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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Absolutely no baseball world where that trade exists for any of those three for one year of Jeffers. You can bet the Twins asked for Painter or Miller for Duran and didn't come anywhere close to that in return.
  2. arby58
    My guess is the 'final five' are 1. Jenkins 2. Ryan 3. Keaschall 4. Culpepper 5. Lopez. I'm pretty sure of the 'top 2' and the other three are somewhat interchangeable. In some other posts, I've compared this list to that generated by the Baseball Trade Value Simulator. By far the biggest outlier (in terms of this list having higher value than the trade simulator) is SWR - they don't have him in their top 20 Twins trade assets (although I think they have him too low). Assuming Lopez is in the top 5, he is also more highly valued than the simulator, which ranks him 15th. Same with Culpepper, who they rank 14th. I tend to agree with the higher value for Culpepper and am not sure about Lopez. On the flip side, it gives much higher value to Lee (5 vs. 18) and Bradley (4 vs. 10). I'm not sold on Lee, but Bradley is intriguing. As I said elsewhere, this is all subjective, and only time will tell. It would be an interesting look-back exercise in three or four years.
  3. arby58
    That it's not a 'this year' roster is the point of assigning value to assets for their useful life, not their current value. Obviously, if we were talking current value as an MLB player, Walker Jenkins would have already been on the list (and current MLB players like Ryan Jeffers and Bailey Ober wouldn't be trailing the likes of Bradley or Emma).
  4. arby58
    It wouldn't matter as much for Lee offensively if he were a better defensive shortstop. Ideally, he would be at second base, Keaschall would be in the outfield, and they would have a better fielding shortstop playing there. My mid-winter daydream would have Kaelen Culpepper making the jump from AA to the majors and playing average shortstop (a step above Lee) and hitting at least as well. It's nice to dream - hope springs eternal, at least until spring.
  5. arby58
    It's a little selective in your recollection. First, I don't remember most people suggesting Kepler was going to be a superstar - he was sub .800 OPS his first three years and didn't get above that until 2019, which was about when Buxton emerged. Sano was long lost by then - his three year peak was 2015-2017. So what did the Twins do after 2019? They signed Donaldson for a collective $92 million in 2020, then Cruz ($13.5 million) and Simmons ($10.5 million) in 2021, and Correa for a collective $105 million in 2022. It wasn't all standing in the soup line for the Twins during that period.
  6. arby58
    Right, I'd suggest there is some recency bias in play. The Baseball Trade Simulator has him 10th among Twins assets, slightly ahead of both BB and Lewis.
  7. arby58
    According to the Baseball Trade Simulator, the 'high end asset values' are Jenkins and Ryan (surplus of 53.9 and 52.5 respectively). They have Keaschall and Bradley also ahead of Lee, who checks in at number 5. I also tend to view that as a bit too high.
  8. arby58
    There are so many variables to weigh in coming up with an asset ranking like this - length of time to the majors versus there and years of team control, position of need, injury history, ceiing and floor, etc. It's a pretty subjective process. It's been interesting to compare these rankings to those from the Baseball Trade Simulator, which engages in a similar exercise for each MLB team's assets. They're higher than these rankings on both Tait and Zebby, about the same for Wallner and Lewis, and lower for Festa.
  9. arby58
    Give him a break for last year, with a hip injury. Besides, he's never thrown that hard but had good results. Lots of pitchers (see Joe Ryan for the Twins, Greg Maddox and Mark Buerhle elsewhere) do well without throwing more than 95 mph on average.
  10. arby58
    I do think that Ober gets undervalued, so I agree with Steamer. Interestingly, so does the Baseball Trade Value Simulator. It gives Ober a positive trade value of 21.0 - which is 9th highest among Twins assets. He's had some nice years, and last year was an injury-plagued year.
  11. arby58
    Nicely researched (or recalled). I'd forgotten about Herbie (and I'm old enough to remember his rookie year). He had an excellent 1982 for the Twins after being in A ball in 1981 - 591 PAs, 82 runs, 23 HRs, 92 RBI and an .848 OPS. The Twins would gladly take that from any of their up-and-coming rookies.
  12. arby58
    Assuming Kaelen Culpepper is with the Twins in 2026 (since he's not on this list), it seems highly unlikely/implausible that Houston debuts with the Twins in September 2026. When was the last time a Twins minor leaguer made the jump from high A one year to the majors the next? About the only one I can think of is Zebby Matthews, but the Twins starting pitching was decimated when that happened in late 2024.
  13. arby58
    It's hard for a pitcher to change mechanics in the middle of a season - particularly when you're also dealing with a nagging hip issue. My guess/hope is Ober/Twins staff are aware of this and will fiddle with things in the offseason or spring training.
  14. arby58
    He did - and the slugging percentage was similar from A+ to AA to AAA. Pretty impressive for 5'11" and 165 pounds.
  15. arby58
    A similar 'top 10' of Twins trades would be interesting. The Tovar trade was a good one, as was, obviously, the Cruz for Ryan trade. I'd still put the Pierzynski for Nathan, Liriano, and Bonser as number one. The Shannon Stewart trade was also excellent.
  16. arby58
    From the comments so far, a lot of wannabe commedians who definitely should not quit their day jobs.
  17. arby58
    Hope or hype or something in between? I'm not sold yet on Hill - far too many walks, and the step up to A+ wasn't pretty. A good year in 2026 at Cedar Rapids could change that, and he'll just turn 20 on Christmas day. Emma is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Can he ever stay healthy? Quite frankly, at this point, I'm more pumped by Gonzalez - IF he can repeat last year's performance, he should be at Target field later in 2026. Finally, there is Walker Jenkins. Agree he looks the part of a bona fide big league star, but the lack of HR power in the minors is something of a concern. At 6'3" 210 I would have expected more than 10 HRs last year (or 6 the year before). Still a lot of questions to be answered.
  18. arby58
    There was a similar column at the start of last season extolling the team's starting pitching depth and suggesting using that in a trade for a position player(s). Then Lopez and Ober went down, and then Festa went down . . . so much for starting pitching depth. Ober is coming off a poor year, his velocity is down, and he's 30 - he's not bringing anything back of note. Better for the Twins to work to bring him back to past form. I still don't understand the general disdain for SWR. Other than Ryan, he was their best starting pitcher last year - 22 starts, 4.04 ERA, 7-4 record, about a K per inning, and he's only 25 years old, inexpensive, and controllable. I don't care if he's out of options, I'm putting him in the starting rotation at the start of the year and keeping him there. As for the rest, they will necessarily need depth, and none of the others has stood out enough to get much in return anyway.
  19. arby58
    Steve Adams at Baseball Trade Rumors isn't high on Vientos. In a question in his mailbag from a Mets fan and 'trade, start, bench' for three players he responded: "I don't think any of the ...three (Vientos, Maurico, Acuna) are all that likely to be big league regulars, but I prefer Vientos' bat to the other two." Sort of damning with faint praise, as he finished with "Also doubt any of Vientos, Maurico or Acuna is more than a complementary part of trade package at this juncture. No one is giving up much to acquire them."
  20. arby58
    McCarty wasn't a kid in his first job - he was 23 years old his rookie year with the Twins. It's not like Kelly didn't give him a chance - he had 371 plate appearances his first year and produced a .542 OPS and 46 OPS+ for a -2.7 WAR. McCarty bounced around a lot - also played for the Giants, Mariners, Royals, Rays, A's, and Red Sox, and he missed two entire seasons. His first six MLB seasons, he never had an OPS+ higher than 79 - as a first baseman. As his manager, I wouldn't have liked him much either.
  21. arby58
    Actually, Duran was good right out of the gate. His first season was 2.0 WAR, 1.86 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 89 Ks in just under 67 innings. Nearly as good the next year as well. I'd take those stats for any first year relief pitcher every time. Jax' first year as a relief pitcher was also pretty good. He had a 1.0 WAR, 3.36 ERA, 1.051 WHIP, and 78 Ks in just over 72 innings.
  22. arby58
    Duran, Jax, and Varland are just the latest in a long line of Twins relief pitchers that were converted starting pitchers. Some of their stellar predecessors were Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguillera, Glen Perkins, Latroy Hawkins, and Joe Nathan. About the only decent 'relief pitcher only' pitchers they've developed in recent years were Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rodgers. They've got plenty of promising arms in the minors. My bet is on at least two of Raya, Festa, and Prielipp playing important roles in the bullpen.
  23. arby58
    This is a somewhat different debt story from what I have seen elsewhere, which is that the debt was largely from non-baseball real estate losses (albeit tied to COVID). As a finance professional, this seems more plausible - if the $300-$500 million debt is accurate, it would be hard to rack that up because of 'continuing to pay players and staff' during COVID. Yes, the lost TV revenue was an issue, but they also reduced payroll in the aftermath. I'm still betting a lot of the debt is non-baseball-related businesses.
  24. arby58
    That's simply not true - review the game logs. He played in 37 games. Game 2, 2/4; Game 6, 1/4; Game 10, 1/3; Game 11, 2/3; Game 12, 1/1; Game 15, 1/3; Game 16, 1/3; Game 17, 1/4; Game 18, 1/4; Game 23, 2/3; Game 25, 2/3; Game 26, 2/3; Game 27, 2/3; Game 30 1/4; Game 32, 1/4; Game 34, 2/3. Yes, he had a nice stretch games 23-27, but he also had a nice stretch games 10-15 and ok Games 30-34. He did finish the year on an 0 for 10 stretch, but what player hasn't?
  25. arby58
    Arraez had a .292 batting average last year, and a .327 OBP. OBP 'overcomplicates' things? That's nonsense logic - getting on base is a key part of scoring runs. Bell had a .237 batting average and a .325 OBP. In essence, they were on base about the same percentage of the time. Are you seriously suggesting that Arraez was as valuable offensively when 77% of his hits were singles, and only 4% were HRS, compared to Bell's 64% singles and 20% HRs? Math is beautiful too, and baseball has lots of math imbedded in it.
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