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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    The trade simulator website would beg to differ. They suggest both Jax and Duran are among the Twins top 10 most valuable trade assets. NONE of the Twins starting pitchers minus Ryan have as much value to them as Jax and Duran. Interestingly, given his salary 'anchor' Berrios currently has a negative value of -26.
  2. arby58
    The comparison is not that relevant. The Twins only had control of Berrios for one year, as opposed to the two for either Duran or Jax. Besides, they are seen as dominant relief pitchers, given their K ratios. Berrios was a solid starting pitcher, but a 7-5 record with a 3.48 ERA when the Twins traded him doesn't scream dominance. Absolutely bizarre to suggest the Twins give up two relief pitchers that are, league consensus, dominant late inning closer types for one top-100 prospect each.
  3. arby58
    I'm reading directly from the ESPN article: "...teams look at what the Twins are asking for to acquire Duran or Jax - at least two top-100-caliber prospects..." Nowhere does he suggest they would trade them both for just two top-100 prospects. Why would they? If Duran and Jax were prospects, they would be of the 'can't miss' variety - how are they getting better by trading two of their (arguably) best five players for (maybe they miss) prospects? Yes, two quality prospects for one of them, but nowhere near close enough for both.
  4. arby58
    It's hard to claim that the season was lost in April, when they had a 29-22 record on May 24th and were still 5 games over .500 at the end of May. The season most assuredly was lost in June, and that is pretty far removed from the end of 2024.
  5. arby58
    All of the above, as the OP suggests, has to be the 'most right' answer. It's a long season, and it is rarely just one thing that lets a team down in the 40 or so games that make or break a team. I think the FO over-estimated the emerging pitching at AAA, and the team took its lumps in June after 3/5ths of the rotation went down. Further, there was an expectation that some of the young members of the offensive core (Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, Miranda) would continue to progress. The thing about young players is their advancement is seldom linear, and each has demonstrated that in their 'own special way.' It is frustrating to see the Twins snatch defeat from the jaws of victory ala yesterday vs. the Dodgers, and plenty of neutral third-party observers mention the team's talent level (in a good way/bad way since they are not rising up to it). Yes, some of that is on the manager, but a lot is also on the players - ultimately, they, not the manager, have the most impact on the outcome of a game. The thing that primarily concerns me about the existing core is the lack of overall speed and athleticism (Buxton notwithstanding). The Twins are near the bottom of the league in stolen bases, and they don't do very well in fielding analytics either. My hope is that some of the 'next wave' of emerging players (Emma, Jenkins, Keaschall, Culpepper) will reverse that trend.
  6. arby58
    Why would 'cleaning house' lead to any greater expectation of success? The biggest problem that the Twins (and probably 20 of 30 MLB teams) face is the lack of a salary cap. Joe Ryan is an example: he's a great pitcher that they made into one, and in two years, he will sign for an ungodly amount of money with the Yankees-Mets-Red Sox-Phillies-Dodgers etc. So, teams like the Twins have to hope against hope that prospects they acquire for the stud players they already have will meet expectations. Hello? They don't all that often - and it isn't just a problem with the Twins. If you line up the records of all MLB teams in the last (pick a number) 5 or 10 years, the Twins are far from the developmental basket case some make them out to be.
  7. arby58
    I get that (and made the same point on another thread about his stock never being higher). That said, just how good he has been this year - it's really, really good, and there isn't anything that suggests it is smoke and mirrors. Hence two more years of this? Two prospects, no way. Here are stats for 2025 for two American League starting pitchers: #1 10-4, 4.5 WAR, 2.63 ERA, 0.903 WHIP. #2 10-3, 4.9 WAR, 2.19 ERA, 0.815 WHIP. Number two is the AL reigning CYA winner, Tarik Skubal. Number one is Joe Ryan. While Skubal leads in each category, it's pretty darn close.
  8. arby58
    I wouldn't do the deal as suggested even if they can't extend him. Let's face it, if he has a couple more strong years, the Twins will be hard pressed to afford him. That said, there is plenty of time to unload him next year if circumstances warrant. For that matter, they may just let it ride, count on 2027 to be the year of emergence of Jenkins and some of the other up and comers, with a real shot at making some noise. Look at Detroit - there was a lot of chatter about them trading Skubal a couple of years ago. I'm sure they're glad they didn't pull that trigger.
  9. arby58
    Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippDasan HillCharlee SotoGabriel GonzalezAndrew MorrisBrandon WinokurRiley QuickMarek HoustonKyle DeBargeCJ CulpepperRicardo OlivarCarson McCuskerBilly AmickKhadim DiawQuentin Young
  10. arby58
    It's not enough for what will likely be a CYA top 10 starting pitcher with 2 additional years of team control. Not even close to enough.
  11. arby58
    I live in Des Moines and have seen them both play on a few occasions - they are both young (22 and 21 respectively) and talented (Cubs numbers 1 and 2 prospects according to MLB.com). Was actually there last Saturday night for Ballesteros' bobblehead night. Unlike BB, Moises went 0 for 3 on his bobblehead night.
  12. arby58
    The only name that I would consider trading either of them for is Rushing. Agree that Ferris would be another decent piece of the puzzle.
  13. arby58
    His OPS throughout his minor league career has been pretty solid, and he's still only 24. I agree that sometimes patience is necessary - and generally not to be found on fan comment boards.
  14. arby58
    I don't disagree, which is why I stuck to ordinals related to trade surplus in my last response.
  15. arby58
    I think they have the Twins' three primary assets about right - Ryan, Jenkins, Buxton. The rest of the order is subject to some quibbling, but also doesn't seem to be such bovine excrement. After Buxton, they go, in order, Emma, Keaschall, Jax, Wallner, Matthews, Festa, Lee, Duran, Lewis, SWR, Prielipp, K. Culpepper, Ober, Varland. On the opposite end, there are four with negative trade values: Correa (-33.6), Vazquez (-2.8), Dobnak (-2.1), Topa (-0.9). Can't argue with any of those four.
  16. arby58
    Not so sure about that. The Baseball Trade Simulator projects Jax' surplus value as 27.2 and Duran as 20.5. As I noted earlier, I'd rather they keep Duran anyway, but if the simulator is correct (and I'm not vouching for it, just providing it as another source of information), then trade Jax.
  17. arby58
    I tend to agree with you. OTOH, Ryan may never have greater trade value. The Baseball Trade Simulator currently lists his surplus value as 73.1 - far and away the most of any Twins asset. Jenkins is next at 61.9, followed by Buxton (who isn't going anywhere) at 43.6. Interestingly, they put Jax' surplus value (27.2) ahead of Duran (20.5).
  18. arby58
    I was referring to your earlier quote, " I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term."
  19. arby58
    I don't entirely understand the love for Jax and relative disdain for Duran. Sure, his velocity is down a bit, 'only' hitting 100 mph every now and then, but a lot of baseball people don't think that's his best pitch (and maybe only third best) anyway. If you line up the stats, this year and career-wise, Duran wins hands-down - and he is three years younger. ERA year/career: Duran 1.62, 2.40; Jax 3.83, 3.97. WHIP year/career: Duran 1.128, 1.093; Jax 1.181, 1.129. WAR year/career: Duran 2.3, 7.3 (in four years); Jax 0.5, 3.9 (in five years). What am I missing?
  20. arby58
    It's hard to ignore Keaschall's impactful (if brief) appearance for the MLB Twins. 0.4 WAR in 26 plate appearances is pretty darn incredible. Granted, it could have been a fluke, but I will give those 26 PAs far more weight than comparing the two at the same age in MiLB. Besides, as noted, Keaschall has more speed and defensive ability.
  21. arby58
    The real issue is you'd be selling extremely low. It's sort of the problem that Chicago has had with trading CF Luis Robert Jr. - he of the 2025 season .625 OPS and 74 OPS+.
  22. arby58
    I take statements at face value - i.e., the writer meant what they said. It makes me feel better if that is actually the case. Your mileage may differ.
  23. arby58
    That litmus test hasn't existed for the Twins in recent memory (being 23 games over .500 near the trading deadline). You'd have to go back to 2019 for that.
  24. arby58
    He should be where he is, playing corner outfield or DH'ing. He's fourth on the team in OPS, third on the team in slugging percentage, and fifth in HRs. He has a positive OPS for the season (102) and strongly positive for his MLB career (129). Those aren't the MLB stats of a player who should be playing in AAA.
  25. arby58
    Clemens is 3rd on the team in HRs - in far fewer games than Buxton or Larnach. He is 3rd in OPS. He has a 1.1 WAR (also third among non-pitchers). Those aren't 'bad times in Twins Territory' numbers. It looks to me like you care a lot more about batting average than other aspects of the game. That game has passed - an over .700 OPS is about league average. He is far from the Twins offensive problem child.
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