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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    His overall K % in 2018 is almost 40...no? Probably worse against RH pitching? SSS...agree he’s looked better than that with the Twins. A solid “we’ll see”...more intriguing than the options we were deploying...who warrants a good long chance because when he hits it, it lands on the other side of the fense.
  2. jkcarew
    Lots of thing to like and admire about Molitor, IMO. To me, a manager's value is primarily in two places: the demeanor/attitude of the team; and in-game decision-making (which includes lineups). The former is hard to assess and very dependent upon what information makes it's way to the assessor. My guess is he might be pretty decent in this arena...but not inclined to defend that...I'll not go there for now. The later is easier to assess/observe. I don't think Molitor is a good (say even top half of the league) in-game manager. I think he's gotten better. Do I think there are better over-all options out there? Yes.
  3. jkcarew
    I hope the FO does't fall in love with any of these guys. Austin is intriguing, but with his K-rate, he's right on the edge of Chris Carter'ing himself out of baseball. Cave strikes out a ton for a guy that figures to have middling power...and he's left-handed. I don't even pretend to know what Drake is at this point. These guys were better solutions that we were deploying...but are they going to move the needle for a contending team? Maybe. Likewise, the losses of guys like D. Rodriguez, R Rosario, and Chargois are not particularly offensive, IMO. There were legitimate reasons for choosing not to carry these guys. I'd put all of the above in the category of normal season-to-season roster shuffling noise IMO. You always win a few and lose a few.
  4. jkcarew
    Cave's K% is 31%. Grossman's is 22%. Just saying.
  5. jkcarew
    Kenny's has been pretty bad all year. He was OPS'ing .657 on August 7. Despite an insanely hot streak, he's at .729 currently. Rooker definitely slumping for the last couple of weeks. That was only his second HR since July 28. On the positive side, his walk rate has maintained and his K% has not ballooned. Two things noteworthy with Rooker lately. One, he has developed absurd home/away spits this year (in favor of home). Weird. Probably just SSS anomaly? Second, whereas in the first half of the season he seemed to have been 'converted' to a first-baseman...lately, he's been playing outfield significantly more than 1B. We'll see if Wiel's promotion changes things.
  6. jkcarew
    Also, Acuna had more than 500 PA at AA/AAA when the Braves pulled the trigger. And yes, Soto was a fairly significant risk, warranted given the desperate straights Washington was in regarding their playoff race. (Although, FWIW...what Soto was doing in small samples at A+ and AA were a whole 'nuther level as compared to even what Kiriloff is doing.)
  7. jkcarew
    Agree with the concept. Those trades were examples of good Terry Ryan. Not only because he was 'proactive' in looking for the opportunities, and got good (really great) value for Kielty and Buchanan....but because they made the correct choices in which pieces of the depth to trade vs keep. Bad Terry, proactively traded Hicks because he was sure about Buxton. Might want to be 'more sure' (at least AA sure?) about Kiriloff before we part ways with any of the major league pieces.
  8. jkcarew
    The other challenge is that he's a corner outfielder who's slugging .370 in 57 games at Rochester. For context, with the Twins this year: Grossman .365, Morrison .368, Adrianza .380, Mauer .358. Also, both Kepler and Cave are OPS'ing with the Twins better than Wade is with Rochester. I definitely don't want Wade not playing every day right now...so fine with him finishing the Rochester season. Would like to see him in September...but don't know if the roster math will make that practical.
  9. jkcarew
    But the IF in that last paragraph is a pretty significant if where we sit today...and that’s what the ‘life of luxury’ money is dependent on. And if he’s not, he’s out of baseball or a AAAA player. I’m not sure his camp wouldn’t be willing to look at relatively friendly extensions...maybe sooner rather than later. Turning it around...what IF his 2019 resembles in any way his 2018 either in health or performance?
  10. jkcarew
    I guess the question is, how many major-league at-bats do you sacrifice to get the extra year of control? For my money, I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice many at all. Buxton doesn't know how to hit major league pitching, and until that is figured out, the extra year of control doesn't have much value. First things first. He needs reps at hitting. After that, he needs more reps at hitting. And I'll hope that we even care about his service time down the road.
  11. jkcarew
    Agree that you can win championships with solidly/consistently average players...even at several positions. Also, I do think Max can be better than solidly average...but how much better is what is at the heart of this article. One of the central themes of the article (and an article that proceeded it) is that Max has been 'unlucky' with regard to batted-ball results. And that we could expect better results in the future based both on real (for lack of a better term) improvements he is making...but also based on his batted ball luck normalizing. I'm disagreeing with the later, is all. At 1500 career plate appearances, his BABiP has already 'normalized'...and it's a low number.
  12. jkcarew
    This article was written in the middle of the last/most recent road trip. On that road trip, Kepler posted a BABiP of .056 (1 for 18). If Max were to get 6 hits on his next 6 balls-in-play, he'd still be below (for the recent stretch) the 'normal' that is being suggested here as Kepler's inevitable destiny. OK...1 for 18 is bad luck. But, the idea that all batters will tend toward a .300 BABiP is a false narrative. Max's batter ball profile will need to change to get to the optimistic end of our hopes.
  13. jkcarew
    The advantage of identifying the tell is partly off-set by the fact that the batter, in looking for the tell, is compromising his focus/view of the release point.
  14. jkcarew
    This is not a crazy idea. But then, you're suggesting that, this off-season, the Twins sign two left-handed bats that can only play (from a practical standpoint) 1B. Because if they don't sign Joe, but sign Murphy to play 1B/DH...the governor will have to call in the National Guard.
  15. jkcarew
    I don't think anyone has been 'joyful'...at least regarding what this means for the Twins. But, I think one can be a bit joyful for the player, separating what it means for the Twins. Wasn't Stewart's fault he was drafted 4th and offered $4 1/2 million to sign. He could have given up...the 4.5 has been in his pocket for some time. But, he's been a grinder. Maybe an unlikely grinder...but a grinder nonetheless. So, I'm happy for him. We'll see what the future holds.
  16. jkcarew
    But most of those reasons (to go somewhere other than Rodney) all existed when they originally signed him, IMO. Doesn't matter. We agree that there are many legitimate reasons to trade Rodney at this point.
  17. jkcarew
    Agreed. It doesn't work like that. I will say the Rodney signing seems more and more strange in retrospect. If you liked him going into 2018, what don't you like about him going into 2019? Did they actually expect him to be better than he was? They shouldn't have. Seemed like a hedge signing at the time. "We'll get someone better at the deadline if we look to be serious contenders." To me, this trade is changing their mind...admitting mistakes. It's not like anyone else in the bullpen has stepped up to make Rodney redundant (at least yet). Although...I agree with the changing of the mind. Never like the signing in the first place.
  18. jkcarew
    Can't work up much of an opinion. Other than count me as one that did NOT think Rodney would fetch anything even remotely approaching a "near major-league ready" player. And he did need to be traded. So....lottery ticket.
  19. jkcarew
    otoh...Kimbrel's 4 blown saves came in 37 opportunities; Rodney's 6 in 31. So, that's actually pretty significant difference...and Kimbrel is no longer great. I know nobody wants to look at BS anymore...but the guys that blow them at a healthy clip never have the impressive underlying numbers either, as is/was the case with Rodney.
  20. jkcarew
    I'm also skeptical of the 'bad luck' theory in the case of Kepler. The data that drivelikejehu and JLease cite is just as real (and relevant) as the data called out in the article. Additionally, Max's hard-hit balls are distributed very predictably on the pull side. He's easy to defend. Having said that, he's improved on some aspects, and shows every sign of being the type of player that will continue to put in the work to continue to improve. That simple fact along with him still only in his age 25 season suggests that there will be plenty value there before it's all said and done.
  21. jkcarew
    Last night's home run was Rooker's first in about the last 9-10 games. But the things he needs to improve upon, keep improving. Encouraging. His on-base/walks continue to improve, and the K% continues to trend in the right direction. I agree, let's get him to AAA.
  22. jkcarew
    Good point. I never thought of it this way. We probably have 'certain long-tenured player' on a step-count.
  23. jkcarew
    I could not care less whether we win or lose these games. The W/L's at this point are less relevant than those of the minor league teams. I'm interested in seeing the individual performances of those that are likely to be in 2019 plans. To that end, I thought a few things were noteworthy. May looked encouraging. So did Sano. Two things happened in the 9th inning Sano at-bat that almost never happen with Sano. He was both looking for the breaking ball away ahead in the count...usually only looking FB in that situation...AND he seemed to consciously try to hit it to the right side of center. To me, he needs to take advantage of the low leverage games/at-bats remaining and keep working on this stuff and not worry about the HR totals, etc....almost as if he's still in the minors. Also, Garver was awful behind the plate again. I don't care (for now)...needs to play more.
  24. jkcarew
    (channeling my inner Chief).... Yes. Good questions. My absolute guess would be that they will leave Lewis at SS...almost no matter what...in the minors. My speculative theory being that the cream of the athletic crop, such as Lewis, can almost immediately transition from SS to CF...but not the other way around. And that when the bat is deemed ready, if SS is not an issue with the major league club, but CF is an issue...that they would not hesitate to make that move. Said a different way....keep the development focused on SS. Then when the bat is ready,...and or you get desperate because everyone else is hurt or failing...you (theoretically) would have both defensive options open. All we're asking is that Lewis be like Robin Yount.
  25. jkcarew
    I know, nobody knows, Where it comes and where it goes. I know, it's everybody's sin You got to lose to know how to win. - Steven Tyler (Boston prospect of the very early 70's; went on to a HOF career) Little know fact: the original lyric included the phrase "development is not linear"...but he couldn't get that lyric to work with the riff. I'd say Lewis's arrival will depend, in part, on how his development as SS goes...as it's possible his bat is ready before his glove is, in which case the CF/OF situation comes into play. Nevertheless, my guess is June 2020.
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