bunsen82

Miranda and Steer for 3rd base next year, have nice insurance if one can't quite figure it out or if there is injury.

What was his OBP just over a week and a half ago - surprise surprise he was at .378. He has had a few poor games in June so far, OBP of .286 in 5 games. No offense but in a single game he could revert to the mean if he has a game like Arraez where he gets on base 4-5 times. Where is the crazy in that. You remove the small outliers and small sample sizes and things look decent. Yes I do think he will improve his bat. whether by getting stronger, whether the temps warm up and the ball starts to travel better, I do think he will get back on track. I am done with this thread as we both have obvious biases.

You are assuming Martin won't improve his bat, my baseline is Martin is .300 average hitter. I think it has underplayed as he is trying to hit more homers. One of 2 things happens, the power comes which boosts the average by those outs becoming hits, or he truly adopts the Arreaz method, essentially ignoring home runs and spraying balls all over the field and continue to get walks as he has an elite eye. You are willing to give the projection on Steer, but no projection on Martin - take that back you have a very negative projection lol. We can all have prospects and players we like. Honestly I could care less where Martin is ranked, it comes down to the type of player he can be for the Twins. I would love to have another Arreaz like player on the team.- even if it is a light version of him. 23 years old is still incredibly young.

Its his OBP - I have always loved players like him and Arreaz. If his OBP plummets fine, but if he remains a 380+ OBP player that is a top 20 OBP player every year in the big leagues. That has immense value especially as a table setter, and if you can't understand that, I don't know what to say. You are essentially basing your negative view point on 2 months. Talk about a small sample size. You need to let the season play out before you want to trade a player for 50 cents on the dollar or regulate him to a no longer useful prospect.

Average is essentially meaningless for the type of players Arraez and Martin are. Arraez may get a few more doubles, but Martin makes that up with stolen bases. .380 OBP players are players that teams build their teams around. I would be happy if Martin became a bit more of a slap hitter, right now it appears he is trying to become the power hitter Steer is by having many balls caught at the warning track. No offense but if pitchers start going after Martin he will be able to tee off. His bat especially during college has shown that. My guess is he ends up with 6-8 homeruns this year. We will see.

Below is Spencer Steer Stats. There is no hint of a home run hitter prior to 2021. Yes he missed 2020 where we may have started to see the progress but he got stronger, probably changed his swing a bit and now he is a quality Power bat. The 2018 and 2019 draft classes are the ones that are going to need to be protected this winter prior to rule 5 draft based upon their age. So Spencer Steer will need to be put on the 40 man. Austin Martin was drafted in 2020. The earliest would be next winter prior to the 2024 season. Honestly I think Martin takes off this summer and all your moaning is moot. Has he slightly underperformed, slightly but it hasn't drastically changed his stock. He will still be a top 3 prospect on any Twins prospect list. He may drop out of top 100 unless the rest of his year is outstanding. There is no reason to be sweating bullets over his value after 2 months of play. Let the Twins continue to work with him and we will see what the results are the rest of this year and next year. Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 2017 19 -1.2 Oregon P12 NCAA 54 230 191 23 50 12 3 2 35 4 2 18 24 .262 .357 .387 .744 74 6 13 3 5 2018 20 -0.3 Oregon P12 NCAA 53 233 189 30 52 11 1 4 37 4 3 24 31 .275 .381 .407 .788 77 3 12 2 6 2018 20 0.0 Orleans CCBL Smr 36 149 135 20 41 9 0 5 25 3 0 7 19 .304 .351 .482 .833 65 4 1 2 0 2019 21 0.5 Oregon P12 NCAA 56 261 215 40 75 13 1 6 57 6 2 30 33 .349 .456 .502 .958 108 1 14 0 2 2019 21 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-Rk MIN 64 296 250 40 70 18 3 4 33 5 2 34 33 .280 .385 .424 .809 106 3 10 0 2 0 2019 21 -0.3 Cedar Rapids MIDW A MIN 44 201 173 26 45 12 2 2 20 5 1 19 28 .260 .358 .387 .746 67 2 8 0 1 0 2019 21 0.5 Elizabethton APPY Rk MIN 20 95 77 14 25 6 1 2 13 0 1 15 5 .325 .442 .507 .949 39 1 2 0 1 0 2021 23 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-A+ MIN 110 488 417 82 106 18 3 24 66 8 4 55 105 .254 .348 .484 .833 202 6 9 0 7 1 2021 23 -1.1 Wichita AACN AA MIN 65 280 249 45 60 11 2 14 42 4 0 20 73 .241 .304 .470 .774 117 5 5 0 6 1 2021 23 0.5 Cedar Rapids HAC A+ MIN 45 208 168 37 46 7 1 10 24 4 4 35 32 .274 .409 .506 .915 85 1 4 0 1 0 2022 24 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-AAA MIN 48 219 192 40 56 16 1 14 45 1 3 20 34 .292 .374 .604 .979 116 3 6 0 1 1 2022 24 -2.5 St. Paul IL AAA MIN 13 63 55 13 14 3 0 6 15 0 0 6 11 .255 .349 .636 .986 35 2 2 0 0 1 2022 24 -0.2 Wichita TL AA MIN 35 156 137 27 42 13 1 8 30 1 3 14 23 .307 .385 .591 .976 81 1 4 0 1 0

Ok this all we need to know about your evaluation skills.

Even in college he wasn’t a home run hitter, it was all projection. 4 homers is rather small.

They are also 2 different styles of play, Martin plays more of a speed game than Steer. Also Steer wasn't a HR hitter until last year. Martin could potentially take off similarly later in the year. Martin is almost a year and half younger than Steer - and has been in the Twins Organization much less time obviously.

Injuries happen and the cream of the crop rises. I think they are working on his swing to get a tad more power and it hasn't quite worked out yet. If the average and OPS rises by the end of the year I can see a promotion to AAA especially if they settle on position, if not I am fine with him working on defense at AA. If you are willing to debase his value that much by a mediocre 2 months I can only imagine you must think we should just drop Balazovic from the 40 man already after his bad 2 months. Baseball is essential the long game - you can have pop ups, but ultimately previous stats are the most readily used for future performance. Steer and the other players have had longer in the Twins system to adjust. I am willing to wait. Look they could trade him, but they won't trade him for 50 cents on the dollar, they would want full value. If you are going to trade someone you trade a Steer who is at max value. I think I would rather see him play, or you trade a Kiriloff who is going bananas in AAA especially if you are concerned about his wrist. We have players and will be getting to a bit of a crunch. However he isn't at risk to the 40 man until the fall of 2023 if my math is correct, possibly 2024. We have ample time to continue to let him play and also for spots to open up. Outfield or utility are the likely destinations in my mind.

There is certainly a regression to the mean. I think he is still warming up, no different than say a Correa that is in the .700 range for the contract we are paying him. Luis Arreaz was a low .700 OPS last year, yet you love him this year? You like to take singular moments in time. How about take both age 22 season. He has been closer to .800 OPS throughout his career. No offense I don't take 2 months to look at a prospect and say what his likely ceiling would be. Or say we should trade him for 50 cents on the dollar thats just foolish. I don't care about OPS for his style of game, similar to Arreaz, especially if you add the steals into the game. Its not patently insane I think his OBP would be top 20 in MLB right now. Yes currently how he is playing would not, but his style of play over a longer time frame, I would fully see him being a top 20 OBP. I think the experiment at SS is messing with him personally. Look at Arreaz 2018 stats in AA, quite a bit paltry compared to what he currently is doing. Yes I am projecting, even still I am fully confident his bat plays in the MLB.

Here is the best way to comp him, He is Arreaz with what will likely be more speed and better defense. He is not impressing at SS as he has been a bit all over the place. I think his OBP will be between .375 and .420 in the big leagues. Essentially he would be a top 20 OBP machine if he were to come up to the big leagues now. No offense but that plays anywhere. I think he would be a top level left fielder for defense or utility infielder. If he is not impressing you offensively its because your probably focused on home runs. As to exciting plays he is up to 20 stolen bases. The real question is should the Twins try to continue to focus on SS defense with him, which if he does figure it out becomes a much more valuable trade chip, or backup for Lewis or whoever is our shortstop. If he finds a little power he is a top 20 offensive talent in the big leagues, again that is rarified air right there.

This is the first time in a long time where we can say we have a legit 40 prospects. You have always had that one prospect that has gotten hot and outperformed, but I truly believe we are going 40 deep right now, especially after the new draft. This should give the organization more ammo for trades, but I am fully of the opinion when teams are doing well it is easier to teach and get everyone to buy in because they can see the results. Currently we have better talent that is outworking their peers at most levels. It is already starting to affect the big league team. When you have a Palacios that can come up and fill in with great defense and an OK bat - that is excellent depth for 3rd or 4th option in your organization.

Unless the deal is too good to pass up you keep Martin. His bat and OBP is something that will really play well with our mashers. Him and Julien could be nice top of the order or bottom of the order guys. Martin is having a heck of season and his bat has never gotten hot. No offense that is the type of player that even when everything isn't going well still performs well will do well in the league. I preferably would like to see them consolidate prospects for better prospects. This trade deadline and the maneuvering with the 40 man to protect players this fall is going to be very interesting.

I am really looking forward to an updated Top 40 prospect list. Even with losing 4-5 that are no longer prospects, there are so many more that are having outstanding performances that were thought of merely as holding a spot. Caleb Hamilton, Isola, Palacios, Headricks, Mooney, Festa, Mikey Perez, Prato, Schulfer, Adams, Ohl Paredes, Fedko. Let alone all the more well known prospects that have continued to improve. You add in prospects that have really struggled like Cavaco and Holland that are really starting to flash, you have a farm system that is hitting on all cylinders. The pitching in AAA has been raided, but after the new draft there should be plenty of reinforcements.

Mooney is starting to look like a legit weapon. 10k's in 4 innings - in relief. I am not sure whether they are transitioning to relief work or just a piggy back start.

Just another ho-hum day on the farm. The bats are going bananas. I wonder if MLB is messing with the ball again, the offenses seem to be suddenly up. Steer, Strand, Sabato, Kiriloff and Hamilton were the standouts. Kiriloff and Steer are doing everything they can to get onto the big league roster.

The Twins might be a tad light on elite prospects, but their depth and progress this year is incredible. Both the 2019 and 2021 drafts appear to be very strong groups. Heck even Cavaco and Holland are beginning to flash. Right now I wait for this article to pop up more than anything else to see which players had a great game the previous night. Both the pitching and bats seem to be doing well.

When you read Mcdaniels article which is a pay article but you can read most of the information, with such a weak first round, this is going to be a draft where players will be picked all over the board under slot to make sure there is money to go over slot later in the draft specifically round 2-3. I think any of the top 3 catchers will be in play. You could see any of the 3b/OF/SS bat. maybe they surprise and take a high school pitcher or one of the injured pitchers at an under slot agreement. They have shown they are not afraid to draft injured players. The baseball drafts are always a crapshoot and I would say even more so this year. It will most likely be someone who hasn't been mentioned up to this point.

What is my guess, well just look at past drafts. They love to draft SS, but with the depth in the Org a SS - I lean towards an elite C (lack of elite depth), or elite bat either outfield or other position. Unless there is a #1 pitching prospect they see, which I currently don't unless you take one of the injured players, you do their continued method of loading up on bats in the early rounds through around round 4 and then start pounding on pitchers that fit their mold (college, ideally tall, has elite curve or change up, is someone can add velocity to and has some elite peripherals). This will also be a draft where we will try to save up money to get an extra high level pick in the later rounds.

Lets slow down fella. Noah Miller is looking good and smooth, I think it is a little early to say he will supplant Lewis. I am just glad the Twins have options at short, and Palacios and Holland appear to be helping that depth. Cavaco appears to still be MIA. Steer is demolishing the pitching at whatever level he his at. We will have a nice competition between him and Miranda and possibly Urshela for 3rd base next year. I don't think Steer will be the trade bait, but he could be. I think they would prefer to utilize prospects in the 10-30 range for relief help.

We raided AAA on pitching. Winder, Smeltzer, Sands. Then again Balazovic is imploding in AAA. In general with pitching due to injuries and just the current point of prospects, AAA was our weak spot in the organization for pitching. It will get better. Not all of these pitchers are going to pan out, some will flame out, but I can guarantee we have a few more Winders that will well exceed our expectations when we drafted them.

There are a couple things they lookfor from what I can gather. They prefer tall pitchers but are willing to look at all pitchers that have good control and pound the strike zone, They then look for a secondary pitch that is a plus pitch. The third thing they look for is good peripherals such as k/9 and k/bb. Then project what velocity they can add to these players. We now have 10-12 arms drafted after round 5 for the 2018-2021 drafts that all have a shot at the big leagues. What this front office is doing in the drafts is remarkable. That Covid year set us as much back on our draft strategy along with all the other implications. This isn’t a blind squirrel finding a nut, they are succeeding and doing it regularly with draft prospects that in general should be minor league fodder for a year or two.

Add Paredes as another college late round draft pick to start to keep an eye on. It seems like every week we have another pitcher pop up who is doing incredible things in the minor leagues.

I don't think we will ever get back to the timeframe where your starter is averaging 7 innings a game like Jack Morris in 1991. You need 4-5 solid relievers in todays game. The game has changed quite a bit since 1987 and 1991. If you have a pitcher throwing consistently in the 6-7 inning range you have the chance at increased injury, and this current SP staff other than Gray hasn't shown the ability to pitch over 150 innings in a season in the last 3-4 years.