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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    They can probably pick up an acceptable free agent starter. Or they could trade Dozier. I later mentioned that I'm open to trading Dozier if it helps the 2017 squad. He's the closest thing to expendable the Twins have on the roster right now.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    What young guys? The Twins have zero legit starting pitching prospects in AAA and two decent, though unspectacular, guys in AA. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if neither of them throws a pitch in MLB this season because they're not ready. No one has been or will be blocked for the foreseeable future. The team is starting Nik Turley today, for crying out loud.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    .300 is an arbitrary number and doesn't mean much. In today's game, all batting averages are suppressed. As of today, there are only 27 qualified players in all of baseball with an average of .300 or higher. The Twins have two players in the top 50 in batting average, Sano and Mauer. But batting average doesn't tell us much on its own. The Twins are sixth in the American League in team OPS, which tells us a lot more about their offensive capabilities. They're a slightly above average offense with the ability to get into the top five in the AL when all is said and done.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Here's a weird one for you: Only ten teams in MLB have a .500 or better record.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing about luck is that there is no inevitable "counter-luck" to balance the season. The Twins have been moderately lucky, yes, but their BaseRuns record is 28-29 so it's not an extreme shift in either direction (and BaseRuns is a better metric than pythag, as it tries to measure a lot more than just pure run output). The Twins could play .500 ball the rest of the season (which is close to their BaseRuns output thus far) and challenge for the division and wild card deep into the season. One six week long hot streak from Brian Dozier and they can be quite a bit better than that, either winning the division or a wild card appearance. The Twins are a flawed team, yes. That's why I wouldn't break open the farm for an expensive rental. But, on the other hand, I'm not going to give up on a team with a legit shot at the postseason just because they're imperfect. Lots of teams are imperfect and go deep into the postseason. And none of this brings up the long-term PR hit you'd see from trading Santana and/or Dozier (though I'm more open to trading Dozier if it helps the 2017 squad). Baseball attendance lags by nearly a season. The Twins would be leaving literally millions of dollars on the table for 2018 by punting on the season and closing the year with a 78 win season versus an 85 win season and postseason contention.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins are still in first place. So, no, you do not trade from a position of weakness unless the return is so astounding good that you can't refuse the offer. And that is so unlikely to happen that it's not worth mentioning.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It won't be any use until next year but the best deal is to move to T-Mobile and get free MLB.tv every season. It's basically like getting a free month of your phone once a year if you plan on buying MLB.tv anyway. It doesn't hurt that T-Mo is the least ethically rotten carrier available, either.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. The more I've dug into Mauer's batting numbers, the more I shake my head in disbelief that anyone refutes his rapid decline was due to anything but the concussion. Sure, the guy lost .030 BABIP. But explain how he lost .050 batting average. Hint: the answer is in his batted ball profile. He stopped hitting the ball hard. It's almost as if his hand-eye coordination lost just a tick of its accuracy for some completely unknown reason. Anyone have any ideas how that could have come about?
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    My faith in Perkins' successful return has not moved from 0% in nearly a year. If someday he proves me wrong, great. Until that point, it will remain at 0%.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I believe Cleveland is the most likely to heat up and pull away but the Twins are the second-most likely to do it. Maybe even a close second. But something needs to happen with the pitching staff for that to happen. Maybe Mejia heats up and covers the rotation but I just don't see how the bullpen will be able to do it. Then again, bullpens are loony. Maybe someone like Wimmers strings together 40 magical innings and the bullpen powers through the season. Plenty of mediocre relievers have had stellar partial seasons in the past.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think it's whether he can do good things at the plate, it's whether he'll OPS at .500 and become a sinkhole in the lineup and such a detriment that it won't matter if he's Rickey Henderson on the basepaths and Willie Mays in the field, he'll be a very bad baseball player.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    It is hard to tell and while 2015 is a decent baseline to follow, the 2015 squad was good in May and wasn't impressive before or after that month. The 2015 squad opened May with a 12-11 record. Okay, so that's respectable. Not terribly impressive but respectable. But after closing out May with a 30-19 record, the 2015 squad went just 53-60 the rest of the way. It's entirely possible the 2017 squad will follow suit but without that extraordinary month of May (18-8), the 2015 team was pedestrian at best and slightly bad most of the time.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the systems are too down on the Twins. We're virtually 1/3rd of the way through the season and they haven't relinquished first place in over a month, I believe. But I'd still put the odds of them winning the division quite low, maybe 20%. 25% if I'm feeling generous.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Eddie has never been much of a stolen base guy so the impact will be marginal. But you're right that SB can't be added directly to SLG, as it's not as valuable. But the point that everyone continues to gloss over regarding Granite is that he's never been good with the stick. The guy has a lower career MiLB OPS than Rosario's career MLB OPS. And, again, they're just a year apart in age. That doesn't mean Granite can't be a serviceable MLB guy - probably from the bench at best - but expecting a positive result by replacing Rosario (or pretty much anyone currently on the Twins 25 man, when you get right down to it) is little more than a pipe dream at this point. Granite barely hit in Chattanooga. He isn't hitting much at all in Rochester. What on earth do people expect from him against MLB pitching?
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    The deviation from the cast episode is "New York, I Love You" and is one of the finest single episodes of television I've seen this decade. Another great episode from season two is the dating episode, can't recall its name.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, that's certainly possible but when comparing Rosario and Granite, we're talking about players with a full 120 point difference in MiLB OPS. Even if Granite improves a bit, it's unlikely he'll ever be a comparable player to Rosario. And polish or no polish, Rosario was playing in MLB as a 23 year old while Granite won't break into the majors until he's 25. Age isn't everything but in this case, the lack of age difference between the two players should be considered.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Zack Granite has a .656 OPS in Rochester. If you don't like Rosario's numbers, you'll be aghast at the numbers Zack will post against MLB pitching. And it's not as if Granite is some unpolished youngster. He's just 12 months younger than Rosario. Given how they're both capable defensively (maybe Granite has an edge, but it's not likely to be significant), I'm not sure what you expect to gain by replacing Rosario on a regular basis with Granite. It's more than likely you'd see a steep drop off by replacing Eddie with Zack.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Never mind the wind tunnel that tends to form when you have a long plaza leading all the way down the block. I don't know if that causes problems for lefties but not having a crowd barrier between the seats and the plate has an impact, either positive or negative.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't disagree with your point, I'm only saying that it's hard to judge without context, and right now the context is "the Twins pitching staff is terrible and Brian Dozier is a pull monster". Stabilize those two things and Target Field might be neutral to righties, not best in baseball.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not debating the legitimacy of your point but park factors are so nebulous. Combine 2016 Brian Dozier and the 2016 Twins pitching staff and it's not hard to see how Target Field led the league in RH power last season. My problem with park effects is that one offense and one pitching staff plays every game in the stadium. I've long wanted to see someone try a correlation park effect: judge the Yankees not only by how they play in Target Field but adjust that by how they play elsewhere and create one giant matrix that webs into all teams and all stadiums. Then try to isolate overall play in a single stadium, using all other stadiums as comparison.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    In May of 2017, Joe Mauer posted his highest month-by-month OPS (.973) since his concussion, when he posted a 1.026 OPS in May of 2013.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    While working yesterday, I started half-watching Master of None. The first season is very good. The second season is amazing. At least half the episodes are great, the rest are good. And each great episode has this crazy, experimental flavor that defies placing the show in a single genre. The creators play around with story mechanics and take episode-long detours away from the main cast at points. It's fascinating stuff and way smarter than I expected.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, Jepsen would have pretty much saved the 2015 season... had he been acquired a month earlier. The 2017 Twins have more options. They can try to build from within, possibly rush a few guys, but there are moves to be made before we even hit July, much less July 31st.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not even June yet. The first moves they should make are from within. If those fail, then go for outside help. Again, not even June yet. Nothing is available in trade anyway. It's great to talk about making an early move to shore up problems but an "early move" is July 1st, not June 1st.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    It's this, removing the quotation marks: "["media"]"Your YouTube link"["/media"]"
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