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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I'm a trained professional - so is Rocco.
  2. arby58
    Ryan isn't a retread, and he's had health issues in the last two seasons. Bailey Ober missed the second half of 2022 with a groin injury. Injuries are a fact of life in sports.
  3. arby58
    So you buy into a 'SWR [IF] leap' over the guy who actually made the leap? That makes no sense, unless you spend a lot of time in Vegas.
  4. arby58
    I don't buy putting a pitcher with no MLB (or AAA for that matter) experience in the starting rotation over SWR, who started 28 games last year and was something of a rotation-saver until he wore down late in the season. Castellano is still just a prospect, not MLB-proven, which SWR is. I do agree they should put Varland in the bullpen from day one - his (or Alcala's) stuff is far superior to Tonkin, who is a career 0.0 WAR pitcher. He's not going to get any better - and Varland and Alcala have great upside potential in the BP.
  5. arby58
    Julien had a really bad 2024, but he had a really good 2023 (839 OPS in MLB). Martin had a really bad 2024 - and not a really good 2023 (.779 OPS at three minor league levels). So why the vitriol toward Julien and not Martin?
  6. arby58
    When I have scissors and need to get them somewhere in a hurry, I run with them all the time - never injured. You just have to know what you are doing.
  7. arby58
    Bader is going to make the 26 man roster, and my guess France will with even a halfway decent spring. I don't get all the dissension on France. His OPS+ in four MLB seasons prior to last year went 133, 128, 125, 101. Yes, last year was 92, but he also tried to play through a significant injury - even then his OPS was much higher than one of his purported contestants at IB, Julien, who put up an anemic 74. I have no idea why you think Gasper is a shoo-in for the 26 man roster. This was a trade of cast-offs for both teams - my bet is he is just AAA depth.
  8. arby58
    At the end of the spring training games, everybody's record will be 0-0. If you're going to be 'playing with fire' this is the time to do it.
  9. arby58
    It's an interesting question. So, I looked at basically all the Twins regulars from last year with a significant number of at bats at both (besides the previously cited Wallner, Miranda, and Julien, I added Correa, Larnach, Buxton, Castro, Santana, Jeffers, Kepler, Lewis, Vazquez). The ONLY one who has posted higher average OPB and OPS in MLB than in the minors is Lewis. Austin Martin is no Royce Lewis.
  10. arby58
    It's rare to find a player who matches his performance in the minors in MLB. Sometimes if a player is consistently younger than average for a league, but Martin was drafted out of college, so that hasn't always been the case. Cases in point: Miranda OBP of .315 and OPS of .729 in MLB, .338 and .777 in the minors. Julien .343 and .742 in MLB and .430 and .904 in the minors. Wallner .365 and .866 MLB and .379 and .896 minors. Those weren't cherry picked, just the first three I thought of that are sort of Martin's contemporaries.
  11. arby58
    Max Kepler in 2016?
  12. arby58
    IF he could ever get/stay healthy, he could be a big addition. You look at the minor league stats, and they are eye-popping - but just 85 innings over three seasons. Still, 1.48 ERA, 130 strikeouts, and a WHIP of 0.859. He's obviously got the stuff.
  13. arby58
    His OPS in 4 years in the minors averaged .760, and OBP .397 - it's quite a stretch to suggest he is going to outperform his minor league averages in MLB.
  14. arby58
    Martin's OBP last year with the Twins was .318, which is nothing to write home about - he trailed Correa, Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, Castro, Santana, and Miranda in that category. Yes, he can steal an occasional base (7 last year) and he is faster than most other hitters, but when you combine a pedestrian OBP with a meek slugging percentage (.352) you end up with a not great OPS of .670 and an OPS+ of 89. He really needs to up his OBP because he's never hit more than 7 HRs in a season of professional baseball.
  15. arby58
    While everybody can lose a ball in the sun, the thing I saw with him last year was poor footwork and being 'lost' in judging ball flights.
  16. arby58
    Gordon is not a good MLB player. Last year, in Miami, he had a .627 OPS, 68 OPS+ and a -1.7 WAR. He wasn't a good outfielder either, with a -6 defensive runs saved that would have translated into a -13 DRS over a 1,200 inning season. That dog won't hunt.
  17. arby58
    I sure didn't see anything in his favor in the outfield eye test last year. I suppose there is really no place to go but up. Baseball reference had him at -13 defensive runs saved for his playing time in the outfield and translates that into -30 defensive runs saved over a 1,200 inning year. There is general agreement that Margot was not a good outfielder last year - but he was -3 DRS for his playing time, which would have translated into -5 for a 1,200 inning year.
  18. arby58
    90th percentile exit velocity isolates the 10 percent of fair ball contact for a hitter and averages it. Since there is a clear correlation between high exit velocity and positive hitting outcomes, it is a useful tool. The article doesn't identify what they are in miles per hour for both players.
  19. arby58
    Graterol appeared in 82 minor league games and exactly half (41) was as a starting pitcher. Then, in 10 appearances with the Twins he was solely a relief pitcher. Raya has appeared in 66 minor league games, 64 as a starter. I would suggest that is A LOT more suggestion they consider him a starting pitcher than they did with Graterol.
  20. arby58
    Ober pitched 56 innings over 11 starts in 2022 - that hardly compares to SWR's 28 starts and 134 innings. If you found that 'far more impressive' my response would be 'small sample size.'
  21. arby58
    He's a right handed thrower and not particularly tall, neither of which is ideal for 1B. They tried Julien at 1B in 42 games in 2021, then a combined 12 games in 2022-2024. It looks like the Twins (even though strongly valuing positional flexibility) learned that Julien was not 1B material.
  22. arby58
    I suppose it's possible, although my guess would be if they keep him with the major league team, they park him in the bullpen while Stewart gets back into pitching shape. He's intriguing, but his minor league stats include exactly the same number of starts (36) as Matthews, and Mathews' minor league stats were better. Maybe they work out a trade with the Phillies? I think Paddock is a completely different set of circumstances.
  23. arby58
    Now understanding this is all hypothetical, I don't understand any decision making process - at least based on MLB performance - where SWR ends up back in AAA in 2025. He started 28 games for the Twins last year and threw 133.2 innings, so he's not a flash in the pan. Further, it's clear he wore down at the end of 2024, which inflated his season ERA. After beating the Padres on August 21, where he went 5 innings, he did not go 5 innings in his last 6 starts (and less than 4 in 3 of them), he had 2 losses and his ERA went up to 4.17. Further, in those starts he threw no more than 72 pitches. I view him sort of like Ober, where the Twins built him up to 178.2 innings pitched in MLB last year - my guess is they do the same with SWR this year.
  24. arby58
    Nice piece - I was surprised that Kaelen Culpepper wasn't on the list. Thoughts there?
  25. arby58
    He'll still be doing it in spring training, not the real thing - maybe see it a bit longer than 36 games that count. Reminds me of Allen Iverson's 'we're talkin' about practice, not the game.'
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