bunsen82

We are paying 21 million a year for an elite 3rd baseman who can hopefully give us a 5 war for each of those two years. If he does that, he has already earned the contract. I think he has the possibility of being a 3rd baseman all 4 years, playing on a regular field rather than the turf in Toronto. The other thing is the twins are likely to use load management with him. We have a great utility player in Gonzalez for this year. I would anticipate 125 to 130 games at 3rd, 10 to 15 DH days and the rest as days off. It should keep him fresher and healthier throughout the year. This type of load management could possibly get him through the entire contract at 3rd base similar to Adrian Beltre. If we can get anywhere close to the WAR production that Beltre had from his 34 to age 38 seasons this contract will be a steal. The question always is, when will father time begin to step in. For Beltre it was age 38, but he still posted a 3 war in year 38 and 1 war at 39.

The only thing the Twins have to consider is if Berrios would want to stay with the Twins long term. He could end up being a trade piece for another pitcher in the next year or two.

If the twins do have a trade in the works, my guess is they will just delay this signing to wrap up the trade. I am not sure if that is what is currently going on, but if we do not hear of any transactions I would guess this is a possibility.

Spycake, true, that was the only thing that was slightly off, but I did hedge that by saying the longer this goes the more likely he is a Twin. I would say as cash value goes the Twins were the high bidder by a reasonable amount. I don't believe we increased the offer, drastically, maybe adding 8 million in an essential an option year from a previous 92 million offer for for years, so Donaldson can say the contract is for a 100 million. My guess is this deal has been essential the same. My guess is Washington, which we know had an offer of 100 million was probably worth about 80 -85 million with deferred money. I am guessing Atlanta wasn't even close to 80 million. That was his preferred destination at the start of free agency, but money spoke and I think the Twins do show as a good opportunity and place that he can win at. I also think the Twins likely stated if you don't take our offer now, we are pursuing other opportunities and Atlanta was never willing to step up, and Washington had already essentially dropped out.

Not to gloat, but appears I was right on with my assessment. This is exactly how this played out.

They are only different in your mind based on the years of the deal and the amount of money. That does not mean that Minnesota will never be the high bidder on any other free agent, especially when the current league's use of the designated hitter, highly elevates the value of Donaldson for the Twins compared to the value the NL teams will have of Donaldson.

I see a lot of guessing and reading tea leaves, but nobody for certain as to what is happening.

Its the process of elimination. We know Atlanta is the low bidder, that leaves Washington and us. Just by the mere fact that Washington wants to defer money that likely leaves us as the high bidder. The twins also have an advantage with the designated hitter vs the other teams knowing they can get extended value from just purely the bat or giving Donaldson rest days from playing 3rd base by being DH unless the other teams would want to gamble that the NL will have the DH within 2 years. Many also forget we were the high bidders for Cruz last year. No one knows for certain, but most likely we are the high bidders in my mind.

So if you think Atlanta is the low bidder, then you think Washington is the high bidder? You do know that they would want to defer money so they would truly not be the high bidder with the time value of money. Minnesota is most likely the high bidder right now irrespective of previous bids this year. They were the high bidder for Cruz last year.

Cron had 17 home runs through June and then with the injuries was a shell of himself the rest of the year. However, Sano could easily be a 40-45 home run player if he can play everyday.

Bailey will be better than Perez. The version of Bailey prior to the last two months is much better than Perez was from May to September. The real improvement comes from can the splitter be a true pitch and is it possible Wes Johnson can gain a couple miles per an hour out of his fastball and make that a plus pitch. My gut feel is Bailey will be viewed as the best pitching signing at the end of the year. Ultimately though we will be looking for two more pitchers at minimum next year in free agency.

That is what I was implying, that if the braves or Washington just gets close he may take the lessor money.

I would say the Twins are the high bidder by a reasonable amount, and they feel comfortable that they will ultimately have the highest bid and get him. Ultimately I would say we are #3 on Donaldson's wish list so the money is going to have to win out. We will see but I think he will sign elsewhere. The longer this drags out, the better chance we have of signing him.

Tier 1 Pitcher Giolitto - Berrios Tier 2 Odorizzi Tier 3 Gonzalez Pineda Keuchel Tier 4 Rodan Dobnak Lopez Graterol (whichever other pitcher want to through in) I would maybe give the White Sox a slight edge on pitching right now, but I have a feeling our pitching will perform just as well as the White Sox or better in season. I would still take our relievers and our lineup over the White sox. They have made it closer, but are also using the good chunk of their cash chips up for the next couple of year. The Twins farm system is also quite a bit deeper and with more elite talent and ranked 8th vs 12th for the white sox.

Whether I have gone through the seven stages already, I have accepted where we are and think ultimately we are still in the best position for continued to success. Ryu was the one pitcher I really wanted, but it doesn't sound like the Twins were that interested. I do like that the Twins are being selective and to a certain degree getting deals they know they can win on. Doing the year to year deals will leave you in a lurch, and I question going into a season with only 2 solid mlb pitchers for the first month. That sounds like a recipe for disaster. There needs to be more work there. There is still potential to add bats to the lineup and possibly arbitrage Rosario, by trading him for a piece and then getting another RF bat such as Nicholas Castellanos who would fit being a younger player only 28. Im going to give it an incomplete at this point. Ultimately I would like for the Twins to be competitive for the next 10 years with 7 postseason births and 1 to 2 chances at winning it all. If they can set us up for that success, I could care less what path and what free agents they sign to get us there. They provided us more success that we expected last year so lets see what they do this year.

Exactly how? Both Hill and Ryu top out in the low 90s upper 80's on the fastball and are control pitchers looking for groundouts. Pretty similar to me. We would need to improve our defense to maximize Ryu. The last 2 years Ryu has greatly out performed his projected stats. If he is healthy don't you think he can do it again? Ryu has benefitted from 2 things, hitters trying to jack the ball out of the park on early pitches and getting ahead in the count and creating weak contact. He was top 3 in being ahead in counts last year. It changes slightly coming to the American League but more and more I think he could be our best hope at finding a true ace and at a relatively reasonable rate.

Is Ryu at 4 years really a dumb idea? If we lose out on a year or two of injury yes, or his stuff isnt as good as it has been the last year. I am really thinking Wes Johnson could be great for Ryu. Making him pitch in a better "kinetic or ergonomical way" limiting injuries, maintaining current velocity and possibly slightly increasing velocity. All this while his current pitch velocity and current pitches really shouldn't be putting as much stress on the body for injuries as what he has historically had. If Wes signs off, I think he could easily be a steal pitching well into his late years such as Rich Hill.

Unlike some I am not disappointed Yamaguchi didn't sign here. He would likely be an individual that would do well in April and early innings, but once batters became familiar and analytics delved in could be very hittable just like Kikuchi last year. He is very similar to Kikuchi but slightly different pitches, I believe Yamaguchi's best pitch is a splitter. Look at it this way, the Twins felt he was worth 3 million but Yamaguchi's camp wanted 4 million. The Twins were also interested in another pitcher who has similar stuff who the Twins had success with last year in Sergio Romo (both top out at 90 mph fastball), and they know his stuff works in MLB is Sergio Romo. I believe the Twins then said, we would rather put a little extra to get Sergio Romo instead, who I might add the Twins were not linked to until recently. I think this was an either/or situation, not that we would sign both. I think the Twins will pursue one more higher end RP dependent on if we sign a high end pitcher or Donaldson.

Okay these 2 trades are going to paired together whether you want to look at them separate or not. The initial trade by itself was a good trade for the Twins, you took a low A ball pitcher 19 years old and traded for a mid tier starter. You do that any day of the week. Then we get Littell back in the second trade with the Yankees who was rated much higher than Ynoa and Enns who had the possibility of being a back of the rotation starter. Ynoa got to AA last year, when the braves bullpen hit the skids. They brought up Ynoa for few innings of which he had an ERA of 18.00 (extreme small sample) while they tried to patch it back together. Ynoa is still a long ways off, and command is his issue not the raw stuff. Even with Littell being farther along, if you are going to project the two arms, Littell is going to be the more projectable arm. I also see the potential of having a Kintzler career or possibly slightly higher. Ynoa has the higher ceiling and if he hits has the ceiling of a closer. The odds of that happening, are higher than what they were back in 2017 but I would still say is only a 33% chance or less, he had a 5.3 ERA in both AA and AAA last year. Also he would have been a rule 5 so would have had to have been added to the 40 man this year. Me personally I don't think we have room for him. And if we didn't have Littell we would be looking for another RP on the FA Market.

I think the Twins will have to be a severe overpay if the angles or Dodgers offer a decent offer, possibly 5-7 million more per a year. That is why I said I would be willing to go as high as 28 million. If we can get him for less great, but we are not a current destination focus for him, we have to make him change his mind. I would be willing to go for it assuming Wes Johnson signs off.

We have at minimum $30 million available, that still has value for FA or potential trade targets. Ryu intrigues me especially with Wes Johnson. For his control and repetitive motion, his injury history is very high. He has not gotten through a full season since 2013, yet when he pitches, he is a top 3 pitcher. Where Wes can come in. Wes is big on pitching in an ergonomically correct method, that maximizes core strength and especially the legs and feet. I have a feeling Ryu for all his greatness, is also putting unseen stress on his arm and causing some of his other injuries although they have seemed to be a bit flukey. Wes can also determine whether changing the pitching motion slightly could be beneficial not only health wise but potentially add a mile or 2 per an hour to the fastball, get it in the 92mph range, or whether that will potentially increase his injury risk. Long run, Ryu can be successful as his stuff does not require an elite fastball to be effective. He is effective right now maintaining a 90 mph fastball, and 4 other pitches that he has elite command of 1-2 pitches, and good command on all others. It all comes down to his health and whether mechanically you can improve enough to get 160 or slightly more innings per a year for the next 3-4 years. Those odds don't sound great on the surface, but I think Wes could make this a very effective gamble if they were to go that way. I think I go a bit on the high side and offer 4 years at 28 million $112 total and see where the chips fall.

I think Twins management were hoping the market would be similar to the last couple years and they could get not only an elite starting pitcher, but also at a reasonable contract. That is what has worked the last couple of years, but not this year so far. The twins still have some levers they can pull, either sign Donaldson or as stated pick a pitcher they think they can rehabilitate. You also have the trade market and the ability to take on a bloated contract. Here are some options still on FA market Josh Donaldson Nick Castellanos Ryu Marcell Ozuna Dallas Keuchel Edwin Encarnacion Will Harris Teheran Daniel Hudson Avisail Garcia Dellin Bettances Rich Hill Pedro Strop There are some Outfielders, SP, RP (also a few not mentioned in the list), Donaldson who we are on but also a bit of a pipe dream. The rest can be worked in, either through a trade to create an opening or building up our pitching through the bullpen and one more decent starter. We are starting to get back into reasonable contract territory, shown by the bumgarner signing. Ryu likely prefers the west coast, but I think the twins could lure with a significant contract bump over other competitors. That could be a potential win for an elite pitcher , health though a major question. There is still plenty of good players still available and on the trade market that we can set this team up for success with what we already have and what is in the minors. I am honestly glad we don't have any of the contracts other than Bumgarner right now, because we wouldn't be able to compete with those contracts strangling us in future years.

At this point Betances, would be a big arm (health questionable) at a relatively reasonable price. Value wise, the twins have secured two of the more reasonable deals in Odorizzi and Pineda. Pineda 2 for 20 million 2019 ERA 4.01 pitched much better to end year Gausman 1 for 9 million 2019 ERA 5.72 granted for crap team, could show some improvement but no where near Pineda. Value for pitchers will come down in a month, but right now a lot more teams have money to spend. Best plan moving forward, trade for starters and/or trade for solid position players while taking on salary. Build up the bull pen, and Bettances is the best arm to do that with.

At this point I say sit back and wait. We got done the 2 deals that needed to be done, in Pineda and Odorizzi. I honestly thought the Odorizzi deal was a slight overpay for a year, but the way this free agency is going, that is looking like a very good contract. The Pineda deal just befuddles me. He should have gotten much more than 2 for 20. I think really the way this market is going 2 for 27.5 (essentially 2.5 off for the suspension). The market could continue to be crazy which I think it will be for the top starters. I think we will be happy that we were able to get Odorizzi and Pineda back by the end of the week. Cole will go for crazy money, I think Bumgarner will go close to 96 million and Ryu at 84 for 4. If there is a deal I would do its Ryu but that is a lot of money for a slightly unreliable arm. I think once we get to the middle tier there will be value again. Right now I just don't think is ripe to pick off a top line starter. An opportunity will come, likely through trade sometime this year (assuming we are still in contention) then we can use some assets to get the arm we want. I would get incremental value on free agent signings with one more SP and 2 more RP. I would do an infielder, but Falvey is playing coy and acting like we will fill that from within. We will see.

I can see 4/80 getting the deal done. With the draft compensation it lowers the potential compensation and I don't think there are as many suitors as there were for Wheeler for a variety of reasons.