bean5302

Yeah, baseball owners pushed hard to keep Cuban out over the past 15 years, but the landscape of baseball has changed a lot. If the Ishbia's start making some progress on their attempt, part of me now wonders if Cuban would come back around since he's (was at least) a huge baseball fan. Possibly unfortunate that he's pursued the Cubs previously so Cuban might be more in on the White Sox. I don't like the idea of a competent owner being in charge of the south siders.

When it comes to Eloy Jimenez, I didn't see the improved batted ball metrics on Fangraphs, anyway. 15.3% Line Drive (lowest/worst of his career) 56.1% Ground Ball (highest/worst of his career) 28.6% Fly Ball (lowest/worst of his career) 13.7% Pop Up (2nd highest/worst of his career) 7.8% Barrel (worst of his career) Jimenez is a ground ball machine... which would be a real asset if he were a pitcher. He needs to rework his swing pretty badly to get the ball up a little more to generate line drives and fly balls with his 60 grade power. He's looking too much like Tim Anderson's decline at the plate for me to sign him to an MLB contract, but I agree with other people that I'd take Jimenez on a MiLB contract as I think he's better insurance than Yunior Severino, anyway.

I think I'd play Severino wherever there's an injury replacement need. He's MiLB roster filler. Eeles and McCusker are pretty interesting guys since they've more than held their own out of Indy ball.

Seems like he beat estimates by a tick. Should be interesting to see how he does in Philadelphia. If Kep can find a way to regain a step, he should be pretty good for them, and maybe secure himself a decent 2-3 year contract to end things out.

Tough to count on Julien, but even Julien hit better than Brooks Lee. At least one of the two should start the season in St. Paul, but neither is needed on the 26 man if the Twins keep Castro. I'd like to see Lee and Julien hit well for 200+ PA at AAA before calling their names. Of course, having a young player be healthy for 200 PA for the Twins is a near miracle in and of itself these days...

I don't think I reacted with a "disagree" on your post, but I can understand why people would. Taking a quick peek at BTV... Alcantara = +47 Luzardo = +22 Total = +69 Keaschall = +23 Festa = +20 Julien = +17 Matthews = +16 Miranda = +16 Gonzalez = +7 Raya = +4 Total = +103 Your opinion on virtually every single one of those Twins players comes across pessimistic in terms of expected performance or perceived value for that performance. Your opinion of Alcantara and Luzardo comes across as optimistic and ignores the health risks or likelihood they'll be available in a playoff scenario at all. Alcantara and Luzardo both had terrible seasons in their last season on the mound (probably injury related, but how sure are we really?), and I expect Luzardo may need TJ. Combined, the two pitchers will make $23MM next year. I also don't like a 6 man rotation at all. I don't see any benefit to health, and you're replacing starts from your best 5 pitchers with a back end arm who might not even be MLB caliber.

Fangraphs had Keaschall as a borderline top 100 prospect in May, when Keaschall was absolutely destroying A+. Keaschall's performance dipped quite a bit in AA as his power dropped, but he was still very good. Unfortunately, the TJ + poor fielding grades + going from elite production to very good production likely hit his stock a bit. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-top-100-prospects-update/

The only reason to ever extend a player or sign them as a free agent is because you can't replace the production from developing prospects. Joe Ryan's a good pitcher, but expectations of him taking things to the next level at age 29+ seem overly optimistic. With a career 3.92 ERA and 3.85 FIP, he's a 3 WAR kinda guy. Does a 3 WAR pitcher seem out of the realm of reason for Matthews, Festa, Raya, Soto or another prospect to be able to replicate 3 seasons from now?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/twins-have-listened-to-trade-offers-on-pablo-lopez.html Yeah, and there was a different feel to this than the Correa report. Lopez easily provides the Twins the most options in terms of payroll issues and potential return back. There would be a dozen teams bidding for him based on analyst valuations.

As @Brock Beauchamp mentioned, the Cubs just bailed on a Luzardo deal due to medicals. Given Luzardo's "stress reaction" (aka microfractures in his vertebrae), along with the UCL strain from last year, and I'd be awfully concerned about him. 2019 - (March) Shoulder strain, missed 2 months 2019 - (July) Lat strain, missed a month 2021 - Punched a desk playing a video game and broke his pinky, missed 2 months 2022 - Left forearm strain, missed 3 months 2024 - (April) Left elbow "tightness" missed 1 month. 2024 - (June) Back stress reaction (microfractures in vertebrea) missed remaining 3 months But also... why would the Twins make this deal? The organization is already $10MM overbudget, adding another $6MM for Luzardo seems unrealistic. Also, the team couldn't score runs last year, not really starting pitching. If the Twins are looking to add high end rotation arms to protect from depth issues, Luzardo has had only 1 full, healthy season in the last 6 years. I could see this move if the Twins were going to clear space by moving Lopez, but other than that, I don't see it.

Correct. He was in AAA because he earned his promotion to AAA in 560 AA plate appearances that season. It's not like he had an Emma season with 150 PA at AA, a bunch of warning flags, and then a promotion to AAA because the clock was ticking. Chourio had nothing left to prove below AAA. Also, top position player prospects generally don't play full seasons at AAA, and Chourio was a 19 year old with little left to prove in the minors which is why Chourio opened 2024 on the MLB roster as a starting outfielder.

The Twins are selling. They're not going to commit new owners to long term contracts. Just for the record, Chourio was in AAA before he got extended, was a legitimate CF, and had a better track record with better tools than Rodriguez or Jenkins.

I'd want a heck of a lot better than a non-prospect like Canario. Maybe somebody like Pablo Aliendo.

2 years ago? Sure. Today, absolutely not. No team is risking a Phantom IL trip where an obvious grievance could be filed, especially not for a rule 5 pick.

I think that's a pretty extreme take. I don't think Buxton is a negative, but I certainly wouldn't have given him that 7 year deal because I don't think any team in baseball would have given Buxton more than 3 years in free agency. Hunter was not as good as Buxton when they were both healthy and on the field. It's just Buxton is a half a year player.

Agreed, they're potentially great owners, just that people shouldn't expect them to be champions of the masses. The community benefactor owners have existed in the past, like Walter A. Haas, Jr. was for the Athletics in the 80s and 90s, but I'm not sure they exist now?

I have concerns about SWR. A sample size of 7 is not relevant IMHO. The assumption is he was gassed at 115 innings at age 23 in his 7th professional season. His pitches weren't great overall, but there were flashes of his curve and changeup moving in ways that would allow them to be good weapons. It seemed like hitters adjusted quickly to his repertoire as scouting reports got out. While SWR's was initially producing good results with a 92mph velocity, he seemed to improve as the velo ticked to 94 before falling off. Unfortunately, that 92mph velocity effort which reappeared towards the end of the year got hammered. So is SWR viable with a 92mph average heater or will he have to maintain the short peak he had in the middle of the year? Why wasn't his conditioning up to the task, and why would it be expected to improve going forward?

You mean like $1 hot dogs, and $5 cans of beer the Twins had last year? Or being able to bring in free food and water? Unlike the Twins, the Suns don't allow outside food, but you can bring in 1 bottle of sealed water (like the Twins allow). The price list there is what you call "loss leaders" in marketing and business terms. Levy Restaurants & Concessions runs the concessions for the Suns, and I the Suns probably lose money on each of those items after the cost of items and Levy's fees/cuts. The idea is to generate upsells and interest in the team. Increasing the prestige and interest in attending the Suns games is step 1 for the Ishbia's. Once season ticket holder packages are filled and there's a waiting list, prices will start increasing. The Suns were one of the most pathetically attended games in the NBA for a couple years (full seasons not impacted by COVID) prior to the Ishbia's purchasing them. The Ishbia's understand marketing and revenue generation. If they buy the Twins, I suspect the focus will be on public engagement and making the Twins a prestigious event to attend. They'll keep prices low, get those season tickets sold out, then prices will skyrocket, game day revenues and profits will soar and the team's value will increase. They're not doing this for the poor, downtrodden masses. They are not your friends. They're business owners looking for a return on investment.

Personally, I'm sick and tired of 1 year re-tread rentals. The Twins need a guy who can be an every day center fielder for the foreseeable future. The team should trade for that player.

Carl Pohlad was born in 1915. He moved to California after graduating in 1933 when he was 18. He wasn't in any position of authority at the bank. He was an odd jobs guy who got his start milking cows and driving the bank manager around... He boxed for extra money while going to school at Gonzaga in Spokane, Washington. He was on the football team at Gonzaga which might require hiding his name in an occasional "prize fight" not for a used car salesman being scared for his business reputation, LOL.

Castellano would immediately file a grievance and MLB would take all of 24hrs to conclude their investigation and suspend Falvey for probably 3+ years or so since Eppler's suspension just recently wouldn't have been enough to avoid a blatant use of the Phantom IL.

I think the exercise would probably involve Boras and Lewis projecting Lewis' salary and doing a risk analysis. What does 1 or two years of free agency cost Royce? It costs him prime extension years. This is overly simplistic, but something like: Prime 3 WAR, 4 WAR, 5 WAR+ a30 = 4yrs, 5yrs, 6+yrs a31 = 4yrs, 4yrs, 5+yrs a32 = 3yrs, 4yrs, 4+yrs a33 = 3yrs, 4yrs, 4yrs a34 = 2yrs, 3yrs, 3yrs a35 = 2yr, 2yrs, 3yrs a36 = 1yr, 2yrs, 2yrs Buying out 2 years of free agency with a $70MM contract costs Lewis: +280% < 2 WAR = -45MM (Lewis is ahead) +175% 2 WAR = -30MM (Lewis is ahead) -29% 3 WAR = 28MM total or (2MM + 26MM next contract) -48% WAR = 64MM total or (24MM + 40MM next contract) -62% 5 WAR = 113MM total or (33MM + 80MM next contract) < 2 WAR 2 WAR 3 WAR 4 WAR 5 WAR 6 WAR > 6 WAR 2025 26 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2026 27 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 2027 28 4.5 6 10 12 14 15 18 2028 29 6 8 15 18 20 22 25 Through Arb 15.8 20.3 32.3 38.3 43.3 47.3 55.3 2029 30 5 10 20 28 30 36 40 2030 31 5 10 20 28 30 36 40 2031 32 5 10 20 28 30 36 40 2032 33 5 8 20 28 30 36 40 2033 34 8 16 28 30 36 40 2034 35 6 16 18 30 36 40 2035 36 10 18 30 36 40 2036 37 8 18 16 36 40 2037 38 5 12 16 20 40 2038 39 40 2039 40

Yeah, it's not too sneaky. It's a tongue in cheek reference to the movie "Office Space" in Peter Gibbons' meeting with the "Bob's" haha

You've been corrected I don't know how many times on this. Pohlad milked cows on a farm, and then did odd jobs for a bank. He was promoted to driving the car for the manager who delivered foreclosure letters, and then sometimes delivered the foreclosure letters directly as part of his job during the Great-Depression. Pohald's mom made money to help put food on the table by washing the neighbors' clothes for them because they were dirt poor and having problems putting food on the table. Pohlad was in high school at the time. Like any billionaire, you're going to find plenty of questionable business practices in their history. All of them.

I saw very little different between Smith/Ryan2 regimes and Falvey except Falvey's front office was much worse at drafting/development, at least for the first few years.