bean5302

It's not ridiculous. A 3 WAR player is going to make about $18MM AAV. Edman's age does make the 5 years a bit long, but the total money means it's a great deal. I'm assuming Edman wanted more total money than AAV. The value is in the team control here. Castro's overall value for 1 year at $6MM will be significant, but I don't think Falvey has the skill necessary to make the tender/trade work based on his history.

Not what happened. You stated a borderline HoF career (similar to the 14yr, 129 OPS+ career Bobby Bonds had) would be a a disappointment for Walker Jenkins. Rather than admitting how far out there your position was, you deflected by saying Bobby Allison, who only played in 1,500 games in his career, was a better comp for 15yrs at 124 OPS+. Of course even implying that a 35 WAR career would be a disappointment is unreasonable in a vacuum. 35 WAR careers are rare (top 3-4% in MLB history). Only 7 position players have ever accumulated more than the 34 WAR Bobby Allison accumulated in a Twins uniform. Carew, Killebrew, Mauer, Puckett, Hrbek, Knoblauch. If Walker Jenkins turns into a career 25 WAR player like Max Kepler, he'll be an enormous success. I don't have a problem with people hoping for Juan Soto (who has more WAR than Ted Williams or Babe Ruth or Cal Ripken, Jr. through age 25), but those dreams aren't backed up in any kind of rationality. Jenkins' track record doesn't compare well with HoF type players.

Spotrac MV 3yrs $31MM ESPN Est. 2yrs $24MM MLBTR = 1yr Below $8MM Mets - It seems a popular speculation around here for 2024 Twins players who weren't good to end up in NY because the Mets can afford to spend, but the Mets can afford to spend on good players. Why would they spend on guys like Paddack or Kepler when they don't need to bottom feed? Mariners - Already have a veteran corner OF in Arozarena. Can't see them choosing Kep over the cheaper, and just as good (or better) Victor Robles. Rockies - Are cutting salary so I can't see them signing Kepler, though Coors would be a great place for Kepler to rebound. Marlins - No idea about this club, but it doesn't feel like a good fit on the surface. Nobody wants to play for them, that much I'd bet money on. The owner, Bruce Sherman, is busy talking about tech and development expenditures and downplaying free agency. Historically, the Marlins are not free agent spenders. Their biggest FA contract ever was $53MM, and they've only handed out a $10MM+ contract 4 times in team history. I think Kepler is going to have to settle for a 1 year deal to get into the $10MM+ AAV range. I think the Royals are a good candidate to sign him. The Royals need a corner OF with at least a league average bat, and they have some payroll flexibility. Kepler should rebound to a solid 2 WAR season and meet their needs.

Bobby Bonds was literally in the link I posted in the comment you quoted. Bobby Bonds. Career OPS+ 129. 14 years played. 57.8 career WAR. Borderline HoF.

Colorado (43%) also had the 8th highest ground ball rate and the worst WHIP (1.52), much higher than the Twins' 27th ranked (39%) and 7th ranked WHIP (1.23). The Rockies put a ton more people on base than the Twins did, and since the Rockies had the 26th ranked number of BB's issued (563) vs. the Twins' 3rd best (433). Tons of those extra base runners were on 1B where lots of grounders meant more double plays could be made. It's not that Brendan Rodgers is necessarily a defensive stud so to speak, but he gets a ton of opportunities. Apart from one year, his DRS has been negative, his UZR/150 is just a bit above average and his OAA is negative. FIP is a pretty old stat. It doesn't care about batted ball data, park factors or anything else, really. HR, BB, Strikeouts. Everything else is neutral. The Twins' front office invests heavily in pitching strategy and batted ball tendencies. I use fWAR a lot because it's Fangraphs' data is much easier for me to sort through than Baseball Reference's stuff. Also, I don't understand Baseball Reference's pitcher WAR calculation. I thought it was based on ERA or ERA+, but it's not.

You think it would be disappointing to have a Walker Jenkins turn into a 60 career WAR borderline HoF player??? That's the kind of career Bobby Bonds had. Duuuuuuude... He'd be in the discussion of greatest Minnesota Twins player in history if he never left the Twins. The only players to ever significantly play for the Twins who would definitely be better are Bert Blyleven and Rod Carew. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsbo01.shtml

As soon as one of them puts up a 5 WAR season while still pre-arb eligible...

No. It wasn't. Rooker did not refine his approach with coaches. If you read his interviews, he makes it clear it was him and his hitting style. Confidence was the issue. His desired approach and swing did not really change much.

I never thought much of Larnach or Kirilloff.

I did. At least on the order of a wRC+ 120-130 hitter. Not a wRC+ 165 hitter. I doubt MLB franchises turn to TD for player scouting.

What about Louie Varland? He was a starter who didn't work out. He hasn't been "great" in a very SSS of relief appearances (6.44 ERA, 3.54 FIP), and wasn't playable as a starter (5.27 ERA, 5.46 FIP). Jax is a legitimately different pitcher 4 years later now than he was in 2021. His average velocity is up 4mph. his pitch offerings have changed as well. He's throwing his 4 seamer 30% less than he used to, he ditched his curveball and added a sinker. He's not comparable to the Varland shift since the only thing which really changes for Varland is velo. Evaluating the change for Jax should be done mostly in a vacuum, IMHO.

Rooker's first 10 games with the Athletics = .333/.395/.727 OPS 1.122 wRC+ 201. He wasn't making adjustments to his swing while in Oakland that let him become good. He was just getting the luck to swing the opposite way from unlucky to overlucky, if you will. He's never talked about changing his swing. He's talked about getting his timing right and the confidence to lay off bad pitches. Rooker didn't turn into a different hitter, the Twins failed to recognize him as an MLB-worthy player or give him the opportunity. Once labeled as a MiLB depth guy (like Larnach was before this year started), the chances for Rooker to get playing time or move up the depth chart was limited. He'd been written off. Simply put, the Twins thought Larnach and Kirilloff were substantially better than Rooker so Rooker was expendible.

Of the #1 Twins prospects since 1983, almost all of them made to to MLB, but the #1 prospect's repeating has become more common since the mid 90s. Of the last 10 prospects who were ranked #1 in the Twins' system, 6 turned out productive careers or are on the path for it. Jenkins is far from a sure-fire bet IMHO. 83 - Brian Oelkers 84 - Kirby Puckett 85 - Jay Bell 86 - Billy Beane 87 - Steve Gasser 88 - Derek Parks 89 - Johnny Ard 90 - Willie Banks (#13) 91 - Rich Garces (#16) 92 - David McCarty (#22) 93 - David McCarty (#16) 94 - Rich Becker (#37) 95 - LaTroy Hawkins (#30) 96 - Todd Walker (#22) 97 - Todd Walker (#7) 98 - Luis Rivas (#55) 99 - Michael Cuddyer (#36) 00 - Michael Cuddyer (#18) 01 - Adam Johnson (#41) 02 - Justin Morneau (#21) 03 - Joe Mauer (#4)... ummm, Rocco Baldelli (#2) LOL 04 - Joe Mauer (#1) 05 - Joe Mauer (#1) 06 - Jason Kubel (#58) 07 - Matt Garza (#21) 08 - Nick Blackburn (#56) 09 - Aaron Hicks (#39) 10 - Aaron Hicks (#19) 11 - Kyle Gibson (#34) 12 - Miguel Sano (#18) 13 - Miguel Sano (#9) 14 - Byron Buxton (#1), Miguel Sano (#6) 15 - Byron Buxton (#2) 16 - Byron Buxton (#2) 17 - Nick Gordon (#60) 18 - Royce Lewis (#24) 19 - Royce Lewis (#9) 20 - Royce Lewis (#26) 21 - Alex Kirilloff (#18) 22 - Austin Martin (#47) 23 - Royce Lewis (#43) 24 - Walker Jenkins (#13)

Martin had mediocre power in the SEC. While you're talking about SLG, his AVG was about .400 so it stands to reason his SLG was going to look impressive. His ISO was about .200. 60 grade power if were were talking MLB, but fairly mediocre at the SEC. As I think everybody knows, he Blue Jays drafted Martin, and he was drafted for his hit tool, not his power tool. The hopes were that the 50 grade raw power Martin had would eventually turn into game power with a swing change to increase lift. The Twins tried to implement swing changes designed to lift the ball, but it failed miserably. What does real power in the SEC look like? Brent Rooker's ISO was over .400 in the SEC in his draft year. His SLG was .811 the year he was drafted.

Funny how a budget crisis and desperation make a team's F.O. more willing to consider these things. Back when Duran wanted back into the rotation, Baldelli publicly scoffed at the idea. The article is correct about the risks, but more than that, the risk the Twins are willing to cast off a starter for talent/salary relief and trust in Jax is the big risk. Having Jax pitch in April, not perform well, and move him back into the bullpen isn't a big deal. Having the Twins trade away Lopez or SWR for salary relief/talent because they're counting on Jax is a big deal. The Twins are not deep in the rotation. I'm not sure why people assume they are: Lopez, Ryan, Ober. Those are the 3 pitchers the Twins can count on. I don't consider any of them to be an legit ace even though it seems like a lot of the baseball world does believe that about Lopez. SWR. His poor performance, reduced velo at the end of the year was the same as his great performance improved velo at the beginning of the year. SWR gained a little on his fastball at mid year to sustain his success, but as soon as that extra bump dropped back off, MLB hitters adapted with the aid of scouting reports. Keep in mind, SWR was supposedly gassed and losing that fastball at just 125 innings (112 in MLB, 13 in AAA). SWR's offerings are pretty weak on Stuff+, his conditioning and endurance are questionable as a full time starter, and the scouting reports were effective at setting him back. David Festa. Sophomore slump is a real probability with him as the scouting reports grow. Festa has struggled with HRs at the upper minor levels, and while he pitched well enough to hold down a back end rotation arm, he also only went 125 innings combined last year. He could take a step forward or he could fall back. He is not a young prospect anymore entering his age 25 season. Last year there were 40 starting pitchers at age 25 or younger in MLB who pitched 70+ innings (which is the innings cutoff for 150 total qualified pitchers). That's about 30% of MLB starters. It includes legit front end starters people would recognize. Bibee, Crochet, Skenes, Greene, Yamamoto... etc. Chris Paddack. I don't view this guy as a legit starter at all. He's capped at 80 IP per year, and even when he does pitch, he hasn't been effective carrying a 4.82 ERA during his tenure with the Twins. Not once in his entire injury plagued career has Paddack carried an ERA/FIP combo below 3.95. He's never been a mid rotation starter in his career. Blame the hype machine if you think otherwise. Zebby Matthews. Love the story, but he needs to work on his command. He wasn't ready yet last year, and he's not going to be a mid rotation or better starter unless his stuff and/or command improves. --------------------------------- We're past legitimate depth options before mid season now. --------------------------------- Andrew Morris? 20% K vs. 8% BB in AAA last year. Both at the limits of rotation projectability. He might make it or might flame out. Marco Raya? Shoulder 2021. Shoulder 2022. Shoulder 2023. Josh Winder #2? Aside from the durability concerns, Raya's stuff has played more like Fernando Romero's projections. The K's which were supposed to be there haven't consistently shown up.

Looking back at the list, I'm not sure the rankings/scouting was of value prior to 1990, anyway. Only 2 of the 7 top prospects for the Twins actually made any significant impact. Kirby Puckett, and Jay Bell (who the Twins traded to Cleveland for Bert Blyleven's return). Even though Bell turned in a fantastic career, the trade was still a good one since Bert Blyleven brought the Twins their first World Series, and one of 2 World Series' in their franchise history (3 if you actually believe the 1924 Senators should be included). A World Series victory is worth any prospect or any player.

List goes back to 1990 when BA started ranking prospects across organizational barriers (national level). In my comment above, BA rankings back to 1983 for the Twins were added. There were no prospect rankings by BA prior to 1983, and it wouldn't surprise me if there were no major organizations who officially ranked teams' prospects in a similar manner prior to 1983.

I think people may not have read the article. These are the highest ranked prospects since 1990 in Baseball America's national rankings. It doesn't go back further because BA didn't do a national ranking prior to 1990. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/1983-2000-top-10-prospects-rankings-archive/ That's an archive link to top 10 prospects in each team's system from 1983-2000. 83 - Brian Oelkers 84 - Kirby Puckett 85 - Jay Bell 86 - Billy Beane 87 - Steve Gasser 88 - Derek Parks 89 - Johnny Ard 90 - Willie Banks (#13) 91 - Rich Garces (#16) 92 - David McCarty (#22) 93 - David McCarty (#16) 94 - Rich Becker (#37) 95 - LaTroy Hawkins (#30) 96 - Todd Walker (#22) 97 - Todd Walker (#7) 98 - Luis Rivas (#55) 99 - Michael Cuddyer (#36) 00 - Michael Cuddyer (#18) 01 - Adam Johnson (#41) 02 - Justin Morneau (#21) 03 - Joe Mauer (#4)... ummm, Rocco Baldelli (#2) LOL 04 - Joe Mauer (#1) 05 - Joe Mauer (#1) 06 - Jason Kubel (#58) 07 - Matt Garza (#21) 08 - Nick Blackburn (#56) 09 - Aaron Hicks (#39) 10 - Aaron Hicks (#19) 11 - Kyle Gibson (#34) 12 - Miguel Sano (#18) 13 - Miguel Sano (#9) 14 - Byron Buxton (#1), Miguel Sano (#6) 15 - Byron Buxton (#2) 16 - Byron Buxton (#2) 17 - Nick Gordon (#60) 18 - Royce Lewis (#24) 19 - Royce Lewis (#9) 20 - Royce Lewis (#26) 21 - Alex Kirilloff (#18) 22 - Austin Martin (#47) 23 - Royce Lewis (#43) 24 - Walker Jenkins (#13) I've added the Baseball America preseason rankings from TheBaseballCube. Have to change the year in the hyperlink to get to each season. I listed 2 in in 2014 which was the only year the Twins had 2 top 10s. Oh, and Baldelli, just for laughs. Oh, and I mostly only listed drafted by Twins players so it's possible the Twins acquired players who were ranked higher in some years? Don't care. https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects_mlb/2024~BA/

Why do hitters need power? They don't, but a guy like Walker Jenkins who will be a fringy center fielder or more likely a good corner outfield bat, needs power to push his ceiling. 150+ Game Corner Outfielder with +5 runs defense would go something like... .275/.350/.400 ISO .125 Low Power WAR = 2.5 WAR .275/.350/.450 ISO .175 Moderate Power = 4.0 WAR .275/.350/.500 ISO .225 Good Power = 6.5 WAR .275/.350/.550 ISO .275 Elite Power = 8.0 WAR All the comments about Luis Arraez... he played with a torn thumb ligament last year. The Lopez fans love to denigrate Arraez, but it seems he's a solid wRC+ 130 hitter when his thumb is fully attached.

Reading the scouting reports (the athletic tools) you got Mike Trout, who is a first ballot HoF'er. My counterpoint was an equally unlikely and poor comparison (Joe Benson).

Strange, I get Joe Benson.

Based on the numbers in the chart, you can be sure of one thing. Walker Jenkins is going to make MLB. Also, it's rare for a player to appear in the top 5 more than once, either from losing prospect status or dropping down the list, but most of the time, the player ranked this high is in MLB within a calendar year or so after their ranking. If Jenkins tears up AA I'm sure he'll be in AAA mid-year and he could potentially get some playing time at Target Field before the end of the season. It'd be a surprise for Jenkins not play a big portion of the 2026 season on the MLB roster. He was 6'3 and 210lbs of super lean muscle at the draft point. Swimmers know how to be strong AF without putting on weight, but still, I'm not sure how much people expect him to "fill out" because he's not some 160lb high school prospect like Nick Gordon was. Morneau played at 6'4 and 220lbs in his prime. Turning him into a 300lb (Cartman voice) BEEFCAKE!!!! (/Cartman voice) isn't likely the source to improve his power. Jenkins is young, but lets comparing him to other players from this list who were all elite prospects at age 19 (I swear the batting average is not a typo) and in A+ or above. Some prospects were drafted out of college, some were pitchers, and some didn't play in A+ or higher at age 19 (2020 lost season impacted a lot). To be fair, some of these guys I'm comparing Jenkins are potential hall of famers so this isn't some sort of fair bar to determine whether or not Jenkins can be a very good every day player, it's just next to the true superstars, the shine on his production doesn't stand out as much. Ordered by level, then by wRC+ 1) MLB .270/.340/.477 OPS .817 ISO .206 wRC+ 121 Bryce Harper 2) AA .326/.374/.520 OPS .895 ISO .195, wRC+ 159 Ron Acuna, Jr. 3) AA .326/.414/.544 OPS .958, ISO .218, wRC+ 156 Mike Trout 4) AA .326/.351/.598 OPS .909, ISO .272 wRC+ 159 Xander Bogaerts 5) AA .402/.449/.671 OPS 1.120, ISO .269 wRC+ 203 Vlad Guerrero, Jr. 6) AA .286/.355/.507 OPS .862, ISO .221 wRC+ 133 Fernando Tatis, Jr. 7) AA .253/.315/.542 OPS .857, ISO .289 wRC+ 133 Jarred Kelenic 8) AA .289/.407/.395 OPS .801, ISO .105 wRC+ 131 Francisco Lindor 9) AA .281/.368/.452 OPS .820, ISO .171 wRC+ 127 Jurickson Profar 10) A+ .346/.453/.512 OPS .966, ISO .166 wRC+ 172 Wil Myers 11) A+ .326/.415/.472 OPS .887, ISO .147 wRC+ 155 Byron Buxton 12) A+ .290/.382/.481 OPS .862, ISO .191, wRC+ 147 Walker Jenkins 13) A+ .325/.416/.510 OPS .926, ISO .185 wRC+ 144 Carlos Correa 14) A+ .275/.377/.508 OPS .885 ISO .233 wRC+ 131 Addison Russell 15) A+ .275/.359/.433 OPS .791 ISO .157 wRC+ 121 Gleyber Torres 16) A+ .275/.352/.407 OPS .759, ISO .131 wRC+ 119 J.P. Crawford 17) A+ .255/.327/.399 OPS .726, ISO .144 wRC+ 110 Royce Lewis 18) A+ .262/.354/.387 OPS .741, ISO .125 wRC+ 110 Victor Robles 19) A+ .257/.307/.335 OPS .642 ISO .078 wRC+ 97 Amed Rosario I've bolded the guys who have proven themselves as perennial quality starters thus far. I think it's pretty apparent Jenkins is on the line where stud players are less likely to shake out, though the book isn't closed yet on many of these players. It's worth noting the only players on this list lower than Jenkins who've already panned out were shortstops with far more defensive value than Jenkins will have. Jenkins has a lot to prove in AA next year to maintain his status as a top prospect and stay on course to be a solid MLB player.

Lets take a look at top prospects over the past decade or so. I'll take it back to 2011 where MLB's prospect lists begin and look at all prospects to appear on a top 5 from 2011-2023 (52 in total). I don't care about injuries or legal troubles, etc. I only care about production for years they played at the MLB level. No excuses. 6pts >6.0 fWAR = MVP Caliber 5pts 4.0-6.0 fWAR = All Star Caliber 4pts 2.0-3.9 fWAR = Solid Starter 3pts 1.0-1.9 fWAR = Fringe Starter 2pts 0.5-0.9 fWAR = Role Player 1pt <0.5 fWAR = Bit Player First off, every single player to ever appear on the top 5 for MLB from 2011-2023 has made MLB. 100%. You'll also see the trend that by 10 years from now, most players are no longer part of MLB. Player Last Appears Best Year Avg Year Future 1 Mike Trout 2012 6 6 MVP Caliber 2 Jeremy Hellickson 2011 4 2 N/A 3 Bryce Harper 2012 6 5 All Star Caliber 4 Domonic Brown 2011 4 1 N/A 5 Dustin Ackley 2011 4 2 N/A 6 Matt Moore 2012 4 2 N/A 7 Julio Teheran 2012 4 3 N/A 8 Shelby Miller 2012 4 2 Bit Player 9 Jurickson Profar 2013 5 2 Solid Starter 10 Dylan Bundy 2013 4 3 N/A 11 Oscar Taveras 2014 1 1 N/A 12 Wil Myers 2013 4 3 N/A 13 Taijuan Walker 2013 4 3 Bit Player 14 Byron Buxton 2016 5 4 Solid Starter 15 Xander Bogaerts 2014 5 5 Solid Starter 16 Miguel Sano 2014 4 2 N/A 17 Archie Bradley 2014 4 2 N/A 18 Kris Bryant 2015 6 4 Bit Player 19 Carlos Correa 2015 6 5 Solid Starter 20 Francisco Lindor 2015 6 6 MVP Caliber 21 Addison Russell 2015 4 4 N/A 22 Corey Seager 2016 6 4 Solid Starter 23 Lucas Giolito 2016 6 3 Role Player 24 Julio Urias 2016 6 3 N/A 25 J.P. Crawford 2016 5 3 Fringe Starter 26 Andrew Benintendi 2017 5 3 Bit Player 27 Yoan Moncada 2017 5 3 Fringe Starter 28 Gleyber Torres 2018 4 4 Solid Starter 29 Dansby Swanson 2017 6 4 Solid Starter 30 Amed Rosario 2017 4 2 Bit Player 31 Shohei Ohtani 2018 6 6 MVP Caliber 32 Ron Acuna Jr. 2018 6 4 All Star Caliber 33 Vlad Guerrero Jr 2019 6 4 Solid Starter 34 Eloy Jimenez 2019 3 2 Bit Player 35 Fernando Tatis 2019 6 4 Solid Starter 36 Victor Robles 2019 4 2 Solid Starter 37 Royce Lewis 2019 4 3 Solid Starter 38 Wander Franco 2021 5 4 N/A 39 Gavin Lux 2020 4 2 Fringe Starter 40 Luis Robert Jr 2020 5 4 Solid Starter 41 Adley Rutschman 2022 5 5 All Star Caliber 42 MacKenzie Gore 2020 4 3 Solid Starter 43 Spencer Torkelson 2022 3 2 Fringe Starter 44 Jarred Kelenic 2021 3 1 Bit Player 45 Julio Rodriguez 2022 6 5 Solid Starter 46 Bobby Witt Jr. 2022 6 6 MVP Caliber 47 Riley Greene 2022 5 4 All Star Caliber 48 Gunnar Henderson 2023 6 6 MVP Caliber 49 Corbin Carroll 2023 5 5 All Star Caliber 50 Francisco Alvarez 2023 4 4 Solid Starter 51 Jordan Walker 2023 3 2 Too Early 52 Anthony Volpe 2023 4 4 Solid Starter There's about a 10% chance a player who appears on the list becomes a perennial MVP candidate like a Mike Trout or Francisco Lindor, and an additional 10% chance they'll become perennial All Star caliber players like a Bryce Harper or Carlos Correa. After those stars, there's another 30% chance or so the player becomes a solid starter like a Dansby Swanson or Gleyber Torres type. Then there are about 20% of players who stick around as fringy guys who are good enough to fill holes in rosters in a pinch. These guys stick around for a few years at least. The Wil Myers' of the world, if you will. There's about a 30% chance the player never amounts to much. They might have a isolated good season or two, but in the grand scheme of things, it'll be a pretty ephemeral career which is typically over with minimal impact like an Archie Bradley.

LOL, Joe Ryan elevates the entire rotation to elite, does he?

Plenty. As of projections today, ATL, LAD, PHI, KCR, SEA, SDP, HOU. Add a half dozen more by the end of free agency.