Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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That's a pretty fair take but on a more humorous note, wasn't Cameron the guy saying the Twins might be further away from contention than even the Reds this offseason? -
Possibly, but given Gimenez's play in a backup role (.734 OPS), it's pretty hard to get riled up one way or the other.
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Again, not down on Garver, just pointing out his relative weaknesses, which he does have. Not everyone is Joe Mauer and while catchers generally take longer to hone their defensive craft in the minors, we should also note that Garver is entering his prime as a hitter, which needs to be considered when evaluating his bat.
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Sure, he had an acceptable bat at most levels... for a catcher. He's been a fair amount better than that since the promotion to Rochester. And sorry, but I don't give much weight to what a guy did in Cedar Rapids when both his Ft Myers and Chattanooga numbers were pretty pedestrian. He accumulated ~930 plate appearances between those two levels. His bat was okay (again, for a catcher) but considering his age, not terribly impressive. That doesn't mean I'm down on Garver or anything, just pointing out that he has nearly 2,000 plate appearances in the minors and his numbers in the high minors weren't note-worthy until he hit Rochester.
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Well, yes and no. Since heading to Rochester, he's ~15 points higher in wRC+. That's not nothing. And this year, he has seen a respectable step forward in both power and discipline. But we're still at the sample size where his Rochester stats are heavily influenced by two months: one in 2016, and one this season. It's hard to get a read whether he's a slightly better player or just a slightly luckier player.
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Before now, his bat never profiled well enough to matter. He was a catcher or he was out of baseball. His small breakout this season probably forced a revaluation of what he might do as an MLB hitter (though the sample size is still quite small).
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Fun with Numbers: 2017 edition
Brock Beauchamp replied to diehardtwinsfan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is MiLB stuff but Nick Gordon has more XBH than he did in 2016 (33 vs 32), more BB (26 vs 23) in far fewer plate appearances (298 vs 493). -
I think we need to reel it in a bit with Granite. He might become a useful piece at some point but keep this in mind: Granite's breakout season in Rochester (.881 OPS) is identical to Byron Buxton's career MiLB OPS. Granite is having a nice season but we're basing an opinion on just 186 plate appearances where he has a BABIP about 60 points higher than his previous full seasons.
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Dunno about "good" prospects. I assume Gray will cost Gordon and Gonsalves/Romero. Gonsalves/Romero are decent, maybe even good, prospects. But Gordon was a good prospect six months ago. Now he's kinda looking like a great prospect. It depends whether you buy into his 2017 breakout. I'm not sure I do but he's going to be a top 30 prospect on off-season lists if he keeps rolling like he has this year. Is that a fair price for Gray? Maybe. I'd prefer someone with a bit more control than Gray but that offer is in the ballpark.
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Gibson had similar numbers for a longer stretch of play in 2015. That's my point. The sample size is still in questionable territory. Could Gray become the pitcher he was in the past? Sure, absolutely. Is he that guy right now? Of that, I'm not sure. Hence, skepticism. Gray, if any form of healthy, is at least a serviceable starter. He has the ability to be much better than that. Right now, he looks to be back to his former self but I'm going to need a lot more than 50 innings to pay for 2014-2015 Gray. And that's not even a slightly unreasonable opinion to have on the subject. I'm not sure why it's controversial that I've said multiple times that Gray is a great guy to target, I'm simply not willing to break open the farm system to get him based on his performance from two and three seasons ago.
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Absolutely. In no way do I mean to say Gray isn't a pretty good pitcher but he's a couple of years from his last #2 season. And his performance this season looks pretty good but he's still in SSS territory with an extreme home/road split. Like you said, a great buy low candidate but we need to consider who Gray is going forward. I'm skeptical he's ever going to be the 2014-15 Gray again and that's okay. It means the Twins might be able to get him for a reasonable price but it's unlikely he's going to be a savior... just a decent/good pitcher, something the Twins are in dire need of right now.
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Gray is definitely the kind of player the Twins should be targeting but only if the price is reasonable. Gray looks like a better pitcher this season but wasn't very good last year. His peripherals are outperforming his ERA but I'm wary of any pitcher who calls the Coliseum home for half his games, particularly one who has never relied on swing and miss stuff to succeed.
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Are we done jumping to conclusions on Falvey & Co. ?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Twinfan & Dad's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
No, but we can appreciate the process. Just as we can not appreciate what is happening in the bullpen right now. Neither instance makes Falvey/Levine a great/bad front office, but it warrants small cheers/grumbles. My problem mainly revolves around the making of grand, sweeping statements when we're a few months into their tenure. -
To be clear, my opinions are of Gonsalves and/or Romero, not their plethora of bullpen options. I don't understand what's happening with the bullpen right now.
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Are we talking about one guy here? And, be frank here, what has Gonsalves done to warrant a promotion? Before last night, he pitched games of 6.0, 5.0, and 5.0 innings. He has only six starts on the season, including last night. And all of this happened during the middle of the draft, when pretty much everyone involved has other matters on their mind. If Gonsalves spends another month in the minors, I'll be irritated as well. He should get a promotion soon but with everything else going on in this organization, are we really making a fuss about a guy coming back from injury who hasn't been able to average 6.0 IP per start in AA?
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I mean, that's fair, but there has to be some kind of opportunity cost at play here as well. You want to keep your MiLB clubs happy so you don't just throw darts at a board when acquiring org filler. Someone has to go out there, dig into the options, and spend the time making it all work. Whereas if you just wait a few weeks, the only thing you need to worry about is who to cut, not who to acquire. In the case of Gonsalves, I think the team might make an exception if he was destroying the league. But really, he's been good and only has six starts on the season. He's not even averaging 6.0 IP per start. He's also returning from injury. Is that a guy you spend energy on to make sure he jumps a level and reorganize some of your MiLB pieces while your entire organization is focused on something much more important (the draft)? I'm not sure it is. As we all know from our daily lives, some things simply don't get done in the here and now due to larger priorities at hand. If Gonsalves was truly forcing the issue, I could see more legitimacy in questioning why he's not in Rochester.
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Ah, okay. I could have sworn he spent two weeks on the bench the first time he was called up.
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Agreed. You need to net a pre-arb guy to give up Gordon.
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It's pretty commonplace under the new draft signing rules to keep your MiLB rosters largely in place until you begin inserting draftees into the system, forcing a bunch of players to slide up a level. I suspect we'll start seeing promotions in the next few weeks. And it's not as if Gonsalves has been destroying Southern League hitting. He had a nice start last night but went only 5.0 innings his previous two starts.
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To collate a bunch of posts about my comment, yes and no. Polanco was burning the options anyway but he often came to Minnesota, sat for a few weeks, and then was demoted again. That's not a useful development cycle, especially considering Polanco's age at the time. It's slightly different with Romero because he won't be sitting but I still have some of the same problems with the idea: if a guy isn't ready, he isn't ready. Romero doesn't even have a lot of time at Chattanooga yet, only 12 starts. His numbers look pretty good but aren't eye-popping. He's still only 22 years old. While one or two starts wouldn't likely kill the guy, things have a pretty high probability of getting ugly if he was facing MLB hitters. And while lots of prospects recover quickly and shrug off blatant failure, it can also set a guy back weeks or even months if the outings were truly disastrous. I just don't see enough upside in him starting right now to risk that situation.
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Not really. A pre-arb #3 pitcher is going to cost a lot. If that price is too steep for some, I get that.
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That would be my target as well. I'd want a decent #3 in return for Gordon (likely a top 30 prospect in midseason rankings) and Gonsalves (a fringy 100-150 prospect).
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Twins Throw Curveball With Draft Strategy
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
True. He was also playing in the FSL, a notorious pitching league. Change "2016 Gordon" to "2015 Gordon" and the point makes more sense. -
Indeed it is. Once Berrios and Mejia were promoted, the well went dry.
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This would be my first plan to shore up pitching. If you can't move Dozier, I'd consider the opposite: moving Gordon and Gonsalves/Romero for either an established MLB pitcher or someone on the verge of graduating to MLB. The latter would be more difficult, as a team that wants Gordon is unlikely to give up a pitching prospect.
