bean5302

Not sure why there's such a strong debate on how great Goldschmidt is going to be since he's going to cost more than the Twins will pay. Goldschmidt has run an xwOBA extremely similar to his actual wOBA across his career and his xwOBA was .333 last year, which is 23pts higher than his actual numbers. Goldy also finished the season strong with a .271/.319/.480 wRC+ 120 2nd half and he had solid exit velocity (top 8% in hard hit rate) and barrel rates across the season. All things considered, Goldy was probably a wRC+ 120ish hitter last year without luck issues, and there's good reason to believe he'll be well above average at the plate. Of course; doesn't matter since the Twins are not going to be in the running at Goldschmidt's price tag. I also don't think Goldschmidt would be remotely interested in coming to the Baldelli Broken Macro show where he'd have the crap platooned out of him and only get 400 PA max because he's not a switch hitter, and everybody knows platooning is a concrete guarantee for success.... ahem. Finally, like @DJL44 is saying, I'm not sure he'll be more valuable overall than Miranda at 1B (though we have no DH so there's that issue, too, LOL)

By my estimates, the Twins have about -1MM in payroll capacity this coming year. The Twins outbidding the market for Goldschmidt seems like a pipe dream to me. Considering the recent performance for the two players, I'd be awfully surprised to see Goldschmidt under $10MM, and I'd also be surprised if the Cardinals didn't try to bring him back at a figure like that. a38 (2024) Carlos Santana bWAR 3.0*, (0.1), 1.1, 2.7 fWAR 2.1*, (0.8), 0.9, 1.5 *Multiplied by 2.7 to adjust for season length. a37 (2025) Paul Goldschmidt bWAR 6.0, 7.7, 3.4, 1.3 fWAR 4.8, 6.8, 3.4, 1.1

Let's model it. BaseballTradeValues.com has a value from Dec 2022 for Jhoan Duran which I've included below. There are no recent Duran trade proposals and I don't pay for a subscription so we're going to have the hash some estimated value out by hand. Baseballtradevalues projects salary and pretty close to expected WAR x 8 or AFV. They then subtract future salary from the AFV to determine surplus value (trade value). We'll use the future salary generated by https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/ the method described in Fangraphs' table for relief pitcher to determine salary, and I'll project the year's fWAR forward. Dec 2022 Duran value = 37.0 (29.6 to 44.4)<--- this is where you trade Duran for a potential "haul" Oct 2023 Duran value =21.8 (17.4 to 26.2) Now 2024 Duran value =15.2 (12.1 to 18.2) 2023 calc 1.1 WAR * 4 = 4.4 * 8 = 35.2 AFV - (0.8MM + 2.1MM + 4.4MM + 6.1MM) = 13.4MM 2024 calc 1.2 WAR * 3 = 3.6 * 8 = 28.8 AFV - (2.1 + 4.8MM + 6.7MM) = 13.6MM Duran was probably worth "more" in a trade at the end of last year, but not really worth mentioning in the grand scheme of things. Probably an org #4/6 vs. an org #6/8 or something like that. If you wanted a top prospect or a big haul, Duran needed to be moved after 2022.

Why perform this comparison exercise if you're not going to follow the format of the original? The Twins have 31.2 bWAR this year, yet only 26.4 are in your image which is a loss of about 16% of data. Also, the method you used to supercharge the credit the front office gets for developing players doesn't appear to be used in the original design so the models aren't comparable. https://www.mlb.com/news/how-the-2024-mlb-playoff-teams-were-built Using 85% of the Twins value all on their own with a unique formula is sorta neat, but not relevant to any discussion of the team.

Nobody is that bad. No group of players are that bad. Their record was literally worse than you'd expect a complete AAA team to have at the MLB level (45-117). The White Sox need a mental gut-check and reverse that atmosphere, but I don't think that's coming after their horrible owner went full on cronyism in his GM promotion of Chris Getz. That organization needed to totally, utterly, completely clean house. Fire everybody. Burn it to the ground. It was obvious to everybody there was nothing to save. I honestly feel bad for White Sox fans. They're going to be absolutely terrible for a couple years.

Canterino was added to the 40 man in 2022 to as he was going to be eligible for the Rule 5. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Twins DFA him and expose him to Rule 5 this year. A claiming team needs to keep a Rule 5 pick on the 26 man all year, and Canterino is entering his age 27 season with zero experience above AA. As @DJL44 pointed out, he's never pitched more than 37 innings in a professional season, and he was drafted in 2019. In fact, he's only even got one option left. Canterino's shiny 1.83 ERA and 3.15 FIP in AA way back in 2022 came with an absolutely terrible 5.77 BB/9 (15.3%) so there's plenty of reason to wonder whether or not Canterino's stuff would even play at a higher level like AAA or MLB where hitters will force him to throw strikes. Basically, even if it wasn't for the shoulder injury which wiped out Canterino's entire 2024 after the elbow injury which wiped out his entire 2023 and most of his 2022... and most of his 2021, it's tough to say whether or not Canterino has the arsenal necessary to succeed at a big league level.

The Twins have no rights to alter the relocation clause. It'd be like saying part of the negotiation was the guarantee of good weather for every Twins home game. Beyond that, MLB owners wouldn't approve the sale or the move if there was a relocation involved. Your scenario isn't realistic for a number of reasons, even with a strong dose of anti-billionaire cynicism.

Duran has very low trade value after this year? 2023 = 3.21 FIP, 81.4% SV, 1.1 fWAR 2024 = 2.85 FIP, 91.3% SV, 1.2 fWAR There are some indications Duran wasn't as dominant this year as last, but his FIP and save rate were both quite a bit better than last year. His average velocity was right in line with 2022 as well. I'd imagine Duran's value is probably just about the same as it was.

If we use Stuff+ to isolate the pitches themselves rather than their location or sequencing or the handedness of the opposing batters. Narrowing it to pitches used more than 5% of the time. Worst pitches by the starters: 4 Seam Fastball = SWR 71 2 Seamer/Sinker = Louie Varland 94 Cutter = Bailey Ober 84 Splitter = Joe Ryan 101** Slider = Chris Paddack 71 Curve = Pablo Lopez 92 Changeup = Chris Paddack 72 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland 115*, ** Worst pitches by the relievers 30+ IP: 4 Seam Fastball = Steven Okert 71 2 Seamer/Sinker = Cole Sands 76 Cutter = Kody Funderburk 92 Splitter = Cole Sands 111 Slider = Steven Okert 116 Curve = Cole Sands 102 Changeup = Steven Okert 58 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland 115*, ** *Don't have breakdowns between as starter and as reliever. **Only pitcher who throws the pitch.

If we use Stuff+ to isolate the pitches themselves rather than location or sequencing Best pitches by the starters: 4 Seam Fastball = David Festa 107 2 Seamer/Sinker = Joe Ryan 110 Cutter = Zebby Matthews 96 Splitter = Joe Ryan 101 Slider = Joe Ryan 126 Curve = Zebby Matthews 107 Changeup = Bailey Ober 116 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland* 115 Best pitches by the relievers 30+ IP: 4 Seam Fastball = Jhoan Duran 121 2 Seamer/Sinker = Jorge Alcala 119 Cutter = Cole Sands 96 Splitter = Jhoan Duran 146 Slider = Griffin Jax 170 Curve = Griffin Jax 151 Changeup = Jorge Alcala 116 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland* 115 *Don't have breakdowns between as starter and as reliever.

The Twins lease at Target Field doesn't expire until 2040, and it explicitly forbids the Twins from relocating. They're not moving until at least very close to 2040, if they would be allowed to break the lease at all (which they weren't with just one year left at the Metrodome).

Varland doesn't have any truly great pitches, but he's got some stuff which is above average, and those pitches have played up out of the 'pen. It's tough to say how he'll fare. I don't think Varland is going to be the next Griffin Jax or Ryan Pressley, both of whom had great sliders to begin with. My hope for Varland would be mid 3s out of the 'pen as all of his average-ish stuff plays up a little bit with an extra 1-2mph behind it. Even though Varland has a much higher K rate out of the 'pen, he still gives up a ton of very loud contact.

I'm not sure what you're hearing? https://www.12news.com/article/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/how-to-watch-arizona-diamondbacks-games-tv-and-streaming-2024-season/75-c5b07291-9bd7-4d7c-b308-13719ef2d0b7 The Diamondbacks are an example of how this has worked. Don't have/want cable? Stream the games for $19.99/mo. You do have and want cable? Watch the games as part of your cable package (just like it was in previous years for the Twins).

The realistic price tag is easier when the owners are in a rush to sell like the Fred Wilpon essentially being forced to sell the Mets due to liquidity issues, and Peter Angelos starting to heavily market the Orioles shortly before his death. There is no real "need" for the Pohlad family to sell so far as I know. That would place them more into the Arte Moreno and Lerner family category. Still, the Pohlad's are probably more committed to a potential sale. The Lerner family was divided on selling the Nationals so it makes sense the necessary offer would have needed to be higher to meet their requirements, like a team trading away a highly valued contributor. Arte Moreno is one of the owners who gets deep into the front office side of things meddling around so I think he's probably more attached to the Angels, which also probably inflated any potential selling price. I don't get the feeling there are those conflicts in the Pohlad family.

1) Championship Upside - Nobody cares. 2) Respected Front Office - Nobody cares. 3) Target Field Premier Destination - This is a negative. 4) Growth Opportunity - This one is an important plus. 5) Sports Support - This one is a plus. 6) Owning a sports franchise is prestigious. - This is a huge plus. Buyers are going to be looking for teams which are cheap, and nearing the end of their lease. Owners of stadiums usually make a killing on real estate around the stadium. The new stadium sparks off development in the area, and the franchise owner knows ahead of time where the stadium is likely to be built so the franchise owner front-runs the market, purchases undesirable properties near the new venue only to turn a massive profit after the new stadium is built and the property then becomes desirable. Wilf already bought the properties around the old Metrodome site, and once that happened, the stadium location was essentially locked into place. A potential buyer is going to want a return on investment, but they're going to have to do it with putting fans into the seats, and national exposure with a purchase of the Twins. That's way harder than buying a team that needs a new stadium where you can just generate wealth through forcing a local government to build a new stadium to spark off a new neighborhood filled with huge value growth.

Carl Pohlad would have created more "generational wealth" putting the $44M (not $144MM) into a Stock Index Portfolio than by owning the Twins in terms of their market value as reported by Forbes this year. In fact, investing $44MM into a Stock Index fund would now be worth over $3B today.

I don't know Carl Pohlad. In fact, I don't know any of the Pohlad family, and I don't care about them any more than another random person on the street. I do know Carl Pohlad received 3 purple hearts, 2 bronze stars and an oak leaf cluster in WWII for valor and conduct. I do know he saved the Twins from being moved to St. Petersberg, FL before most of the people posting stuff about him were born, and he ran the team like he said he would. I do know his ownership brought 2 World Series Championships to the Twins, which are the only championships in one of the major 4 sports Minnesota has ever won. There's also the fact he was involved in baseball's contraction plan which would have contracted the Twins, and he clearly tried to manipulate the public into building a new stadium to stave off a North Carolina sale which was extremely unlikely to ever happen. He also engaged in legal, but underhanded business practices which landed him in hot water, politically. There's a difference between criticizing people based on truthful information versus spreading blatant misinformation to try and destroy them publicly. Doing the latter weakens the credibility of anybody doing the former in my opinion. Also, this topic was labeled "reflecting on the positives."

Seems to be they were "okay" but not really good in terms of results. FIP really liked them, though... 5th in fWAR in all of baseball last year 19th in ERA 19th in WPA 16th in Innings 11th in Wins (35) 23rd in Losses (31) Combined the bullpen's W-L record was an 86 win pace (.530)

Pitching+ uses the actual pitch, the location, and additional situational data when the pitch was thrown. It's not a value which tells you how good the pitch itself is. If you wanted to know how good a pitch is, you should be using stuff+ https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer/

Fisher has been a gift to the Athletics who have a lousy fanbase and a terrible local government. The Athletics should have moved 20 years ago. There's a reason Oakland used to have 3 major sports franchises and now has none.

Myths and legends. I hate this kind of stuff because it's nothing more than rage-induced character assassination using twisted information. He was born in 1915 and grew up dirt poor helping his mom wash laundry to put food on the table. The great depression started in 1929 when Pohlad was 14. He spent a couple years working as a go-fer for a bank where he did small time tasks around the office and he delivered collection letters, but by the time he graduated in 1933, he had been recruited across the country to play college football. You think he owned the bank when he was in high school...

Carl Pohlad and the Pohlad brothers have always been considered generous and good people to those who know/knew them. They have also been very philanthropic in Minnesota, and they have provided a lot of stability to the franchise so I do think that's worth something as well. The Pohlad's have certainly been better owners than a few who controlled Minnesota Franchises... Norm Green, Red McCombs, Calvin Griffith, Glen Taylor (IMHO)... I don't think there's any doubt in my mind the ownership could have sold the team in the mid-2000s and that a move would have followed and been successful had ownership abandoned MSP. Owners can't be expected to lose money, and the Twins had been trying for over 15 years to get a new stadium. That's generally past the limits before a sale/move actually occurs IMHO. There has been some success, and the Twins' ownership hasn't been cheap at the level of the Guardians, Pirates, Marlins or terrible owners who foolishly inject themselves into the roster operations of a franchise like the Rockies or Angels. They just haven't been an aggressive ownership group looking to grow the brand and hold upper management accountable for failure. It's ironic, they're not great businessmen in that sense, but they keep pointing to the need to run the team like a business. Overall, I'd put the Pohlads as maybe lower mid-tier. You know what you're going to get. A generally competitive team during the regular season, but without the true investment to be a World Series threat.

Larnach is a cheap, passable every day outfielder right now, and the Twins are already very short on legitimate outfield depth. Since Larnach isn't going to bring back an MLB ready prospect or even a higher end prospect with a chance at MLB in the next couple years, I just can't see the logic in trading him unless you're going to exchange a cheap, young-ish, passable, RH corner outfielder for Larnach, and there just aren't any.

I'm just working with that the Twins roster currently looks like. Any "prospect" which is on the 26 man makes the depth thinner, but the Twins need to replace 3 infielders (Farmer, Castro, Santana) from this year somehow. When it comes to Luke Keaschall making the 26 man (no way he gets added to 40 man without getting a corresponding call up since he's not rule 5 eligible until 12/2026) after 58 games at AA seems like a desperation move by Minnesota. Gordon AA - a22, 42G .333/.381/.525 wRC+ 153 - Washed out at MLB Julien AA- a23, 113G .300/.441/.490 wRC+ 144 - Washing out at MLB Keaschall AA - a22, 58G .281/.393/.439 wRC+ 138 Lee AA - a22 87G, .292/.365/.476 wRC+ 120 - Washing out at MLB As far as the outfield, I think Kirilloff + Rooker + Larnach + Martin was just as good if not better depth, though the Twins were desperately trying to make Martin into a SS at the time.

Not to mention Larnach doesn't have much trade value. No options, arb eligible, defensively limited capping him at 2 WAR seasonal value. Maybe a surplus value of 10? Not getting an organization top 5 prospect... maybe not even a top 10 for him. Just good enough to play every day so long as he's cheap.