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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Dozier is opting for free agency for the same reason he refused to sign a contract extending into his free agency seasons: he wants to test the market and decide where he plays next season. The question isn't whether Dozier is more valuable than Polanco or Gordon, it's whether Dozier is worth $60m+ over four seasons and the opportunity cost that brings with it (namely, the Twins badly need pitching yet have $15m or so less to spend on it next season). If Gordon is a .750 OPS player with better defense (and he'll almost certainly be better defensively than Dozier is now) at $500k a season, that leaves the Twins a lot of money and options going into next season.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    If you want to see the young kids play, you have to let them play at some point. And Garver may have been ready last Opening Day. It's time for him to sink or swim.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Not necessarily, depending how you weight prospects (projection vs. results). And I always twist up these listings but I recall that MLB.com leans a bit toward the results side of things. And Gonsalves isn't a terrible #3, as he's a relatively high floor, low ceiling mid- to back-rotation guy. But I'm not particularly fond of MLB.com rankings in the first place (not for that reason, just in general).
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The old front office only played the cost certainty card with Dozier, right? Unless I'm forgetting someone... And Brian Dozier was a bit of a peculiar situation, being on the wrong side of 25 with a radically different profile than when he was drafted or even played in AAA. It made some sense to lock Dozier in for his arb seasons when he openly said he wouldn't go longer than that. Buxton is an entirely different situation, one where you don't lock him up unless you get free agent seasons added... and I wouldn't budge from requiring one guaranteed free agent season with an option for a second. But I'd be willing to nudge the guaranteed money way higher to get those two seasons... Like $50-60m guaranteed, not including the option year.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Falvey and Levine are doing exactly what they should be doing in this situation... nothing. The Twins have a lot of moving pieces right now and a few of them are in the middle infield. - Is Gordon going to be a MLB regular and will he prove it in 2018, or will it take longer than that? - Is Polanco a legit bat? - Is Polanco a legit shortstop? - Is Brian Dozier going to show a noticeable decline in his age 31 season? None of those questions have answers in March of 2018. So you sit back, wait, and see if you have a few answers in July of 2018 or maybe even October of 2018. Then you decide what to do.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Cleveland is certainly better than the Twins on paper but weirder things have happened in baseball than a team like Minnesota claiming a division title over a team like Cleveland. Cleveland could see a couple of key injuries or maybe the Twins just step up and take the season series 12-7. All it might take is a lopsided season series. What are the odds of that happening, 15-20%? Dunno, but it's not nothing.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    You may be reading a bit more into those comps than necessary. Outside of Boone and Valentin - both of whom had good seasons well into their 30s - Dozier is already ahead of everyone on that list in career WAR, despite Brian not having his breakout season until age 26. I mean, it doesn't even make sense to have guys like Weeks on that comp list, as Weeks entered the majors in his early 20s and was basically cooked at age 28.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem is that Rickey's homers were his third most powerful offensive weapon. The first was that ungodly .401 career OBP, followed by swiping bags at will. It's really not the biggest deal in the world that Dozier leads off, but it's leaving runs on the table over the course of a season and that's always a bad idea if you can prevent it from happening. I don't think that can really be debated.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Huh, I always think of Meche giving away more than $12m but I suppose you're right. He only walked away from his last season, didn't he?
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    True, I always think of him having down years every couple of years but he had a 4-5 year stretch there where he was very good, he just had some injuries mixed in.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect most analysts would refer to Cueto as a #2 as well. This board doesn't form its opinions in a vacuum. Look at Cueto's numbers. Outside of a couple of stellar seasons, he's a full step down from what most people consider "aces": Greinke, Bumgarner, Hernandez, Strasburg, et al. He's simply not in the class of those pitchers, who generally sit with a 3.00-3.50 ERA/FIP, 8-9 K/9, etc. And that's not even mentioning otherworldly pitchers, mainly Kershaw.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    The 2005 White Sox had Buerhle - a pretty fringy ace - and a bunch of guys who pitched way out of their depth that season or were in the middle of a decent two year stretch of pitching. And Buerhle was pretty bad in the 2005 postseason, posting an ERA close to 5.00. Dunno if that team really qualifies as not having an ace but their only legit "ace" candidate didn't help them win the World Series that season.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It's March 4th. No veteran will or should be cut for the next couple of weeks. If Hughes is still ineffective later in March, then we talk about what to do.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it's more of a straight-up fight than you're implying. Mejia started 25-ish games last season and did okay for himself. The team is coming off an 85 win season and postseason berth. I don't think the front office is going to give the advantage to veterans like the old front office did so often.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Polanco was a more highly regarded prospect, had a better MiLB career, and didn’t luck his way to MLB success as Santana did with his .400 BABIP. And Spring Training stats just don’t matter.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    There's really nothing comparable between Odorizzi and Pelfrey/Nolasco.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Polanco had a .723 OPS last season. You're predicting regression from that number?
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    When you hit 40 homers and have a competent lineup behind you, it's hard not to score 100 runs. But would you rather seen Dozier score 100 and drive in 80 or score 80 and drive in 110? Because his profile is a guy who can drive in a massive number of runs if he had guys like Polanco and Mauer in front of him in the lineup.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Six of one, half dozen of the other. Both parties are at fault, IMO.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    You heard opposite projections about them, that they’d finally normalize their ERA DOWN to their FIP. Odorizzi has the opposite “problem”. His FIP was way higher than his ERA last season.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno man, JAWS is a pretty rad stat that tackles something no one else really tried to do because it’s post-career based. I like it a lot.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The only guy I take the over on is Dozier. Sano would also be a gimme if not for all the injury and off-field issues.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    The most unfortunate thing about the Sanchez signing was its timing, and that's not really fair. Had it come after the Odorizzi trade, we all probably mumble "okay, that makes sense" and get on with our days. Because the Sanchez signing is the type of low risk, decent reward that mid-market teams should pursue. If you see a guy who has the stuff and ability to rebound into being a productive player and can be had on the cheap, give it a shot. There's so little to lose and quite a bit to gain. The 2012-2015 Twins needed a lot more Sanchez-type signings and a lot less Correia-type signings.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed on the high. I'd be happy with 25 from Morrison, 10 from Mauer, 10 from Castro. That's 13 home runs difference right there, never mind guys like Escobar that may struggle to hit 15, much less 18.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    From what I've seen of most analytic studies, they agree with you on this. I can't remember the exact order - they seem to vary slightly based on specific analysis - but your best hitter doesn't hit first in the order for the very reason that the point of the game is to score runs and it's hard to drive in runs if inferior hitters follow your best hitter. The leadoff man should be one of your better hitters but only third-ish best in the lineup, IIRC.
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