bean5302

I definitely want the Twins to trade Buxton, I haven't used the tool, though. Been short on time.

Donaldson had an unbelievably poor luck year in 2021. There's just nothing in his batted ball profile which would indicate he wasn't an elite hitter. The guy should have put together a 4-5 WAR season with a wRC+ in the mid 140s. Sometimes, luck isn't on the players side. Selling low on him would make the front office look dumb indeed.

Meh. Limited control, gives up a lot of hits. $1.2M salary. The K rate has always been much lower in MLB than the minors. I just don't see the need for Cotton, at all.

Miley hasn't had an xFIP below 4.00 since 2014 and his career ERA and xFIP are right in line with each other. Though,that may actually be the best starter on the roster right now, haha.

The Twins do not need salary relief. They should be near $150MM a year during normal years and expanding to up to $180MM when their window is open. The market size, stadium, etc all allow for that level of expenditure. In any case, Sano and Donaldson are both part of the front office creating an enormous log jam of big bats with limited defensive value. The Twins are going to move a couple guys this offseason to clear log jams and improve versatility, but we'll have to see who they move. I'm not at all on board with selling prospects. That's exactly where front offices earn "F" grades. Like Phil Hughes.

The first year on the ballot will probably say everything people need to know on their chances.

That's not exactly true. He hasn't been getting to the plate in formal competition, but he was competing at the Alternate Site last year and he was taking batting practice late this season. Obviously, we can't see whether or not there is actually an improvement because of the lack of competition, but there should be the expectation he's not quite that rusty.

I've been pretty critical of Lewis' numbers in AA in the past, but it's just not possible to know what he's going to become with so little track record on him. It's tough to decide he doesn't have what it takes after playing AA at age 20.

I had a response quote of this, but it wasn't really accurate based on huge differences in WAR values. Also, I feel like catcher WAR has recently been heavily tweaked by Fangraphs? The WAR numbers I'm seeing seem to be much higher than Baseball Reference (driven by defense in many cases) I think Posey retiring now in what seems like a personal decision may cost him the HoF while Mauer will get in because of the concussion essentially forcing him out of baseball. Joe Mauer 52.5 fWAR, 55.2 bWAR. 1x MVP, 6x All Star Buster Posey 57.6 fWAR, 44.9 bWAR. 1x MVP, 7x All Star, 1 RoY, 3x World Series Champion Russell Martin with 55.1 fWAR and 38.8 bWAR. 4x All Star Brian McCann WAR is 54.5 fWAR and 32.0 bWAR. 7x All Star, 1x World Series Champion Grandal is still playin at a32 38.0 fWAR and 21.7 bWAR. 2x All Star. Posada is at 40.4 fWAR and 42.7 bWAR. 5x All Star. 5x World Series Champion Molina is at 55.6 fWAR, 42.1 bWAR. 10x All Star. 2x World Series Champion Honestly, with what feels like some dramatic tweaking recently, Joe Mauer should be an absolute lock. Posey with the awards is probably a lock as well... despite the much lower career bWAR. Only Mauer and Posey have the MVP cred of the group. Molina's 10 All Star appearances may get him in. Posada's 5 World Series Championships might get him in. McCann might have an outside shot, but Baseball Reference isn't kind to catcher value.

The Astros are going to make Verlander a QO, but it's unknown if Verlander will take it. Houston's owner has said Verlander is still looking for a multi-year deal of some significant length. Verlander has said he's never had a chance to test the free agent market so I think he's interested in doing that. Verlander will have 10 days to poke around the league in regard to interest after the QO is made by Houston before Verlander has to decide if he'll accept the offer.

Also, before people get too excited about Syndergaard, he followed Mets team physician orders to not throw a single breaking ball in the 2 games and 2 innings he pitched to finish the year. Syndergaard's velocity was down 3.5mph from his average in 2019 and 5mph from his peak in 2017. Coupled with the multiple setbacks he had, he's a little scary right now from a fans perspective. Obviously, I don't have access to his medical reports and any team signing him will so I'm sure that will go a long way towards clarity on offers he might get.

It's hard to play for Minnesota if you accept a qualifying offer with the Mets... Syndergaard made it clear he wants to be with the Mets and the language he has used suggests he not only wants, but would happily accept a qualifying offer. If the Mets don't make Syndergaard a qualifying offer, then it's off to the races, but considering they're going to already lose Stroman, they can't afford to lose Syndergaard, too.

So call him a #3 starter if it bends you out of shape. Of starters with 140+ innings pitched, Gray's 2.3 fWAR ranks him at 44 of 68 which would put him as a 4th starter by a linear percentage. Since Fangraphs defaults to "Qualified" you literallly had to change your settings making Min IP = 0 innings to manipulate your data set. You using pitchers with literally 0.1 innings pitched as a way to inflate Gray's performance is beyond misleading. FWIW, I'd say this was a pretty average year for Gray. His career ERA+ is 104. This past season, it was... 104. His career xFIP is 3.80, but it's trended up over the past 3 years at 3.89, 5.68 and 4.04 this season. The Twins need front of the rotation arms and that does not describe Gray, who will undoubtedly make a solid addition for a team who needs somebody to fill out the mid-back of their rotation.

Syndergaard is on record as hoping he stays with the Mets and based on his comments, he'd accept a qualifying offer so I can't see him in Minnesota at this point.

Running 2 miles with a completely ruptured ACL may be an example of that, though he said it didn't really hurt, haha.

I'm not interested in Gray. It's not surprising he's performed better at Coors as he's a 50% ground ball pitcher. The fly ball pitchers are the ones who get into trouble at Coors with baseballs that carry to the moon and back through the thin Denver air. Gray's struggles in 2020 are no doubt a realization of those splits where he dropped from a career 1.58:1 GB/FB rate to a 0.96 rate. Fly balls in Coors are bad news. I'd say Jon Gray is pretty similar to Kyle Gibson, but probably a little better. Pencil Gray in as a nice #4 starter. That said, the Twins don't need a #4 starter.

I thought I responded, but maybe I didn't? I'm not trying to troll anybody and I'm not trying to re-frame your statements, I was just paraphrasing 81-81 meaning .500ish. I don't think the mediocrity you're talking about is exists outside of extreme anomaly. The 1995-2010ish Blue Jays, and a little more recently, the Mets, but I can't think of any other teams which really fit that description. Both the Blue Jays and Mets had major ownership/GM issues. Being in a position where the team is constantly around .500-ish, never makes a post season appearance, but never really sucks, either would be pretty frustrating for sure. It's not worse than being awful year in and year out with ownership that doesn't even care to put anything decent on the field, but that's not where the Twins have been. Anyway, extending the season is often about luck. The 1 run ball game luck across a season or a Pythagorean which suggests a record should be different than it is or the missed strike out call that turns into a home run to extend the season. I think medicore team fans always some hope. Look at the Vikings fans. "This is our year" is the mantra of Vikings fans despite extreme mediocrity from the team. Teams which are close, but never make the move always have hope. I've lived in San Francisco and Denver. The Rockies fans have hope, but it's guarded. All it takes is a few career years at the same time and a mediocre team suddenly becomes a real contender, like the 2019 Twins. That's luck, and it can strike any time. Is a constant mediocre team worse than a team which follows the cycle the Twins have? Would fans be more apathetic? I'd say no. The Twins themselves carry an atmosphere of insecurity and the fans follow. Even in the up years, hope exists, but confidence in taking the next step is nowhere to be found. You say it would be worse if the owner appeared apathetic and fans would be more demoralized. I say, the vast majority of fans are already in that state.

Lewis is undeniably the highest ceiling prospect in the Twins’ system. Drafted #1 overall with a collection of physical tools often boiled down to just “athleticism” but what that actually means is Lewis possesses elite speed, a strong arm, quick feet and raw power. Lewis also has the work ethic and attitude to succeed. Anybody having questions about Lewis’ professionalism or makeup can watch this clip from an interview posted on YouTube by MLB on March 5th, just shortly after Lewis’ ACL surgery. He’s more articulate, confident, charismatic and thoughtful than most MLB veterans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coBBWY0hlBI Here’s an awesome 45 minute USA Baseball interview with Royce Lewis from April of this year. It’s worth a watch, but as a warning, you’re going to come away from it pulling even harder for Lewis to succeed. Hard to believe it only had 70 views when I found it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooangyknwdg So it all sounds great on paper, but there are quite a few lingering questions about Lewis. The question I’ve seen concern about most recently on Twins Daily is whether the Twins expect Lewis to stick at shortstop. In specific, there are some scouts out there who aren’t sold on Lewis’ arm at shortstop and Lewis has really struggled with errors in his first season at short in the minors. So what’s the problem with his arm if it’s graded as a 60? According to scouting reports I’ve dug up and read closely, it’s his release. Lewis’ throws tend to have a long release or windup which offsets his actual strength and there’s questions about his throwing accuracy. In 2020’s alternate site, the Twins worked closely with Lewis to improve his throwing technique to address those issues. If you watched the latter video link above, Lewis makes it very clear the Twins are dead set on Lewis being a shortstop so whatever concerns there are about his arm seem to exist only outside the organization. The other question is about Lewis’ hit tool. Regardless of glowing scouting reports and athleticism, players have to ultimately put up the numbers at the plate worthy of promotion and playing time at the MLB level. Lewis’ hit tool has taken a huge beating over the past couple years. Lewis’ walk rate is poor and his strikeout rate is mediocre at best suggesting a poor eye at the plate and he had weak batting average and power numbers. Any of Lewis’ struggles are sometimes attributed to his exaggerated leg kick, and if you haven’t seen it, it’s massive. Leg kicks create problems when it comes to timing and Lewis’ leg kick is so early and large, it seems like it can put him in a position where he’s off balance when he needs to swing. Timing both the pitcher’s delivery and the pitch’s location and speed increases the difficulty of having success at the plate. But does a big leg kick have to be detrimental to a young player? Not at all. Royce Lewis has been quoted as being confident in his leg kick and positioning, but he understands people immediately turn to it because it’s unusual. If there’s one thing Twins fans who’ve followed our prospects know, a coaching staff having a player constantly fiddling with leg kicks makes a mess of young hitters. The Twins are also on record saying the leg kick is not a problem. Still, it’s the target of amateur batting coaches everywhere. So how about that big leg kick being impossible for success? Let’s compare. A 23 year old Blue Jays All Star shortstop named Bo Bichette to our own 22 year old top prospect shortstop Royce Lewis. Bichette on the left and Lewis on the right. Bichette generates most of his big power from his corkscrew approach, winding up his core so that his back angles towards the pitcher, and that approach is particularly problematic for timing and hit tools, but he makes it work because he keeps his balance and his shoulders and arms stay level. Lewis’ leg kick is very similar to Bichette, but Lewis’ mechanics are more simple and don’t involve the big corkscrew windup. Lewis’ swing has been called messy with too many moving components making it inconsistent. If you look at the images, though, you can see there isn’t a ton of extra noise and the Twins have been continuing to work with Lewis on his approach including the 2020 alternate site, though the high hands required Lewis to add movement before the swing both down and in the opposite direction of his swing beforehand. Keep in mind, the GIFs I created show Bichette this year and Lewis 2 years ago. Regardless, Bichette is All Star proof the leg kick can work just fine, even for a young player. So if the leg kick isn’t preventing Lewis’ success, what’s wrong? Where are the results? Well, he was age 20 in AA and he only had 148 plate appearances at the level in the last season Lewis played, not to mention Lewis ripped the cover off the ball later that year at the Arizona Fall League to the tune of .353/.411/.565 OPS .975 in 95 plate appearances. When dealing with small sample sizes for a young player who is making adjustments, struggling can be part of the game. After all, the approach and adjustments are the most important part, not the end result. That said… I feel like the AFL is more tuned towards performance and getting experience than adjustments the coaching staff might make during the minor league season and Lewis absolutely produced and impressed there, just like you’d expect of a top prospect. The linked scouting report breaks Lewis down quite a bit and provides some insight into his troubles at the plate. https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/royce-lewis “Shows an eye for the zone but does not want to walk; passive approach early in counts may play against him, yielding poor strikeouts and walks both.” Of course, the same scouting report attacks the leg kick, but if we’re to believe the leg kick isn’t the issue, Lewis has some significant room to improve with his approach at the plate to balance his aggression. That kind of thing can just come with experience… unless your name is NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario… When it comes down to it, there is no prospect in the system with more potential to be a super star or who causes more anxiety with Twins fans than Royce Lewis. If any prospect has the character, work ethic and physical skills to make it all work, Lewis fits the bill. 2022 is unbelievably important for Lewis and his development. Here’s hoping the young prospect recovers fully from his ACL surgery, doesn’t lose a step and shows all the work at the alternate site and in the classroom pay off big time. The Twins could sure use an MLB caliber shortstop sooner than later and I’m sure nothing would please Lewis more than to prove he’s got what it takes.

All hail the hot dog keyboard!!!!! haha

I'm okay with all the grades here. They all seem pretty fair.

I'd agree Astudillo shouldn't be noted here. He played 1 game in right field, going 6 innings before being moved to catcher on June 1st. Putting Astudillo in the outfield is a receipe for disaster.

Since it doesn't seem to me the long term 81-81 condition you think is worse is at all common in MLB, it's kind of moot to argue the Twins fans are spoiled by not living it. The regular season is a means to a end for a lot of fans, fairweather as they may be. A few more regular season wins won't sell any more tickets than a 81-81 team sells. There isn't any more hope involved in my opinion.

Taylor Rogers because he's been consistently one of the best closers in baseball over the past few years.

You asked what the excuse for teams the Twins beat in the regular season was. Their excuse could well be "we've been to the World Series" and who cares if the Twins beat us when it didn't matter? Chicago 2005 Detroit 2006, 2012 Cleveland 2016 Kansas City 2014, 2015 If you're arguing going to the World Series has no value to a team or a fan base or the regular season record is more important than the yo-yo getting a team to the World Series because there aren't enough parades for league championships I'm not sure we have a fundamental area of agreement to debate from.

Their excuse is World Series appearances and victories?