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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I honestly have no idea what to think of Sanchez. He has lost a bit of velo but nothing to the degree of, say, Hughes (~2mph for Sanchez, more like 3-4mph for Hughes). He's only 34 years old, which isn't ancient. Unlike Hughes, if he is able to gain back even 1mph of velocity, he has the ability to rebound pretty significantly. But I have no idea what caused the loss of velocity and whether it's anything that can ever rebound. I'm interested in seeing what happens, but not particularly bullish on anything good coming from the signing.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Given how Gibson made an actual, trackable change in his approach late last season, I think he's almost a given for the rotation. More than Sanchez, anyway.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    This seems really optimistic. First, it requires extreme team-wide health we simply cannot expect and it predicts very little regression from some players who are likely to regress (Escobar and Rosario, for example). I'd be *very* happy if they crossed 220. I figure something around 210-215 is pretty likely unless things go horribly wrong.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    His final year of arbitration is 2019 so the Twins can keep him if they want him.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I couldn't care less if Grossman said he didn't need Spring Training at all to get into a rhythm. Athletes say stupid crap all the time, it's part of their ego and desire to win. This is a really pointless thing to get riled up about.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Huzzah! I looked a few days ago and they hadn't announced anything yet. Thanks for the update.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    My first thought as well. Dozier refused to budge from buying out a year of free agency when he signed his last contract (which was the right decision given his age and shows faith in himself, a good thing for a player to have). So why should the Twins bend over backward to accommodate an extension when it's so obvious he prioritizes free agency? I don't blame either side for their actions.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    These two statements don't really jibe with one another. If Dozier's market is so depressed, he shouldn't need to give the Twins a discount, as they're already getting him rather cheaply. But I think people are overstating this offseason a bit. JD Martinez is a masher but he's either a terrible outfielder or a DH, which suppresses his value enormously (despite OPSing up to 200 points higher than Dozier, his WAR over the past 3-4 seasons has been similar to Brian). And that guy got $110m from the Red Sox. He's a couple of years younger than Dozier but that means Dozier should be able to easily command $60m in a bad market, more like $80m or more if the market stabilizes next season. He's not going to be cheap.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Eighth in the AL with a .744 OPS. Pretty much smack-dab in the middle of the league against lefties. Fourth in the AL with a .777 OPS agains righties. Those are pretty solid splits, really.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but the Twins have some pitching help on the way in the next year or so. That will counteract some of the offensive numbers lost if/when Dozier goes to another team. Plus, Polanco/Dozier is not a particularly good middle infield. Gordon/Polanco should be better in that regard.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Nunez had a full extra season of control before free agency, though.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Your Dozier hatred continues to amuse me. Jay Bruce: 31 years old, 5806 PA, 20.3 fWAR, 18.9 rWAR past 3 year WAR total: 4.2 rWAR Brian Dozier: 31 years old, 3770 PA, 20.8 fWAR, 22.9 rWAR past 3 year WAR total: 13.4 rWAR Come on, those numbers aren't even close.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I’ve been very down on Tampa’s offseason but that’s a different subject: process vs execution.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Steamer isn't always right. Sure, Gomez may definitely regress but if he enters the deadline with a 1.5 WAR and another solid season to follow up his 2017 season (2.3 fWAR), he'll net a pretty good prospect in return. And if he stumbles again and returns to being a replacement level player, oh well, that's the risk of signing older guys on the cheap that you plan to flip mid-season. Gomez only had one kinda bad season - 2015 - and is only going into his age 32 season. This is the kind of deal rebuilding teams should make, the kind of deals the 2012-2015 Twins did not agree to often enough.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Going from memory, the Twins front office guaranteed money to six players this offseason: Reed, Odorizzi, Morrison, Rodney, Duke, and Sanchez. The number of seasons these players spent with either the Cleveland or Texas organizations: zero. edit: Oops, forgot Pineda. That's seven players and zero seasons with either Cleveland or Texas.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    After the Morrison acquisition, the chances of signing Napoli approached zero. I don't understand the consternation over the guy.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    In my opinion, they should get bonus points for doing all they did so ridiculously cheaply. They added what, six players, for around $20-25m? That in itself is impressive, as three of the players are quite good (Reed, Odorizzi, Morrison). And I'd still like to see them take a swing at Cobb/Lynn, though I think that is increasingly unlikely, as it has been reported the front office doesn't care for the profile of either player (perhaps the *only* legitimate reason to pass on them).
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, the first step of a rebuild is to move your young, good players in trade and replace them with old, flippable players to be a warm body because you still have to play the games. I'm entirely underwhelmed with the Rays offseason but they're not wrong in this part of the approach.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that Morrison wasn't my first choice but I think it came down to "get a $5m player at $4-5m or get a potential $10-12m player in Morrison at $5.5m." I think the decision made itself in that situation.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    While I'm encouraged by 91, I also know better than to trust a Spring Training gun too much.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Hahah, well played.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, we should all be thrilled if Morrison crosses 25 homers. I don't expect 38 but if he can post somewhere in the 25-30 range, this contract is an absolute steal.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I don't see them cracking the top half of baseball unless two things happen: 1. Berrios improves significantly. I think the chances of this happening are actually pretty reasonable. 2. One of the castoffs or prospects comes out of nowhere and posts an ERA under 4.00 for the season. It could be Gibson, Sanchez, Hughes (lol), or Gonsalves. I think the chances of this are pretty low and I'd be happy with a 4.50 ERA from any of those guys and thrilled with anything that approaches 4.00.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Twins finished fifth in scoring last season. If the lineup shakes out as expected and Morrison is good again (.800+ OPS), they can easily be a top three offense. This lineup doesn't only have the chance to be good, they can be dominant. Remember that despite the good play of guys like Buxton and Polanco in the second half, they only ended up being somewhere around league average with the bat at the end of the season. We could see some regression from guys like Dozier and Mauer but that regression can be absorbed and the lineup still improves overall behind more steady play from Polanco, Buxton, Kepler, and Sano.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    What the Rays are doing isn't quite like the Twins, as they let Morrison walk, Longoria didn't bring back much in return, Dickerson was traded for a really underwhelming return, and they received a pretty light return for Odorizzi as well. They moved a ton of talent and picked up a few decent prospects but I don't think they managed to net a single consensus top 100 guy the entire offseason (Arroyo is missing from several lists). That's pretty ugly.
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