bean5302

I've done that analysis before and you're dead wrong even if it "feels" like that shouldn't be the case. No legs to stand on at all. Feel free to spend a few hours looking at mid/upper rotation pitchers, and how often they leave games at 5.0+ innings under 4.00 ERA in recent years. Over 50% is very solid. It's why I put Sonny Gray in the comparison because I knew he wasn't going to be a lot better. For a mid/upper rotation starter, $11MM (he made $15MM) is a ludicrously good deal, (let alone the $6MM he made in 2021).

I suspect the ownership will purge the front office if the season goes poorly. After all, this is the final year for Falvey's contract and Pohlad hinted ownership's on the field expectations have been raised as of last year. If things turn around and the Twins advance in the playoffs, I suspect Falvey will get an extension.

Looks like that potential bullpen option is 100% out for the Twins. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/twins-daniel-duarte-to-undergo-season-ending-elbow-surgery.html

First, Berrios was not awful the following year. The Blue Jays won like 65% of the games Berrios started that season because Berrios had some clunkers, but overall pitched very solid in 2022 despite the negative perception. In 17 of his 32 starts and 172 innings pitched in 2022, Berrios went at least 5 innings and left the game with an ERA under 4.00. In 14 of those starts, he left the game with an ERA of 3.00 or lower. The replacement for Berrios, Sonny Gray, had 5.0+ innings and an ERA under 4.00 in 14 of his 24 starts and 119.2 innings. He had an ERA of 3.00 or under in 13 of his starts where he pitched 5.0+ innings. Berrios was not far off from Gray on any given start, Gray just had a couple fewer big clunkers mixed in. Second, there were other offers on the table for Berrios and other players the front office could have chosen from Toronto. The Twins were extremely unlikely to keep Berrios until the 2022 trade deadline if they didn't move him at the 2021 deadline. The team would have traded him at the end of the 2021 season to maximize their return, anyway. Falvey has acquired 0.1 fWAR for a young, 1.5 year controlled, inexpensive, durable, mid/upper rotation starter. That's a blunder, plain and simple. What matters is what the real return for the Twins' assets. If it makes you feel better, you can say both teams lost the trade so both GMs should be fired, but I bet money the Blue Jays make that trade over again today while the Twins would love to have it back.

First run of the game was a comedy of poor fielding. Julien muffed the ball, then double-clutched it, then it was like Vazquez couldn't even see it as the throw sailed 6" wide of his glove. Then in the 3rd, Julien dropped a throw which would have caught the runner at 2B on a Tigers steal attempt that cost a run. Then, same inning, Vazquez literally drops the pitch trying to transition to a throw which led to another Tigers steal of 2B, followed by yet another single that scores a run. Buxton hard core pimps a fly ball he thinks is a home run which turns at least a 3B into a 2B, though, the fly probably should have been caught in the first place. What do we hear post game? Joe Ryan pity party as if the cluster of home runs he gave up in the last half of 2023 were all just bad luck and life just keeps shipping him lemons, though I appreciate Ryan handling the blown strike called a ball better than his manager, at least. Baldelli had a little meltdown about the bad call before possibly talking his way out of a fine. The Twins lost because they didn't hit and didn't field at an MLB caliber level.

I've never subscribed to the theory of the frozen in time trade value. While Martin and Woods-Richardson were considered an pretty massive overpay by the Blue Jays at the time, all that matters is what actually happened. 1. Austin Martin immediately tanked in prospect value. 2021 - Trade deadline +42.6 2021 - Season end +30.8 2022 - Trade deadline +11.0 2023 - Trade deadline +3.7 Current +4.2 (less than Manuel Margot's 5.5) 2. Simeon Woods-Richardson immediately tanked in prospect value. 2021 - Trade deadline +22.3 2021 - Season end +9.6 2022 - Trade deadline +5.4 2023 - Trade deadline +2.1 Current +1.7 (less than Brent Headrick's 2.1) The Twins needed to get value for Berrios. Instead, they whiffed (so far). A non-rental, low cost, mid/front rotation arm is worth a fortune. Especially if it was the first legitimate playoff starter caliber arm the franchise had developed in a decade. I liked the trade right from the start, and it was considered so lopsided in favor of the Twins that Baseballtradevalues.com wouldn't even accept the proposal without the Twins adding $20MM in cash at the time. Regardless of what was supposed to happen according to Baseballtradevalues or analysts, the front office needs to be held accountable for what actually DID happen. The front office gets paid for on the field results, not the computer simulation, and the front office needs to be smarter than internet fans.

Sands struggled a lot in peripherals and analysis of his "stuff" in previous years while pitching as a starter/long reliever. If he performs as a short reliever, it's a fair indication that's where his value will stay. That said, the Twins are pretty strong in the bullpen already so maybe? I think the biggest problem is Sands hasn't gone more than 3 innings in the last two years so "stretching him out" will take more than the entire 2024 campaign.

Vazquez Vortex all day! hahaha

Martin is hitting .242/.306/.333, .669 OPS, wRC+ 90, pretty much right in line with projection systems. There is little real value in a hitting line which would be a liability for a starter. A backup/utility type role is fine, but those roles don't provide much value. Woods-Richardson has a history of getting results for a few games before batters tee off on him because he's been unable to keep his velocity consistent. I think he'll find his way into the rotation sooner than later out of necessity. He's in his 7th year at this point. It's a long, long time to struggle with the things Woods-Richardson has struggled with before suddenly putting it together.

The entire compensation system through arbitration is out of balance, and I think just about everybody understands that. From front offices to players to fans. What makes up for the imbalance during team control is the expectation good players are young and near their prime when they exit team control which grants them the opportunity to secure a lucrative, and often long term or at least multi-year deal which will set them up for life. Not to mention most players sign 6-7 figure signing bonuses out of the gate these days. Players still get the shaft while under team control to make up for the fact many players won't work out and to provide cash flow stability to the franchise operating with existing guaranteed contracts on the books. Again, Thielbar will never get the opportunity to get balance from the current CBA. Arguing it's his fault for not being good enough when he was younger is in poor taste, IMHO. I suspect you'd sing a different tune if your employer got to lock you into a job for half your career and pay you 20% of the market rate until you were 60 years old.

What I was really meaning to say is Dave St. Peter should learn how to market or be replaced by somebody who does so people want to come to the games. The rest would figure itself out. After the abysmal 2011 campaign, 34.2k fans still went to the average Target Field game, and 30.5k fans after the continued horror of 2012, and 27.8k fans even after the trifecta of 2013. Attendance stayed at 27.4k in 2015 even after the team sucked in 2014 for the quadfecta of horrible seasons before. There's plenty of reasons for people to attend a Twins game at Target Field, and if it's marketed properly, the seats will be filled at a solid clip. It's not being marketed well, and people don't want to go and that is absolutely impacting the Twins' player budget.

Yes. 100% I'd like the Twins to try it. Duran's value as a reliever is limited to about 1/3rd of that as a successful starter. I think they'd have to start him off as a 2 inning closer. Johan Santana was a successful reliever before he was the best starter in MLB.

Yeah, so great they've given the Twins a good chance at winning their games 50% of the time so far (leaving the game with an ERA under 4.00)

Hey, totally your prerogative. I think people should 100% spend their money on whatever makes them happy. If that's attending Twins games and the game day experience, great. If it's classic muscle cars, nice (they're expensive). If it's import cars with giant fart cans, your call (please, please drive someplace other than the parking garage near my house). If it's having a beer and watching the game at a Twins Daily event, sure. If that's a Twins Daily subscription used solely to avoid ads so you're not distracted while posting rage comments about spending, it's how some people will roll. Meanwhile, Falvey looks desperately for another $5MM has-been/never was, but who was good at hitting left handed pitching in the 6th inning in early evening games when it's a light rain and nobody is on base in 2021 so Baldelli's broken Excel macro spreadsheet can find a platoon for that...

They're not. I'm not sure where you get the opinion Twins hitters are somehow different than they've historically been? Complaint, low average. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. Complaint, lots of strikeouts. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. Complaint, streaky/LOB. Yep. That's typical of the Twins' hitters over their career. (naturally goes with the first two) The home runs haven't been showing up. That's the only difference, but things would look a lot like last year if you swapped Wallner/Margot with Gallo for the month of April. The Twins would suddenly be middle of the pack for HRs. All it takes is one Twins hitter on a hot streak to skew numbers.

I actually don't have a clue what Levine actually does. A real "What would you say.... you do here???" Office Space, Tom Smykowski situation. Evidently, whatever Levine does, it's not particularly impressive as Boston didn't even want to talk to him for a second round of interviews.

It's not a joke. Twins fans have been attending games at a similar rate to the early 2000s Metrodome fans in recent years = Not Good. In general, no fans = no revenue = no spending. That's business. Colorado Rockies attendance vs. Twins 2019 = 37.0k/game (71-91) vs. 28.4k/game (101-61)* 2020 = (26-34) vs. (36-24)* 2021 = 23.9k/game (74-87) vs. 16.4k/game (73-89) 2022 = 32.0k/game (68-94) vs. 22.2k/game (78-84) 2023 = 32.2k/game (59-103) vs. 24.3k/game (87-75)* 2024 = 26.6k/game (4-15) vs. 22.4k/game (6-11) *Playoffs Rockies fans support their team at a high level and allow for the (idiot) owner to spend more in payroll even though their team hasn't posted a winning record. In case you're wondering about this year's attendance, Coors Field can be awfully unpleasant in April (colder than Target Field for evening games). Twins fans have not supported the franchise well. I see arguments every day on this site about how the Twins should be spending more. The Twins have lost money on a cumulative basis after 2019 and 3 of the past 4 years despite pushing payrolls higher and higher and higher. Do you know why Rockies fans attend games at Coors Field? It's a great venue which caters towards adults and the overall gameday experience. Personally, I feel Dave St. Peter is at fault rather than fans who literally have no idea how to optimize their game day experience because Twins marketing is pathetic. In any case, I'm not sure what your requirement is? "If you build it, they will come" is about a stadium venue to watch the games. Target Field is built. It's a nice venue to watch baseball games. It's a nice venue to get out with the crowd.

I think we could potentially see a coaching change, but if we do, it'll signal Falvey is feeling a lot of heat. I'm not particularly concerned about the hitters even though they're scuffling badly right now. I am concerned about Baldelli's lineup selection process and the roster construction. If the Twins miss the playoffs or get swept out again, I have no doubt there will be a new GM running the show by November.

It's because the front office prioritizes certain aspects of player profiles. Derek Falvey's drafting and development history values taking walks and hitting home runs. Those profiles almost always come with enormous amounts of swing and miss in their game, and Falvey's drafts haven't produced much in the way of results at the MLB level for the Twins. Falvey created the roster the coaches are working with.

Tell that to the analysts, fans and Farmer himself. They all expected Farmer to be moved after he was tendered.

If a few more fans would spend a little money to attend the games, payroll wouldn't have been slashed. The Twins are 19th in MLB in payroll at $130MM. The team's payroll is competitive with their revenues, and $130MM was sufficient to field a competitive team. OAK = $63MM PIT = $84MM MIA = $97MM TBR = $99MM CLE = $100MM <-- Bottom AL Central in spending, top in the standings. CIN = $102MM BAL = $102MM <--- The team that just swept us. MIL = $106MM DET = $106MM WSH = $110MM KCR = $116MM MIN = $130MM CHW = $133MM <-- Top AL Central in spending, bottom in the standings.

Yes. Farmer was primarily viewed as a non-tender guy due to the cost. Once the Twins somewhat surprisingly tendered him a contract, the expectation was that Farmer would likely be traded due to the tight position player market. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/mlbtr-poll-should-the-twins-trade-kyle-farmer.html Even Farmer himself was surprised he remained on the roster and wasn't traded before the start of the season.

I think Joe Pohlad made it clear Falvey would be at risk for packing his bags if the Twins didn't "advance" in the playoffs last year during a mid-season 2023 interview. I do believe ownership has some motive in cutting payroll beyond just profit. I suspect Falvey's seat is actually very hot. This is the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken, and ownership has bailed Falvey out by pushing record setting payrolls and agreeing to superstar splash contracts late in the year both in 2022 and 2023. I don't like the "prove it" approach when the AL Central competition level is expected to be weak again this year, but there are comments in regard to building teams through drafting and development by Joe Pohlad this spring which align with the "prove it" methodology. Pohlad specifically mentioned Tampa Bay and Baltimore using the phrase "right size our business." The Twins have been spending higher than attendance in recent years in terms of MLB ranks. The expectation the Twins have the revenue/payroll to be competitive if the drafting and development system is in place is not unreasonable. Bailey Ober is the only legitimate (back end) MLB caliber starter drafted/IL signed and developed by the Falvey front office in 7 years. That's not sustainable. That's literally worse than Terry Ryan and Bill Smith whose mentionable guys actually produced real on the field value for the Twins rather than some other franchise. Smith 4 drafts, 7 players 2008-2011 = Hicks (2008), Gibson (2009), Dozier (2009), Sano (2009), Polanco (2009), Kepler (2009), Rosario (2010) <--- Smith's results were by far the best IMHO with 4 players who became All Stars in 4 years. Ryan 7 drafts, 11 players 2006-2007, 2012-2016 = Valencia (2006), Revere (2007), Buxton (2012), Berrios (2012), Duffey (2012), Rogers (2012), Garver (2013), Gordon (2014), Kirilloff (2016), Miranda (2016), Jax (2016), 2 All Stars. Falvey 7 drafts, 10?+ players 2017-2023 = Lewis (2017), Ober (2017), Jeffers (2018), Funderburk (2018), Wallner* (2019), Julien (2019), Varland** (2019), Lee? (2022), Jenkins? (2023), Soto? (2023). I think Lewis, Jenkins and Soto could eventually become All Stars. Lewis' health issues are now absolutely a real problem. *Wallner was first drafted by Terry Ryan's front office in 2016, same for Rooker who didn't provide much to MN so unlisted. **Varland doesn't look like a legit starter, didn't highlight Duffey for Ryan, either.

Caleb Thielbar is under team control as Arbitration Eligible (4th year) this year. Being a MiLB free agent (Thielbar) vs. an MLB free agent are different things. Had he truly been an MLB free agent (without team control), we can maybe estimate how things would have worked out for him. 2019 = a32 MiLB Free Agent 2020 = a33 $0.2 MM (Pre-Arb) vs. Free Agent 1yr $0.2MM 2021 = a34 $0.7 MM (Arb 1) vs. Free Agent 1yr $3MM 2022 = a35 $1.3 MM (Arb 2) vs. Free Agent 1yr $8MM 2023 = a36 $2.4 MM (Arb 3) vs. Free Agent 1yr $10MM 2024 = a37 $3.2 MM (Arb 4) vs. Free Agent 1yr $10MM Actual = 5yrs, $7.8 MM vs. Free Agent 5yrs $31.2 MM. The 10x is exaggerated, but Thielbar is in the twilight of his career, and he hasn't been compensated for his work. Thielbar will have no opportunity to be fairly compensated for his work in the future, either, because he'll be 38 before he's out of team control. The balance of doing what's right for the player and doing what's right for the organization gets skewed when it comes to players who don't get a lot of opportunity for whatever reason (not being good/service time manipulation/not being discovered, etc) in their early/mid 20s.

Yeah, I'm not happy with the Pohlad's decision to cut payroll capacity so much. I think the real cut they needed to make was Dave St. Peter's responsibilities and find somebody who can put fans in the seats. They really botched it this year. I think the Twins bought into the strategy "spend money to make money" the past couple years, but without success. I think that has mostly to do with St. Peter as I still feel the strategy is 100% valid.