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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Thanks. But if something else was up, they could have simply DFA'd Vargas and deferred adding Cave to the 40-man, until they wanted/needed him on the 25-man. Curious. I guess the only thing that's clear at this point is that 30 years from now both Vargas and Gil will be in the Hall of Fame.
  2. jkcarew
    Still not clear on if Cave automatically (or otherwise) is added to the 40-man.
  3. jkcarew
    The stuff definitely looks good in the 3 (of 8) innings I've seen. The 3 innings I saw were against mostly minor-league players. But let's see him do it at least at the AAA level for a while, before we assume he's going to be immediately better than Gibson. His demonstrated dominance in the minors was at the single-A level. At AA last year, hit/walk rates both took a hit and results were not 'knocking-on-the-door' results. If he's made the sustainable break-through with a pitch, let's see it in at least AAA results before we throw him into MLB games that should matter in terms of a playoff chase.
  4. jkcarew
    My gut tells me Joe would be willing to come back with limited role...almost regardless of what his results are this year. A lot of currently unknown variables regarding whether that would make sense for the 2019 roster. It won't be the end of the world if he ends his career elsewhere. There are two statues at Target field of guys that didn't end their career with the Twins.
  5. jkcarew
    You mean feet per second... This is a great example of bias based on what a player looks like. You assume (you are not the only one...not close to the only one) that these times are slow because these guys are so large. 26.9 fps is in the top half of speed for ML third-basemen. In fact, 26.9 is close to the average speed for MLB overall...all positions. (Incidentally, Vargas's time is easily in the top half for first-basemen.) Not that strait-line sprint speed has much to do with playing a quality 1B or 3B. https://www.mlb.com/news/sprint-speed-shows-fastest-at-each-position/c-238290228
  6. jkcarew
    Super nice write-up. Thanks. Concur with Dr. Wu that Hatcher was a fun player. Unorthodox in everything he did including his body language and facial expressions. Cut late in spring training in '87 when Kelly decided to give the left-field job to an acquisition from Giants...Dan Gladden. Needless to say, I didn't end up missing Mickey as much as I thought I would.
  7. jkcarew
    Agreed. That's why it wouldn't shock me that, when contemplating signing Dozier, it would cross the FO minds to consider whether Dozier could be moved to 3rd...assuming they love Gordon and see Mauer with a different role. I have no idea if that's a viable consideration at this point...but the bat plays there (currently anyway), and he's played a ton of professional baseball on the left side, including his first 83 games with the big club. I seem to recall that his move from SS to 2B was based on range, not arm. (I could be wrong.)
  8. jkcarew
    No. He. Can't.
  9. jkcarew
    I'm hoping Sano holds his own at 3rd defensively as he did last year. Offensively, it's an important year for him to show the ability to make the adjustments to reign in the K rate a bit. If that happens, his value goes through the roof.
  10. jkcarew
    Everyone complains that he's taking Mauer's or Morrison's or Sano's at-bats. It was always going to be difficult for Vargas to establish himself as an every-day guy with Mauer at 1B and Sano breaking in without a position. Last year would have been the year...but it didn't happen. His bad timing doesn't make him a great hitter, though. It just makes him unlucky. If the Twins let him go, I hope he gets that every-day opportunity at the next stop.
  11. jkcarew
    If it comes down to these two at any point... I'll give you thirteen million and two hundred guesses. (If you don't get it right, I'll give you another thirteen million two hundred.)
  12. jkcarew
    Kind of irrelevant, even if true, right? It's more about a reasonable expectation of WAR (or whatever) from 2019 - 2022, among other factors like roster construction. Look, I love Dozier. And I'd guess his career tail...at least offensively...won't be particularly steep. But, it seems reasonable to me for the Twins to want to see how 2018 plays out before they decide/commit on Dozier. Equally reasonable, IMO, for Dozier to decide to commit to going through the FA process. We'll see what happens.
  13. jkcarew
    It remains to be seen whether the Twins or Lynn did the misreading. And, while I would expect the Twins to be 'aware' of what Lynn wanted, I would almost never expect a club to match that with their initial offer. Especially, given how the market has been this off-season. It sounds like Lynn made the decision to not engage and negotiate based on the Twins initial offer. Time will tell how much of a 'low ball' that offer was.
  14. jkcarew
    Just because he's smaller doesn't mean he's more athletic. We'll find out.
  15. jkcarew
    I think this is a good point. I seem to recall that when Dozier was moved off of SS, the primary issue was range, not arm. Someone can confirm or deny. If that's the case, and the Twins find themselves with an opportunity to sign Dozier, but happen to love Gordon, Dozier's bat plays at 3rd (at least it has for the last few years).
  16. jkcarew
    Between now and next off-season (or the trade deadline) there will be a thousand posts/articles on Dozier's situation, along with 10 thousand interview questions about it. Both the writers and Brian will contradict themselves and each other countlessly. He's just a guy being advised by his agent and trying not to piss everyone off in the interim...like 99% of the others that have gone through this. The interesting thing to me...if you're thinking about signing Dozier, then you should be thinking about trading Gordon, right? Why would you make a bench player out of a 5th over-all draft pick that is still a top 100 prospect? You'd want to get something of more value than a utility infielder while you still had the change. So, IMO, the tricky part for the Twins will be getting decent value out of Gordon if they find themselves spending the money to keep Dozier. (This assumes that the Twins have already decided that Gordon is not an every-day MLB SS.)
  17. jkcarew
    True. Reputation matters...and in that regard, not many around the league would consider Santana an ace, even an the heals of his 2017 performance. And Jack Morris started game 1 of the ALCS and of the WS...not Kevin Tapani
  18. jkcarew
    You need good pitchers to get there. Once in the post-season, and offense can carry you...it's been done. But, I'll still take the 'ace'. BTW...Ervin Santana's ERA+ last year: better than Morris's in '91 (also, Morris had been considerably below-average the 3 previous seasons); way better than Blyleven's in '87; not nearly as good as Frank Viola in '87; not as good as Kevin Tapani's in '91.
  19. jkcarew
    But whose at-bats would Vargas's additional at-bats have come from? Those were his 23, 24, and 25 age seasons. There would have been rioting in the streets if those at-bats would have come from Mauer's at first. And as far as DH goes, you really don't want to stunt a young players defensive development that early by making him a full-time DH (and it's not like he was raking)...not to mention the fact that you were already violating that axiom by giving a lot of DH at-bats to Sano during those years. IMO, you can call it a failure of roster management, but it wasn't a failure of neglectful development, unless the argument is that they should have simply given him more AAA at-bats (which is what they ended up doing last year). I hope they trade/cut him as soon as possible for his sake. I'd be pretty surprised if it were a trade.
  20. jkcarew
    Fair enough. That makes sense when looked through the lens of how flipping them would be viewed by Polanco, the still-developing incumbent. So instead, I'll be slightly disappointed that Gordon was playing 2B while Gregorio Petit was playing SS. Anyway, we'll get the more definitive view over the first 20 games or so for Rochester...because that roster will have at least one experienced SS on it. Meanwhile his small number of AB's have been very encouraging IMO.
  21. jkcarew
    Slightly disappointing to see Gordon playing second in spring training...especially at the same time Polanco is at short. Seems like an early indication that they feel Polanco's defensive ceiling at SS is better than Gordon's. Given Polanco's limitations, I'd take that as a nail in the coffin in terms of hopes that Gordon will be a SS. Having said that, the small number of at-bats I've seen are very encouraging, and he may have the potential to be above average defensively at second (one would think given his overall athleticism?)
  22. jkcarew
    Nothing to see here. I would have questioned everything I thought I knew about Dozier as a competitor if he had decided to forgo free agency. I love him based on his offensive production and based on the way he plays. But, based on our organizational depth, I wouldn't expect the Twins to be super aggressive trying to sign him. Mauer is a completely different personality and in a completely different situation. I fully expect his approach to free agency to be different than Dozier's.
  23. jkcarew
    I've read this a few times here. And, no. He can't. There is no evidence to suggest the Twins would even consider it in an abolute emergency. He has exactly zero appearances in the OF over the last two seasons, and a total of 2 starts the year before that. 2012 was the last time a MLB team saw fit to give him even as many OF starts as Grossman had last year. Escobar would play OF (and has) before they would move Morrison out there.
  24. jkcarew
    I would guess that north of 80% of the starts for the 4th outfielder (assuming Kepler/Rosario are healthy) will come against left-handed starters. That would argue for Grossman over Granite. Although interestingly, Granite has a bit of a history of reverse splits. Still, I think the Twins will opt for Grossman's bat in this scenario. If there are injuries, then I think you look for Granite to be the replacement 'every-day' 3rd outfielder. Granite plays every day at Rochester, then if/when there is an OF injury with the big club, he gets called up. I think that will be the start-of-the-year plan. Kepler needs to make a significant step forward against left-handed pitching, or he will lose value for the Twins, including trade value.
  25. jkcarew
    Tip of the hat.
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