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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Me likey. And no, I don't see it as an 'insurance policy' regarding any one player. It's an insurance policy against several players' performance or injury issues. And if you don't need the insurance (we can always hope)...he's a guy that's good enough offensively to give 400+ PA just based on rest and match-ups.
  2. jkcarew
    How big is your roster?
  3. jkcarew
    He's a clear upgrade to Adrianza. Someone good enough offensively that you can move him around and give him 400-500 PA, even in scenarios where others are performing and relatively healthy. Sign him. Other bigger needs (BP) don't preclude upgrading here.
  4. jkcarew
    But my point is not that the opener can't be 'effective' or that maxing the number of pitchers you can carry isn't 'smart'. My point is, I'm not super excited about innovations that will lead to making it harder to string hits and score runs. And that's what is going on with openers and using more and more pitchers in smarter ways. When the rubber was placed at 60-6 in the late 1800's and then set at the current height in 1968, I don't think anyone had in mind 5, 6, 7 pitchers per game throwing alternately from the right and left, and max-efforting every single pitch. Should the opener concept be somehow illegal? I wouldn't even try to go there. But where it gets scary to me is with roster expansion. When 13 pitchers is good, 14 is better. Roster expansion has already come up as a likely topic for the next CBA. (And what about the pace-of-play challenges?). Where does it end? I'm looking for changes that limits/disincents the use of large numbers of pitchers and promotes people getting on base with contact.
  5. jkcarew
    Only if you think the opener movement isn't at least a contributing factor to the growing momentum for carrying more pitchers on the active roster...and, in fact, the growing momentum to expand active rosters. The theory aside, manager's are going to manage (or at least want to) the back end of games the same way they always have. When a manager is sitting in the sixth inning tied or down by one in a low scoring game, he's not going to care that the 'follower' should have no problem getting through the sixth. At the very least, it's another reason pushing organizations to agree to roster expansion in the next CBA. And once that extra roster spot comes along, what do you think teams that have managed to acquire defensively-flexible players will do with it? So, am I afraid of it? No...just some of the potential long-term consequences.
  6. jkcarew
    Nothing says "unfair labor practices" like a $300 million contract.
  7. jkcarew
    Me-thinks towards the end there, the Padres bidded primarily against....themselves. Also an I-told-you-so moment for those that said money trumps all. (Not me.) I thought the organization would matter some to him. But (other than the weather) this is among the lowest in the pecking order...small, actually ignored, market and historic ineptitude. Doesn't mean he can't lead a turn-around...but if he doesn't, the casual fan will not even see him for the next 8 years, except maybe at all-star games.
  8. jkcarew
    In the 3-man bench scenario...I don't want Astudillo over Cave as an outfield option. I don't want him to be playing the middle infield. Ever. (Can Rosario?) That leaves backup catcher. I'm not sure Astudillo is a better hitter than Garver (yes, despite the magical 97 PA last year, the amazing bat flip, and the two batting practice home runs). But if not Garver, Astudillo's in Rochester waiting for injuries or under-performance. One or the other will happen soon enough...it always does.
  9. jkcarew
    Tough call. I want him to be a starter, but there is all kinds of evidence staring me in the face that says it might be a good call at this point to see how his stuff plays out of the bullpen. He's worn down every year...K/9 falling steadily and significantly as he pitches more innings...and still has never made it to 150 innings. Last year finished AAA season at 6.8 K/9, and a 1.29 whip...fine, but not exactly hinting at top-of-rotation MLB type. I'd give him another year in the starter role, but can see the rationale for the move.
  10. jkcarew
    Here's who gets "robbed" in wOBA: guys that take the same swing at every pitch no matter the pitcher, no matter the location of the pitch, no matter the count, no matter the game situation, no matter the defensive alignment. And dead pull hitters, although that's a bit redundant as most dead pull hitters fit the first description. If everyone knows exactly where the ball is going to go every time you make solid contact...that your fault, not bad luck.
  11. jkcarew
    The Twins Will Commit To Competency Yay!
  12. jkcarew
    Sano is who he is. Meanwhile, Buxton is going to revert to the two hottest months of his career? Buxton's K-rate was 32%, with 3 HR over 109 PA in sept/oct of 2017....what had been found in August was already becoming lost again by the time that season ended. Do I think Buxton can make substantial and sustainable adjustments? Yes. Do I think he has a track record of being able to do that so far. No. I don't see Buxton as being any different than Sano in that regard. I'm cautiously optimistic that they both start breaking through in 2019.
  13. jkcarew
    Agreed. With the 3-man bench we are entering an era where the "one outstanding tool" bench player might be on the way to extinction. Now, you're forced to go with the multiple-tool player even when none of those tools are particularly good.
  14. jkcarew
    Exactly. Never quite understood the joy posters took in dwelling on Grossman's deficiencies. Wasn't his fault that he was over-exposed during extended periods by the Twins total lack of organizational depth in the OF. It's actually pretty easy to make an argument that if you KNEW Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler were going to have healthy seasons, that Grossman would be more valuable than Cave. Easy. Obviously, since you can't take that risk, Cave is a no-brainer. Still, there is a 100% chance that the Twins will have periods in 2019 where they'll suffer for not having Grossman's right-handed bat against lefties.
  15. jkcarew
    Especially, when the deal won't be any kind of barrier for future trading. Toward the middle/end of the contract, Kepler will be, at a minimum, a solid strong-side platoon option at a corner or 1B. He would be dumpable in a heartbeat at a trade deadline with this contract....if it came to that. Smart deal by Twins...slightly surprised, but not shocked, that Kepler's camp pulled the trigger on this type of deal at this point in time.
  16. jkcarew
    Not sure Sano striking out 200 times would be a bad thing. It would mean he was healthy...and if it comes with a lot of walks and HR's...but, yeah it would be fantastic if all that came with fewer K's. fwiw, if Buxton has the fantastic year that many here predict (hope) will happen, he could be real close to 200 K's, as well. At his career rate, that would only take a little over 600 PA. At the 550 PA you cite for Sano, Buxton would get rung up 175 times...so he better be hitting the ball over the fence, as well.
  17. jkcarew
    If I was Will Clark, I'd hang this over my mantle... Babe Ruth Ruth Similarity: 23-Will Clark (952.2) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 24-Jeff Heath (940.7) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 25-Chuck Klein (905.4) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 26-Ted Williams (913.0) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 27-Ted Williams (908.8) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 28-Ted Williams (914.9) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 29-Ted Williams (903.6) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 30-Ted Williams (883.5) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 31-Ted Williams (896.0) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 32-Ted Williams (878.3) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 33-Ted Williams (810.6) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 34-Manny Ramirez (790.5) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 35-Jimmie Foxx (815.6) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 36-Jimmie Foxx (816.7) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 37-Jimmie Foxx (785.9) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 38-Barry Bonds (756.3) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 39-Barry Bonds (779.8) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C 40-Barry Bonds (782.5) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
  18. jkcarew
    Seems everything you hear about this kid is that he's got the entire package from the mental/emotional/maturity standpoint. The kind of player where if he's an average hitter, he's going to be very valuable, if he's a better than average hitter he's a perennial all-star, and if he's a top-end hitter...well, be still my heart.
  19. jkcarew
    Yeah, certainly going to be hard with that organization to crack into the everyday lineup in the outfield. But I'd think Austin would have been out there more than he was...there's always some opportunity. Gardner has been terrible against lefties for some time now. But he was continuing to get the play in left, before Stanton and during periods when Hicks was out, etc. Honestly, though...I have no idea how good or bad Austin would be in the OF...only suggesting that I think that ship has past. If it could work out, they should be looking at it, as it would be great to have a legitimate right-handed bat out there when needed. And so far, it's been just as difficult to discern whether Rooker will be considered a MLB outfielder.
  20. jkcarew
    Hope you’re right. Remain sceptical.
  21. jkcarew
    Three different major league managers have seen fit to give Austin 3 of his 65 (most with the Yankees) MLB starts in the outfield. And the last time he played more games in the OF than 1B/DH was the 2015 season. Since then, very few appearances in the OF, and even fewer starts there. Those numbers would suggest that he’s proven to a number of managers at various levels that he’s not a serviceable outfielder.
  22. jkcarew
    So, you’re saying the club will go with a 4-man bench once the schedule picks up? What makes you think that? All indications are that 13 pitchers will be carried for the bulk of the year. Makes the topic moot.
  23. jkcarew
    I think you act aggressively on the technology to capture the data...and conservatively with how you use the data. There's a lot to be learned with how to do the most good (and the least bad) with the data. But the first step is to acquire it. So, good.
  24. jkcarew
    Excellent analysis! The outs are going to come in bunches...fast and furious. The ball better leave the park on a regular basis...even if it does, there are going to be long stretches of excruciatingly painful offensive baseball. And this from the article regarding facing left-handed pitching...the problem here is that Austin won't be on the 25-man roster...or at least BOTH Austin and Cron won't be on the roster.. Twins hitters who are better than average against lefties over their careers: .937 Tyler Austin .927 Nelson Cruz .846 Miguel Sano .776 C.J. Cron That’s it. Considering the composition of the other teams in the division, however, this doesn’t seem like such a bad problem to have. While there are fewer guys who hold their own against lefties, those top three can really mash.
  25. jkcarew
    I like it. Polanco's performance has steadily improved since he's become a full-time player, the suspension not withstanding. I'm with those that don't see this as anything other than locking up an asset that's likely to hold or appreciate in value. I don't think it means they are committed to Polanco for the life of the contract, nor do I think it means that Gordon or Javier are automatically out of luck. It's worth repeating that the extension likely improves Polanco's trade value around the anticipated arrival time of Lewis and Javier.
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