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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    He's got to be seeking a raise, and he made $11.5 million last year. He's 40 years old - seems like a lot to pay when the Twins have a pretty good front end of the bullpen already.
  2. arby58
    The prize for 'the most laconic exchange' is awarded to tony&rodney and USAFCHIEF. Congrats to you both!
  3. arby58
    In 2023, in 9 relief appearances (including 2 in the post-season) he had a 1.50 ERA and struck out 18 batters in 12 2/3 innings. That's nearly 1 1/2 batters an inning. You don't do that without having swing and miss stuff.
  4. arby58
    When I was a kid, audiophiles would talk about 'dynamic headroom' - the ability of speakers to burst out sound without distortion. To me, the baseball equivalent is that Jax and Duran have that, and Varland has the potential - Tonkin does not.
  5. arby58
    I think you just throw last year's stats away with Varland - the disastrous start to the season messed him up. If you go back to 2023, down the stretch (in games that mattered, including two play-off appearances), he was electric as a relief pitcher. In 7 appearances during the regular season, it was 12 innings pitched, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks and 1 walk - for a WHIP of 0.583. Then two relief appearances in the play-offs (each 1/3 of an inning) no runs allowed and an additional K. That's a might nice stat line. Agreed, small sample size, but it gives you an idea that he isn't just a 'number eight' arm in the bullpen. I would be shocked if you can find a stretch like that for Tonkin, when games really mattered. He's just another arm, where Varland, in the right role, just might be special.
  6. arby58
    He certainly could end up at 1B, as plenty of 3Bers have done in the past (paging Harmon Killebrew and Miguel Sano). He's tall enough to have a pretty good reach, you'd prefer he was left handed, but nobody's perfect. I'm still not completely sold on Lee, and maybe (between he and Keaschal) he is the less athletic and ends up at 2B. The other issue (not this year, but maybe in 2-3 years) is Correa will probably be moved off SS, and there again, 3B is where a lot of shortstops go in their later years.
  7. arby58
    He was cut and picked up - and cut again - by three teams last year. Sure, somebody will pick him up, but that doesn't mean it's much of a loss when they do. If you really liked him, wait around, you can probably pick him up again.
  8. arby58
    In 7 MLB seasons, Tonkin has pitched 3 innings 6 times, only one of which was last year. Last year, until their starting pitching went off the rails in early August, through the first 111 games, they had a 'true' relief pitcher pitch 3 innings only once (Matt Bowman went 3 innings in a mop up role on April 15th). There was one case where Okert 'started' and went 1/3 of an inning, then Festa followed with 4 1/3 innings and one case where Paddock went 2 1/3 innings then Varland went 4 1/3, but otherwise just that 1 out of 111 games. You're keeping Tonkin around for that? Besides, it's not as if the Twins don't have relief pitchers who can go more than 1 inning. Through those first 111 games (I stopped counting after that) , Cole Sands did it 10 times, including 2 and 1/3 and 2 and 2/3rds appearances. Funderburk did it 7 times, Alcala 5 times - and, yes, Tonkin once. Even Duran did it. Keep a 'real' arm in the bullpen, not somebody you need to trot out for mop up duty once in a blue moon (even Dobnak did that last year).
  9. arby58
    Yep - Cubs.
  10. arby58
    Pretty much in agreement on most - definitely on Tonkin. He was released by three MLB teams last year, he's not an arm you should lose any sleep over losing.
  11. arby58
    Yeah, besides Rooker, Liam Hendricks is another player who was given ample opportunity (by multiple teams) and then suddenly became a very good relief pitcher.
  12. arby58
    Not sure where you are getting the BA numbers from - Baseball Reference disagrees. Besides, BA is a poor statistic for overall value. Look at his WAR - barely above zero in his years with the Tigers (there is a reason they released him), and much better with the Twins.
  13. arby58
    These sort of run the gamut of the types of players an organization can try to 'fix.' Gray was coming off probably his worst season, and his ERA dropped over a full run per game with the Twins - just a coincidence? Ryan was pretty much a one-pitch pitcher who hadn't been able to break out of the minors - that is not the pitcher he is now. Yes, Stewart was/is injury prone, but he was a reclamation project. If the Dodgers could see what he became in 2023, you really think they would have released him? 'Just needed a place to play' for Castro - he got as many or more plate appearances his last two years in Detroit as his first year in Minnesota. I guess they were all just luck.
  14. arby58
    Willi Castro. Brock Stewart. Sonny Gray. Joe Ryan.
  15. arby58
    There is no personal trainer that is going to be able to conclusively prevent ankle sprains.
  16. arby58
    Injuries don't only impact the Twins - they were not even close to the MLB team that lost the most games to injury last year (11th, according to Spotrack, 13th the year before, and 12th the year before that). When we're talking stuff like sprained ankles, I think we should all relax. That said, Emma is the one that is most concerning, given his history.
  17. arby58
    The pen is the place for him - and I'd much rather have him there than Tonkin. He's had more than ample opportunity to make it as a starter. Let him unleash that curve (and add a bit extra to the fast ball) one inning at a time.
  18. arby58
    I appreciated your 'he can't hit them' comment - a true first LOL of the day. Taking Rodriguez and Jenkins out of the discussion because we have no way of knowing how the Twins would use them, but one of the differentiators for a player besides offense is defense. None of the remainder of the group you mentioned (Wallner, Julien, Larnach) is a particularly good defensive player, and Julien's defensive runs saved at 2B is well below average. Even when Buxton isn't hitting, you want him in the lineup for his defensive play and disrupting speed on the bases. It's possible either Rodriguez or Jenkins will also provide that differentiation. Also, none of the three were ever a top 10 prospect in all of minor league baseball, ala Jenkins. He might end up being a Kyle Tucker type of player who plays every day regardless of who is pitching. My prediction is that if he is putting up Tucker-like numbers, he'll play everyday.
  19. arby58
    It's a stretch to suggest that he would put up those OPS+ numbers were he an everyday player. Look at his OPS splits - his first year wasn't too bad - .784/.691 - but his second year it was .918/.469. Other than the shortened 2020 (small sample size) he's never performed better against LHP - and the difference last year was .923/.749. Joc has played for six teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rangers) and can't get any of them to play him regularly against LHP - you think there might be a reason?
  20. arby58
    Incomplete information is often used because the cost associated with gathering complete (or even more complete) information outweighs its benefit. If, for example, 'the powers that be' assented to your begging and Wallner put up 'Vasquez-like' (or even Gallo-like) numbers for some period of time, would that cost (maybe a lost game or two) outweigh the benefit of more complete information? My guess is lots of posters around here would quickly reach that conclusion.
  21. arby58
    I'm not feeling their angst. If you are a left handed hitter, the statistics suggest you are going to be in the lineup two-thirds to three-fourths of the time, because that is the difference in righthanded versus lefthanded pitching. To me, this is a solution looking for a problem.
  22. arby58
    The last three transactions for him have been releases, not trades.
  23. arby58
    You can't compare Wallner's numbers over a full season until he actually plays one. Using anything other than his actual statistics is conjecture.
  24. arby58
    Why would anybody trade for Tonkin? Last year, the Twins traded for him (for cash) with the Mets. They then designated him for assignment four days later, and the Mets claimed him. A week later, the Mets designated him for assignment, and the Yankees claimed him. Then in August, the Yankees designated him for assignment and the Twins claimed him. He's about as valuable, trade material-wise, as a bag of batting practice balls.
  25. arby58
    The thing about trades is it requires two willing parties where needs align. I think those clamoring for the Twins to 'do something' often disregard this fact. On a website devoted to trade rumors that I frequent, fans often discuss 'this for that' trade possibilities with the site's subject matter experts. Far more often than not the 'expert' dismisses it as not realistic for one (or even both) side(s).
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