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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Maybe. But I’m doubtful. If they like Martin that much in CF, I would have thought they’d went for more of a bat-first guy…a guy with more upside/power offensively. But, I’m speculating, of coarse.
  2. jkcarew
    Yep. But, fwiw, the Santana signing is the one I hate way more. Had options there if Kirilloff doesn’t work out…and I think you had to get someone who is a true CF…with the possibility/likelihood that that spot could need 80+ games.
  3. jkcarew
    This isn’t that complicated, IMO. You have to have a real CF to play 80+ games at the position. And you have to plan on that…you just have to. All Buxton seasons end the same, and this isn’t the first year he’s gone into a season healthy. It doesn’t matter. The bad news is they don’t think Martin can handle that type of exposure in CF. The question is, why not just sign MAT? Losing Miller doesn’t bother me a bit.
  4. jkcarew
    Offensively, the obvious comp is Owen Miller.
  5. jkcarew
    It’s good to have decent upside options with options. And he’s also a reasonable reason to NOT pack the roster with iffy veterans.
  6. jkcarew
    I don’t know. You COULD look at those 4 clubs and say the Twins have the clearest path to the playoffs. And the playoffs have always been his thing, his time to shine.
  7. jkcarew
    202 career post season PA with a 893 OPS. Can still play SS and CF (and 2B). 801 career OPS agains lefties (but falling pretty fast). Martin is the only in-house options that MIGHT check that many boxes by himself. And, in 2024, Hernandez would probably provide a much higher floor in that type of role than any of the rookies. I ‘d love to have that security blanket in the post season, but not sure it raises any regular season bar enough to warrant taking opportunities from the new guys (with whom you can mix and match through the coarse of the season since they all have options…at least if you haven’t already packed the roster with too many mediocre veterans). Maybe more of a guy you would try to get at the deadline if you have lost depth at SS, CF, or 2B, due to injury…and/or performance issues with the young depth.
  8. jkcarew
    The Twins have clearly established a track record of ‘protecting’ him when he’s playing. Not going to cut him loose on the bases.
  9. jkcarew
    I mean…his OBP was 294 last year, career-wise it’s 300.
  10. jkcarew
    I think the conversation was related to sleeper 2024 options for the big club. Jenkins doesn’t figure in in that regard.
  11. jkcarew
    I guess I was in the wrong neighborhood.😳
  12. jkcarew
    That’s definitely an “Optimistic” take on it. Still, the motivation for any act/decision is almost always the most obvious and simple. As Deep Throat said (not that one…the other one), “Follow the money” Their stated plan (which we hope is short-term) is to constrain payroll…and hope. A limping Buxton in 2024, was only ever going to get us an Austin Martin or maybe a MAT. The answer to an iffy Kirilloff has already been rendered in Santana. I’d like to agree, but I don’t think this tells us anything about how they REALLY feel about Buxton and Kirilloff.
  13. jkcarew
    Knocked him all the way from Jose Barrios to Adam Johnson. Don’t remember Adam Johnson? Exactly.
  14. jkcarew
    He really wasn’t ‘bad’ offensively last year when you look under the hood. I think the injury affected his defensive range more than anything (and probably his base running, although, I haven’t looked at that data). Offensively, his BABiP took a major dive, well below his career average. When that happens, you would expect the batted ball data to at least hint at a reason….gb/fb ratio spike, softer ev, and/or less consistent line drive %, pulling more, etc. Non of that happened. EV actually ticked up from 2022. Meanwhile the whiff and K rates really didn’t change much either. And it kinda meets the eye ball test…seems a ton of ground ball hit relatively well, right at someone, and it seemed like every line drive was caught. Until the playoffs.
  15. jkcarew
    Right…a DH is the whole, or low bar, (offensively) for a left-handed bat to address. Or somebody that can slide Julien or Wallner to DH, while providing more offense than Larnach/Santana which seem like the LH DH options currently. I think the solve we’ll get is Lee. Might work out. His LH numbers have been solid. Unclear on how/if they think they can address the vulnerabilities against lefties.
  16. jkcarew
    No..I guess the question is, can Martinez play 1B? (Hasn’t much.) If he can, he could be in the lineup basically every day at either 1B or DH. (You’d have to part ways with Santana in that scenario… if/when Kirilloff proves healthy…and the FO is sure to gag at wasting that money.) But if Martinez can only DH, you’re probably right. Still fwiw, Martinez has been a much better hitter than Buxton against right-handed pitching over his career. A lot better. I’d be willing to sit Buxton when he’s not playing CF, in a scenario with JD Martinez…Buxton just isn’t very valuable as a DH against right-handed pitching. You just make sure his off days are against right-handed starters, which shouldn’t be a problem. But the FO ain’t going to do that…even though it would be moot for the approx 50% of the season Buxton is all but guaranteed to miss. Anyway…here we have the reasons to get Martinez…and the reasons it’s about 110% that it won’t happen.
  17. jkcarew
    If Vasquez can give us an 85-ish OPS+ (his career average), it sure would give us some breathing room regarding any Jeffers regression. To me, seemed like there was some real improvement with Jeffers beyond the high BABiP. Hope that proves to be the case.
  18. jkcarew
    The sample size against lefties is always ‘small’. But that doesn’t mean all that much when you need to win a game against a lefty starter, or get on base against a left-handed reliever in high leverage. His unfavorable numbers are not limited to his time in St. Paul…they were poor at Wichita also. Needs to improve or simply give it up and focus on the left-handed swing. 25-man Conundrum, because if the numbers as a left-handed batter translate, he really does make the club better in 75% of scenarios. Move Julien to 1B/DH, and away we go.
  19. jkcarew
    Would be HUGE if he’s healthy and effective…especially if that can be the case in October.
  20. jkcarew
    Unless they can sign and draft amateurs, and then develop them…year after year… on a par with the likes of Tampa Bay, it’s not going to be pretty. This is where it’s actually bad to be in the ALC…because the FO can pretend to compete year after year, without ACTUALLY competing. And the general fan base swallows that bait…while chalking up relatively frequent, but short, playoff runs to “bad luck”.
  21. jkcarew
    I agree with JD Martinez. But, he’s a right handed bat and would be a ‘starter’ at DH, and/or 1B. I guess my assumption is that (regardless of what they ‘should’ do)…a platoon bat is all that’s in the budget…if even that. And in that scenario, a right-handed bat has a much lower threshold to clear in order to make the club better. A left-handed bat would have to be better than Lewis, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa, Kepler, Wallner, and Julien to play against right-handed pitching. High bar. Meanwhile it’s pretty easy to improve that group against left-handed pitching…and to exceed the likes of Farmer, etc as platoon options. Regardless, if a left-handed bat that clears that bar is out there and available…yes, I’d take him at DH, or to force the likes of Wallner or Julien to DH.
  22. jkcarew
    Where… DH? (or 2B, if you slide Julien to DH)? I would think the priority would be a right-handed bat. With a lefty like Larnach to fill the DH role only if by consolation…the failure to land a right-handed bat, or Martin/Prato/whoever not being ready. A guy like Martin (if deemed ready) could play frequently between 2B, and outfield. FWIW, Polanco takes away a decent-ish right-handed bat with him as well.
  23. jkcarew
    I don’t think the favorite Larnach, either. I guess if the club doesn’t break down and sign MAT…AND Larnach tears it up in spring training? Still think it’s a most likely a right-handed bat with more defensive value and/or flexibility.
  24. jkcarew
    They were forthcoming with the news on payroll decline because they knew any stop-gap one-year TV deal would bring in way less money than the previous deal had on an annual basis. And they were correct. Many millions less. The narrative/insinuation that they “ended up getting a deal, but are pocketing the money” is ludicrous. They knew they would end up with SOME type of deal (and apparently, they were overconfident that it would include a solve for blackouts.) Let’s wait to see what they do or don’t do in the next few weeks and at the deadline.
  25. jkcarew
    Yes, they are both early enough in their developmental that it is still yet to be determined. But De Andrade seems clearly ahead offensively as of now. Last summer, his age 19 year in Fort Myers was significantly better than was Miller’s the previous season. And it’s not like Miller set a high offensive bar last season at Cedar Rapids. I do like how Miller seems to be able to get on base via BB.
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