bean5302

Polanco's error rate continues to be pretty high and UZR paints his play in a pretty bad light. Defensive metrics usually get closer together through the full year so it'll be interesting to see how things look at the end of the season.

I am. Valimont is pitching against AA hitters who often don't have good plate discipline. If they can lay off his offerings and take pitches for balls, it means Valimont's stuff isn't going to fool anybody at the MLB level.

Somebody must have told them it was the playoffs...

If I was to hazard a guess it would have something to do with Donaldson being in his stance ready for the pitch and Arraez is staring off into the outfield stands, facing away from the plate unable to see what was happening. Then, Arraez started moving around in Donaldson's line of sight to pick up the pitch. Arraez wasn't in position, he wasn't ready and he was distracting Donaldson. Feels pretty disrespectful to me. I don't think it's any big deal. More of just a "Come on, man! Get your head in the game!" The dugout conversation looked like a no biggie to me.

After this last start, I can't see any MLB team discussing Happ at all. There are guys any team has at AAA who would probably be a better choice.

Polanco looks to be putting together a solid 2.5-3.0 WAR campaign this year based on positional value and his bat. There are reasons to think Polanco's performance at the plate continue to climb a bit since his BABIP is still a bit too low at .267 compared to his career .307, but his HR rate is probably a bit inflated. Polanco doesn't walk a ton, but he also doesn't strike out a lot and he brings a little pop. Defensive metrics can be pretty unreliable until you get a couple full seasons together and there are several different systems for measuring play. While Baseball Reference shows Polanco with a Total Zone per 1200 innings of +10 runs, UZR/150 shows Polanco at a -13.7 runs over 150 games. That's literally 2 WAR difference just in defensive metric projections across a full season. Regardless of the advanced metrics, one thing which is clear, the biggest contributor to Polanco's previous defensive shortcomings (error rate) is still an issue. That said, Polanco is playing as a 2B consistently for the first time in several years so there's still room for improvement. While Polanco's contract is pretty minimal right now, it grades up to $10.5MM by year 2024 and I don't think he provides a big upside over Luis Arraez. Honestly, I think Arraez is good enough to start on a lot of MLB teams so keeping him as a utility guy feels wasteful. I think the Twins should seek to move Arraez or Polanco before next season and if I were choosing a player to move, it'd be Polanco for the savings.

Mitch Garver vs Ryan Jeffers. Luckily, Garver (258 innings) and Jeffers (298 innings) have played in a similar number of innings with the same pitching staff this year. Framing? Garver +2, Jeffers +1. Errors? Identical = 1 Passed balls count? Identical = 2 Wild pitches? Garver = 10 vs. Jeffers = 12 Caught stealing? Garver 20% (career 20%), Jeffers 35% (career 25%), but opposing teams have run on Jeffers far more frequently 26 attempts vs. 15 attempts. Jeffers was bad in 2020, catching only 13% while Garver caught 33% last year. As far as CS%, that seems to fluctuate a lot, year to year. It seems hard to gauge without a few years in a row with similar numbers. If I were a betting person, I'd wager the stance on Garver's defense has more to do with reputation than reality.

I've seen AA as a place where players work on their mechanics and craft against high level competition and AAA as a place pitchers prove their polish and locating, but that's just my opinion. If the Twins aren't having him make any mechanical changes and he keeps dominating AA for another couple weeks, it would make sense to me to push him to AAA and / or make a September call up, but I'd imagine the Twins are going to be watching his innings if it looks like he's going to throw more than 100 this year. Just my guesswork bouncing around in my head.

Glad to see Garver hitting the ball right away and Jake Cave running at full speed. Phrases like "back fracture" are kind of terrifying to me, and regardless of how people feel about his abilities on the field at the MLB level, I'd think nobody wishes those kinds of injuries on anybody. The fact Balazovic got through 7.0 innings on just 90 pitches and only 2 more batters than the minimum is awesome. That's serious efficiency to go along with the double digit strikeouts. Hope he can keep it going and get up to 100 innings.

Varland didn't sound like he was really heavily scouted as he was a 15th rounder in 2019 and, of course, missed 2020 due to the COVID shutdowns. The Twins reworked his delivery mechanics and he picked up several miles per hour on his fastball. Varland sits in the upper 90s now and can touch 100 in max effort throws. He also throws a slider, changeup and is working on a cutter, but based on his draft position and him describing himself as fastball heavy out of college, I expect all of them have needed some work. Evidently the work on his pitches must be paying off, but his UCL strain right away in 2019 does set off some red flags on durability expectations as far as I'm concerned. If he can continue seeing success as he moves up the ladder, it'll be a huge feather in the cap of the Twins front office and obviously a dream come true to stand on the mound at the MLB level for a kid who didn't have a hint he'd be drafted before getting the phone call. Seth did an interview with him earlier this year.

Because I'm assuming if the Twins trade Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers and Buxton, and then don't pick up the option for Colombe, they won't be paying Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers, Buxton or Colombe. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2022/ On the books currently for 2022: $52MM. Less Donaldson & Colombe = $26MM (includes Sano, Kepler, Maeda, Polanco, Dobnak). I eyeballed the $14MM figure. Garver, Duffey & Robles are the only other players we have control over currently making more than $1MM and performance or injury will keep all three of them from getting huge raises. If it winds up being $20MM instead of $14MM, I don't think the difference is relevant to my point, though.

In regard to whether or not the Twins can compete in 2022 if they move Buxton, Berrios, Rogers and Donaldson combined, the answer is yes. Colombe is going to need to pitch out of his mind good to have the Twins pick up his option. That would leave Minnesota with a tiny $26MM on the books for next year, plus another, say, $14MM for bringing back the rest of the roster. What could they do with $80-$90MM in a typical Twins budget? Just about anything they want. Major components of the team could look totally different. If the Twins only went with other in house options, got nobody MLB ready in return for those players and tried to compete with a $40MM payroll? Obviously, they'd look like a team gearing up to lose 100 games, but it seems really unlikely for that to happen.

There continues to be a lot of talk about Buxton, but the reality is he's not likely going to be out of a splint much before the trade deadline itself, and he'll need an obvious rehab assignment. Buxton being ready for MLB games much before early/mid August is probably unlikely and teams are usually pretty skittish about trading for injured players. I have advocated for Buxton being shopped, at least, to get a perspective on what other teams think of him, but it's hard to get a good feel for a player's value while they're injured. Sucks for everybody. Buxton himself, the front office and the fans.

If it's not about the money, Buxton would just sign for 1 year with 10 team options all for the MLB minimum. It's absolutely about the money, haha. That's okay, by the way. He's a professional and pretty much all professionals expect to be compensated fairly. The Twins aren't going to trash talk Buxton to the media and Buxton isn't going to trash the Minnesota Twins and say he doesn't want to be here, either. Well, at least it's very rare to see a MLB player take that position. The next couple of weeks should be really interesting.

Sounds a lot like a Tommy Milone ceiling, but only hoping for the best. It's a dream for any player to get a shot at the big leagues!

Yep, the Twins were also in a position to sign Yu Darvish in 2018, and there has pretty much never been a signing which would have made more sense. Basically, just because the Twins could sign Berrios, Buxton and Rogers doesn't mean they will or they expect to. I consider the Twins to be masters of saving face in the public eye by making lowball offers which aren't exactly "insulting" but are also unlikely to get guys to sign. The Twins claim they made a good offer and shucky darn, some other team just came along and paid more. What can ya do?

Donaldson's been hot lately and he's on pace to generate about 3 WAR this season which is totally solid for a starting 3B. On top of that, he doesn't have a long contract and that combination isn't super easy to come by. Donaldson is looked at pretty universally as a good to great bat. Worst case scenario, you trade him in the offseason. There is some risk he gets injured and misses a bunch of time again, but the bat is just too steady to ignore. Josh Donaldson isn't Chris Davis.

Rooker will turn 27 at the end of this years World Series. It's crazy to think guys like him have 3 option years remaining 7 years after he was drafted. Well, at least that's how it is for now. I'd be surprised if there weren't some big changes in regard to that kind of team control in the next CBA, especially if we're going to see a universal DH. Reducing team control would free up some fringe DH-ish talent for rule 5 acquisitions. He is taking a lot of walks at AAA this year (15%), but that K rate is just brutal for MiLB at 30%. There are a couple notable changes, though. I'm not sure how accurate this is, but Fangraphs shows Rooker has been using the whole field this year rather than being the straight pull hitter he was and his K rate is technically down from 35% in 2019. Looks a lot like Daniel Palka. Jose Miranda is just destroying the baseball this year. Hopefully, he keeps scorching the ball and forces his way onto the roster. The problem is finding a place to put him if the Twins don't move a couple guys before the deadline. I was thinking Palacios would get a promotion to AAA, but he's been scuffling in July. A stat line of .176/.300/.206 with a 25% strike out rate this month will hopefully turn back around. It's no serious slump, but a bad couple weeks. At least he's taking some walks at 12.5%. Still happy to see Cavaco hitting back from his stint on the IL. He's at .360/.484/.440 for a 924 OPS since his July 6th activation. SSS, but he's taking a ton of walks (20%), albeit with a 30% K rate too, but I'm hoping taking the walks will lead to him getting some better pitches to hit to show a little more power that's been absent from his game.

I think making a comparison to Donaldson is a pretty bold statement considering Bohm has very little track record to support it from a hitting standpoint and has received pretty poor marks in fielding scouting reports. Bohm had a .410 BABIP in his 180 plate appearances last year and has demonstrated no power above AA (he skipped AAA probably due to no MiLB last year). I do agree, though, no way Donaldson gets Bohm, though. I can see the Phillies being very interested in Donaldson, though, especially if they think universal DH is coming in the 2022 CBA. They get protection for Bohm's growing pains while not blocking him and getting a big jump on 2022's DH expanding to the NL. By "very interested" I mean enough to take on his contract and give the Twins a little something back.

There are advantages to "suck" seasons. While we may not be looking forward to the Twins playoffs this season, we can look forward to opportunities to see big roster shifts and young players getting opportunities. How exciting it is to see a guy come up and get a chance out of the minors and just RAKE or dominate on the mound? It really fuels excitement all the way into the next year. A lot of our young prospects are already getting vital MLB experience and it could help them avoid a sophomore slump. Plus, cheap tickets, etc.

No way, looks EXACTLY like every Twins pitching prospect in the system. Has to be. Look at the sling!

Highly recommend left field bleachers 128-129, row 9+ for guaranteed shade and protection from weather. They're inexpensive, decent seats to begin with, plus there are monitors you can look up and see for a closer view of the game. The right seats can make a big difference!

I'll admit, I'm laughing a little on the inside with all the comments about looking confident and the interview talking about him dripping in swag. Hopefully, he has a cute girlfriend. That's how you really know a baseball player has the confidence to succeed at the big league level. I learned that in Moneyball. Aside from all that, it's great to see him excited and enjoying the honor. That's fun to watch. A huge congratulations to him!

I don't think of Berrios as an ace and I don't think there's a reason to really believe he will be. The number of 3 pitch aces out there is pretty much non-existent. Berrios is what he is, which is a solid #2 or excellent #3, but with great durability and an ability to eat innings. That's why people are talking about 5 years $100-125MM and not 7 years $245MM like Strasburg got. I feel like the expectation is he's an ace and should pitch like one, but that kind of mindset takes away from how good he is at being who he really is.

I'm not sure where you got the information or feeling Gordon has a bad arm. Gordon had a low 90s fastball in high school and his arm strength was a major reason he was expected to be able to stick at SS when he was drafted.