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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    He'll be interesting to watch as he moves up since he's so inexperienced, and there's so little info out there on him. I don't take a ton of stock in Fangraphs pitching analysis on its own. It feels like they're obsessed with velocity, but 97mph in rookie ball from a 19 year old unknown is eyebrow raising.
  2. bean5302
    I look at things this way for starting position players: Full year viewpoint < 0.0. You're not part of the problem, you're the WHOLE problem. Please don't be on a big contract. 0.0-0.9 WAR. This is a critical weakness to address. 1.0-1.9 WAR. The team should try hard to upgrade from you next year if they're planning to compete. 2.0-2.9 WAR. You're doing your job okay. Kind of the meat and potatoes of a competitive MLB team. 3.0-3.9 WAR. Borderline All Star 4.0-4.9 WAR. All Star. These guys get you to the playoffs. 5.0+ WAR. Best player on the team. These kind of guys put the team on their backs in the playoffs.
  3. bean5302
    I'll 1,000x down on that. Vazquez's fWAR is -0.1 after 50 games, and MLB owners proposed using fWAR as a basis for player compensation. It's also worth noting multiple players are on record saying WAR is the most important stat for any player in terms of negotiations. It's the defacto "how good is a player?" as evaluated by the people who employ baseball players. Lets go ahead and say it's considered a fairly good estimate of player value. Christian Vazquez, by very definition, is worse than your average AAA call up catcher. That's not MLB caliber. He's not great at blocking. He's not great at controlling the run game. He's very good at framing because he's short He calls a good game (analysis attempts have been unable to prove game calling is even a "thing" and ask Jhoan Duran about Vazquez's amazing game calling. Catchers don't need to call games anymore since they can get a cheat sheet or they get their direction from the pitching coaches/dugout)
  4. bean5302
    He's playing. Rehab assignment started 2 days ago. He's in Ft. Myers in the CPX league. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/emmanuel-rodriguez/sa3014693/game-log?position=OF
  5. bean5302
    You're hoping the White Sox beat more contenders or you hope the Twins beat more contenders? The White Sox took their series' against the Braves, Rays, Cardinals, and Red Sox. I don't think they're probably doing to do a lot better than that. The Twins have won or tied like 10 series' against potential playoff teams this year.
  6. bean5302
    ...and I don't care about the opinions of a pitcher who only cares about his own personal results rather than the team's performance. Vazquez isn't MLB caliber. He's on the team, he's getting paid $10MM, he's going nowhere. He's as good as a random AAA replacement player overall, and the Twins probably aren't going to spend more on the position. But he's good at defense!!! So is every single catcher in MLB. Every last one of them is good defensively. Way better than any beer league softball catcher. The difference between Vazquez and the worst defensive catcher in the the big show is literally 1.0 WAR over 50 games or so. Luis Campusano has the same WAR as Vazquez, ironically (0.0). Because Campusano is a poor hitter at wRC+ 85 but just not as rough as Vazquez. Literally, the absolute most miserable defensive catcher in MLB with a slash line of .230/.277/.364 OPS .640 wRC+ 85 is just as good as Vazquez with his near elite defense.
  7. bean5302
    Yeah, you mean like I spelled out in my earlier post? How about comparing him to the guys drafted after him, which makes more sense. I conveniently laid those out for you as well.
  8. bean5302
    I've been encouraging patience with him given how he had been coming around after an absolutely brutal start to the season, but he's fallen back into the doldrums lately. I guy with an OPS of .560 doesn't need the at bats. His defense is fine, but that bat just doesn't play, and it hasn't shown any steady signs of life recently. He's not going to be able to build up any trade value at this point. Who replaces him? It doesn't matter. "Not Kyle Farmer." That's the point. He doesn't need to take plate appearances away from anybody. Have a 25 man roster and stop playing guys who make it less likely the Twins are going to win games. Yunior Severino? Payton Eeles? Michael Helman? Diego Castillo? Dashawn Keirsey, Jr.? Who cares? Kyle Farmer isn't helping the team win games.
  9. bean5302
    Just basically all the ones which were drafted ahead of him and the next 5 behind him... Jenkins was a #5 overall pick with a $7.1MM signing bonus (what Willi Castro will make next year in his final year of arbitration). That comes with some lofty baseline expectations. He's not some round 20 guy you expect needs a ton of adjustment and polish to perform in the low minors.
  10. bean5302
    He had 50 PA last year. Not enough to determine anything. When guys repeat a level and perform significantly worse in a larger sample size, it's a bad sign. I'm not saying Walker Jenkins is cooked. That'd be lunacy. He's more than holding his own in Low-A, and he has trended upward quite a bit lately. There's still plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Especially considering he's only in Low-A where the Twins coaches and staff are going to be working on things with him. The main article is just over the top. Jenkins hasn't produced at a level where the Twins should be jumping for joy they drafted him instead of somebody else. Lot's of anticipation in terms of what he can become, but like I said, reason to adjust the hype meter off 11.
  11. bean5302
    Vazquez isn't MLB caliber, but at least his bat isn't the worst in MLB anymore. There's still some positive regression possibility for him. He could wind up at at 0.5 or maybe even 1.0 WAR with some luck? In any case, he's not a guy a playoff caliber team wants playing much, but there aren't probably a lot better options for essentially "free."
  12. bean5302
    Elite prospects almost always move through systems fast, barring serious injury. If your elite prospect is languishing around, it's a pretty good sign they're not actually elite after all. Expected time to MLB? Elite Prospects, College = 1-2 years Elite Prospects, High School = 2-3 years <--- Walker Jenkins Good Prospects, College = 2-3 years Good Prospects, High School = 3-4 years The expectation would be for Walker Jenkins to be in A+ ball by the end of the year. 2023 = Rookie/A- 2024 = A- / A+ 2025 = A+ / AA 2026 = AAA / MLB That is the path of expectations, barring injury, if Walker Jenkins is really an good MLB player in the making. Things can go sideways for a year, but not longer than that before expectations are cooled significantly. Jenkins obviously missed a ton of time at the beginning of the season with the hammy, but when he returned, he had no power whatsoever. Even now, his ISO remains poor. He's currently "better than average" in his second go 'round of Low A. Still only 158 PA in Ft Myers, but it's becoming a concern to me. Jenkins recently moved up prospect lists because of the hype machine. It's certainly not from his production. His high ranking HS peers drafted after him are performing as good or better as well. *Blake Mitchell went #8, and everybody should know the Twins need catching depth badly. In 310 plate appearances in Low A, .261/.400/.474 OPS .874 wRC+ 156. *Nobel Meyer went #10 and he's in A+ ball. College guys available at Jenkins' spot **Jacob Wilson #6 (AAA) - .446/.486/.738 OPS 1.224 wRC+ 202 **Rhett Lowder #7 (AA) - 6.52 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 **Chase Dollander #8 (A+) - 2.83 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 14.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 **Nolan Schuanel #11 (MLB) - .240/.317/.353 OPS .670 wRC+ 91. Literally played 20 games in the minors and then was called up to the big show.
  13. bean5302
    Yeah. Andrew Albers was an ace for his first 2 games in 2013, too. If 2 or 3 game sample sizes were what determined whether or not a pitcher should be considered an ace, MLB would be overflowing with them.
  14. bean5302
    I care about results, man. Not hype, and Pablo Lopez was hyped to the moon after his playoff results, just like 'ol buddy Captain Average, HoF'er Jack Morris. Now, Lopez is way better than Morris. There is only 1 season in Lopez's career where his ERA was lower 3.61, and it was a year where Lopez pitched only 102.2 innings. Lopez's ERAs have always trailed his FIPs, just like other 'ol buddy, Ricky Nolasco. When you see a major split between ERA and FIP for several years/career, it's not luck. It's a pattern. Side note, a 1.19 WHIP is mediocre. Lopez's WHIP (#41 of 73 qualified starters) is bracketed by household pitching studs like Matt Waldron 3.61 ERA/3.66 FIP and Brandon Pfaadt 4.19 ERA/3.78 FIP. Two Cy Young favorites for next year for sure.
  15. bean5302
    Well, if you can hit it where they ain't, grounders are good, haha. I've heard very good baseball players talking about how the game has changed over the past decade or two in terms of that approach. Back in the day, you could time things up on a 80mph changeup or a 85-90mph fastball. Today, so many pitchers are throwing their fastballs at 95mph or even 100mph there's just not a lot of leeway in between "just make some contact" and "try to hit it somewhere in particular" In Correa's case, it's astonishing how many of the pitches he's seeing are "down and away" Those pitches are extremely hard to lift up into line drives and hard fly balls. It sounds like Correa is trying to find a way to force pitchers to play fair and give him something in the zone. As the Twins lineup gets more and more dangerous, it'll be harder to cheat Correa as well. It's quite a testament to Correa's skills that he's able to find an approach which works. Opposing teams will have to make some decisions. 1. Throw strikes and hope Correa doesn't mash them. 2. Shift fielders to the middle and hope Correa doesn't adjust to pull the ball down the line. 3. Get killed by grounders up the middle.
  16. bean5302
    Dude looks like Rocco. Pass. LOL
  17. bean5302
    The only thing you read in that entire quote was "short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited"
  18. bean5302
    If Correa's philosophy is to hit grounders, I don't think he's going to be successful long term as teams will just adapt their fielding positioning to try and take those hits away. Surprising to see his line drive rate at a terrible 10% since June. I guess he's getting it done and his xBA and xwOBA seem to both look good overall. Him putting the ball on the ground last year was the reason so many people felt it was a career low season. Seems risky to me.
  19. bean5302
    Pablo has never been "right" by the definition fans and the writers on this site talk about. 2021 is the only time he flashed ace caliber results in his career. He's a back end #2 guy if he's "right" which he's been far away from this year.
  20. bean5302
    No joke. This whole "The Twins better be far and away the best team in all of MLB otherwise they're trash, and they have no hope!" trope is seriously BS. The Twins are a good team. An ace makes them a great team in the playoffs. In typical playoff fashion, the favorite wins the series 50-60% of the time. The Twins fans are just used to 1 and out. 1 and out. 3 and out. 1 and out. That's not how the rest of MLB works and why the Twins set an all time record among major sports (not just MLB) for consecutive playoff losses. What changed that? An elite top rotation.
  21. bean5302
    I'm not interested in back end rotation arms. Only playoff caliber arms, and specifically, pitchers would would be the best starter on the team. Bassitt maybe qualifies, but that's awfully dicey. Joe Ryan is defying all odds in performing like a legit, front end #2 this year, but he's not an ace. I mean, good on him, but I don't trust him given his 2nd half swoon every year so far. For people talking about Bassitt being a #4 2020-2024 Bassitt - 3.31 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 WHIP Lopez - 3.82 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP Berrios - 4.03 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.21 WHIP Bassitt is basically as good as Pablo Lopez, though I don't like his bump in BB rate this year. Back end #2 type of pitcher. He's playoff caliber. Berrios is a #3 at this point, and there's reason to suspect he's got some luck on his side with a .252 BABIP this year which, in concert with him being victimized by the deep ball (16.0% HR/FB) is leading to a ghastly 5.07 FIP. The article says Falvey has never paid $20MM for a pitcher. Well, Lopez is making $22MM starting next year, and it seems like a lot of fans have a genuine obsession with making sure every comment, every article, every blog post making sure they take a dig at ownership as being cheap. The Twins' payroll has been $150MM+ the past two years, they're at $131MM right now. They got their TV deal in place, and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that ownership will be willing to open their pockets for a high probability of another playoff run. They made money last year thanks to advancing in the playoffs. Given the same scenario this year, I expect them to invest. Btw, a $40MM pitcher doesn't cost $40MM at the trade deadline because there's only 1/3 of the season left. $40MM = $13MM $30MM = $10MM $20MM = $7MM $10MM = $3MM None of that is likely out of payroll reach for the Twins.
  22. bean5302
    anybody who predicted Woods-Richardson would be a successful starter this year would have been laughed at. He's a totally different pitcher than last year. He's added almost 5mph to his pitches out of the blue. That's nearly unheard of. I think everybody can agree Desclafani wasn't the guy we were looking for. Miranda not making opening day was a real disappointment to me. I felt like he deserved the roster spot, and I'm glad to see him showing his skills to all the doubters and haters out there. He had a ton of them after last year.
  23. bean5302
    Kirilloff is a coaches son. Should we stick him at SS if Correa needs some time on the IL? So I think the whole "coaches son" thing is probably a little overblown. That said, Lee is super smooth and polished out there so I could understand why people would want to see him playing every day at a set position. He looks like he's a veteran fielder while Lewis looks like he's trying to force plays to be a hero too frequently. Pushing Royce into a utility role or another position? I just don't think that's realistic atm.
  24. bean5302
    That'd be a fair step forward in XBH compared to his career averages, and a big step forward in terms of plate appearances as well. Other than his freak 3 triples last year, his line is nearly identical. Projecting 400 AB's (probably 450 PA). 2021 = 18 doubles, 11 HR 2022 = 33 doubles, 13 HR 2023 = 15 doubles, 18 HR 2024 = 15 doubles, 18 HR His launch angle is 13* this year, and 3 of his 4 seasons have a 13* launch angle. He's typically a flat power stroke, line drive kinda power guy so I wouldn't expect him to ever hit a ton of dingers playing for the Twins at Target Field.
  25. bean5302
    Feel free to add your data... @wabene You too.
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