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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I did it for you a couple posts later, dude. It's not impossible. It would have been very difficult and the Twins may have needed to part ways with more assets to do it, but not impossible. Aside from that, Tom Pohlad made it clear what Falvey's orders were in December, not February. Falvey simply bumbled his way through another offseason long enough that even the actual owners were convinced he didn't have the skill set to build a winning team.
  2. bean5302
    Correct. There is no way Riley Quick makes it to MLB this year. I'm glad his numbers look good (in the low minors). Project those numbers at the MLB level and it doesn't look so good. Quick is not dominating. He's pitching well.
  3. bean5302
    I feel like most fans on this site don't have a good experience with what a rebuild actually looks like. Rebuilds are when you trade away your most valuable and highest cost assets to acquire prospects who won't be ready for a year or two, clear a ton of payroll to allow for the ability to extend those prospects and fill the gaps with free agents over the next 2-3 years. It's a long shot the team will be competitive for 1-2 years. The Twins have never run a payroll under $100MM since Falvey became the head of baseball operations. Every single other team in the AL Central has. $100MM is not rebuild for a mid market team. The White Sox bottomed out at $71MM in 2018. The Guardians bottomed out at $49MM in 2021. The Tigers bottomed out at $80MM in 2021. The Royals bottomed out at $89MM in 2021. The Twins bottomed out at $105MM this year. Buxton, Ryan, Lopez get moved in a rebuild. Bare minimum 2 of 3. Ryan probably gets moved. Jeffers probably gets moved. Assets with less than 2 years of control and increasing salary get moved. Payroll for the Twins would be dropping down into that $50-70MM range. There were no signs that was in Falzoll's plans. Ever.
  4. bean5302
    I was really hopeful for Matthews when he first came up, but his stuff isn't great so he needs to stay out of the middle/middle.
  5. bean5302
    There was no rebuild. Trading away rentals and a couple relievers while keeping the best players with the largest contracts is not a rebuild in progress. Pohlad wasn't in charge until mid December. Falvey had plenty of time to "rebuild" if that was going to happen.
  6. bean5302
    I just paid almost $5 for gas, thanks, Pohlads!!!! Tom Pohlad favored a bolder approach last fall. He's on record lamenting the fact he wasn't in charge earlier where he could have presumably fired Falvey sooner and hired a GM with a different philosophy. Here's what I did for Feb 4th.
  7. bean5302
    Ownership did understand this. Tom Pohlad told Derek Falvey he was going to be let go just a couple weeks after Tom was made a controlling owner. There are many articles talking about how nearly unprecedented Falvey's pink slip was. Tom favored a bolder, more aggressive approach to re-constructing the roster to win in 2026 and Falvey wasn't up to the task. Falvey's approach has been consistent (and highly unsuccessful).
  8. bean5302
    Not panicked that a pitcher I didn't expect would be good at the MLB level isn't good at the MLB level. Stuff+ really likes Morris' arsenal, but MLB hitters say otherwise. Batters aren't chasing Morris' stuff and their contact rates are high both outside and inside the strike zone. It's a weird mix of metrics.
  9. bean5302
    Getting accurate reads on prospect speed is tough. Guys who look fast might just have short strides or tall, awkward looking players might actually be far faster. Smooth outfielders just look faster. Infielders rarely get asked to go flat out for long distances so they get gauged on their time to 1B or just how they look. Scouting reports have Houston as an above average runner. Baseball America says he's a savvy base runner, but as you've surmised, catchers and pitchers in the lower minors aren't always skilled at controlling the run game. Still 19:1 ratio of stolen bases is impressive.
  10. bean5302
    Arcia won't clear waivers if he's DFA'd, but he looks cooked to me. He's simply too indecisive at the plate. He needs to swing hard more often. Gray and Kreidler both have options. Personally, I don't buy the narrative either one of them is a good utility fielder. Of those two, Kreidler is the most valuable IMHO.
  11. bean5302
    I think my topic on this was more accurate (subject line wise), though this thread could be saved by changing it from "lottery ticket" to "$1 scratch off ticket"
  12. bean5302
    This team is playing about how most people expected them to play. The hot start was fun, but the players the Twins needed to lead weren't able to lead performance-wise. I think there are plenty of bright spots still. Taj Bradley may have struggled recently, but there was some sustained success there. Mick Abel and Connor Prielipp have both looked like they might stick long term in a rotation as well. Not a ton past that point, though, heh.
  13. bean5302
    Let me help you with that. It's called optimism; a bright spot for Twins fans. Seems like Lewis playing well offends you? Bummer.
  14. bean5302
    Good. He might be able to single handedly prevent the Tigers from making the playoffs.
  15. bean5302
    I thought the biggest reasons were allocating a large percentage of the expendable income to guys like Joey Gallo, Manny Margot, Josh Bell, the the gutting of entire areas of the roster without rebuilding it (Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, Coulombe, etc) and squandering trade value by misreading the market (Kepler x2, Polanco, etc).
  16. bean5302
    Which is a totally worthless stat since not all players in high A are prospects. There's plenty of MiLB roster filler down there. Of 240 pitchers with 20+ innings 49 (20%) are age 25+. These are non-prospects 49 (20%) are age 24. These are also borderline non-prospects. If you're in High A and you're over 23, you're basically roster filler or long shot guys.
  17. bean5302
    He played 7 games before he was injured. After that, his August was mostly luck with an xwOBA 60pts higher than expected (which was already below average) but then came September when pitchers stopped throwing him meatball challenge pitches. After that, Keaschall's been consistently very poor at the plate. It's not like the Twins have some amazing 2B lined up, but Keaschall isn't playing well.
  18. bean5302
    I don't think Keaschall is going to "reset." I think he needs to learn how to hit in a way which will allow him to be successful against MLB (and AAA) caliber pitching. I think he'll struggle in AAA right now.
  19. bean5302
    I don't know as I'm worried about Hill. The complete inability to throw strikes is a career ending issue, but I'd be assuming it's mechanical. I'd be a lot more worried about the job of Hunter Townsend (Cedar Rapids' pitching coach) if he's unable to address this kind of problem.
  20. bean5302
    Keaschall wasn't good in May, either, he was just getting lucky. Based on the comments, we've got another Brooks Lee fan-fest going. Can't hit, can't field, we love him! Apr xwOBA .268 (very poor) May xwOBA .293 (very poor)
  21. bean5302
    Regression to the mean is generally for expected vs. actual results. Keaschall didn't experience regression in September, his expected and actual outputs were both very poor. Check again. He's now at -4 DRS (16th of 19), -2 FRV (tied for 57-62nd of 66), -3 OAA. (tied for 31-33rd of 36). Keaschall is unquestionably one of the worst fielding 2B in baseball. Adding value on the base paths? Baseball Savant agrees with a +3 runs score. He's a replacement level player right now.
  22. bean5302
    He certainly didn't start slow this year, but he cooled off quick. He's been league average at the plate for all three years prior to joining the Twins. For those not familiar, use a scale about like .280-.304 Very Poor .305-.315 Poor .316-.335 Average .336-.360 Great .361-.400+ Elite First vs. Second Half, wOBA / xwOBA, 2023 - .308 / .346 vs. .341 / .339 2024 - .283 / .293 vs. .383 / .349 2025 - .299 / .331 vs. .362 / .403 2026 - .290 / .301 Bell could rebound like he did in 2024, but he's been bad at the plate. It'd be unreasonable to think he'd be worth anything at the trade deadline other than salary relief. I don't know as there's much track record to support the "notorious slow start" type of label. I think there's a high degree of likelihood the player who hasn't generated more than replacement value in the previous 3 years and is struggling big time right now is just done. Do the Twins really HAVE to play Bell? They could just release him. He's not helping, he's unlikely to help them, and he's not going to be worth anything at the deadline. No other team in baseball signs Bell to the contract the Twins gave him. Nobody. We're not getting out from under it.
  23. bean5302
    Keaschall was scouted as a poor fielder from the time he was drafted all through his time in the minors. He's a bad fielder working to become a passable one. More concerning to me is not his "inconsistent" bat, it's his consistently poor bat. He's not remotely close to an MLB caliber player right now. He should be in AAA. Over his last 334 PA (September last year through today) .256/.326/.323 OPS .659, ISO .067, wRC+ 84. His wOBA .294, xwOBA .287.
  24. bean5302
    Taj's stuff generates some pretty high whiff rates on stuff inside and outside the zone so I wouldn't say he doesn't generate enough chase. There's just a limit to how far outside the zone you can be where any MLB caliber hitter is going to swing at all. It's really that. He's too wild. Can't see adding pitches to a guy's arsenal as a good idea when he's already struggling to gain command over his current stuff.
  25. bean5302
    The options are meaningless for guys nobody wants. Dobnak didn't have options and we shuttled him all the time.
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