bean5302

I'd love for the Twins to get Woo, but Dipoto has repeated time and again the Mariners have no interest in moving their cost controlled starters. BTV Woo +52.4 Kirby +103.9 Gilbert +77.3 Miranda +15.5 Lee +37 If the Twins did this move, and the Mariners accepted it (which they almost certainly wouldn't), the Twins have major holes in the infield. I'd guess Julien 1B, Lewis 2B, Correa SS, Castro 3B? Utility infielder is Payton Eeles? But the Twins are over budget by $5MM right now and I'm not sure who plays DH?

Ty France is 30 years old and he has never caught a single game all the way back to high school. His only experience at "catching" is when the Padres technically designated him as their emergency catcher a few years ago. Like when the Twins designated Eduardo Escobar as their emergency catcher. I'd imagine it'd take years for France to get up to speed, but I don't exactly see the problem with giving him a MiLB contract, except he's already had guaranteed MLB offers made to him.

Not sure why you're calling them West Sacramento. The Athletics don't have a city in their name anymore. They're just the Athletics. Besides, it'd be like calling the Atlanta Braves the Cumberland Braves or the Los Angeles Angles the Anaheim Angels (as they were once known before backstabbing their city). 1. Lawrence Butler is not fast. While he technically played a bit of CF in 2023, he was bad there. So he's not a CF option any more than Manny Margot was. A left handed corner outfield bat is great, but we already have 2 under team control for several years. 2. Mason Miller? He'd only cost a package of like Matt Canterino, Emmanuel Rodriguez and say... Zebby Matthews. Maybe they'd do Walker Jenkins straight up? 3. Curtis Mead. I'm not actually noticing a pattern. Mead has been utterly inept at the plate and it's potentially charitable to call his work at 2B/3B "weak." His power has been non-existent at the MLB level and it looks like he's taken a step back even in the minors. With only 1 option left, Mead is a pretty mediocre value guy. We could get him for Raya straight up, but why would we want to? 4. Baz. Sure, the Twins could get him for a group of prospects. The Rays' asking price is going to be sky high because trading high potential rotation arms with 4 years of control is not what the Rays do. Marco Raya + Luke Keaschall + Ricardo Olivar + Payton Eeles probably gets it done. 5. Jordan Walker. He's a corner OF with Matt Wallner like fielding skills (physical tools only), but he makes Wallner look like a savant reading balls off bats. Since he's only 23 headed into next year, maybe he can improve with some consistent playing time, but he's not going to be a guy the Twins trust to play CF. There's also the fact his bat has taken a major step back at the MLB level from his rookie year. That's not too uncommon, but Walker doesn't have an impressive track record in the minors, either. The Cardinals aren't going to sell low on him so he is going to be very expensive for what you get. There is some good fit here, but the Twins might as well stick Emmanuel Rodriguez into the corners out of the gate rather than bet on Walker being able to change his swing (and be more successful doing it). Anyway, this article feels pretty hubris-filled. Insulting other teams like the Athletics and Rays while dreaming up trade targets for the Twins which the speculated other teams would be unwilling to move for fair value, and without any consideration to the trade tendencies and direction of those other franchises. The whole idea the superior Twins dictate to the market what the market is going to want to do vibe.

I don't see anything to suggest Lopez typically starts slow. Furthermore, his location was better than average and his fastball, sinker and slider all graded out better through April than they did the rest of the year in Stuff+. Lopez's change up stunk to start the year. Stuff+ 78 vs. 98 on the overall season. He threw that changeup 20% of the time through April and an identical 20% for the rest of the year. Through April vs. Through Rest of Year 2024 = 4.83 ERA, 3.96 FIP vs. 3.92 ERA, 3.58 FIP 2023 = 4.00 ERA, 2.87 FIP vs. 3.59 ERA, 3.44 FIP 2022 =0.39 ERA, 1.66 FIP vs. 4.25 ERA, 4.02 FIP 2021 = 2.34 ERA, 3.20 FIP vs. 3.44 ERA, 3.33 FIP 2020 = NA 2019 = 4.78 ERA, 3.09 FIP vs. 5.22 ERA, 4.76 FIP This article seems to be attempting to diagnose a problem that doesn't exist and then hypothesize a solution for the non-existent problem.

I think some of the expectations are just a bit unrealistic. 1. The Twins are going to be at $130MM or below this year. If you want to argue they'd go to $135MM including Dobnaks' sunk cost, sure, but it's the same spot. 2. The Twins are at about $135-140MM, today, right now based on expected arbitration values and all the contracts they've tendered. 3. Canha is probably in line for a similar contract as Max Kepler who is probably similar to Wil Myers's deal in 2023 at 1yr $7.5MM We can nitpick whether or not Wallner or Larnach or Miranda are going to be good enough to be every day starters, but the bottom line is they really need to be good enough (or part of a trade that can return players who are good enough) if the Twins are going to be successful in 2025. Here's how the Twins' fWAR graded out by position last year: DH = -0.1 C = +2.9 *1B = +3.2 2B = +0.7 3B = +2.5 SS = +5.9 LF = +2.2 CF = +3.6 (-0.3 WAR without Buxton) *RF = +2.5 DH and 2B were black holes for production as was CF apart from Buxton. *1B and RF were solid, but the main position players in those spots are now free agents. Does Canha actually address the Twins' weakness spots from 2024 (CF/DH/1B)? No. Does Canha address expected spots of weakness in 2025? Probably not. Do the Twins have the financial resources to get somebody who definitely does? Nope.

Well, the Twins can always trade off all their prospects and pre-arb/arb eligible guys for cheap 35+ year old players in the twilight of their careers who've earned it, I guess? It's not a strategy any other team in baseball has followed, but it would be an interesting roster construction experiment.

I can find instances where people survive falls out of airplanes with no parachute. I don't think it's reasonable to expect they might make it, though it certainly would be an amazingly happy situation if they did. Btw, the first article is almost exclusively players who played prior to 1960. It's a great story, but it doesn't have any relevance to todays players or how they're developed. The second article. Jorge Posada debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26. Edwin Encarnacion debuted age 22. First significant playing time age 22. Jeff Kent debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 24. Josh Donaldson debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 26. Brian Giles debuted age 24. First significant playing time age 25. Zero of those players debuted after age 24. Zero of those players weren't playing significantly by age 26. DaShawn Keirsey didn't debut until age 27. A good year in AAA is nice. It's a great story for Keirsey, who finally got an appearance in the big show, and he certainly wouldn't have gotten a chance without that career year in AAA. Seems like a nice guy and all, but relying upon Keirsey is a totally different situation than expecting to be able to use him as short term injury replacement depth. The chances Keirsey is a good MLB caliber player is probably like 1%.

I don't think options should be used as a means to bury players as injury replacement depth. I think options should be used so players can make adjustments to their game while not hurting team performance. Optioning a player to AAA can help them address weaknesses exposed at the MLB level which has prevented them from being successful at the MLB level. After which, it's critical to test whether or not the player has truly adapted at the MLB level. Once options are gone, there's no way to gauge whether or not a player will likely be successful; you just have to throw them onto the 26 man and hope they're not a liability all year/all career. Julien (a26 season) and Miranda (a27 season) so they're really entering borrowed time for development. Of course, Canha isn't really a major 1B candidate for the Twins. He's going to viewed as a corner OF'er since that's where the Twins really need the RH bat. Neither Trevor Larnach nor Matt Wallner have ever played 1B save for a single game in Cape Code Summer League for Larnach back in 2016. If the Twins are moving them out of the corners in favor of Mark Canha, Larnach or Wallner probably move to DH.

Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Chase Petty, Matt Canterino were all top 3 round picks off the top of my head. Can't say 1 proven drafted/developed starter in 8 years (Bailey Ober) is working by my standards.

This is a false dilemma. There are other baseball players who are not part of the Twins organization who would make pre-arb money.

That's why you have cheap pre-arb guys and guys under team control. Going out and signing free agents to multi-million dollar contracts who are expected to drag on playoff team potential when a team is on a severe budget crunch is nonsensical. It does sometimes work out of course, like Carlos Santana putting up a year nobody expected. Normally, the outcome is more like Tim Anderson.

DaShawn Keirsey had a really nice year last year in AAA apart from one bad month as I recall. The Twins do not seem to trust him, and they probably shouldn't trust him. They might play him if they have a roster crunch, but Keirsey hasn't shown a track record suggesting he's anything to rely upon. I expect he's 2024's Anthony Prato, and Keirsey will turn back into a pumpkin next year.

Sure, there are a ton of them who "blossom" since prime is generally ages 27-29, but rarely do you see a player debut after age 25 and ever be successful.

I'd like you to provide your analysis which the Twins could duplicate on this. It would be pretty interesting since more players accumulated 500+ PA while actively playing SS than playing any other position in baseball. CF is right in line with RF or LF as well.

Buxton's Contract was for 7yrs $105MM. The current value of the contract was like 60% more than Edman got. It's never been about Buxton's contract, it's about an overall payroll which has 5 guys eating up 75% of the capacity so the Twins have got $30-40MM to sign 21 other players.

0.5 bWAR for a full time position player = negative value. That's the kind of guy you can replace with AAA guys or MiLB free agents. I will continue to maintain that signing full time position guys who are expected to contribute substantially less than 2.0 WAR is foolhardy. A team needs about 2.5 WAR from each position player, 2.0 WAR from each rotation arm, and 0.5 WAR from bullpen and backup positions to have a good chance at the playoffs. When you bring in players like Mark Cahna, it puts pressure on everybody else. If the Twins need the payroll space, they need to trade for a right handed outfielder who provides more value, and somebody who can cover CF.

So broken. They're just throwing a whole kitchen sink full of questionable variables at it. I'm just going to stick with not trusting it. Berrios being worth dramatically less than Nola doesn't work for me.

Why in the world would Castro take a deal like you're proposing when Tommy Edman just got 5yrs $74MM? The deal includes a massive signing bonus of $17MM and is structured similar to this. 2025 - $25.0MM ($8MM + 17.0MM) 2026 - $8.0MM 2027 - $8.0MM 2028 - $8.0MM 2029 - $8.0MM 2030 - $13.0MM Club Option ($3.0MM buyout) -------------------------------------------------------- Deferrals 2031 2032 2033 2034 - $2.5MM 2035 - $2.5MM 2036 - $2.5MM 2037 - $2.5MM 2038 - $2.5MM 2039 - $2.5MM 2040 - $2.5MM 2041 - $2.5MM 2042 - $2.5MM 2043 - $2.5MM

Yeah, probably broken like it was a few years ago with BR's positional adjustments being double counted in their metrics. 2.2 vs 3.6 WAR is enormous for the same results. Using RA/9 + some broken DRS adjustment might make a big difference. It could be Daulton Varsho who was credited with a broken +28 defensive runs saved last year. I don't know exactly how BR is doing their WAR adjustment, but it's not trustworthy IMHO.

Zebby was under 50 IP, but he lost rookie status by 3 days. 48 days on the MLB roster so I'm pretty sure he's ineligible. I'd rank these guys as #1 Rodriguez. #2 Keaschall, #3 Raya, #4 Jenkins, #5 Olivar. Gotta make the big show first, but then have to potentially provide enough value/playing time to get noticed.

It might use RA 9 as a component, but there are major adjustments I don't understand. Jose Berrios ERA 3.60, ERA+ 112, RA9 3.70, 192.1 IP = 2.2 bWAR Aaron Nola ERA 3.57, ERA+ 114, RA 9, 3.79, 199.1 IP = 3.6 bWAR As far as I'm concerned Baseball Reference has some issues in WAR calculation.

The Twins are 100% committed to it now. They tendered Castro a contract so it's now fully guaranteed. I don't see any reason for Castro to agree to substantially less than the $6.2MM estimated by MLBTR for his arbitration value. It's not like a few years ago where teams could screw players over by agreeing to a contract without actually going to arbitration only to release the player before the start of the season to get out of the contract. That makes trading him, before spring when he still has value, the likeliest outcome under your assumption. If Castro winds up getting injured in normal daily life, the Twins are stuck with him. It's a risky game they're playing.

Especially Brian Duensing!

People around here talking about Kepler like he was Manny Margot or something. fWAR & bWAR 2016 = 2.0 & 2.4 2017 = 1.8 & 1.9 2018 = 2.4 & 3.5 2019 = 3.9 & 4.0 2020* = 2.9 & 2.6 2021 = 2.2 & 2.1 2022 = 1.5 & 2.1 2023 = 2.8 & 2.9 2024 = 1.0 & 1.0 *162/62 x WAR Kepler has averaged 2.1 fWAR and 2.5 bWAR per season for the last 9 years. Last year was the worst season of his career, and also the most injury shortened. Worst case scenario, he looks like a 1.5 WAR player. I think Kepler will probably be viewed like Wil Myers was in the 2022-2023 offseason, but without the negative connotations associated with an albatross contract. Myers got 1 year and $7.5MM from the Reds.

I mean, Punto did have that 1 good year back in 2006.