bean5302

If the front office feels Prielipp needs to be restricted at high school inning levels (55-60 innings) even in good health, I don't see the Twins working him out as a starter at all. Since the Twins had Prielipp starting and pitching multiple innings last year, it doesn't suggest they see him that way. He is not a 2-3 pitch mix guy. He's a 3 pitch guy with all three profiling as potential plus offerings which is why the Twins want him to start. A good starter is worth 3-4x as much as a good reliever. I don't think we're going to find any common ground on the rest of your arguments.

If Prielipp remains healthy. If Prielipp absolutely dominates AA through the All Star break If Prielipp gets promoted to AAA soon after that If Prielipp then dominates AAA into September If Prielipp impresses the coaching staff and front office with his stuff, as much as his results If Prielipp is approaching his innings limit If Prielipp isn't wearing down at that point and if the Twins are in a position where they're coasting (either way out of the playoffs or way in) or the Twins aren't desperate for an arm Then, yes, Prielipp might be in the 'pen for Minnesota. ...that's a lot of ifs, and the results part is certainly not guaranteed for a guy who has just 23 innings at A+, and that was more than he's pitched in a season since high school in 2019. My hopes for Prielipp is a healthy season where he can earn a promotion to AAA and exceed 80 innings. That would be an incredibly successful season already.

Keeping Canterino on the 40 man says as much about the Twins' system as it does Canterino.

You should go and play the lottery. People win it all the time!

I don't think Festa will ever be an efficient starter. He doesn't have any pitches which are truly "plus" right now in regard to movement and velocity, and he doesn't have a big mix of offerings to keep hitters off their toes so playing too much in the zone is going to get his stuff hard launched around the ballpark. He's got a borderline plus pitch in his slider, and Festa's been able to locate and sequence his pitches to get whiffs outside the zone, and thereby avoid damage.

I don't know why the writers of this site create fringe narratives, and then push those narratives until they become accepted as fact or likely to happen scenarios. Connor Prielipp is not going to be in the bullpen next year. The Zebby Matthews scenario was so extreme, it actually brought an unranked prospect for the Twins??? to national attention. Guys don't go from A+ to MLB directly. Prielipp pitched 19.1 innings in Cedar Rapids last year. It wouldn't surprise me if he started the season off at Wichita next year, but we've seen how the Twins handle injury prone, high ceiling, young starting pitching prospects (Marco Raya). It's a slow build starting with 3.0 inning starts, just like we saw with Raya last year (and progressed to by Prielipp), and I suspect Prielipp will see 3.0 inning starts out of the gate this coming year, then start building to 4.0, then 5.0 inning starts with a pitch count limit of 50, then 60, then 80. Of course, the buildup only continues if he's able to stay healthy. It feels highly unlikely the Twins will reverse the approach and have Prielipp pitch 5.0 innings out of the gate, then swap him to the bullpen to limit his innings while simultaneously moving him through AA and AAA all the way to MLB along the way. That's assuming Prielipp doesn't have a hiccup against dramatically superior competition at AA or AAA. Prielipp in the Twins' bullpen seems so dramatically far fetched at least before the end of the season right now it doesn't even bear discussion, IMHO. Morris looks like a guy who could be a contributor to the rotation mid year, but I'm skeptical Raya is in that boat. Morris was solid at AAA, but his FIP/xFIP was in line with ace Randy Dobnak's. Competition at the AAA level turned quite a few Morris strikeouts into walks. Morris will need to improve his K rate or reduce his BB rate to project into the MLB rotation. I expect Matthews will start the season in AAA as well, and the Twins will probably be seeking to add a depth veteran arm (or two if they can move Paddack). Raya had major problems issuing the free pass towards the end of the season with his strikeout rate also dropping once Raya started getting the opportunity to pitch a little longer. I think he's still a big bullpen candidate even though the front office finally gave the green light to exceed 50-60 pitches.

The front office is responsible for evaluating talent, and they failed miserably. Period. Rooker would have been the best player on the Twins last year by a mile. The only situation Rooker needed was consistent plate appearances. The Padres had no room on the roster for Rooker so he was in AAA where he put up a wRC+ 137. The Royals thought they could pass Rooker through waivers despite his wRC+ 206 because of Rooker's age and reputation damage from the Twins view on him, deeming Rooker less valuable than AAAA studs like Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff. The Twins already trashed Rooker's value by giving up on him too early (which just goes to show how valuable reputation and prospect rankings really are to a player).

Fastball avg = 95 Changeup avg = 88 Slider avg = 86 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/david-festa-701581?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

100% agreement. It's part of the issue with all the "trade Vazquez" articles/posts. I really wish the Twins would have given Farmer some time behind the dish this spring since he was drafted as a catcher, and he was starting games at catcher just a few years ago. It might have really changed the situation.

Dennys Reyes? That's the only name that comes to mind.

The changeup is a pretty bad pitch as it doesn't move, and if he throws it for strikes, it'll end up in the outfield bleachers. He needs batters to continue to chase it out of the zone where they can't barrel it up. The slider is a good pitch and it might have a little ceiling left.

I just didn't understand what your argument was so I was seeking clarification. Camargo wasn't worthless because I think the Twins felt he was a known commodity amounting to "not a horrible option for a few weeks if Vazquez or Jeffers gets hurt and he doesn't cost us really anything" when everybody else the Twins had in the minors was "OMG, if we lose Camargo to Rule 5 somehow we're really in dire straights so we'll have to sign somebody for more money we don't have or trade assets to acquire a depth guy we trust enough, but don't really want to play" Camargo provides cheap insurance against a relatively short term injury and saves money or prospects to acquire depth. Hopefully just MiLB roster filler, but in a pinch, better than a catastrophe. You're right about how poorly the front office planned for catcher development.

No teams in MLB do this (probably for a host of reasons), and the commissioner is actively trying to implement rules to prevent this from ever happening. Having less than 5 days of rest for starters has also been correlated as a risk factor for injury. Considering the injury concern environment for MLB and pitching right now, I think this would be a very hard sell, before even considering the potential gains or losses in performance from the implementation. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39292010/ Conclusions: Starting pitchers on MLB teams averaging > 5 rest days between starts spent less time on the IL for MSK injuries than MLB teams averaging < 5 rest days from 2022 to 2023. There was no clinically significant difference in pitch count and no significant difference in the number of IL assignments for MSK injuries.

Christian Vazquez playing LF would have more than replaced Eddies production last year. It's real hard to get -2.0 WAR in just half a season, LOL.

Back to Festa. A lot of his projection depends on how much you believe in his changeup. Location probably isn't going to save him in general as he's already solid there. Location+ has him at 101 where MLB average is 100, and that's a major help already. Pitching Bot grades Festa's changeup as solid 54 on a 20-80 scouting scale, but it includes location, movement and other factors. The most important piece of Festa's changeup last year was making sure he did not throw it for a strike. Stuff+ isolates the pitch all on the physical attributes of the pitch compared to other pitch offerings Festa has, and it grades Festa's changeup at 72 where 100 is MLB average because the changeup has lousy movement. Based on what I've seen, on a 20-80 scouting scale, that's about a "35" which is borderline MLB caliber. Stuff+ grades Festa's fastball at 107 (50-55 grade or MLB average), and Festa's slider at 118 (55-60 grade, borderline plus) There were 156 starters who pitched at least 70 innings last year in MLB. The #10 (top), median (mid) and 10th worst (bottom) were added to Festa's results for reference. Data from Statcast, except first pitch strike. Source Fangraphs.com Festa's percentage of pitches in the zone was 47.5% - Top = 55.8%, Mid = 51.3%, Bottom = 46.5% "Balls" where batters swung was 32.1% - Top = 33.1%, Mid = 28.9%, Bottom = 24.1% "Strikes" where batters swung was 66.5% - Top = 61.5%, Mid = 66.1%, Bottom = 70.4% Outside zone contact rate was 54.1% - Top = 47.6%, Mid = 57.6%, Bottom = 68.1% In strike zone contact rate was 83.9% - Top = 80.8%, Mid = 86.3%, Bottom = 90.0% First pitch strike rate was 63.9% - Top = 72.9%, Mid = 63.0%, Bottom = 57.6% Festa's pitching profile, and how batters have reacted to it basically looks like this. Festa operates in the zone much less than most pitchers, but that has worked for him so far because batters swing (and miss) at Festa's offerings outside the zone well better than average. When Festa enters the strike zone, batters offer at his pitches at an average rate, but they still struggle to put the ball into fair territory relative to the average pitcher out there. Festa has been good with working ahead in the count right off the bat as well. Festa probably doesn't have much room for error as he is now. With Festa's changeup having poor movement or potential growth, it'll turn into a meatball if thrown in the zone as evidenced by the fact it has negative values despite being by far his best strikeout pitch. Festa's been successful with the pitch because batters have chased it well out of the zone with the limited scouting reports so far. Festa stands to gain a legitimate plus pitch with his slider if he's able to improve his feel for it. Right now, it's not as consistent as it should be in terms of total movement. Next year will be critical for him as it will likely determine whether or not he can hold his own as a starter or he's destined for the bullpen. If batters stop offering at Festa's changeup outside the zone, he's toast.

Kirilloff couldn't be swapped for a Snickers bar right now, let alone a legitimate, 25 year old starting pitcher. These "lets trade our garbage to another team for their quality stuff" is fascinating. As if the other team is run by a drooling, lobotomized, moron "Urrrhhhhhhh, you trade me bad at job no hitter always hurt man for cheap good start future man? You friend! We trade!" That's now how it works.

I'm not sure what you're getting at here? Camargo has never been a good hitter, and he's never been a good graded defender. Camargo was MiLB depth roster filler with some long-shot ceiling, a toss in in the Kenta Maeda trade. Even 2023's campaign. While the triple slash might look shiny, Camargo's .259/.323/.503 OPS .826 line was only good for a wRC+ 100 in the hitter friendly AAA International League. It also came with a 32% K rate. Camargo was considered a fringe 40 man guy, but Camargo was 23, the Twins had scarily thin MiLB depth at the position. If Camargo was at any other position or the Twins had any depth in the upper minors, Camargo doesn't get a 40 man spot. It was pure injury insurance against Jeffers or Vazquez going down for a month or two, no longer, no shorter. I think you've convinced yourself Jair Camargo was viewed as more than roster filler or short/medium term emergency depth in a very thin position. Had Jeffers or Vazquez gone down with an injury which would have put them on the 60 day IL, the Twins would have acquired a different catcher almost immediately, IMHO. Camargo was not viewed as a legit backup as evidenced by the fact the Twins shielded him from any playing time as much as possible.

Please stop just making stuff up. 1. Martin wasn't signed by the Twins. He was acquired with Simeon Woods Richardson in the trade of Jose Berrios. At the time, Martin was universally accepted as a top prospect. In fact, he ranked as a top 50 overall prospect in MLB. 2. Scouts were divided on whether Martin would wind up at 2B or CF long term. He was not considered a bad outfielder by anybody. 3. The Twins pushed Martin at SS hoping his athleticism would make up for the shaky arm there because SS is a super premium defensive position which maximizes player value. 4. The Twins play all of their prospects at multiple positions as part of the team's commitment to positional flexibility. Martin was permanently moved off SS because of a sprained UCL.

That is misleading no matter how much bold or all caps shouting you use. First of all, Martin wanted to play SS. Falvey actually sat down with him in the 2021-2022 offseason and talked about it. Martin was likely to be given the opening day SS duty for 2022 with Kyle Farmer brought in as a failsafe before the Twins stunned MLB by signing Carlos Correa. Btw, Martin hasn't played a single game at SS in two years. While the Twins might have deployed Martin at SS in 2023, a sprained UCL made the hard throws required from the far side of the infield dangerous, and that pretty much ended Martins career at SS. Once Martin returned from "rest and rehab" on his UCL, the Twins deployed him at 2B and OF. Second, Martin has pretty much always played a significant number of games in the outfield, all the way back into college. college 2018 - 1B 18 games, LF 15 games, CF 13 games, 3B 9 games, Catcher 4 games, SS 2 games 2019 - 3B 51 games, 2B 13 games, 1B 4 games 2020 - CF 12 games, 3B 4 games -------------------------------------------- pro 2021 - CF 46 games, SS 43 games, 2022 - SS 84 games, CF 19 games, 2B 7 games, LF 1 game, RF 1 game 2023 - 2B 39 games, LF 14 games, CF 12 games, SS 0 games

2023 Popkins was told to make all the hitters hit home runs, who cares about strikeouts? He very successfully did that. The all or nothing Falvey approach failed against disciplined veteran teams. 2024 Popkins was told strikeouts are now bad so hitters need to completely rework their approach at the plate. Now focus on optimized contact at every plate appearance, and Popkins got those results. Popkins gets fired because the Twins' offense tanked down the stretch with a poorly constructed roster, and he immediately gets hired by the Blue Jays because Popkins gets the results the front office asks for... 2025 The Twins put Borgschultes in at hitting coach and want to focus on situational hitting. I can't say Popkins is a great or a bad hitting coach. It just seems to me he got exactly the results the front officed asked him to produce, and that's pretty damned impressive.

I don't have any real issue with the Twins' bullpen over this season. The Twins went with a very talented core. Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart. Stewart was predictably injured, but the talent was there at the top. Behind them is middle relief. I'm not sure how good people expect "middle relievers" to be as they're a dime a dozen out there as evidenced by how they get paid. The aging, but as reliably solid as a lefty reliever could be, Caleb Thielbar, was brought back in case Kody Funderburk didn't pan out. Fortunately, it was a good call to protect against a Funderburk meltdown. Unfortunately, Thielbar melted down in a way nobody expected. Coming off his previous 4 years of 179 games pitching 174.0 innings, Thielbar owned a very good 3.21 ERA and 3.16 FIP. A span of years where his ERA had never been above 3.49, and his FIP had never exceeded 4.46 over a full season. The bullpen was universally praised despite being very cheap. The entire bullpen cost about $13.5MM out of the gate. Minor roster shuffling throughout the year probably had the bullpen close to $15MM, and they delivered 6 WAR for that. The bullpen was not the problem last year. Lopez being terrible for 1/2 the year, and other rotational gambles by Falvey along with a manager who lost the team and a inconsistent hitting were the issues. It's delusional to expect an overworked bullpen to pitch 4 scoreless innings to win a 2-1 game because the starters can't pitch deep (or even throw a baseball hard once they wear out at 100 innings on the year), and the offense certainly isn't going to plate any more runs,

What makes you think Martin has ceiling above what he showed? 2022 AA = .241/.367/.315 OPS .683 ISO .074, wRC+ 89 2023 AAA = .263/.386/.405 OPS .791, ISO .141, wRC+ 106 2024 MLB = .253/.318/.352 OPS .670, ISO .099, wRC+ 94 His barrel rate was 1.1% and ranked #362 of 365 players with 200+ PA last year bottom 1%. His hard hit rate of 33.0% was #283, bottom quartile. His 87.2mph average exit velocity ranked #274, which was also bottom quartile. His 108.8mph maximum exit velocity ranked #271, which was also bottom quartile suggesting he tapped into all he had from a raw power standpoint. He's basically Luis Arraez, but Martin's contact rates are much worse so he strikes out 5x more than Arraez, and the result is a major cap on Martin's potential. Defensively, Martin has played a fair amount of OF. His most common position at Vanderbilt was outfield in 2018, shifting to primary 3B in 2019, and returning to the outfield as a primary position in 2020. He's played 200 professional games in the outfield since his drafting. It's not exactly new. While there is certainly some room for growth defensively, he was outright bad in the outfield. It'd be a major coup d'etat to see Martin just become average defensively because of his good, but not great speed and weak arm. He'll never be average in CF as he's severely stretched to cover it based on his good for a regular MLB player, but poor speed for a CF. He's similar to Matt Wallner, but without the arm.

As important as the fact the Twins had no desire to play Camargo is the reason why. The .212/.290/.403 OPS .693 line generated in the extremely hitter friendly AAA International League was good for a wRC+ 76 rating. Almost as bad at AAA as Vazquez was at MLB, and Camargo isn't known as great defensively. Camargo is a borderline bust right now. The Twins haven't had a catcher prospect break through to the top 20 since Ryan Jeffers was a prospect. There is zero depth down there. Of course, part of that is Falvey pretty much forgot the catcher position even existed after he drafted Jeffers in 2018.

Seeing some rose tinted coke bottles used as glasses here. Martin was literally -0.2 fWAR. That's not solid. That's not encouraging. That's DFA -> outright off the 40 man levels of performance sooner than later. I think we've seen what Martin is capable of at AAA, and his absolute ceiling is probably in that 1 WAR class. Martin's approach at the plate and his swing is never going to generate much power, and against MLB pitchers, he's going to take limited walks while striking out a fair margin. It all adds up to an MLB average bat ceiling. Unfortunately, as has been the case at almost every level and position as Martin was coming up, his defensive instincts were weak again with the Twins. He's just so raw for being a guy who was in AA back in 2021.

I compared him to his peers. Not guys who got a handful of plate appearances because most teams have a primary catcher and a true "backup" rather than the Twins full platoon approach. Christian Vazquez is a starting MLB catcher earning $10MM a year and playing over 300 PA a season. But I'll go ahead and take the sample size down to a 120 plate appearances to get to your number which is now like comparing a starting outfielder to a AAAA 4th outfielder who occasionally gets a PA. The median hitter, Luis Torrens with a whopping 130 PA ranks #30 at wRC+ 90. He was a little above average defensively and produced the same value as Christian Vazquez at 0.8 fWAR on the season. If we increase the sample size to 200 PA (which is pretty much the minimum for a legit sample size) we have 45 catchers and the median half way between #22 (Logan O'Hoppe) and #23 (Carson Kelly) is wRC+ 100. Again, catchers are average hitters. Christian Vazquez ranks #52 of 60 catchers with 120+ PA last year. Only 1 catcher with more than 158 PA was worse at the plate.