out of the Dominican Republic, Herrera’s tools are quite raw, but have some potential in there. He didn’t hit particularly well in his professional debut, but that’s not uncommon for young players. He did show an ability to take walks, even when he wasn’t getting many hits. In his first 43 professional games in 2022, he hit .181/.349/310. Lots of room to still grow, but if his ability to take walks continues to be a big part of his game, one would hope the traditional 5 tools would all come along to make him into a decent ball player. Lots of time still, but he will likely spend most of the year at rookie ball this year.
 
Fredy Michel
Acquired: Amateur Free Agent, 2021
Level: Rookie Signed in 2021 as an amateur free agent, Michel has played in both the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League the past two seasons. He signed for $1.1 million and was ranked #28 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 international prospects list in 2021.In 2021, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com said about Michel, “likely suited for the top of the lineup because of his speed and power combination. He makes lots of hard contact with his short, quick swings from both sides of the plate. The high-energy prospect can spray the ball to all fields with authority.” Michel career slash of .169/.315/.252 is kind of interesting but not a huge things to worry about, as he is still young and developing. He is still just 18 years old, turning 19 in July. He’ll likely spend the year, or most of it, in the Florida Complex League. He’s got quite a small frame, listed at 5’9” and 154 lbs. Here’s to hoping he can continue to develop and live up to some of the hype from when the Twins signed him a couple of years ago.
 
Let me know which of these guys you are most excited about or who you will be keeping an eye on. If a guy is not listed here, he may be listed as another position

The Twins come into the year with a lot of guys that can play at the major league level, but with such a logjam at certain positions, it might be hard for some players to distance themselves. These are 5 guys that I think will have potentially huge roles to play if everything goes right for them. In no particular order...
1. Jorge Alcala 
This is a pretty common breakout pick and yet I also feel like Alcala is not talked about enough for whatever reason. Alcala, 27, was one of the pieces sent to the Twins in the Ryan Pressely trade back in 2018, Alcala was decent during the COVID season with a 2,63 ERA in 24 innings and a 3.92 ERA in nearly 60 innings in 2021 before a injury to his throwing shoulder sidelined him for the majority of last year. Outside of Duran, Thielbar and Jax, the twins have a lot of uncertainty in the bullpen that was fairly middle of the pack in the MLB last year. Alcala has touched 98 with his fastball this spring and I truly believe he might have a Duran type full breakout depending on his role. The Twins didn't do much this offseason to address the bullpen, so they clearly have a lot of belief in what they have already. I feel like Alcala has the tools already to etablish himself for a long time in the bulpen. 
 
2. Royce Lewis. 
We already saw a small sample size of Royce last year, which for the most part showed a ton of promise. In just 12 games, he batted .300 with a grand slam as his first big league homer, and also made some plays out in center. Unfortunately, he suffered another torn ACL that ended his year and will keep him out for at least half of this year. When he eventually goes come up though around the middle of the summer, Royce should provide a great amount of depth in the middle infield and potentially the outfield. Maybe even get reps at SS when Correa has an off day. I thought Royce was going to have a ROY like campaign, but alas that never happened. However the true test for Royce is probably 2024, where I really think he'll start to become an everyday starter for the Twins. 
 
3. Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach just had a 4-4 day against Boston in a spring training game today, falling a triple shy of the cycle. I've always liked Larnach, despite relatively mediocre stats in 130 games in two years. With Alex Kirloff starting the year most likely on the IL, it gives more of an opportunity for Larnach, who has a .951 OPS and 3 home runs this spring. With injuires to Polanco as well, it pretty much secured Larnach his spot on the opening day roster for the beginning of the year. If he continues to play like this at the beginning of the regular season, expect Larnach to lock down a lot of playing time, whether that's in a corner outfield spot or as a DH. 
 
4. Bailey Ober
I've always been a fan of Bailey, and this year I think he'll really get a chance to shine in the rotation as the 5th/ maybe even 6th starter. He's thrown 6 shutout innings this spring and has shown that he is at 100% before the year, especially after he struggled to stay healthy last year and only made 11 starts.  Still, teams struggled against Bailey when he was on the mound, with only a .227 average and only 4 home runs hit off of him in 56 innings. I'm not going to be too worried if we do suffer an injury in the rotation, because I genuinely believe Bailey has the tools to be a full-time guy in an MLB rotation. If he has to start at AAA, I'm excited to see how he improves before inevitably getting a call up at some point. 
 
5. Austin Martin 
This is a wildcard pick for me. Lots of infield prospects could have big breakouts in the majors or at the minor league level this year. I've always liked Austin, his start to last year was rough and the torn UCL didn't help either. His Arizona fall league performance was very promising, as a elite level contact hitter with great discipline, it shouldn't take long for him to rake at AA and get a fast call up to AAA. If he impresses in the minors this year, a 40 man spot might open up, making this year a big audition year for the 24 year old former top 5 draft pick. 

After a long, harsh Minnesota winter, Spring Training offers and a glimpse of green grass and the hope of a successful Twins season. The Twins’ time in Florida is like any trip to the Sunshine State—some visitors leave with a golden tan, others depart with bad sunburn. As the team prepares to head north, here are my winners and losers from the Twins’ Spring Training. Let’s start with the guys who got burned.
Losers
1. Kenta Maeda
Spring Training stats should never weigh heavily in player evaluations, but when a veteran pitcher like Maeda returns from 19 months of Tommy John rehab, his performance will be scrutinized. Despite a solid outing today, Maeda’s spring has been mediocre. He has posted a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings, issuing 10 walks, striking out 14 batters, and showing inconsistent fastball velocity. These numbers aren’t awful, yet with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods-Richardson all seeking a spot in the rotation, Maeda’s grasp of the fifth starter role grows looser. King Kenta will need to regain his pre-injury form quickly or risk being relegated to a diminished role.
2. Trevor Megill
Megill’s arm talent is undeniable. His fastball consistently touches 100 MPH and advanced metrics show that his breaking pitches are competent. Unfortunately, the on-field results never seem to match the underlying metrics (much like his bullpen mate Emilio Pagán). Megill entered the spring with a shot at a bullpen role with the Twins, then struggled to a 10.80 ERA and 2.10 WHIP before being demoted to Triple-A on March 19. Twins fans will probably see Megill again this season as he will be one of top relief options available in St. Paul, yet it’s fair to wonder how many second chances Megill will receive.
3. Gilberto Celestino
2023 is the most important season of Gilberto Celestino’s career. That is a strange statement considering Celestino played 122 games with the Twins last season and will likely spend most of 2023 in Triple-A. However, given Celestino’s limited minor league experience (only 75 career games above High-A), this season at Triple-A is critical for his maturation as a player. The thumb injury Celestino suffered early in camp required surgery, putting his development plan on hold while he is out until late April. Missing one month isn’t catastrophic, but finger injuries can linger. If Celestino rushes back or suffers a setback, his long-term development will pay the price.
Winners
1. Edouard Julien
Despite all the praise that top prospect Brooks Lee garnered in Fort Myers, Julien is undoubtedly the Twins prospect whose stock has risen the most this spring. Across seven games with the Twins and four games with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Julien is hitting .394 (13 for 33) with five homeruns and six walks. His advanced approach at the plate looks MLB-ready, mixing patience with power. The Twins’ infield depth and questions about Julien’s defensive home created a roster crunch that resulted in Julien being optioned to Triple-A on March 14, but Julien’s performance this spring shows that he is ready to contribute at Target Field.
2. Kyle Farmer
Farmer’s solid Spring Training—an OPS of 1.052 and four homeruns—has flown under the radar as health questions about Alex Kiriloff, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda have dominated Twins infield storylines. The 31-year-old Farmer is a six-year veteran, so a good month of March doesn’t change his projected upside, but he is a “winner” here because he will leave Fort Myers poised to parlay his hot bat into important at-bats for the Twins. His infield counterparts Polanco and Kirilloff are starting the season on the Injured List, meaning Farmer will play a critical role in the Twins’ early-season success. If Farmer keeps hitting, the Twins offense will get a massive boost and Farmer could become a valuable trade chip to fill an everyday role on another team.
3. The Twins Front Office
There are plenty of valid questions about the Twins’ offseason moves. Will Joey Gallo rebound from his terrible 2022 season? And did the team need another left-handed hitting outfielder? How will the offense replace the bat-to-ball skills of Luis Arraez? etc. Regardless, one thing is clear this spring: this Twins roster is deep. Yes, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kiriloff are starting the season on the IL, however the Twins have starting-caliber replacements in Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Nick Gordon. Typically, exclusively DH-ing a Platinum Glove winner like Byron Buxton would wreck a team’s defense, but the Twins adding recent Gold Glove winners in Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo minimizes the defensive decline. And Bailey Ober, probably the odd man out of the Twins’ early-season starting rotation, has yet to allow a run this spring and continues to look like a fourth starter in a competent MLB rotation. Not to mention the prospect reinforcements waiting at Triple-A. All said, Spring Training has shown that this front office deserves credit for building the deepest Twins roster in recent memory.
...
Thanks for reading! I'm interested to hear your thoughts and your winners/losers of the spring.

For some time now I've advocated to trade for a very good catching prospect because our cupboards are bare and I don't see Jeffers as very good catcher who I want to start on any frequency. Last year I advocated for Endy Rodriguez (PIT) who will debut this season, who we could have picked up cheap because they had the '21 #1 draft pick, catcher Henry Davis and he was behind him. Now Endy's talent is very well known and has become very expensive and has leaped frog over Davis. 
I have a new target, Edgar Quero, 19 yrs. (LAA) catcher, who was in A ball. Here are a couple sites that evaluated Quero. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tbq99OPGLE8&t=14s
"Scout to Statline" is very high on Quero, They rated him #2 behind Alvarez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_70-LN4HwY&t=389s
"Locked ON MLB Prospects" gives us some insights on his defense. Which were impressed with how he works with pitchers & how to call a game. He had a good CS ratio although he has  slightly above average arm. Being only 19 his physical development is still going on where he can develop more arm strength & more power. Quero should start in High A ball this season and IMO could reach AAA by the end. In '24 I believe he could debut.
Quero is just starting to be recognized. If we respond soon, we can still get him pretty reasonable. LAA has O'Hoppe who'll debut this year and is ranked very high as a catcher by all. We should come up with a trade that interests LAA to make this happen. What do you think?

I’ve been watching Tyler White and the way he has been used, such that he has the second most AB of any Twin. His average is rising and he hit a recent home run. He has 26  HR in 760 MLB appearances (a Willie Wilson season, almost!) to go along with 103 RBIs.
The Twins need a first baseman, Kirilloff seems quite iffy now and White could slide right in and just in 550 AB, he would be expected to hit 19 HR with 75 RBIs.
It might take an unlikely chain of events for White to be the first baseman but I have to think they’re giving him the 2nd most AB on the whole roster for a reason.
 

Kyle Farmer is a starting quality MLB SS will fill a bench role for the Twins this year. While he is valuable in that role, his biggest value might have just come in - as a trade chip to the Dodgers to replace Gavin Lux at SS after Lux tore his ACL yesterday.  The Dodgers other option is 34-year-old Miguel Rojas who they acquired from the Marlins before spring training. You have to think the Dodgers are looking for a starting caliber SS that's locked into a reserve role on another team, particularly one who can be a 1 or 2 year option while Lux recovers or they get a free agent next winter. Voilà! 32-year-old longtime starting SS Kyle Farmer seems to meet all of those criteria.
Interestingly enough, the Dodgers could also use a proven outfielder. They do have Mookie Betts in right, but are looking at an aging Chris Taylor and an unproven  Trayce Thompson to play center with a very unproven James Outman in left. It seems like a respected veteran like Max Kepler might be a good fit.

I think there's a real possibility that Kyle Farmer becomes a trade talking point between the Twins and the Dodgers. It would not surprise me if Kepler is also in the discussion. The Dodgers have a deep farm system particularly in pitching and catching. I do think there's a match. May be a Caleb Ferguson or Andre Jackson might be a good piece for Farmer. Add Kepler and maybe you can get Outman, Landon Knack, or Nick Mastrini or 1 of them plus someone a little farther down the list? Who knows, maybe there's a way to pry Ryan Pepiot away if you offer, Farmer, Kepler and maybe a solid AA guy.
I think there's a real opportunity here for the Twins to trade what are now somewhat redundant pieces - a 32-year-old starting caliber Shortstop who will be relegated to a reserve role for the one year he is with the team and a 30-year-old good fielding, roughly average hitting outfielder for whom there seemed to be adequate replacements. The Dodgers are a win now team that needs both those kinds of players. What you guys think?

The Twins will need all of their starting pitching depth, and then some more than likely.  Even the healthiest teams use 6-7 starters over the course of a full season.  Factoring in recent injury woes for Twins pitchers and one thinks the Twins will use 6-7 starters easily this year. But lets assume the Twins keep a 5 man rotation.  With the Twins most likely using 6-7, there will still be 4-5 "Primary starters".  and 2-3 that will either be short term starters, sporadic starters, or spot starters.  
We have some obvious Primary Starters locked in.  Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez  are locks.
Lets go ahead and assume that Tyler Mahle  is fully healthy and will be good to go. that is a 4th no brainer.  So who is, or better yet who SHOULD be #5?
I can tell you right who IS, or WILL be #5, and that is Kenta Maeda. The Twins will be banking on Maeda being the All Star level pitcher he was in 11 games in the Covid shortened 2020 season. Where in 11 games he went 66 innings, good for a 6+ inning average with 80K against 10 BB a 2.70 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP.
But... SHOULD he be th e5th starter? and is it reasonable to expect that after a year+ off? His career averages are a 3.87 ERA  just under a 4:1  K:BB rate,  a 9.85K/9  and a 1.14 WHIP.  Those are still very good numbers anyone would love to have in the rotation.
That being said, in albeit a much shorter sample size, Ober has career numbers of 3.82 ERA, just under a 5:1 K rate, a 9K/9IP and a 1.15 WHIP..
If we go by the numbers,  it says they are both equally effective starting pitchers. And the question you must ask then is... "IF they are both equal, and  both interchangeable for each other, then who should be the 5th starter?"
"Common sense" or maybe more accurately "traditional thinking" says it should be Maeda, as Ober still has options.  But should he???
I would argue we need to look longer term. Any player CAN be resigned this offseason, so in theory ANY of our starters could be back, BUT... in reality we will not resign everyone, and we actually have only Randy Dobnak and Chris Paddack under contract for next year. Of course Joe Gray will be here, and will still have rights to Lopez, BUT the only sure things are Dobnak and Paddack.  Most likely Sonny Gray and Maeda will be gone.
With that in mind, I think the correct way to look at things, assuming both pitchers should give roughly the same results is to go with the pitcher who will still be here going forward and continue to give him the experience and build up he will need for next year. This way next year is not his first "full year" in the rotation and is not as much of a question mark.
Secondly while predominately a starter in LA, Maeda did also show he can be very successful out of the bullpen, and if you are a cheapskate you can save millions in bonuses paid to Maeda with him in a relief/PT starter situation.
The clear way of thinking screams the 5th starter needs to be Ober vs Maeda.

Although the Twins are really hurting for viable future catching yet it seems like Ricardo Olivar is totally off the Twins radar. In '22, Olivar was named the MVP of the FCL, FCL post season All-Star catcher and FCL player of the month in July. Although he's listed at catcher, where he played the most of his games, he still played a lot of games at CF and some at 2B and cOFs. He's also good defensively w/ above average arm.
Season Team Level Age G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA   wRC+         2021 MIN FCL 19 34 59 1 5 5 3 13.6% 28.8% .143 .290 .204 .339 .347 .336   92         2022 MIN FCL 20 40 154 5 16 23 5 11.7% 21.4% .256 .430 .349 .442 .605 .480   181 He got drafted in '19 but didn't start pro ball until '21 because of covid. Like a lot of these prospects during this time their development stopped & they became stagnant. The problem is he turned 21 last Aug, & that's a little old for rookie ball. My hope is like Endy Rodriguez exploding this year going from A to AAA, Olivar will do this coming year starting at A ball. Endy was Rule 5 draft eligible this year & Ricardo will be next year.
Ricardo didn't even make TD's honorable mention but he's been on my radar & I'll be tracking him this coming year.