bean5302

Some of both. The Twins need to pound the Guardians into the ground for my personal happiness. I'm not sure why I dislike Cleveland so much, but I just don't like that city to have nice things. It has to remain the same as the hastily made tourism videos.

In defense of Falvey, he further improved his PR making it seem like probably Detroit and Chicago were asking for a lot more from the Twins than other teams intentionally because it was inside the division, though it makes no sense from a rental perspective as it doesn't make the Twins better next year if they get Flaherty or some other rental. Falvey is definitely better in interviews and in front of the camera than, say, Dave St. Peter, Joe Pohlad or Thad Levine.

It's not a rationalization. Also, there's more than 1 version of WAR, and the exact opposite happens when you look at fWAR.

Yeah, that's some optimism there. Gray had a 3.34 ERA at the break, and he's had a couple rough starts in a row. His FIP is still light years ahead of Ober. Take a look at their game log FIPs and you'll see a stark difference between the two. Gray goes out and consistently puts up FIPs which line up with ace level performance (low 3s or below). 13 of Gray's 19 starts have an FIP of 3.33 or lower. 8 of Ober's 20 starts are like that. Ober is pitching well this year, and especially lately with the help of some positive regression. A big key to Ober's improvement is being more efficient. He's getting deeper into games than last year with similar pitch counts. He's not in the same category as Gray, and I don't think he'll get there. That said, Ober looks a little improved over last year and he's making the case to be a playoff starter.

Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division. WC2 & 3 are tied with the Twins and Royals. Seattle (and Houston) and Boston are in striking range of a wild card berth and the Rays aren't totally out of it yet, though they totally raised the white flag so the likelihood of them hanging around is low. https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/league 4 potential spots for the Twins to make the playoffs. 6 teams vying for them.

The irony is the Pohlads just potentially shot themselves in the foot in regard to profit. This penny pinching will potentially have significant ramifications on fan interest next year.

Sonny Gray was runner up for the Cy Young, not Lopez, and Gray has proven his ace pedigree with a 3.30 ERA and 3.27 FIP over the past 6 years. Pablo Lopez got 11pts out of a possible 210pts last year in Cy Young voting to finish 7th. Same 6 year span 2019-2024: Some ace performance level 3.15 ERA, 2.90 FIP Tyler Glasnow 3.16 ERA, 3.14 FIP Corbin Burnes 3.23 ERA, 3.10 FIP Zack Wheeler 3.30 ERA, 3.27 FIP Sonny Gray Gotcha some #2-ish guys here 3.42 ERA, 3.88 FIP Marcus Stroman 3.48 ERA, 3.91 FIP Chris Bassitt 3.76 ERA, 3.03 FIP Dylan Cease This is what #3s look about like 3.91 ERA, 3.85 FIP Nathan Eovaldi 3.97 ERA, 3.60 FIP Pablo Lopez, Ace & Cy Young Favorite! 3.98 ERA, 4.11 FIP Jose Berrios Lopez obviously became the guy he is today after his first two seasons, and if you throw those out he'd now potentially slot nicely into that mid/back #2 category. 3.78 ERA, 3.49 FIP. Not even close to ace territory.

Nope. You just said you don't have the data to calculate your numbers. You just made some numbers up because you liked them. By the way, it was reported the Twins TV revenue was $54MM in 2023 so at least start with something valid.

That's be the first time in history the CEO and President reports to an EVP, wouldn't it?

I thought we might finally stop hearing the writers of this site declaring Pablo Lopez "Ace" despite him never achieving full season results close to earning that title. As his ERA eclipsed 5.00 through the first half, the hype was just bottled up temporarily, and I was mistaken. A couple good starts, and the old ace moniker quickly gets dragged out of the cellar. I should have learned from the Byron Buxton MVP stuff I had to read for 9 years. Nice to see the Twins avoid the sweep and stay 2 games up on Boston to avoid falling out of the playoffs. I'm glad Lopez pitched well, and I hope he can continue to outperform his abilities to give the Twins their best shot at making, and even advancing in the playoffs.

I'm sure they did ask for something like that. Apparently, Falvey forgot to keep in touch or something because what Fedde & Flaherty actually went for was dramatically less.

Either you're purely and totally speculating without much more than a shred of knowledge here or you've got some deep inside information on this. I think I had read the Twins wanted to stream and MLB (Manfred) put the kibosh on it. Here's a link to the front office. https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office Chairman - Jim Pohlad (also controlling Owner) President & CEO - Dave St. Peter Executive Vice President, Brand Strategy & Growth & Executive Chair - Joe Pohlad. President, Baseball Operations, Derek Falvey. Board Members: Chairman, Jim, Bill Pohlad, Bob Pohlad, Joe Pohald, Dave St. Peter. Joe is not part of the ownership group to the best of my knowledge, which consists of his dad, Bob Pohlad, his two uncles Jim and Bill. Joe is the executive chair and the voice of the franchise. Joe handles the day to day operations and would advise/report to Dave St. Peter and the ownership group (Jim Pohlad). Derek Falvey reports directly to Joe, who dual reports to Dave St. Peter and Jim Pohlad. The structure and titles in the Twins' organization do not reflect it being "Joe's show"

No Twins team will likely ever meet your criteria for being a World Series competitor. The 1987 Twins team was one of the worst teams to make it to the playoffs. Had they not gone out and gotten Don Baylor, we probably wouldn't be talking about them as World Series Champions.

I'm honestly not super concerned about the bullpen. I'm concerned about how the rotation will fare in the playoffs should the Twins make it, and I expect they will.

I thought I made it clear I was talking about this year in specific. If you feel they're running things competently this year, I'd have to say we're not going to find any common ground worth noting.

Richards doesn't generally give up a lot of hard contact, but he walks too many batters so when the hard contact shows up, it's generally a rough outing I'd imagine. I'm not sure what role the Twins really have for him.

@Ted Schwerzler just to note, Levine DID pursue the Red Sox opportunity, but the Red Sox quickly eliminated him. He didn't get a 2nd round interview. https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/10/red-sox-baseball-ops-search-narrows-as-twins-gm-eliminated-from-mix.html That aside, the Pohlads have really screwed fans this year. I mean, yeah. What can you say? While I don't think the Twins' ownership is bottom 5, they certainly were this year. Right there with the White Sox, Angels, Rockies, Marlins. Their moves reek of incompetence and poor business management skills. There are some commenters who still defend the Pohlads cutting payroll, and I was fine with the cut during the offseason. I believe, and still do, there was sufficient payroll to build a team without the glaring weakness (ace) we currently have. Falvey decided to add depth, depth and more depth. His prerogative. That said, it's wholly inappropriate for ownership to kneecap the GM in the playoff scenario we're currently facing. 1. Reduction of payroll after a positive operating income last year. 2. Keeping Dave St. Peter in charge when he's failed year after year after year to understand his market and improve attendance, in essence, blaming the fans for not attending rather than holding failed management accountable. 3. Reckless and damaging public statements from ownership and executive leadership. ("Right size" 'She'll rock the dress' "surprised and disappointed we haven't drawn better", "we're not in the market for those players", "you see that with the... Orioles...") 4. A complete about-face on how the Twins are planning to operate. Shifting from mid-market to small market while having just entered into big, long term contracts which make such a shift virtually impossible. 5. Increasing ticket prices, understanding the product had enhanced value, but failing to invest after asking fans to improve investment. 6. Throwing their popular broadcasters under the bus like Bremer and Provus. 7. Doubling down with Diamond Sports for a TV deal and the absolute disaster which unfolded as a result. 7. Failing to take responsibility for business decisions which led to decreased fan attendance and knee capping the front office to make needed improvements at the deadline. The Pohlads do not understand what they're doing. It's clear they've chosen the wrong voice "Joe" to lead the team through such an unstable course, and they've completely misjudged the fanbase's attitude.

Okay so why didn't the Twins get Flaherty? He went for the equivalent of Schobel and De Andrade. I think fans, especially fans who invested in the team for a season ticket package like myself, deserve to be ticked off. We put our money into the team. Now, obviously everything will be forgiven if the Twins win the World Series, but if they don't... even if they make it and watch a winnable game go south with a guy like Ober or Woods Richardson coughing up rough start vs. Flaherty who pitches excellent, there will be the what if. What if the ownership of the Twins was better?

...that's what you got from my post? That's certainly not the point I'm attempting to make or a point I consider valid. Remember back in 2011 when the Twins were expected to make the playoffs? How'd that turn out? The Twins were favorites after 2010. They were expected to be perennial contenders. They had can't miss prospects like on this list https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/19/1091423/top-20-minnesota-twins-prospects Not one of those prospects truly panned out as expected in the near future. Gibson was the only one of them who made a significant contribution for the Twins before 2015, but he was far from the ace the Twins were hoping for. Miguel Sano was the only other MLB regular starter who came out of our top 20. Teams who horde prospects are almost universally known as "rebuilding." They typically rock out to 90 loss seasons, and when the door opens, they spend money, trade prospects and go for a title. Baltimore is putting their money where their mouth is. Kansas City is putting their money where their mouth is. Pittsburgh refused to trade away assets. Even pathetic, perennially cash strapped, lowly Cleveland acquired talent at the deadline.

4.56 FIP. Festa's giving up like 3HR/9 right now. He's not punching any October tickets like that, but the last two starts produced solid results, even if the metrics weren't outstanding.

That's all great... except what was proposed is Dobnak will guaranteed wind up with this hypothetical mystery interested MLB team if they want him for $1MM. Hard to do that in your solution to the problem, there. The only way it can happen is the Twins release Dobnak. I should have put that into point 4.

Gleeman thinks the Twins will cut payroll even further this offseason. If ownership is unwilling to even make a minor salary pick up to grab Flaherty when the team is poised for the playoffs, I wouldn't hold my breath on what they'll do in the offseason. Even Cleveland was more in at the deadline than Minnesota. By the way, the AL Central is winnable this year. The Royals are building. The Tigers are building. There's no guarantee the Twins are even in a position to be .500 next year. A couple injuries, and we're cooked.

1. Dobnak isn't in the minors. 2. $750k left on the books for 2024 ($2.25MM). 3. $3MM in 2025. Are you talking about the sum of two years' salary? I honestly don't know where you're going with this. Are you assuming 1. the Twins will DFA Dobnak when he has 3 options remaining, and that 2. Dobnak will then clear waivers, and that 3. after he clears waivers only 1 team in MLB would be willing to offer Dobnak even a MiLB contract so 4. that one hypothetical team who wants Dobnak is guaranteed to get him at league minimum? I'd say there are a lot of ifs, some less and some more plausible than others.

Agreed. I don't expect to be a season ticket holder next year. I need to "right size" my attendance.

From MLBTR If the Pohlads want to be more like the Rays and Orioles, maybe they should consider both of those teams have made significant moves and the Orioles have been tied to big names at this deadline. This trade was a nothingburger. I don't have anything against Richards, but I really don't see how he makes our bullpen better. Just call up Varland and put him where he belongs. In the bullpen.