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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Same here. I want more than another Santana if the Twins dip into free agency. My point was whether Verlander would actually be better than that $13-16m guy, not whether the Twins should pursue that guy in FA. Verlander is marginally better than Santana right now, who is not only a $13-16m guy but also closing in on the back of his contract.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    The huge risk is that Verlander suddenly starts pitching like he's 35 years old and the Twins have no payroll space to resolve that problem. It's a mid-term problem and only really affects 2018 (after which Mauer comes off the books and opens payroll space) but the Twins' window might only be 2-3 seasons, at which point you're closing the door on 33% or more of your contention window. Whereas if you go pick up another decent pitcher for $20m per year over 4-5 seasons, you're getting the front end of that contract during your contention window, a time when that pitcher is likely 29-31 years old. Every pitcher is a risk but the front of a contract is less risky than the back.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not against mortgaging the future, my sticking point is whether Verlander is the guy you choose to do it. We both agree the Twins need to spend money and plug holes.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins should definitely spend money. The question to me is this: Will Verlander actually be better than a mediocre $13-16m pitcher over the next two seasons? That's what is driving my reluctance. Verlander's fWAR is marginally better than Santana this season and I'm already worried about Santana going forward. But if you can get Verlander for a reasonable price, have at it. He'll definitely add value the final month of this season and the Twins currently hold a postseason spot. But we need to acknowledge how much a Verlander acquisition will hamstring the front office this offseason. Even if they increase payroll by $25m, that only leaves them ~$10m to acquire other players at positions of need.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, he looks good right now but two years ago, he looked cooked. He's at the age where a sudden drop off in velocity shouldn't come as a surprise. And that's not factoring in the increasing likelihood of a 35 year old pitcher getting hurt at any time. In short, age is a concern for any pitcher in his mid-30s. Maybe Verlander is a special case but any offer for a 35 year old pitcher should factor in his age, especially a pitcher owed $55m over the next two seasons. Again, I'm not against pursuing Verlander but the price would have to be cheap or I'd wait until the offseason and target a pitcher at least half a decade younger than Justin. Because if Justin ages over the offseason, the Twins are screwed in 2018. Add Verlander's contract to payroll and the Twins have maybe enough left over for a good reliever. That's it. Acquiring Verlander means punting on pretty much every other roster spot this offseason.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Huge risk but I don't see the huge reward. Sure, it's possible Verlander returns to 2016 form but he has been that pitcher once out of the past four seasons. He's going to be 35 years old next season. With that said, I'm not entirely against acquiring the guy but he's probably not a 4+ WAR pitcher at this point in his career. The Twins' offer should reflect his current performance.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    From a lineup that is one of the youngest in the league (are they still the youngest?), that's an impressive feat. This is the kind of lineup that could have no weaknesses in 2018-19. Two-thirds of the lineup is 25 or younger and they're all coming into their own. It's like the Royals of 2013-14 except they're actually good at hitting the baseball.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    A vastly underrated reliever who doesn't get nearly the credit he deserves.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... Given the modern game and Buxton's defense, a 1.000+ season would vault him into the argument of "greatest season of all time". So no. I'll be happy with anything over .800 and thrilled with anything over .850.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I entirely agree, which is why I said I wouldn't retain Gibson. But there are five weeks left in the season. Maybe he has something to show us. Unlikely, but possible.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    See, I would have targeted Sano first because he had a higher floor. Had Buxton started out his career with a .700 OPS, then maybe I would have gone after Buxton first.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem with those contracts is that they're a massive risk if the guy washes out of baseball or vastly underperforms. Buxton looked close to broken for awhile there and even a "cheap" eight year deal would end up paying him $15-25m per season at the end of the deal. The days of the Longoria contract are over, I think. You can get a guy on the cheap right off the bat but you can't get him that cheap anymore.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Gee had 22.2 innings pitched with the Twins in August, including a start just four days ago. And I was speaking of Melville, I simply forgot he spent so long in the minors because he's Melville and entirely forgettable.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I think plenty of teams would have made that move if their rotation (and pitching in general) was in as dire shape as the Twins was at the time. And Colon isn't the only guy they picked up, he's just the one who stuck.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe that was true under the old front office but we have no indication the new front office will follow suit.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins have a lot of depth at the back of the rotation. I think they should use 2018 to figure out which portion of that depth will stick. On top of Santana, Berrios, Mejia, and Free Agent Pitcher X they have the following: May Hughes Gonsalves Romero Enns Littel That's enough to get through a season, IMO. And that's not including Gibson, should they retain him. I wouldn't but there's still five weeks left in the season. He could show something.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The way this is playing out for the Royals is pretty much perfect for the rest of the ALC. They held on to their expiring assets as they made a run at the deadline but are now steadily drifting out of the race. They're not going to be very good for quite some time.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    We're joking about Colon, right? No one actually wants him holding down a rotation spot in 2018, do they? This is a joke thread, surely... Colon has helped this team quite a bit. That's great. But the 2018 Twins need to add someone at least as good as Ervin Santana, if not better.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Mauer has a flat swing. Is this news?
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    It's hard to call the pitching staff worse. Runs per game are up .2 this season and that brings the number will into the margin of error for FIP (which isn't to be relied upon as a direct translation of ERA anyway). The pitching staff is close to the same as last year, IMO.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Thirdly, startups are not a good comparison point, as they operate under a ridiculous business model that will collapse at some point: Offer a complementary service, accrue an assload of debt, and then sell to a large tech firm before your investment capital runs dry. Very few startups offer a robust enough service to stand on their own in the long run (Uber, Dropbox, et al). The goal of the average startup is to be bought out, not stand on their own. Which makes any comparison to a standard business model a little inaccurate.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Increase in asset valuation only matters if you sell (or take a loan against it). The Pohlads don't seem interested in either option. And franchise valuation has virtually no correlation to payroll or a winning team. Spending more on payroll isn't the same as Amazon accruing debt to reinvest in itself over and over again because reinvestment pays off down the road if done well. Payroll... doesn't. It burns through itself year over year, leaving no real benefit past the occasional World Series trophy.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not really sure I want the Twins to dip into that end of the free agency waters, but... Greinke was signed by Arizona Scherzer was signed by Washington Shields was signed by the Padres Arizona and Washington are marginally larger markets than Minnesota but they're still mid-market teams. San Diego is a comparable size to Minnesota.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I suppose it depends on whether all contending MLB teams still have a competent 2B. That could drive Dozier's asking price down into the territory where it makes sense for the Twins. Though I still lean away from the extension if things remain as they are. A lot depends on Polanco and Gordon.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    This is the only thing that makes sense to me.
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